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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/09/20 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    A cracking Saturday with 4 winners including Buxton at a massive price. Going to be fairly brief again here as busy with Cheltenham as always this week and I have 3 bets. Just going to add one thing though and that is I have stopped putting up Marathon's prices. I have found it harder and harder to get on with them and last week it reached a new level that meant it was pointless me getting on with them anymore. To be fair I have had a very good run with them and took them for a near 5 figure sum on the final day of last season. I'm not sure how many readers were using them anyway and although they were often top price it wasn't by as much as it sometimes used to be. Not all the bookies I put up I can get on with to be fair and my BetVictor account was closed down long ago, but my guess is that people are more likely to have an account with them so I am happier to put them up if they are top price. Dagenham & Redbridge v AFC Fylde (National League) Fylde are now 10 points from safety and they have a tough game here as Dagenham are trying to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone although it is thought only 3 teams will be going down anyway.As I mentioned the other week Dagenham are much improved under Daryl McMahon which isn't a big surprise given he was taking over from Peter Taylor. They had a good away win on Saturday against an Aldershot side who had been doing pretty well of late especially at home. Dagenham's loss at Barrow the previous Saturday is there only loss in 8 league games and I think they can put another nail in Fylde's coffin on Tuesday night. Kettering v Hereford (National League North) Hereford won for us on Saturday and I think they are a big price to win against Kettering. The hosts have had a lot of games called off and their match against Gloucester on Saturday was their first in a while. They probably should have won, but it was two poor teams playing each other and Kettering are struggling a little with injuries at the moment. Hereford are clearly on the improve and are over priced to win a 3rd away game on the bounce. Biggleswade v Barwell (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) I like the away team here who were very good in beating Bromsgrove Sporting 4-1 on Saturday. They have only lost one of their last nine games now and are in much better form than their hosts who have lost 7 of their last 10. Barwell still have a chance of 6th place as well (along with plenty of others) so still have something to play for whereas Biggleswade have nothing to play for now. Dagenham 2pts @ 13/10 with William Hill Hereford 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365 Barwell 1pt @ 13/8 with BetVictor and Bet365
  2. 4 points
  3. 4 points
    A ridiculous decision, but there we are, left with two Challengers for the week 😵. Edit: Just for the record, I think it's ridiculous mainly because 1) all the big American sports are still going ahead in packed arenas 2) they could've played without spectators if they were afraid of that 3) canceling it so close to the event after essentially everyone has already traveled there?.
  4. 2 points

    Competition Going Forward

    Proposals As promised is the tables thread I am looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month. I find that clear leaders sit on their profit and players attempting to qualify for the Cup are doing the same which leads to many players not picking selections in the last couple of days or more. Just to be clear I have no feelings one way or another on how players go about approaching the competition, we all have our own way of betting, we just want everyone to feel they have something to play for. I have noticed over the last few months some rumblings about the way players approach the Naps competition and there is no doubt we have had a shift in more players going for the speculative outsider than we have before. I had a look at the figures and we are regularly hitting around the 19% S/R these days where as before we were often around the 25% mark. This is totally down to more players going for 25/1+ selections. The players who genuinely sift through the cards to find their best bet of the day feel as though they have no chance in winning the monthly competition. I can see once a player has hit a 50/1 winner just playing for a Cup place is not the best of incentives. I think we can reward performance and profit and have been looking at the last 12 months figures to see how we can do it. At first I thought it would be best just to award the player with the highest strike rate a percentage of the winners prize but I also don't think encouraging people to select 1/4 shots everyday is helping anyone, so taking that a step further, what about if we had a profit figure that you needed to surpass as well? If we say took the highest strike rate of those that made a profit in the month of at least £10 that would kill off any ideas of odds on shots every single day. Of course you would expect some short priced horses to be chosen and I have no problem with that, if its a Nap, its a Nap but by having the £10 figure it really rewards those that have performed well that month. I have done a couple of tables to show how it would have panned out since January 2019 up until last month. Interestingly just 2 winners of the comp came out with the best S/R. 8 players were in the top 4 cash prizes but it would have given 7 players a prize that wouldn't have normally received anything. I would say overall that suits most type of punter. Of course people may bet differently knowing about the new prize. In the second table i took away the upper profit limit and this highlighted the problem of players sitting on a small profit just to qualify for the Cup, I feel this would just get worse if there was a prize for the highest S/R only. I propose a prize of £20 for player with the highest SR that has at least £10 profit on the month. This prize may well go to a player in the top 4 already but the winner of the whole competition will still quite rightly win the most cash whatever the result. The second part of the new formula is to limit the amount of players qualifying for the Cup. At the minute anyone finishing in profit (or even, lol) gains automatic qualification into the following months KO Cup. This can be as many as 30+ players and this often leads to a few players reaching a profit figure and then stopping posting for last few days of the month, or even worse players reaching 15 bets and then just stopping. If we had a figure of 25 players only to qualify for the Cup then it would make it more exciting and something to aim for in the final few days of the month. I will also award a runners up prize for the KO Cup which has been asked for in the past. I am not looking to change any of the main rules of the comp, i think we should keep the main core of what the comp is all about ie; picking one horse per day. So we wont be changing that or messing about with stakes etc..... Let me know if you think this would be a way forward, please bare in mind we have a budget and we want to keep things simple. Proposals as from April 1st Winner : £60 Second : £30 Third : £20 Fourth: £10 Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20 Cup Winner: £30 Cup Runners Up: £10 Top 25 only to qualify for Cup. Table of those with the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit Table of those with the highest S/R, no upper limit on profit Those in grey did not make the £10 profit mark.
  5. 2 points

