yossa6133

That’s better I feel  like sporting Sam again. It’s been a tough month.
 
already advised 1840
galway
teed up
win
shajack
each way

@The Equaliser
450 ayr 
Bulls,aye 8.0 12 10 15 
Cant stop now  7.9 12 14 20 
Chinese spirit  7 .6 15 14 15 
Very trapped race ...can't stop now has the highest class rating on most recent flat start but has running over jumps so can't rate on recent form .....its too open for me 
 

Hunting Percival 2:45 Newton Abbot (9/2). Wide open race but I thought this one did well to recover from a bad error with a circuit to go last time. Step up in trip should suit and has drifted to a decent price.
 
Bizarre, never went a yard, possibly just hates Harry Cobden for some reason as he did the same thing when he rode him before.

Hunting Percival 2:45 Newton Abbot (9/2). Wide open race but I thought this one did well to recover from a bad error with a circuit to go last time. Step up in trip should suit and has drifted to a decent price.
 
Bizarre, never went a yard, possibly just hates Harry Cobden for some reason as he did the same thing when he rode him before.

Flat selection
Ayr 3.05
CARIBBEAN SUNSET 

Ohi 1250
WYNWOOD
win
WYNWOOD &  LAST BAYRON
Reverse forecast 
Spate of wins last year in June and July preceeded  by placed efforts in April.
No seen since placed twice in April and looks capable of striking today, given win was on July 29th.
last bayron
ridden by wadi Jodi in good form and placed third latest.
last bayron
 wins  @ 7/2 
no joy as other runner unplaced. 
 

