MCLARKE

There are a couple of decent class 2 handicaps at Doncaster over 10 and 12 furlongs. There have been 126 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw = 1. AE = 1.59. A very strong statistic with a strike rate of 21%.
Weight < 9st 1lb. AE = 1.15. As the going becomes heavier towards the end of the season then higher weights struggle.
Horse bred in UK. AE = 1.13. I don't have a great deal of knowledge of breeding but the country of breeding is quite influential in some instances. I suspect it is not used by many people in the selection process so it may provide a betting edge.
Age = 3 or 4. AE = 1.10. As the season progresses the younger horses tend to mature and perform better.
Forecast odds > 7/2. Again as the season progresses the weather and going becomes more variable and form becomes less reliable which impacts on the profitability of favourites.
Top rated in the 1.10 is CEPHEUS 1.15 - 13/2 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the weight, although it is heavily influenced by being drawn 1.
There are 3 joint 2nd with a rating of 1.08.
ICONIC CHOICE 9/1 BET365
FISHABLE 4/1 BET365
TULIP FIELDS 9/1 BET365
In the 2.20 the top rated is ISHVARA 1.08 - 8/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.
Rated 2nd is ABEL HANDY 1.05- 22/1 BET365. This horse is drawn 1 but is a 5yo bred in Ireland.
 

Apologies, thought I was looking at the table for the 21st, not the 20th.

Won.            Returned £90
Bank £435

returns 86.67, profit 66.67
this month +389.57

Result
Navan 03:05 EARLS..... Non-Runner
Wolverhampton 05:10 FROW..... 1st..4/7
Todays Profit =  + 5.71 pts
Current Years Profit 2020 =  - 10.00 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2787.25 pts. 
Profit = + 2687.25 pts.   
Current Winning Run =  1

Result
Yarmouth 02:35 BOLLIN NEIL..... 3rd..3/1
Newcastle 04:10 TRAVELLER..... 1st..6/1
Fairyhouse 04:45 THEFAITHFULINDIAN..... 4th..11/10
Todays Profit =  + 40.00 pts
Current Years Profit 2020 =  - 15.71 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2781. 54 pts. 
Profit = + 2681. 54 pts.   
Current Losing Run =  1

doing well with these doubles over the last few days .... that's 3 decent wins in 4 days !
return 178.75, profit 158.75
this month - + 342.90

Second day running over Jumps and another big win !
return 178.75, profit 158.75
this month + 204.15
 

I did my bit hopefully with a 11/1 winner, a 2nd at 50/1 and a 3rd at 40/1. Profit for the day of over £200 to £10 each way stakes.

I did my bit hopefully with a 11/1 winner, a 2nd at 50/1 and a 3rd at 40/1. Profit for the day of over £200 to £10 each way stakes.

I did my bit hopefully with a 11/1 winner, a 2nd at 50/1 and a 3rd at 40/1. Profit for the day of over £200 to £10 each way stakes.

I did my bit hopefully with a 11/1 winner, a 2nd at 50/1 and a 3rd at 40/1. Profit for the day of over £200 to £10 each way stakes.

Balmoral handicap 4.15 Ascot. A class 2 handicap over 1 mile. There have been 280 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw < 8. AE = 1.11.
Forecast odds > 5/1. AE = 1.06.
Not 1st last time. AE = 1.04.
Won over course and distance. AE = 1.31.
Weight > 8st 11lbs. AE = 1.04.
Selections
TEMPUS 1.11, drawn 6, forecast odds 7/1, 6th last time, won over course and distance last month and weight 9st 2lbs. Passes all the criteria. Available at 15/2 with Paddy Power (5 places). Bet of the day.
NJORD 1.04 (11/1, 5 places).
SYMBOLIZE 1.04 (66/1, 5 places).
GREENSIDE 1.04 (40/1, 6 places).

Wolverhampton 5.30, a class 6 handicap over 9 furlongs. There have been 164 such races at Wolverhampton in the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Forecast odds < 5/1. AE = 1.43.
Weight > 9st 2lbs. AE = 1.17.
In 1st 4 last time. AE = 1.19.
Top 4 in the weights. AE = 1.21.
Days since last run < 10. AE = 1.37.
Selections
STRONG STEPS 1.27, forecast odds 4/1, weight 9st 9lbs, 3rd last time, 3rd in the weights and last run 9 days ago. Ticks all the boxes. 13/2 with BET365.
WHATWOULDYOUKNOW 1.18 (11/4).
COME ON LINDA 1.03 (9/2).
The same conditions also apply to the 4.55 race. Selection are :-
ROGUE TIDE 1.18 (9/2).
LAURENTIA 1.18 (9/2).
MONAAHDIL 1.08 (5/1).

Balmoral handicap 4.15 Ascot. A class 2 handicap over 1 mile. There have been 280 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw < 8. AE = 1.11.
Forecast odds > 5/1. AE = 1.06.
Not 1st last time. AE = 1.04.
Won over course and distance. AE = 1.31.
Weight > 8st 11lbs. AE = 1.04.
Selections
TEMPUS 1.11, drawn 6, forecast odds 7/1, 6th last time, won over course and distance last month and weight 9st 2lbs. Passes all the criteria. Available at 15/2 with Paddy Power (5 places). Bet of the day.
NJORD 1.04 (11/1, 5 places).
SYMBOLIZE 1.04 (66/1, 5 places).
GREENSIDE 1.04 (40/1, 6 places).