    Hunter Chase - 5.05 Stratford

    Final hunter chase before Cheltenham and we have an odds on favourite in Risk And Roll. He was impressive at Leicester having run a big race on his debut for new connections behind Shantou Flyer. This trip looks ideal and we know he handles testing ground after that Leicester win. Now he was value for more than the winning margin, but the form hasn't exactly worked out that well and the 2nd favourite O Ceallaigh was bang in contention when unseating. Given their running styles that day Stratford should suit O Ceallaigh much more than Risk And Roll. There are a few who like to be up there in this, but O Ceallaigh is likely to just play catch me if you can and if Risk And Roll gets as far back as he did at Leicester he might find it tricky making up the ground. To me this is a 5/2 the field race and as much as Risk And Roll might win he just looks a poor odds on shot all things considered. O Ceallaigh has run since at Ludlow when being a well beaten 2nd in the end to Dieu Vivant. Back down in trip at a sharper venue looks right up his street. Chase Me went through the pointing ranks last season and ended it by being well beaten in a couple of hunter chase which he didn't really have a chance of winning. One of them was the John Corbet Cup where he did make the running for a long way so it probably wasn't that bad a run. He reached a new personal best on his only start this season in January at Larkhill when beating Coco Live in a decent time. Now he did have soft ground form in Ireland, but he has avoided it over here so that does have to be a concern. Fixe Le Kap has a rating of 138 and he has run OK to a certain extent since going pointing for new connections. The problem is his best run was over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow behind Sausalito Sunrise and the way he ran last time in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill also suggested he needs a longer trip than this nowadays. He has a chance, but I'm going to pass him over. Kerisper was way behind the favourite at Larkhill and it is hard to see the 4 outsiders having much of a chance. I can't work out why Neil The Legend is so short in the betting either. He showed little in 2 runs for Nicky Henderson last year although it was reported he had a breathing problem and he has had a wind op since. His pointing form is weak though having won just a poor maiden and being stuffed in a restricted. The wind op needs to have improved him a hell of a lot. The only other one in with a chance for me is Soul Kaliber and he is quite interesting. He won 5 out of 9 points last season and seems reasonably progressive. His only run of this season came when put into open company for the first time in the race Caid Du Berlais won. He ran well as well until late on when class and fitness told. He is likely to hold a prominent pitch so again should be suited by the track. He won his maiden on soft ground as well so hopefully should be fine on that. For me only 5 look capable of winning it and as we have an odds on favourite it means there are some big prices e/w around and Soul Kaliber is the pick of those. O Ceallaigh should be much closer to Risk And Roll in the betting for me and this does look a good chance for him to get his head in front given his running style certainly compared to the favourites so he is the win bet. As mentioned above Soul Kaliber ran well in behind Caid Du Berlias last time and also looks set to be suited by this track and he is the e/w play at 14/1. O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 4/1 with most bookies Soul Kaliber 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies
  6. 2 points