Day one of Glorious Goodwood although looking at the weather forecast for the week it’s hardly going to be that! The ground for the beginning of the Festival in Sussex is currently good to soft following rain over the weekend and with more rain forecast we’ll be looking for the mudlarks in the four scheduled ITV races.   Goodwood 14.50 Sixteen handicappers declared for the valuable Chesterfield Cup Handicap run over 10F for four year olds and older. Sir Mark Prescott’s Eagles Way makes a quick re-appearance having started his season off with second at Yarmouth five days ago and is a potential improver having racked up a four timer last season. It was good to soft at Yarmouth last week but he’s untested on anything worse than that and there is always the bounce theory. The key piece of form here is the John Smith’s Cup where Pride Of America did well to get the call on the line from Astro KIng and as the Amy Murphy trained six year old loves the mud should be a player here. Back in third that day was the Ed Dunlop trained Haunted Dream (beaten 1 1/2L) and is now 2lb better off. That was the slowest ground he has raced on (good to soft) and is unproven on anything softer. The horse I like though finished seventh that day (beaten 5 3/4L) which doesn’t really tell the whole story as William Haggas’s five year old exited from stall 20 and was plum last after a furlong having been dropped in. He ran on well to finish 7th and much more can be expected today as that was also his first run for 227 days. He was smart in France when trained by Mlle Stephanie Nigge and actually ran third in the 2021 French Derby. He looks primed to win now with soft ground very much in his favour and he’s a confident each way bet. Local handler David Menuisier saddles his Caius Chorister with William Buick on board but he flopped last time so has a small question mark over him. The Middleham stable of the Johnston’s has a great record in the race having won it four times out of the last 9 years and are represented by Outbreak but he has yet to encounter soft ground so is readily overlooked. One horse who is particularly well handicapped is William Knight’s Moktasaab, who runs in the name of Harry Redknapp. He ran third in this contest a year ago off of a 5lb higher handicap mark and is back on a winning mark now. He does however have to prove his effectiveness on a slow surface. The bet is Millesbosc who has his conditions here and will have Tom Marquand in the saddle exiting from stall ten.   MILLESBOSC 2 points each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 15:25 The 7F Group 2 Nicholson Gin Vintage Stakes has attracted nine runners and is for two year olds only. There’s very little soft ground form available which makes things quite difficult here. Richard Hannon who had an impressive winning two year old colt at Ascot on Saturday in the shape of Rosallion saddles the Phoenix Of Spain colt Haatem. Fifth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot he chased home the superstar City Of Troy in Newmarket’s Superlative Stakes at the July meeting on good to soft ground with stable mate Son 3 1/2L back in fifth and the Andrew Balding trained Spanish Phoenix a further 1 3/4L away in sixth. Haatem can confirm that form with that pair and looks the one they all have to beat here. Chesham third Golden Mind trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Frankie Dettori can also play a part in the finish but has yet to race on soft ground although was third on his debut on good to soft. Charlie Hills has booked William Buick for his Newbury winner in June Iberian but with only one of the seven that followed him home that day winning since and being unproven on soft ground looks opposable here especially as he was pulled out on the morning of the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting due to soft ground. Aiden O’Brien sends over Mountain Bear, a Curragh winner on good ground in June but was soundly beaten at Royal Ascot and was pulled out on account of sort ground at Leopardstown last week so is unlikely to like soft ground. With Sean Levey in the saddle this can go the way of the Hannon juvenile Haatem who can boost the City Of Troy Newmarket form by taking this Group 2 contest.   HAATEM 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   Goodwood 4.00 A field of nine assemble for the Group 2 World Pool Lennox Stakes run over 7F which features the day’s best bet. Ralph Beckett’s Kinross will be very hard to beat as long as he doesn’t find trouble. Berthed in stall one, Frankie Dettori’s mount won this in 2021 and ran second to Sandrine last year with a never say die run on the rail from Dettori just failing to get up. He’s run over the furlong shorter trip of 6F this season and was not disgraced when running third to Shaquille in the Group 1 July Cup last time. Back up to his optimum trip on ground he loves with his trainer currently firing at a 30% win rate he will be a tough nut to crack. Al Suhail carries a 3lb penalty for his win at Meydan in March and was comprehensively beaten twice last year by Kinross whilst Newmarket winner Audience, trained by the Gosden’s, has yet to encounter soft conditions. Jumby was behind Audience last time along with Pogo who would appreciate a sounder surface. There are four three year olds in the contest this year with the best of them, and Kinross’s main danger, being the Brian Meehan trained Isaac Shelby who appears to adore soft ground. He was a winner at Newbury first time out this season in the Greenham Stakes over this trip at Newbury on soft and was possibly unlucky not to win the French 2000 Guineas next time out when going down by a short neck. His subsequent fourth of 9 in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot can be forgiven as that was run on good ground and wasn’t a bad effort anyway as he didn’t get a clear run that day. He looks the danger to the favourite Kinross and is worth a small stakes saver.   KINROSS 3 points win @ 13/8 Betfred ISAAC SHELBY 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hill   Goodwood 16:35 A fair sized field of eleven line up for the Group 1 2M Goodwood Cup. Five of the 11 ran in the Ascot Gold Cup last month over a half a mile longer trip with the lightly raced Gosden trained four year old Courage Mon Ami doing us a favour with a majestic ride by Frankie Dettori, weaving through the field to beat Coltrane by a cosy 3/4L. That was only his fourth ever start and having previously won here looks the one to beat although there is a definite question mark over his ability to handle soft ground. Yet to race on a slow surface (his sire Frankel acted on any whilst his dam and relations kept away from soft ground) he may be vulnerable to a couple here dropping back to two miles. Coltrane should go well although he too is unproven on soft ground and the horse I’m interested in is one of the two Aiden O’Brien runners in the four year old filly Emily Dickinson. She may not have stayed in the Ascot Gold Cup when 4 3/4L behind Courage Mon Ami in finishing fourth and has a record on soft ground of 1141. She has run out a comfortable 3L winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup since over 14F and back to two miles looks posed to run a big race with Ryan Moore preferring her over Broome (William Buick). Roger Varin’s Eldar Eldarov won last year’s St Leger and is another with claims with the drop back to two miles possibly in his favour. The best outsider appears to be Brian Ellison’s Tashkhan who is a real mud lover and is very capable if the mud is flying, he’s worth a small stakes each way saver. A good renewal of this valuable staying race in which six of the last 7 favourites have won (three of those coming from the great Stradivarius) and as much as I would love to see Courage Mon Ami win here as he did us a big turn at Ascot we don’t bet with our heart so the bet is Emily Dickinson with a small saver on Tashkan.   EMILY DICKINSON 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 13/2 1/5th 123 TASHKAN 1/4 point each way @ 25/1 Coral 1/5 123   All odds were available at time of writing      

Newton Abbot
2.45- O'FAILANS LAD 6/1eway bet365 👎still running , a 3rd wind op maybe needed .
3.20- SISTERANDBROTHER 11/4 bet365 poor Cobden ride , got closed up & no room at last & finished 3rd 👎

Newton Abbot 
2.45 Jony Max 11/4 bog 
3.55 Fat Sam 5/2 bog 
4.30 Eritage 13/2 
5 points win all 3 

Deauville 3:25
LIFE IN MOTION 
Each way
Has been running well notching up a free timer. Latterly hit the wall in higher grade. Constant companion M.Barzalona.

