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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. 2 hours ago, Bamberini said:

    Hi. Hope I’m on the right forum. Heading to Chester on Thursday so looking forward to any tips for that day. Got my eye on a couple and was torn. Out of the Jockeys Ryan Moore, Jamie Spencer and Davie Probert who wound you rank 1st, 2nd and 3rd as that may swing my decision on a couple of races. 

    I normally avoid Jamie Spencer like the plague and his record at Chester is particularly bad, with 5 winners from 60 runners and an AE of 0.58.

    Ryan Moore has a much better record with 20 winners from 71 runners and an AE of 1.15. He does particularly well when he his drawn low. When drawn higher than 7 he is 0 from 14.

    David Probert also has a good record, with 30 winners from 176 runners and an AE of 1.12.

  2. 23 minutes ago, Bang on said:

    I understand what you are saying, and I am definitely in favour of short losing runs, the downside is you are guaranteed to have 'at least' 5 out of 6 non winners. I can't buy into that. I did try it one time (not quite 6 in a race but 4 when the prices were good ).

    It's the wrong mindset IMO, trying to 'avoid losing' rather than trying to 'win'.

    I much prefer the ideology of the likes of Warren buffett " I watch pitch after pitch go by ... and then hit the one in the sweet spot", or Tony Bloom " If you find a good bet .. be aggressive".

    It's difficult to reach their levels (most likely never will), but the best advice that I personally could give, is " See where you are doing well, and see where you are losing... cut out the losing part and enjoy".

    Alternatively , if it works for you, or makes you happy, just ignore me. 

    Potentially you could have 6 "winners" if you pick horses at odds greater than 5/1

    I am not trying to avoid losing, my logic is that the maths dictates that you are getting better value with 6 places betting each way than to win.

    As an example In a 19 runner race, if all the horses were priced at 18/1, if you backed them all to win you would breakeven, if you backed them all each way you would make a profit of 4.3 points.

  3. Punchestown trends. Only 3 years data to base this on but I need some method to pick some selections for the tipsters competition.

    3.10 Last ran < 34 days ago 1 from 39

    Odds < 16/1, 1 from 28

    This leaves 2, FAKIR and EASYLAND

    Weight < 10st 12lbs, 1 from 31

    This leaves EASYLAND at 25/1, 4 places


    Beaten favourite, 0 from 2

    1st last time, 2 from 5, AE 1.43

    Odds > 2/1, 1 from 19

    This leaves EPATANTE at 5/6


    Weight < 11st 1lb, 0 from 29


    Not in the top 4 in the betting, 0 from 30

    This leaves PHOENIX WAY at 8/1, 4 places


    Not in 1st 3 last time, 0 from 9

    Last ran > 23 days ago, 1 from 10

    This leaves INNATENDUE at 66/1


  4. 23 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    AW selection

    Newcastle 5.35


    That was my last selection of this year's AW winter season. It was a good month to end with 6 winners from 16 runners and a lsp profit of 7.88 points.

    Overall for the season there were 29 winners from 100 runners with a lsp of 6.94 points.

    Grand total is 38 winners from 151 runners with a lsp of 12.67 points (ROI 8.4%).

    From the 1st of May I will post a summer flat selection. Hopefully it will be as successful as last summer when there were 56 winners from 158 runners with a lsp of 29.36 points (ROI 18.6%).

  5. Punchestown trend analysis. I've only got 4 years worth of data but I'll give it a bash.


    Last ran < 22 days ago, 0 from 14

    Odds > 9/4, 1 from 33

    Bred in France, 1 from 2, AE 1.89

    This leaves ALPHA MALE at 7/2


    Odds > 7/1, 0 from 52


    Weight < 11st 6lb, 0 from 51

    This leaves BLUE SARI at 11/1


    Bred in UK, 3 from5, AE 2.89

    This leaves HONEYSUCKLE at 2/11


    Ran < 33 days ago, 0 from 13

    Bred in France, 3 from 14, AE 1.64

    This leaves STATE MAN at 11/10


    Not finished 1st or 2nd, 1 from 31

    Age > 10, 1 from 21

    Odds > 6/1, 0 from 31

    Last ran > 22 days ago, 1 from 29

    This leaves VAUCELET at 1/1


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