MCLARKE
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Posts
10,551 -
Joined
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Last visited
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Days Won
453
Posts posted by MCLARKE
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2 hours ago, pa4410 said:
How long would you guys trial a method/system until it's failed? This is the first time trying anything like this, it has not gone well
I tend to paper trade first and ideally would like to see that it's been profitable for a full season. When going live I would keep faith until it showed a loss of 50 points.
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My last bet using BET365 BOG the night before.
So it's either Boylesport or waiting till the morning, what do we reckon ?
- justanotherpunter and LEE-GRAYS
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Thursday was good but Friday was even better with 78 points of profit, led by @Craig bluenosewith 50/1 Nicky Henderson trained On The Blind Side at Newbury and @Gary66finding 33/1 Newcastle old timer Atholblair Boy, also picked by @justanotherpunter
- Gary66 and MinellaWorksop
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Cracking start to the match by France, if I'd stuck to my original plan I'd have collected £68.75 profit after 8 minutes
@harry_ragwould also have collected £52.50 profit
As it is I just need the Dutch to score to collect £125 profit
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4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Pity its still got to win ? Lay off, C/O or let it ride?
You know there's only 1 answer !
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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:
I think France will win, and Mbappe won't be phased by it being his first game as captain. Incidentally, I if wanted to have a bet on that I'd be allowed a whopping 38p on!
Could be worse, with football bets with Sky I'm allowed 10p !
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NH selection
Hereford 3.50
MASTER MIKEY DEE 12/1
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Newbury 3.40
PRECIOUS ELEANOR 7/2
£20 win BSP
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1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
I have a problem 9 of them horses I back regular
Some bookies might be offering 9 places !
- Tedthewolf, vikki37, The Brigadier and 2 others
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MUSSELBURGH 3.30
BEDSIDE BANTER 50/1
BV
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Fantastic tipping today with 59 points profit, led by @rolandcooperwho leaps to the top of the table with Chepstow winner Ring The Moon. @Rainbowalso selected the same horse.
- MinellaWorksop and Gary66
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Too true. I would have won £175 if I'd stuck to my original plan or £250 if I'd taken the BTTS option.
Anyway, I've crept back into profit, £2.50 after 7 matches.
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Always the way. If I'd stuck to my original plan I would have collected at 5/1.
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7 hours ago, harry_rag said:
I’m going close to minimum odds for this one; England double chance (win or draw), <4 total goals & Saka >0.5 shots at 21/20.
Thanks Harry, I've gone with this at evens, it will be nice to get a win after 5 losses.
Also taken £10 on the super boost, Harry Kane > 1.5 shots on target, was 11/10, now 2/1, I assume this is now good value, you can lay it on Betfair at 2.84.
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LUDLOW 5.50
REWRITETHERULES 50/1
BET365
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21 hours ago, BBBC said:
Corals are still bog from when they publish a market. It’s normally the day before but they are always one of the last out of the big boys to put the prices up.
I thought Coral was the same as Ladbrokes, 8am on the day ?
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6 hours ago, harry_rag said:
With respect I think you won’t find anything of any predictive value based on what happened in each team’s last game, I’d go as far as to say it would be of no relevance whatsoever.
You are probably right, it was just easier to calculate based on the last match. It was enough to put me off my initial assumption about the likelihood of draws. I suppose I've scratched the itch. I'll return to horse racing and just bet on football where there is a decent offer.
I suspect any forecasting models I develop will have already been developed by other football bettors. I'll have a bash before the new season starts, I think I did make a profit last time backing outsiders in the premier league where 1 bookie was offering higher odds than the average but the bets were few and far between.
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On 3/21/2023 at 10:33 PM, harry_rag said:
I’d be fairly certain that more often than not one team’s run will be coming to an end! Whether the draw is more likely than in an average game I don’t know.
I've done some very basic research based on the 380 matches in the 2018/19 premier league (this must have been the last time I looked at football)
Average draw % 18.7%
Draw % when both teams either won or drew last time 16.8%
Very basic but doesn't support my theory
The highest draw % is 30.3% where the home team lost last time and the away team drew. Only 33 matches in the sample though so probably need more data before any conclusion can be drawn
Since it's coming to the end of the season I might put this on hold and investigate a few ideas before the start of the next season
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Next match is Italy v England
Another tight match with Italy 7/4 and England at 13/8 for the win
Using my previous logic I would back England to win the match and 1st half and over 2 goals in the match at 7/1
Or back the home team at 15/2 ?
Or back BTTS instead of the over 2 goals at 10/1 for both teams ?
I am open to persuasion
Naps - Saturday 25th March
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
KELSO 4.10
BETTER BE DEFINITE 100/1
BV