MCLARKE

Who needs Cheltenham !
AW selection
Southwell 8.00
MOULIN BOOJ

Who needs Cheltenham !
AW selection
Southwell 8.00
MOULIN BOOJ

Who needs Cheltenham !
AW selection
Southwell 8.00
MOULIN BOOJ

Favourite paradise on days 1 and 2

just looked on bet365
and if you think state man going to win champion hurdle with their super boost they will give you evens to win as far as i know
they have not restricted your stake could be wrong

Favourite paradise on days 1 and 2

Favourite paradise on days 1 and 2

Some of these strike rates are very low so I have analysed the forecast top 2 in the betting for those who would prefer a better strike rate. 
 
Weight in previous race 11st to 11st 6 lbs. 59 from 220, LSP 118.
Same jockey as previous race. 97 from 384, LSP 48.
Odds in previous race 4/5 or less. 59 from 155, LSP 51.
Tuesday and Wednesday. 79 from 301, LSP 93.
Distance won in previous race 3 to 15 lengths. 68 from 207, LSP 82.

4.50 An Bradan Feasa 2,PT EW
Performs well in soft or heavy ground. Often placed and can win outright, although that will be difficult today. Managed to get 28/1, so good value IMHO.
   

Probably better to put comments on this normal daily thread (although it will have Cheltenham in the title to make it easier for new members who are attracted by the Cheltenham festival).

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.
For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.
Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.
4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.
The current 4th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

CHAMPION HURDLE
This is a race where the favourite has an extremely strong record. 7 of the last 10 races have been won by the forecast favourite, with a ROI of 67%.
Horses should have had at least 4 wins in the last 6 races. There have been 67 horses that did not meet this criterion and all of them have lost.
The last win should have been in the last 78 days. Those that did not have a record of 0 from 55.
The last win should have been by at least 2 lengths. There were 65 horses that did not and only 1 won.
It is not very exciting but STATE MAN ticks all the boxes but at a skinny price of 2/5.

10p each way please
Abiding by @Zilzalian rules as dont want to incur a tongue lashing (fnarr fnarr)
 

