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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I am feeling confident about my lucky 15 bets going forward (although I still feel I'm missing something, it seems too good to be true, as Tom Robinson sang.)

    I believe we have several edges that can transform us from losing at SP to winning

    1. BOG - ?

    2. The lucky 15 accumulator bonus - approx. 1%

    3. The lucky 15 x 2 bonus - approx 14%

    4. The lucky 15 X 3 bonus with Betfred - approx 14%

    5. Our skill at selecting value bets - approx 5% (for me)

    I am assuming that we will be betting in the range 3/1 to 10/1

    The starting point will be a SP loss of 15%

    The edges would transfer this into a profit of 5% (20% with Betfred) + any benefit from BOG

    I will record all my bets over the next few weeks / months and hopefully put the theory into practice !

     

     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    All Sweet stuff Micheal but you still need the horse/s and they and their odds are the important bit and without some sort of system ie speed figures and or an extensive knowledge of not just horses but how to use the odds of each horse, for example:- picking four favs every day will get you running on the spot and soon falling behind.

    As you say, the main element is selecting horses that offer value. I have a variety of methods of selection and on average I have an edge of about 5%.

    Nearly all my serious betting is on the exchanges, in effect the equivalent of the bookies overround is the 2% commission so this leaves me with a 3% profit.

    The average loss with the standard bookmakers at SP is a massive 24%. This can be reduced by using BOG but not sufficiently to turn my 5% edge into a profit.

    The lucky 15 option does open up the possibility of overcoming the bookies overound and combined with good horse selection profits well in excess of my average 3%.

    We shall see.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    It's giving me a headache thinking about it but I've started to develop a spreadsheet which hopefully look at the various permutations and points me in the right direction.

    There are 16 possible permutations for the 4 horses

    WWWW

    WWWL

    WWLW etc

     

    Without any bonuses and without any bookies overround the expected value of the 16 permutations would be 1.00, i.e. breakeven.

    I have then calculated the edge for the accumulator bonus and the single win bonus at various odds levels.

    So for odds of 1/1 :-

    If I add on the accumulator bonus this takes the expected value to 1.009, i.e. the edge is 0.9%.

    If I take off the accumulator bonus and add on the single win bonus this takes the expected value to 1.017, i.e. the edge is 1.7%.

    The results are :-

    image.png

    I must admit I am surprised at the size of the edge and it goes again the general perception that the bookies favourite bet is the accumulator. This assumes my calculations are correct !

    The big benefit appears to be the double the odds for the 1 winner, the influence of which increases as the odds increase. The accumulator benefit remains fairly consistent at 1%.

    Perhaps @Zilzalianwas right all along with his belief in lucky 15s.

    Obviously this assumes that we can breakeven with our bets. I will review the losses we can expect to make at SP and then see where the sweet spot is in terms of the odds.

     

    BET365 25% WINNINGS BOOST ON YOUR BET BUILDER

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

    Not very "super" and probably fair at best would be my take on that one. (And I think the bet you're referring to is for them both to get >0.5 SoT i.e. at least one each, rather than >1).

    You are right, I did mean 0.5. I'm not sure what the true odds are on these super boosts but overall they've proved very profitable. I even had one on UFC which I know absolutely nothing about.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    As for Saturday my 22 year old grandson was buzzing and screaming at the tv far more than me when Corach Rambler jumped the last and he nearly cried when he saw the second gaining ground, i should have videoed him. 🤣 he hadn't even bet the horse (his 3 fell) but he knew i had.

    I don't think I'll see much of the £993, my wife's already got her eyes on £600 of it for a dress for my daughter's wedding !

     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    If Micheal truly believed in what he is saying or what the analysis/data is saying he would not put a penny piece on a lucky 15 but he did and he won and now he will be about 270 years old before he wins again even if the bonus is 10,000% for all 4 so why isn't he retiring?

    I retired many years ago with gains on the stock market, much easier to make money but not as much fun !

    Also, if it wasn't for you banging the drum about L15s I would never have had a bet on them so many thanks for that.

    As you say you are never too old to learn !

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