    Naps - Monday March 9th

    KP13:55 Misu Pete 66/1 E/W 365
  7. 1 point
    Hopefully people have enjoyed my Road To The Cheltenham Foxhunter thread and it has helped keep everyone up to date with a race that always gets overlooked by the mainstream (and less mainstream) press despite the fact quite a lot of people actually are interested especially when you have well known horses like Minella Rocco and Don Poli involved. If you haven't seen and want to see my thoughts over the last 3 or so months then that thread is here https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/171460-road-to-the-cheltenham-foxhunters/ This year's preview clocks in at just under 4000 words and apparently will take just under 15 minutes to read. I can't guarantee I will find the winner, but hopefully it will help guide you to what you want to back in the race. I have yet to see a more in depth preview of the race so without further or do here are my thoughts on the 31 horses remaining in this year's Cheltenham Foxhunter. Alcala - Rather unusually looks set to be Paul Nicholls' only runner in this race this year. Classy horse as his peak mark of 152 suggests and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off 142. He looked set to win on his first start since July 2018 when falling 2 out at Ludlow. He then made amends when winning the Walrus at Haydock getting the better of Wishing And Hoping despite making a bad error 2 out. After that he had to go to Fontwell to qualify for this and I don't think Angus Cheleda was overly hard on him at all given he knew he only had to finish 2nd to qualify. His trainer spoke of him having two hard races, but I find it hard to believe he had much of a race last time out. My concern about his chance is his stamina. At Ludlow they went no pace so it turned into a sprint, Haydock was over 2m6f and again they went a steady enough gallop as they did over 3m2f at Fontwell. The race he won over 3m2f in 2017 was a match. If he stays he is a player, but it is enough to put me off. Arctic Skipper - Won his first two points this season, but was a well beaten 8th at Down Royal behind Dylrow on Boxing Day. He won a 3 runner point last month, but a week later pulled up and it is hard to see him being good enough. Billaway - Willie Mullins has been talking his chances up in recent weeks and I can see why given he seems to be progressive and visually he ran out an impressive winner at Naas in January. That was his 2nd run of the season having run a nice race on his return to be 2nd at Down Royal on Boxing Day just going down a length to Dylrow. That Naas race was run at an absolute crawl though and it turned into a sprint which clearly suited him perfectly. To me that makes the form a bit suspect and I can see the 2nd reversing form with him for reasons I will state later. I certainly think he is one of the possible winners though given his profile offers more than most here, but I certainly don't think his price offers any value. Bishops Road - Thrashed a very good horse in Risk A Fine at the hunter chase meeting here in May, but the 2nd didn't handle the track or the ground that day so I wouldn't take it at face value. Bizarrely he then ran in a point 3 days later when he fell. I now wonder if they were trying to qualify him for this and get it out of the way. Instead they had to do that this season and he did so when finishing 2nd in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. That was behind Wishing And Hoping and he was 2nd on his seasonal return in a point back in November. For me he has a bit too find although the trip shouldn't be a concern given he used to run over further. Caid du Berlais - The first of a trio of runners for Rose Loxton and a horse I have already put up as a bet last month. As long as the ground continues to dry out I think he has a massive chance. He ran really well on soft ground when beaten less than 4L when 5th to Pacha Du Polder in 2018. He then went onto land the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase by 21L. Last year he had a rushed prep as he picked up a minor injury and he only made his reappearance 12 days before the race. He then ran no sort of race and he was never travelling before pulling up. He then went back to Punchestown and won by an even bigger margin, 28L, than last year. This year he has had a much smoother prep as he made his seasonal return at Buckfastleigh in January and he beat Marcle Ridge by 5L which is really solid form. His trainer has mentioned she is not sure if he gets up the hill and that was the case in 2018, but if we have quicker ground on Friday I think he will. He is also 2 years older now which should help. His two Punchestown wins are two of the best pieces of form in the race and he has to go on any shortlist. Chosen Dream - Landed the Stratford Foxhunter in 2018, but was flattered by that as the ground was over watered which meant the fancied horses disappointed. He pulled up in this last year and although I am told he is really well on form it is hard to make much of a case for him Don Bersy - Won a couple of points last season, but shown better form this term for me as he beat Bishops Road in November, was 2nd to The Dellercheckout and then won by 20 at Thorpe Lodge. He then refused to race last month which is something he did in his last two starts under Rules. That has to be a big concern if you are wanting to back him, but his form doesn't look good enough anyway. His previous Rules form was all over 2m as well. Don Poli - Rare that a point to point makes the front page of the Racing Post, but he did when winning at Alnwick back in December. I think it was a good idea to send the horse to Nick Pearce to get him qualified nice and early