Great fight, especially in contrast to the heavyweight shenanigans.
Crawford fav with the bookies at around 7/10 and I think he will get it done.
I'm going Crawford by stoppage in rounds 7-12 @ 9/2 (Skybet). Crawford has underrated power and I think he will get to him late. With Spence damaged from the car crashes and boozing he can't be 100% anymore.

2yo races  speed figures, worst year i can remember for the 2yo here we are at the end of July and still the 2yo are well down on runs Royal Ascot was the first indicator with most the runners only having run twice and its not improved much since but we can only go off what we have so-
150 Ascot
1 La Guarida           123    28/1 (was 40/1)
2 Sacred Angel       120    14/1
3 Symbology          119+   9/2
400 York
1 Ganesha                         125     3/1
2 The Good Biscuit          116      2/1

Chepstow 8:55
Upstart crow
win
lujain
win
Both of these Arab horses in good fettle upstart crow on a four timer.
*****************************
multiple winners including 
Blazeon five @ 16/1 
American in Paris  @ 14/1
liverpool knight @ 6/4 !
Terwada
Asean
Quiz test @ 14/1
and finally 
upstart crow
has just won the last at Chepstow @ 5/2 

Just watched back the Wokingham from this year and FRESH took the eye  .  For a 7 furlong specialist run a blinder , right at the back with 2 to run blocked and switched a couple of times and flew home  . 8-1 generally .

Gowran park
1:25
could well  be a case of after the Lord Mayors show for me today as seven winners  yesterday from 16/1 and 14/1 down always means a poor following day.
 THE FOG HORN
win
course and distance winner
switches to turf and could do anything on this heavy ground. Colin Keane rides at the top of his powers. Up twelve pounds for win here but there is always a little kept in reserve in Ireland.
The big outsider I fancy also is
 SALT WHISTLE BAY
each way
a nine year old but still won in June last year at Limerick.
but also won in the teen years back in the day off a mark of 83 at Yarmouth and also has similar period win including on this day at lingfield in 17.
if he could get it together he’d be almost 30 lb to the good here.
 
Ascot 3pm
Fresh won this race last year and for good measure followed up here in September. The mark won off last year was improved  on in September and while over last julys mark today is still under September’s.
For good measure, flesh’s warm up race was at royal ascot over an inadequate six and made up good ground.
As to the physics, fresh is weighted under a runner carrying a penalty and benefits.
For all that, I’m backing fresh each way.
The other intriguing runner for me in this contest is the horse who was badly hampered and lost all chance when last seen Escobar Frankies final ride in this race. It is inconceivable that this horse has not been laid out specifically for this occasion and if Dettori doesn’t go off too quickly should make a bold bid from the winningmost stall in recent years. There are also aspects of traverse law to support the top weight with so many runners running on penalties.
FRESH
EACH WAY
ESCOBAR
EACH WAY
Because of the shameful profiteering the price of Escobar will likely be in single figures at the off time so now is the time to back not at 2:55.
 

2 year old Ascot double.
Symbology 1:50
Sunway 4:15
Both looked very good on debuts. Double around 30/1 on Betfair.
 
That went well. Sybology ran ok but the winner bolted up. Sunway ran no race at all.

2 year old Ascot double.
Symbology 1:50
Sunway 4:15
Both looked very good on debuts. Double around 30/1 on Betfair.
 
That went well. Sybology ran ok but the winner bolted up. Sunway ran no race at all.

2 year old Ascot double.
Symbology 1:50
Sunway 4:15
Both looked very good on debuts. Double around 30/1 on Betfair.
 
That went well. Sybology ran ok but the winner bolted up. Sunway ran no race at all.

2 year old Ascot double.
Symbology 1:50
Sunway 4:15
Both looked very good on debuts. Double around 30/1 on Betfair.
 