2-30 Ascot WONDERFUL TONIGHT
This three-year-old daughter of Le Havre is extremely lightly raced. She has talent in abundance though and a fortnight ago, she made just about all to win the Qatar Prix De Royallieu at Paris Longchamp in testing conditions. She looks all set to encounter similar ground here this afternoon and with trainer David Menusier in excellent form she commands utmost respect. Will Buick takes over in the saddle and given that she has won over longer trips, he will likely make the most of her proven stamina. Wonderful Tonight is set to receive seven pounds from her male counterparts including Antonio De Vega and and Dame Mallot. Every single pound will count on ground this soft and if finding for pressure, she may well be able to grind them into submission. Many of her own sex who line up here are woefully out of form. She still has further improvement to come and she has to be high on any shortlist.
 
3-40 Ascot ADDEYBB
A globetrotting winning machine is the best way to describe the William Haggas trained six-year-old. This ten furlong trip certainly brings out the best in him and with three wins from four starts under his belt this year, he is remarkably consistent. Two of those victories came out in Australia in the spring where he picked up wins in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill before also scoring at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He returned to the UK in time for Royal Ascot and following his exertions abroad, he found only one too strong in Lord North. Given that he probably needed to reacclimatise, that effort had to be marked up. That proved to be the case when on his subsequent start he lined up for the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Despite coming under strong pressure a couple of furlongs out, he fought back bravely and got the better of Lord Glitters by just under a length. The form of that race has already been well advertised at the fourth placed Euchen Glen has come out to win subsequently. Tom Marquand has built up an excellent relationship with this son of Pivotal and they have to rate as massive dangers to all. He has been given a two month break to prepare for this and his trainer can reap the rewards.
4-15 Ascot KEATS
Last seen out just over a fortnight ago, Keats was given a positive ride by Seamie Heffernan in a listed race at Cork. He came under a drive a couple of furlongs from home but the son of Galileo found plenty for pressure. He readily swept to the front to beat Free Solo by a little over a length. He looks to be another that is improving just at the right time and may be able to take full advantage of many rivals who have just not shown their true form this season. With the ground likely to be just as he likes it and now with Ryan Moore on board, the pair can end the season on a high for all at Ballydoyle.

High class action at Ascot today with 4 Group 1 races.
When I rate a race I base it on 6 years of statistics for that particular class of race over the distance. This normally gives a large sample of data to use. I then look at the 5 factors that are most influential in that type of race and apply them to each horse.
I use the AE ratio as the rating. This is the actual winners to expected winners ratio based on the odds. AE is better than ROI, which can be distorted by 1 or 2 high odds winners.
Over the last 6 years there have been 568 class 1 races over 10 furlongs or more so this gives a large sample to start with. 
The key factors are :
1. Days since last run > 30. AE = 1.11. These races usually take a lot out of a horse so more time is often needed for them to recover.
2. Forecast odds < 13/8. AE = 1.24. Short priced favourites have a good record.
3. Finished in top 3 last time out AE = 1.06. Quality is paramount in these types of races.
4. Top or joint top weight. AE = 1.07. This will include those horses that have a penalty due to having won a group race, again highlighting quality.
5. Age > 4. AE = 1.08. Horses tend to reach their peak at 5 and they need to be at their peak for these types of races.
For the 1.20 Ascot the ratings are :-
STRADIVARIUS 1.07 - short price favourite but ran only 13 days ago. Odds 5/4.
FUJAIRA PRINCE 1.06 - positive on all factors apart from forecast odds. Odds 12/1.
MORANDO 1.06 - again positive on all factors apart from forecast odds. Odds 14/1.
The same analysis can be applied to the 2.30 and 3.40 races, which are both long distance races.
2.30 DAME MALLIOT 1.04 (5/1), CABALETTA 1.04 (40/1), EVEN SO 1.04 (6/1). 4 places available so may be worth betting each way.
3.40 LORD NORTH 1.034 (5/1), MAGICAL 1.033 (7/4).
I will be back later with analysis of a more run of the mill handicap race.
 
 
 
 

Result
Curragh 01:35 LUSTOWN BABA..... 1st..5/2
Todays Profit =  + 25.00 pts
Current Years Profit 2020 =  - 55.71 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2741. 54 pts. 
Profit = + 2641. 54 pts.   
Current Winning Run =  2 

Result
Cork 05:50 DREAL DEAL..... 1st..4/9
Rule 4 applies @5%
Todays Profit =  + 4.22 pts
Current Years Profit 2020 =  - 80.71 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2716. 54 pts. 
Profit = + 2616. 54 pts.   
Current Winning Run =  1 

Yes I've made the same mistake before.
Very honest of you @LeMale, sums up the integrity of people on this forum.

WON 11/10
return 42.00, profit 22.00
this month - +5.40
back in profit!

Yes I've made the same mistake before.
Very honest of you @LeMale, sums up the integrity of people on this forum.

Sunday 11/10/2020
Newton Abbot 01:45 FLIC OU VOYOU
f/c. Evens
Stake =  10 pts. WIN

Yes I've made the same mistake before.
Very honest of you @LeMale, sums up the integrity of people on this forum.

Yes I've made the same mistake before.
Very honest of you @LeMale, sums up the integrity of people on this forum.