in a couple of points. He is already a duel Festival winner having won the Martin Pipe in 2014 and then the RSA Chase the following year. In 2016 he was 3rd in the Gold Cup and he was the Lexus winner that season as well. So he clearly has plenty of back class, but the problem is he had shown any form under Rules since February 2017. He appreciated the drop in class when winning those points, but he had to be niggled in both races to keep him interested and he was made to work quite hard to win the 2nd of them. Winning a couple of small field, weak points is one thing, winning a Foxhunter is a totally different ball game though. No doubt Nick had left a bit to work on, but I wasn't impressed with what I saw at Alnwick and I think in a big field in a race that is likely to be strongly run that he will just drop himself out and not fancy it. What I will say though is if you do want to back him because he hasn't been seen since January he has been forgotten about and you are probably getting a bigger price than if he had run recently or in a hunter chase. Dunhallow Tornado - Ollie Pimlott has had a cracking start to his training career and this is a horse I really like. He looked impressive in two hunter chase wins at Catterick and Kelso 2 years ago and then found the ground too quick at Cheltenham's hunter chase night. Unfortunately he had to miss last season through injury and he returned last month at Brocklesby when getting up close home to score. That was a pleasing come back run and if it did happen to be soft/heavy on Friday I would want to be backing him. The problem is the forecast is suggesting it isn't going to be that testing and as much as he will handle it my thinking is it brings more horses into play the quicker it gets. Connections will probably be wishing this race had been on Tuesday when it was very testing and although I think he can out run his price, the drying ground is enough to stop me backing him. Dylrow - Looks an improved horse this season having beaten Mighty Stowaway on his first point start in November. He then beat Billaway at Down Royal on Boxing Day. He was then only 5th at Naas behind him the following month. That race turned into a sprint as mentioned so I do think the form is suspect, but given he was winning over 2m a year ago you would have thought that would have suited him. There is a case to say that he shouldn't really be 50/1 based on the Down Royal effort, but he wouldn't be for me. Hazel Hill - Last year's impressive winner and currently favourite to retain his crown as Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have done in recent years. There is no doubt he was the best hunter chaser around last season although there has to be a question mark about what sort of form he is currently in. After the Foxhunter win he came back for hunter chase night and just got the better of a great battle with Caryto Des Brosses. He was set to follow the same path to Cheltenham as he did last season, but Chaddesley Corbett was called off and that meant Warwick came too soon after his win at Sheriff Hutton. That told us little new, but it is the defeat to Minella Rocco at Wetherby which is the issue. He jumped badly to his right there something which he didn't do in this race year, but he did do here in May. My feeling is a small field might be to blame for that and with more horses around him he will jump straighter. I don't think he wants to make the running and that didn't help matters at Wetherby. The trainer said afterwards he was a bit sore so that was one excuse and I also think Derek O'Connor out rode Alex Edwards as well. I will talk more about that later, but I do think at the very least he will reverse form. The problem is he is hard to want to back at the current price because of his run last time and although I do think we will see a different horse here I would want a drift before backing him. The trainer is confident of a big showing and he could be a horse to get onside on the day because I think he will drift and then the doubt about what sort of form he is in will be factored into the price. If he is in the same form as last year then he clearly has a massive chance. It Came To Pass - Beat Billaway in a hunter chase at Cork last April and then probably would have finished a distant 2nd to Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown, but he unseated at 2 out. 10 days later he did then beat On The Fringe at Killarney. He won a hunter chase at Cork in Novemeber which was basically his seasonal debut as he unseated at the first the week before. Was a 24L 7th to Dylrow and Down Royal and was pulled up last time out. On balance his form suggests he has a fair bit to find. Law Of Gold - Was progressive last season and it ended in winning the John Corbet at Stratford in May. I didn't think it was the strongest renewal of the race especially as some fancied horses disappointed. Having said that Pink Eyed Pedro was 3rd and he has done well in handicaps since. He has had just the one start so far this season at Horseheath when running out an easy winner. That wasn't a strong race, but he could do no more win than as he did. The problem is I think he needs good ground and any soft in it is not going to help him. This is by far the best race he has ever been in as well and at 7 it could just be it comes at least a year too soon for him. Marcle Ridge - Won a very weak race here on hunter chase night and then was 2nd at Warwick. At the time it didn't look a great effort, but given Killaro Boy nearly won a huge prize at Uttoxeter in the summer then he did well finish within 9L of him. As mentioned above he was 2nd to Caid Du Berlais on his only run of the season so far. That was a solid effort, but