Cheltenham 1.30 Day two of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks off with the 2M 5F Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a rather disappointing turnout of eight of which five are trained by Irish maestro Willie Mullins. His number one here is the six year old Ballyburn who will be hard to beat. He oozed class when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February clocking a very fast time. Paul Townend was on board that day and has picked him here ahead of his stable mates and although he’s a skinny price will be very tough to beat if in the same mood. Mullins’ Ile Atlantique is maybe the one to chase him home but it may well be the case of Ballyburn coming home clear of his field. The home team only have three chances with The Grey Man a total no hoper and both Ben Pauling’s Handstands and Nicky Henderson’s Jingko Blue having a mountain to climb on form with the favourite. Stablemate El Fabiolo looks a similarly good thing later so maybe a win double is the bet.   BALLYBURN & EL FABIOLO (3.30) 2 points win double 1/2 & 8/15 bet365 @ 1.3/1   Cheltenham 2.10 The 3M 110 yard Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase has disappointedly only attracted six runners. We have another Willie Mullins favourite in Fact To File who it seems the trainer is very sweet on. There is however a horse in here who, in my opinion, has done as much if not more than him over fences. That horse is the Paul Nicholls trained Stay Away Fay who won the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle last season, which is always a good guide to this novice chase the following year with six of the past 14 winners having contested the race the previous year. He’s made a good start to chasing winning twice at Exeter and Sandown (Giovinco back in second)and finishing a good third in open company to Capodanno in the Cotswolds Chase here on trials day on the new course. He can run a bit in snatches so Nicholls reaches for first time cheek pieces today which may help him if it comes to a battle. At the respective prices the value bet has to be Stay Away Fay.   STAY AWAY FAY 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   Cheltenham 2.50  A near maximum field of twenty five assemble for the highly competitive Coral Cup run over 2M 5F. Last year’s winner Langer Dan is worth a close look now that he’s dropped to the exact same mark he won off last season with stomach ulcers the ‘excuse’ for his poor efforts this season. Expect him to run a lot better today. Willie Mullins saddles three with his handicap debutant Sa Majeste the most interesting. He could be chucked in but is priced accordingly. Nicky Henderson has three in this and all three have chances with Doddiethegreat just favoured over Lucky Place and First Street. He ran well in the Betfair Hurdle last time out, a race that was franked last weekend and with the step up in trip sure to suit, this lightly raced eight year old is the pick although I have to have a saver on his stable mate Lucky Place who is making his handicap debut and looks well treated on his runs behind smart novices Golden Ace and Gidleigh Park. The form of the Henderson’s stable has to be questioned though with his Tuesday runners (bar Champion Hurdle 3rd Lucia) running shockingly. Had they been been running better I would be splitting stakes on Doddiethegreat and Lucky Place but with the way the stable are running the bet is last year’s winner Langer Dan.   LANGER DAN 1 point each way @ 9/1 Unibet 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 3.30 Just eight face the starter for the 2M Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Yet again we have a very warm Willie Mullins trained favourite in El Fabiolo. He’s six from six over fences including taking the Arkle Novices’ Chase at the meeting last year and the Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owned seven year old is hard to oppose. His chief rival is the Nicky Henderson trained Jonbon who was firmly put in his place by El Fabiolo in the Arkle last season going down by 5 1/2L and hardly boosted his chances for this when blundering his way around when beaten a neck by the re-opposing Elixir De Nutz here on trials day in the re-arranged Clarence House Stakes. Edwardstone employed new forcing tactics when blitzing his rivals at Newbury last time but is up against it in this company and this can and should go to the favourite bar any accidents.   Cheltenham 4.10 Six of the last 9 winners of this Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase have been won by Gigginstown Stud and they are once again well represented with two big chances in Punchestown banks winner Coko Beach and Delta Work who is the pick here having shown his liking for this unique course having won the last two renewals. Blinkers are added for the first time to Gordon Elliott’s eleven year old who teed up for his hat trick bid by running in a grade two hurdle at Navan in February. 2021 Gold Cup winner Minella Indo is not the force of old but should be competitive here and with heavy ground likely to be against Galvin and many others hard to fancy this may well be fought out by Coko Beach, Minella Indo and Delta Work with the latter the selection with Jack Kennedy on board.   DELTA WORK 1 point win @ 3/1 888sport.com   Cheltenham 4.50 A decent sized field of seventeen line up for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase run over 2M. The race has an open look about and in a race that novice’s have a good record in it may be worth chancing Evan Williams’s Libberty Hunter. He’s won two of his three starts over fences (he fell 3 out on chase debut) including over course and distance on New Year’s Day by a length from Matata (who’s run well in defeat since). A 7lb rise for that victory may not be enough to stop him from running a big race in this open handicap. Last year’s winner Maskada (8lb higher today) and Dublin Racing Festival winner Madara are others likely to run well but with extra places it may be worth backing Libberty Hunter.   LIBBERTY HUNTER 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 5.30 The finale of day two is the 2M 87 yard Champion Bumper which has fallen to Ireland on 24 of the last 31 runnings with that man Willie Mullins winning the race a staggering twelve times in that time span. He saddles nine of the 24 runners here and must have a solid chance of winning it again with the likes of the Souede & Munir owned Jasmin De Vaux, a 15L winner at Naas or possibly the Paul Townend ridden Cantico. There maybe some value with the latter who by all accounts works as well as anything at Closutton and it looks significant that Townend has picked him ahead of other promising types. He couldn’t have done anymore than win a six runner Navan bumper by 6L when last seen so to small stakes he’s the each way pick. Paul Nicholls saddles a brace of runners in Quebecois and Teeshan with the latter a very interesting runner. An easy Irish point winner he made an impressive British rules debut when winning by 7L at Exeter and although Britain have a poor record in this race can run well and be involved in the finish.   CANTICO 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

1.30 Mystical Power
2.10 Quilixios
2.50 Monbeg Genius
3.30 Irish Point
4.10 Ashroe Diamond
4.50 Liari
5.30 Kilbeg King

1.30  Asian Master

2.10  Quilixios
2.50  Chambard
3.30  Irish Point
4.10  You Wear It Well
4.50  Nara
5.30  Mr Vango
 

CHAMPION HURDLE
This is a race where the favourite has an extremely strong record. 7 of the last 10 races have been won by the forecast favourite, with a ROI of 67%.
Horses should have had at least 4 wins in the last 6 races. There have been 67 horses that did not meet this criterion and all of them have lost.
The last win should have been in the last 78 days. Those that did not have a record of 0 from 55.
The last win should have been by at least 2 lengths. There were 65 horses that did not and only 1 won.
It is not very exciting but STATE MAN ticks all the boxes but at a skinny price of 2/5.

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.
For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.
Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.
4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.
The current 4th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

Probably better to put comments on this normal daily thread (although it will have Cheltenham in the title to make it easier for new members who are attracted by the Cheltenham festival).

As per last year I'll donate any profits I make at Cheltenham to the charity

Probably better to put comments on this normal daily thread (although it will have Cheltenham in the title to make it easier for new members who are attracted by the Cheltenham festival).

Probably better to put comments on this normal daily thread (although it will have Cheltenham in the title to make it easier for new members who are attracted by the Cheltenham festival).

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.
For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.
Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.
4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.
The current 4th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

There's lots of scrolling about to find the relative Cheltenham thread atm & was just going to add that looks like a fair bit of rain due tomorrow morning & going will be soft , which is good , as long as it doesn't go heavy which there's a chance on Cross Country Course for Wednesday's race .

1.30 Jeriko du Reponet
2.10 My Mate Mozzie
2.50 Stumptown
3.30 Iberico Lord
4.10 Marie's Rock
4.50 Eagle Fang
5.30 Henry's Friend
 
good luck everyone !