yossa6133

Nick Mordin had a system for 2yo in soft ground and it went something like this- when the ground is soft or heavy back the horse with most runs where the rest of the field has had few or no runs.  Last night i identified the 620 at windsor as one such race to be interested in (ish) although there are a few in the field with more runs than i would like the fact that Mullins Beach has shown form on soft ground and is getting so much weight from the others it is well worth a bet was 25/1 now around 12/1 the problem today is that last night the going was good to soft but today it is described as good puts me off a tad because that tells me it is drying so i am hoping for a bit of a deluge because my money is already down, as i have 25/1 and it is now around 12/1 i could cash out for more than i staked (bit of profit) but to micro manage bets to me is alien so i will let it run.

Spot on again. All the way out to 9/4, they seemed very confident the runner up was going to win (4's into 11/8)!

Ayr 2:30
Golden shot 
win
travels to Scotland minus Luke Morris as this is an apprentice race.
Yard’s only runner here and this horse drops back in trip and runs down in class from debut run at Leicester where ability was shown in the early stages. ( won by now 85 rated perlando)
has gone through the usual metamorphosis since the mandatory three sprint runs out the back to classy middle distance runner with an unscalable mark and won twice very easily .
Did not appreciate step up in trip latest and given a long break. If sent to the front early enough could run away with things here. A drifter today and could go off a nice price.
 
 
the saver is a reverse forecast with two auld lads.
golden shot to win by
2+ lengths @ 100/30
Golden shot to win
golden shot/ two auld pals
reverse forecast 
entered up multiple times this week and a win here means no penalties in those entered affairs . Has already bolted up eased down under a penalty. 
if Prescott has relatives up here or wants to post a letter cheaply ,then he has another reason to come, but sends one horse on a 750 mile round trip.

I usually lose interest after the first week but will put a team in 😆
Team name: The Roosters
Manager name: Sean Fahy

Pretty Boy Floyd                        -      4 15 Ayr/                  1/40th  of a  pt  ew        20/1   

Beverly. 
Single. 
8.00. Angel De Luz      7/1
stk 5.00    rtn 40.00
Double. 
5.55. Airman        13/8
8.30. Solar Joe         7/1
stk 6.00    rtn 61.00
Good luck all. 

Ballinrobe 5:10
Magnetic North
win
dropped into a claimer again for new connections, this consistent handicapper has found he is shooting fish in a barrel at this level. Has won his last two by a total of nine lengths.
Carries the same conditions as before 10-2 must be the ceiling , Adam caffery takes another five off. They stop losing at some stage but there looks to be more just yet.

In theory I should have placed 48 points today (4 x 12).  You are right I am scared about upping the ante with my bets.  ATM I am betting with RW profits which were around 40 points at the start of the day.  @richard-westwood has changed tack today by arranging his bets so as to make the same profit whichever horse wins.  He has not done this before.  He usually has straight amounts on each horse.  There is nothing wrong with what he is doing but I hate putting extra money on short-priced favourites; this is usually a bad idea and when I have tried this in the past I have built up losses.  Hence I just had a cover bet on the horse and hoped his other selection would win. He was unlucky with Spirit Catcher as the horse got carried out by a riderless horse.  I make it that he lost -30.29 points today.  I lost -7.07 points (should have been -8.07 but I forgot to back Meisher to place).  I suppose I'm a bit like the cowardly lion in The Wizard of Oz who sought courage.  I didn't want to squander my 40 points profit in one day so please forgive me

I'm not into racing podcasts but I would definitely listen to one co-hosted by Zilzalian and The Equaliser. Could be racing's Siskel and Ebert.

450 ayr 
Darbucks   8.0 5/2 
Jkr cobbler   7.7 
These 2 reoppose with darbucks much better off weights and with perfect conditions he should make a bold bid ....price isn't great so I'll try 4pt win darbucks

No flat racing so a day off for me
Only bet will be Lance Stroll podium finish in the snore fest formula 1, superboost 8/13 to 1/1

Nothing much to do today
2.35 NAbb Secret Sauce 1 pt win at 7.20 (A hurdles newcomer that has won on the flat and is in good hands for its jumps debut) My PL Nap on a poor day's racing

Not sure how Savethelastdance has won that, looked beat for all money.

Not bad! Hope you've got some multiples on the go.

Skybet have this at 11/10.

