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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Ratings Experiment for the 2000 Guineas.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 4/30/2024 at 4:06 PM, MCLARKE said:

    I can only watch one horse in a race so I'll go with HAATEM who looks the best value. I would probably have £10 EW but would wait until the day of the race as there will probably be 4 places available somewhere and BOG would be available.

    I thought there would be 4 places somewhere but not to be so I'll go for a £10 win with BETMGM at 25/1 BOG + I then get a £10 free bet on the 1000 guineas

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    I also had boiling point top with indian run which was a non runner. Big conundrum as regards speed figures today and a warning, i had whip cracker and caviar heights close (1l) in the 225 based on their previous meeting where the former won by a sh. Impossible to work out where the 15 length swing came from.

    I am only having small stakes on these whilst I continue to work on my data

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Current loss 9.90

    Just for a bit of interested in the TV races

    Top rated

    Newmarket 3.35 BOILING POINT 2/1 BV

    Newmarket 4.10 KING OF CONQUEST 13/2 LADBROKES

    Goodwood 3.15 MANY A STAR 4/1 BETMGM

    Goodwood 3.50 HARRY BROWN 6/1 LADBROKES

    Racing Chat Sunday 28 April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 4/28/2024 at 12:51 PM, MCLARKE said:

    AW selection

    Southwell 3.40

    WONDERFUL EAGLE

    A poor end to the month with the current losing run being 8.

    Overall for the month 3 wins from 20 runs with a loss of 2.55 points.

    YTD 27 from 91, LSP 61.75.

    Overall it was a very good month for all the selections with 59 wins from 523 runs with a profit of 73.12 points. The AE was 1.07. The highlight was Joe Gargery with a BSP of 81.2 on the 9th at Southwell. YTD 205 from 1,987, LSP 134.45.

    I am limiting my selections to those with forecast odds between 7/2 and 15/2 and this again proved very profitable with 108 wins from 626 selections and a profit of 106.83 points. YTD 188 from 1,075, profit 182 points.

     

     

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I hope that I am transparent in my systems, I always state my profit or loss in the various threads I post on.

    By your definition I am not smart because I will take the outcome of my system and bet on it regardless. So called negatives can in fact be positives if they are over compensated for in the betting.

    You are right though, most systems fail. I always test mine on a years worth of data to see if it still makes a profit. I will then calculate the p-value to ensure that the results are not driven by chance. Even then I will bet small amounts until I have a sufficient bank for that system.

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