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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. 2 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

    Going to do 100 bets and see if I can improve. If not I'll be knocking the lucky 15's on the head. Can't pick 1 winner at the moment, let alone 4.😂

    I think with lucky 15s you need patience because it could be a few hundred bets before you hit the big one.

    I was fortunate in that my big win came at the start of my L15 bets, since then I'm over £100 down but still up £800 overall.

    I was initially very sceptical about L15s but I am now convinced that if you are betting with the traditional bookies it is a better bet than the win single.

  2. 20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    Well my conclusion of your result was similar to mine and is well worth remembering. That is that your grand national day selections were from a pool of horses where every runner was trying in every race, my best or i should say most consistent results come in pattern races where almost all are trying, Royal Ascot will be a very good time to do a lucky 15 not just per day but across the days (to do this you must know your horses, no use pin sticking). My advice to you or anyone else would be to do just one lucky 15 on your average day to day races throughout the season in the hope you get lucky and many in the festival races where your skill at selecting and knowledge of the horses will count for more. For the pinstickers i would suggest at ascot or festivals you choose 4 of the @The Brigadier selections from his write ups preferably the bigger prices. For even bigger prices i suggest you chuck one or two @richard-westwood selections in there.

    My selections for Aintree were based on my statistics for the festival which held up quite well. Hopefully my Ascot analysis will prove successful.

    Overall my selections have been pretty rubbish on here. I have 2 methods, most are based on the current systems I am running but for the TV selections I use a much more basic method based on the odds. This basic method is performing much better than my system selections with a loss of 4% compared to 24%.

    I would expect the performance of my system selections to improve over the course of a season to be showing a small profit (at BSP).


  3. On 5/14/2023 at 11:14 PM, MCLARKE said:

    A bit of mean reversion over the last few matches

    The return for the over 1 goal is now down to 78%

    The overall return by odds range is

    Up to 9/2 32%

    5/1 to 17/2 58%

    Above 17/2 162%

    The poor run continues but the returns are still good overall

    Over 1 goal 27 wins from 104 bets, ROI 61%

    Odds up to 9/2 29%

    5/1 to 17/2 35%

    Above 17/2 127%

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