Race 1
Not a strong looking maiden. Field Of Lights is odds on fav and on his hurdles debut in 2021 when he was a close 3rd I can see why, but he was well beaten on his first hurdles run since when 4th at Hamilton. Possibly the better ground might help, but he's won on a heavy track before. He did run well when 3rd on the flat a week ago so does come here in good heart. I'm going to have a small bet on Resolutions though she jumped well in her  hurdles trial last time. She ended up winning it although she was asked to quicken up after the last unlike the 2nd who had been well clear, but I still thought it was a nice effort and it would be no surprise if she was to improve on her flat form for a trainer who is good with this type of horse.
Resolutions 0.5pts @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred
Race 2
Dashing Willoughby is back over hurdles having run in a good race at Flemington a week ago, but he was well beaten again. He does seem to be going backwards over hurdles as well having finished a good 2nd on debut at Hamilton, but he was then 3rd at Warrnambool and followed that up with a 31L 5th at the same venue. All 3 races were on a Heavy 10 so I don't think that was a factor, but he probably will enjoy the better ground here.
I'm going to side with Praise The Power though who has been more consistent over hurdles so far. He was a good 3rd over course and distance back in May and then was 4th not far behind Dashing Willoughby at Hamilton. He then had a break of 5 weeks before being beaten a length by The Rattlin' Bog at Warrnambool which was a good effort in the context of this race. He has the ability to win a maiden hurdle and it could well be this one. Once Were Lost isn't without a chance, but he's not run for a long time and might just need it, but his trials have been decent.
Praise The Power 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair
Race 3
That's Incranibull did well to beat Platinum Spirit last week in a maiden and that built on his 2nd on hurdles debut. He has a chance here. Frankenstar was 2nd on the same card in the BM120 Hurdle where the race ended up being every bit as close as it looked like on paper. They are the two dangers to the selection who is King's Charisma. He's been very consistent over hurdles and was 2nd to Frankenstar in a maiden at Hamilton back in May. He then won at Warrnambool before running a solid enough 3rd in the winner of 1 at Warrnambool which was won by Bedford, who of course won the big hurdle last week. This is easier and it looks a good chance for him.
King's Charisma 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred
Race 4
It was a hell of a performance from Mighty Oasis to win the Thackeray at Warrnambool last time where he just got the better of Rockstar Ronnie in a great battle down the straight. It was hard to know where that performance came from because he was stuffed in a maiden chase prior to that. If he can repeat his run last time he's a chance. Roland Garros was the BM120 on the same card when he led all the way, but I do think the front runners were favoured on the jumps course that day. He is a good horse though, but I'm not sure he should be heading the market.
He was set to run here against Elvision a month ago when the meeting was called off and I put Elvision up as a bet at 7/4, yet now he is a much bigger price and I have no idea why. He was never going to win the Thackeray because the hedge fences at Casterton is where he produces his best and he's now won 5 times round here. He's even better off at the weights than he would have been a month ago and whilst Roland Garros is probably the best horse he has come up against I strongly believe Elvision should be the market leader so I rate him a strong bet at the odds.
Elvision 3pts @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred
 

Not sure how Savethelastdance has won that, looked beat for all money.

4.00
Cartmel
ensel du perch 
win
bandit d’nay
each way
 
 

ITV says it peaked at 1000/1 in run in, lol

Cartmel
2.15
Kinbara 
To win by 10+ lengths @ evens.
very smart gelding who is a winning pointer, has run in three bumpers including a grade 1 at Liverpool.
Wide margin winner of a maiden hurdle at Wexford faces three rivals here , two who seem weak and a Gordon Elliott winning pointer who rates the main danger jeepydoff meel.
kinbara the only runner confirmed to get the trip under rules and should be ok in the heavy conditions running downhill at the finish.
a little green over the hurdles, but good speed on the ground and looks set for novice fencing next year.
Long odds on, so the winning distance bet the only way in.
 

Posted up an L15 and Acca on the Daily for 2 pts
Phewww! @richard-westwood's gone to town today with his selections. I truly hope he has a good day
I have backed them as follows:
3.15 M/R Franckly De Berlais 2 pts win at 6.8, La Domaniale 1 pt ew at 14/1 6p, Presentandcounting 1 pt ew at 20/1 6p
3.35 Nb Relief Rally 1 pt win at 2.46 and Son Of Corballis 1 pt win at 9.2
5.05 Rip Spirit Catcher 2 pts win at 5.5. Carolus Magnus 1 p ew at 20/1 5p and Copper And Five 1 p ew at 20/1 5p
5.25 Nm final Watch 2 pt win at 3/1 with Betfred, Nizaaka 1 pt ew at 12/1 with Bet365 and Meisher 1 pt ew at 25/1 4 p Skybet
Total stakes = 22 points today

Went for Born Famous for the Summer Plate last night but the price has halved now.
Showed very little in Ireland in 10 races...then comes over here and wins 4 in a row. The Aintree win over hurdles looks good form with the front 2 pulling clear and the runner up winning her next 2 races. Didn't beat much at Perth but finished full of beans and there could be loads of improvement to come. Lovely low weight, Cobden booked and money has come.
 
 
Wins. Must have been very well handicapped as she was tailed off most of the way after Cobden seemed to be asleep at the start.

Went for Born Famous for the Summer Plate last night but the price has halved now.
Showed very little in Ireland in 10 races...then comes over here and wins 4 in a row. The Aintree win over hurdles looks good form with the front 2 pulling clear and the runner up winning her next 2 races. Didn't beat much at Perth but finished full of beans and there could be loads of improvement to come. Lovely low weight, Cobden booked and money has come.
 
 
Wins. Must have been very well handicapped as she was tailed off most of the way after Cobden seemed to be asleep at the start.

Went for Born Famous for the Summer Plate last night but the price has halved now.
Showed very little in Ireland in 10 races...then comes over here and wins 4 in a row. The Aintree win over hurdles looks good form with the front 2 pulling clear and the runner up winning her next 2 races. Didn't beat much at Perth but finished full of beans and there could be loads of improvement to come. Lovely low weight, Cobden booked and money has come.
 
 
Wins. Must have been very well handicapped as she was tailed off most of the way after Cobden seemed to be asleep at the start.

Went for Born Famous for the Summer Plate last night but the price has halved now.
Showed very little in Ireland in 10 races...then comes over here and wins 4 in a row. The Aintree win over hurdles looks good form with the front 2 pulling clear and the runner up winning her next 2 races. Didn't beat much at Perth but finished full of beans and there could be loads of improvement to come. Lovely low weight, Cobden booked and money has come.
 
 
Wins. Must have been very well handicapped as she was tailed off most of the way after Cobden seemed to be asleep at the start.