also his form suggests he has to find a bit to hit the frame here. Minella Rocco - I suspect plenty of non hunter chase experts will be all over him on Friday and we will see plenty of at at his best he is the best horse in the race. I have already seen two TV presenters put him up as one of their best bets of the meeting which is crazy given they know little about hunter chases and you can be certain that neither will know anything about a horse like Law Of Gold for example. Maybe he will win, but all I keep hearing about his chances is that he was 2nd in a Gold Cup and he has won at the Festival before. The problem is that was 3 and 4 years ago now and since then he has basically been pretty poor and he was even struggling to complete. His two hunter chase wins this season were only his 2nd and 3rd wins over fences and I think he was fortunate to win those. At Warwick he benefited from Maxwell getting cramp on Bob And Co and then looked like getting beat by a horse could Kashmir Peak who has been beaten in a weak hunter chase and a weak point since. Derek O'Connor came over for the ride at Wetherby and he gave him a very clever ride to win the race and the chances are Hazel Hill ran below form. Derek kept him wide on the better ground and left it late to pounce. Reading between the lines of what Derek has written in his column in the Racing Post I don't think he fancies his chances at all and it was no surprise to me that he has said he will be riding Staker Wallace on the preview circuit. If the ground dried out a lot then I can see he will change to Minella Rocco as Staker Wallace needs cut in the ground. In my view he will get back into a bigger field at a strong pace and decide he doesn't fancy it again. I'd be tempted to place lay him on the day if he's a short enough price. Horses of his sort of profile rarely win the race nowadays and it will be a case of non hunter chase experts 1 hunter chase experts 0 if he does go and win (as was the case when Pacha Du Polder first won the race). Update: Since writing the above Derek O'Connor has surprised everyone by going with Minella Rocco over Staker Wallace. For me this could mean 3 things. 1 he things the ground is going to dry out too much for Staker Wallace and/or Minella Rocco has been working the house down at Jonjo's and he has had to go with him and/or he things the Irish horses aren't as good as the British. Now Derek has chosen him I am not as negative on his chances as I was before, although I still personally can't back him. Mr Mercurial - Been such a consistent hunter chaser over the years and his Scottish Foxhunter win was his 9th hunter chase success. I don't think he stays this far round a track like Cheltenham and he was 12th in this back in 2016 and was the same position at Aintree last year. Will run his race, but will be surprised if he is good enough to get close. Rewritetherules - Sprung onto the hunter chase scene in May last year when winning at Down Royal and Tipperary in the space of 3 days. His next run was in a handicap where he was only 6th off 116. This season he beat a useful enough field first up and then struggled to win a weak race last month. On the face of it that was a very poor effort, but the trainer said he had a stone bruise the week before and the owners were keen to run as it was their local meeting. His jockey said he got there too soon and he idled as well. So we should be expecting more here and he is progressive, but he is only 6 and you have to be very good to win this race as young as that. I am happy to pass him over. Sausalito Sunrise - Beat Ravished at Hexham last April in a hunter chase when with his former connections, but then was very disappointing at Worcester. Won the Lord Ashton Of Hyde's Cup at Cocklebarrow over 3m6f on his only start for his new connections. That was a decent enough effort, but nowhere near the level for this. Shantou Flyer - Ran a huge race to be 2nd in the race last year especially as he had to run twice in 10 days to qualify for the race after being 5th at Warwick behind Hazel Hill on his first hunter chase start. He narrowed that gap to 4L in this contest. He is now at former Paul Nicholls worker Rose Loxton's yard and he made a winning return at Larkhill in a race which has actually worked out very well. Given he was below par on his seasonal return last season I fully expect him to carry on improving and he was totally dominate at Fakenham where he had Tully Touch 25L back in 3rd and giving him 11lbs whereas Law Of Gold only beat him 12L off level weights. It was good to see Maxwell choosing to run him over Bob And Co as I think that is the right decision. The owner/rider has even said he feels a better horse this time around. He is only 10 as well and I think he has a massive chance. Southfield Theatre - Gave Lily Bradstock a lovely spin round in the race last year when 9th although that was 48L behind Hazel Hill. Did well to win the 4m race on hunter chase night here and has won two of his three points this season. On the other he was beaten by Virak which was still a decent effort. Hard to see how he can really improve on last year's 9th though. Staker Wallace - Has been a hard horse to keep sound as since making his debut in November 2015 he has only run 6 times. In 2017 on just his 4th start and after wining a maiden point he ran a really credible 3rd to Foxrock at Leopardstown. He then had 3 years off before running a huge race to finish an 8L 2nd at Naas. Given the lay off you can upgrade the performance and he followed that up with beating a solid yardstick in a point to make sure he qualified for this. Derek has been talking him up on the preview circuit and it is clear he holds him in high regard. At this stage