That went well. Sybology ran ok but the winner bolted up. Sunway ran no race at all.

Cork 5:22
launch
win
extra selection drops from group class
*****************************
Asean didn’t need a saver!
won with plenty in hand as she pleased a nice 11/4- 5/2 winner.

Ascot and York are the day’s feature meetings with the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes run at 15.40 the day’s feature race, and what a cracker we have this year. A real race to savour. The ground is soft at both tracks so we’ll be looking for horses that love to get their hooves into the turf. Here’s my thoughts on the day’s seven races with selections to help beat the bookies.     Ascot 13:50 We start the days terrestrial coverage off with an eleven runner 6F Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for two year old fillies only. There’s very little soft ground form here with the Amo Racing owned Komat the only horse to comprehensively prove his effectiveness on soft ground having won at Redcar in April on soft. I’m not quite sure she’ll be good enough to win this mind. George Boughey’s Soprano is the current favourite but he ran to at Sandown on Thursday so has to be deemed doubtful one would think. Clive Cox saddles an interesting runner here in the once raced Symbology who beat the more experienced Nighteyes 3/4L at York on her debut a fortnight ago on good ground looking a nice prospect in the process and can run well along with Charlie Johnston’s Sacred Angel who impressed when winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago on fast ground. The Godolphin runner Dazzling Star doesn’t look anything too special having won a modest (by Newmarket standards) 6F maiden a month ago which hasn’t worked out that well. There’s no stand out filly here especially with question marks over the ground for most but I’ll take a chance on the Cox runner Symbology each way to small stakes who, although winning on good ground, may appreciate some cut in the ground like his sire and dam who both won on soft ground.   SYMBOLOGY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   York 14:05 York’s ITV coverage kicks off with a nineteen runner class 4 5F ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap, a unique race where national hunt jockeys get the chance to ride the sprint track on the Knavesmire. It has a very open look about it with local sprint specialist Paul Midgley saddling six runners, the best of whom may well be the Sam Twiston Davies ridden Glory Fighter. 2021 winner Soul Seeker, trained by David O’Meara has plummeted in the handicap since and races here off of a handicap mark some 17lb lower than that victory. He has little form on a soft surface however so is overlooked for that reason alone. In a race where stakes are most definitely kept small the pick may well be the David O’Meara trained Speedacus who is ridden by the current leader of the national hunt jockeys championship Sean Bowen, who actually won on the flat at Pontefract for his father Peter last week with Supposedtobe. Relatively lightly raced for his age, this Slade Power chestnut gelding proved his liking for soft ground when winning at Doncaster a week ago for which he’s been raised 4lb for. In an open contest he’s worth a small each way bet.   SPEEDACUS 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Ascot 14:25 Ten fillies or mares line up for this 1M Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes. The Irish challenger Cadeau Belle, trained by Johnny Murtagh, is unbeaten in two starts having won a Gowran Park maiden on soft ground and a listed race at Navan. This is a further step up in class but shes done nothing wrong and could play a hand in the finish with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Also over from the Emerald Isle is the Joseph O’Brien trained Thornbrook, a listed winner in France last time out who is could also be in the mix here. Roger Varian saddles an interesting runner in the four year old Ameynah who we haven’t seen since finishing 6th in last season’s 1000 Guineas and is also untested on easy ground so is overlooked for those reasons alone. Six of the 10 runners are three year olds including Cadeau Belle with the Andrew Balding trained Vetiver stepping up in grade but only 10lb behind the top rated and has won three times on soft ground so has her under foot conditions here. The one I feel they all have to beat though is the Ed Walker trained, Saffie Osborne ridden Random Harvest. The five year old mare has won twice on soft ground and was probably out of her depth last time out when 6th of 8 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. She had previously gone down by short margins in group 3 and 2 company at Epsom and Ascot and as the highest rated of the ten looks the bet here.   