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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. 1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

    Considering Your grand national win L15 what conclusions if any did you draw from that?

    The L15 is a good fun bet and I was very lucky on the day

    Since then I've realised that the L15 is probably the best way to bet if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers

  2. 1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

    But that is specific to how you select your horses yes? I would suggest everyone else would produce different results. So does your conclusions mean that you will now only select between 11/4-15/2? I ask that because i would show a huge loss using that criteria.

    Yes that is based on my selections. It is only a small sample size so the conclusions may change over time.

    I will continue to make selections covering all odds ranges but I may have an extra L15 on selections between 11/4 - 15/2.

    If I had stuck to this odds range then I wouldn't have pricked the last 2 horses when I had my big win on GN day.

    As I have said before we are all different and you and several others are very good at picking longer priced horses. 

    It would be interesting to know if others had analysed their results by odds range to see what their conclusions are.

  3. 4 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Not sure I fully understand that. Do you mean the 25 points profit would be improved by 14%?

    Also, that’s a really odd way to split the data, especially that small 2/1 to 5/2 band. It would be more relevant to sort the data by price and break it into 4 quarters and look at the returns that way perhaps.

    That odds range makes a profit of 11% at LSP, with the bonuses added that would increase to 25%.

     Splitting it into 4 quarters would give 

    2/1 - 7/2      -3%

    4/1 - 5/1      6%

    11/2 - 17/2  3%

    > 17/2         -56%

    A similar conclusion, the mid range odds produce the best returns


  4. On 5/16/2023 at 12:51 PM, harry_rag said:

    Still feels to me that sticking short prices in a L15 is a waste of the double/treble odds for one winner bonus but I get that it's better to put winning shorties in than disastrously loss-making long shots. But if you roughly break even across a range of prices then you want to stick the bigger prices in the L15 to maximise the bonus. You need to get better at selecting bigger priced winners; think of it as being like developing your biceps!

    312 is still pretty small as a sample size to draw major conclusions from. I'd be interested to know your average odds and return if you'd backed them as level stakes singles. I could then run that through my "calculator" to see how your actual L15 returns compare to  the expected ones.

    I've now had 400 selections and at level stakes they have made a loss of 49 points (-13% roi) at BOG. Encouragingly this was a lot better than SP which was -95 points (-25% roi).

    If I split the selections into 3 odds ranges the results are :-

    2/1 - 5/2      5 wins from 31 selections, LSP -14 points

    11/4 - 15/2 44 wins from 226 selections, LSP + 25 points

    8/1 - 28/1   6 wins from 130 selections, LSP - 61 points

    So at this stage (admittedly with a relatively small amount of data) the odds range of 11/4 to 15/2 looks the best.

    The basic return of 11% would be enhanced over the long term by the L15 bonuses of approximately 14%.


  5. 2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    I was going to try and persuade you that the SoT had to be Opta adjudged to be "alternative" e.g. a right footed player shooting with his left or a back heel from the centre circle but I thought better of it! :lol 

    Just an "alternative" line rather than the main one for City SoT but an odd choice to put up as a bet boost perhaps.

    Ignorance is not always bliss !

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