to me he is the main Irish hope in the race. He does need soft ground so he wouldn't want to dry out and if it did I can see Derek not riding or him even not running in the race. If Derek's name is next to his on Wednesday morning then I think he will end up going off favourite for the race. I have already put him up for this ante-post. Update: As mentioned above Minella Rocco is Derek's ride although Jamie Codd has been booked so there is still a top jockey booked, but I am surprised Derek has changed his mind. Stella Notion - Was a useful handicapper for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and managed to win at Kelso off 137 in May 2018 for Tom George. He then went to Tom Frost's where he won two points at Larkhil before being beaten 38L by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell. According to the Racing Post he is now on his 3rd trainer since then having run once for Emma Clark when he was pulled up behind Hazel Hill at Sheriff Hutton in January. Now Philip Kirby trains him and I have been told that James King takes the ride which is a good jockey booking. Wouldn't be an obvious one to back, but the trainer might bring about some improvement. Top Wood - I can see Top Wood being popular e/w given his superb record in the race. He was just denied by Pacha Du Polder and Harriett Tucker two years ago and then he was 3rd to Hazel Hill last year. After that he then went and won at Aintree when he wanted it more than Burning Ambition in 2nd. He ran really well on his seasonal return when 2nd in a handicap at Ascot off 139 and he was over 15L in front of Minella Rocco. Wasn't quite as good at Haydock next time, but the ground was very testing that day. I couldn't really put anyone off wanting to back him e/w, but he is now 13 and surely he has had his best chance of actually winning the race. Kalabaloo - The only mare in the race and she was an impressive winner of the mares race on hunter chase night. Was then sent off a short price favourite for the John Corbet Cup at Stratford and was a well beaten 4th behind Law Of Gold. Has won a couple of Ladies Opens at Alnwick this season but the fact she was 1/2 and 2/5 tells you all about the quality of the opposition. My feeling is she is unlikely to be good enough, but I do think she is better than she showed at Stratford and can run a nice race. Summary - With no more rain forecast it looks like the ground is only going to get drier come race time and I would say we will be looking at good to soft all round. Ideally Staker Wallace would want it softer, but it should be OK still and even though Derek has decided not to ride, Jamie Codd has an incredible strike rate at the Festival so he is a great jockey to have still. I have to say though he is the right sort of price so I am not sure there is much value left in the price. I have no idea who will be favourite now. I would imagine Minella Rocco will be popular among the non hunter chase/pointing followers and I see Paul Kealy has tipped him up in The Weekender. Even though Derek is on him I would still be a bit surprised if he did go and win, but as I mention above I am not so strongly against him as I was. Billaway has been spoken highly by his trainer so he could be popular in the market although given how much speed he showed last time I just wonder if he wants a stamina test and I think Staker Wallace can reverse the form. Hazel Hill is touching 6/1 now and I wonder if he might drift a bit more. I might add a small cover bet on Friday if he does drift a bit more because his trainer remains confident and given he has swerved the race with Wishing And Hoping he clearly thinks he still has a massive chance despite the loss last time. That is clearly a concern, but as mentioned above there is reason to believe that he could easily bounce back here. Caid Du Berlais is the other horse I put up and he is back out to 14/1 in a couple of places now. I am topping up to make it a full point on him now especially with the extra place available. The ground should have dried up for him and I fully expect him to run more like his 2018 showing than his 2019 one. With his class I find it pretty hard to see him out of the first 5 at the very least and hopefully he can finish strongly up the hill. The main bet I am going to have though is Shantou Flyer to give David Maxwell his first win in the race. I think he has chosen the right horse over Bob And Co and he ran a really good race to finish 2nd in the race last year. He won a point which has worked out very well on his seasonal reappearance and then bolted up at Fakenham after which Maxwell said he was better than last season. If he is right then that clearly makes him a leading candidate and I think he is a big price at 9/1. Top Wood will have his fans, but I think at 13 his best chance of actually winning has gone. I know a few shrewd pointing followers are keen on Law Of Gold at a big price and I can see why up to a point as he's a progressive horse in a field where not many seem to have much of a chance. At 7 though I wonder if it is a year to early and I think he has at least 20lbs to find on form for all that he is progressive. Something usually at least places at a price, but to be honest I can't really pick one which might do so I am going to focus on the top end of the market and the proven class of Caid Du Berlais and Shantou Flyer plus the possible new star Staker Wallace. Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w (or 0.25pts e/w if already on) @ 12/1 with Bet365 @12/1 (14s available to 3 places with Betfair) Shantou Flyer 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 Already advised Caid Du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1
  8. 1 point