RANDOM HARVEST 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   York 14:40 A competitive fifteen runner 6F class 2 handicap is up next and has a typical York sprint look about it. Karl Burke’s Lethal Levi heads the weights here and ran well on the all-weather at Newcastle last time when 3rd to Batal Dubai. He has claims along with a whole host of others including the only three year old in the field in the shape of Richard Fahey’s Barefoot Angel who makes her first start in a handicap having had her wind operated on since last seen when down the field in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn at Newmarket in April. This represents a drop in grade for the Dark Angel filly and she can run well. Kevin Ryan’s Hambleton Racing owned seven year old Magical Spirit is an interesting runner who won in the mud at Doncaster in April prior to an excellent third of 21 over course and distance 18 days later to Bielsa. His latest run on the all-weather can be forgiven and with conditions to suit looks the pick here to small stakes and an additional place.   MAGICAL SPIRIT 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 15:00 A wide open renewal with 27 spread across the 7F straight track. Biggles comes here in fine form, likes soft ground and has to make the short list with Ryan Moore on board. Last year’s winner Fresh is another who can be competitive as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing whilst that wont worry Baradar who can’t have it soft enough. One of only two three year olds in the race, the Richard Fahey trained Ramazan can also be competitive from what may turn out to be a favourable high draw. At a monster price don’t be surprised if Fools Rush In outruns his odds and could hit the frame at a very big price. A wide open race with Biggles the most likely winner with just a 3lb penalty for his cosy Bunbury Cup victory and with Ryan Moore on top. The only negative is his stall 6 which in the past has been a negative so for that reason the vote goes to the mud lark Baradar berthed in stall 24 and the three year old Ramazan in stall 21.   BARADAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 RAMAZAN 1 point each way @ 14/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345 FOOLS RUSH IN 1/2 point each way 66/1 Coral 1/5th 12345     York 15:15 Just the five go to post for this 1M 2F 56 yards Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. The warm favourite and easily the most likely winner is the William Haggas trained My Prospero who is taking a drop in grade here having run in Group 1 company on his last three starts. His best effort to date was at last season’s Champions Day in the Qipco Champions Stakes when finishing third (beaten 1/2L) by Bay Bridge and Adayar with the great Baaeed behind in fourth. He found the mile of the Lockinge at Newbury on his re-appearance too short for him in May and was not disgraced when fourth of 6 in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal meeting at Ascot in June (beaten 6 1/2L). A reproduction of any of those three runs should see him take this contest on ground that he’s proven on. Roger Varian’s Royal Champion took the Wolverton at Royal Ascot but this is a step up in class for him whilst Owen Burrow’s Alflaila has a 294 day layoff to overcome as well as question marks over his ability to handle soft ground. Johnny Murtagh sends over Mashoor from his County Kildare base in Ireland and is chasing a four timer with his best effort coming at Curragh last time out in the Group 3 International Stakes when running out an impressive 4 3/4L winner from Al Riffa. He looks the danger to the favourite if coping with the soft ground on the Knavesmire.   MY PROSPERO 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill   Ascot 15:40 The feature race of the day is the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, a Group One race run over 1M 4F and has attracted an excellent field of eleven this year and looks like being one of the best renewals for many a year. The two three year olds taking on the nine elders are Aiden O’Brien’s Epsom and Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the Roger Varian trained Derby runner up and Royal Ascot winner King Of Steel. There was only 1 1/2L between them at Epsom and as that was the latter’s first run of the season I would expect there to be little between them here despite Auguste Rodin’s trainer expressing concerns about very soft ground lets not forget he ran out a comfortable winner of the Vertem Futurity on heavy ground as a juvenile. The soft ground has come in favour of the Owen Burrows runner Hukum whose form figures on ground with the description soft in reads 1131. Last seen beating Desert Crown at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes in May he looks a major player now stepping back up in trip. Last year’s winner Pyledriver is back to defend his title having prepped with a victory in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot but this year’s renewal looks a lot classier than last years. The Gosden’s Emily Upjohn was a major disappointment in this race last year when pulling too hard but has bounced back to form this season with two solid efforts although soft ground may be her downfall. An interesting outsider is one of the Aiden O’Brien quartet in Point Lonsdale who’s unbeaten in five starts on soft ground and could hit the frame at a monster price. A race to savour but with plenty in his favour its Hukum for me.   HUKUM 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill POINT LONSDALE 1/4 point each way @ 80/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

1st and 2nd ...Nice runs +31.50

300 asc
Pearl dor  8.4 15/2 
Mobashr   8.2  5/1 
Global esteem  7.7 
I'll try 5pt wins top 2 ....global is a lively danger if running to very best but I'll stick with top 2 rated