    Latest Table - March 2020

    Mar 9 That man Ken is at it again
  9. 1 point
    Valiant Thor

    Competition Going Forward

    I wouldnt go as far as that ( ) SR is the inverse of amount of winners and vica versa 31 is a prime number so you wouldnt get an integer so lets go for 30 As for strike rate of 20% over 30 days gives you 6 winners & 6 winners over 30 days gives you 20% the easiest way to see who is the best (or better) tipster would be to take the actual v expected sr If you sum the actual winning bets and divide by the total sum of the inverse of odds then this will give you a comparison figure you could use IE If 2 players played the same bets and Player A hits above the expected winners he gets a rating of 62% above standard ( obviously the standard would be 1 act winners = expected winners) Where as the player B who only hits the hail mary gets a rating of -68% showing its more luck than good judgement as hes not hitting the expected amount of winners for the odds played. Player A Profit = 4.98pts Player A w/l w l l l l w w w w l actual winners 5 odds 2.50 3.00 1.50 5.00 67.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00 expected winners 3.08 inverse 40% 33% 67% 20% 1% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9% A/E 62% Player B Profit = 57pts Player B w/l l l l l w l l l l l actual winners 1 odds 2.50 3.00 1.50 5.00 67.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00 expected winners 3.08 inverse 40% 33% 67% 20% 1% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9% A/E -68% That is just an extreme example but if you use the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit as the qualifier you would then be able to use the above method to decide on the better tipster from those qualifiers. Better example (if two players draw both with 50% sr & 10.88 profit but different odds) Player A is the better player Player A Profit = 10.88pts Player A w/l w w l l l w w w w l actual winners 6 odds 2.50 6.00 1.50 5.00 4.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00 expected winners 3.15 inverse 40% 17% 67% 20% 25% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9% A/E 90% Player B Profit = 10.88pts Player B w/l l w l w w w l l w w actual winners 6 odds 2.50 6.00 1.50 4.00 4.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 2.00 expected winners 3.61 inverse 40% 17% 67% 25% 25% 40% 22% 33% 42% 50% A/E 66%
  10. 1 point

    grey lays

    Welcome to PL mate
  11. 1 point

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    Yeah, it all depends on the specific conditions they have with the sponsor I guess. No tickets might mean less income, but not having a tournament also means lost TV revenues and such things.
  12. 1 point

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    Probably because of financial issues? No fans = no seling tickets. No sold tickets = less money incom for the tournament organizers. I guess that they've somehow calculated that this way their money lost will be smaller.
  13. 1 point

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    I'd hope that at least something goes ahead, even if it happens without spectators. Tennis is such a global sport that most fans watch and don't really travel anyway. Ticketing is important for the biggest events I reckon, but the smaller ones can do easily without ticket purchases, even if that means slightly reduced prize money. I'd say there's a very good chance Miami gets cancelled and then something in Europe, but, if things develop as they should, the French Open is in little danger as of now.
  14. 1 point

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    Also,a Spanish newspaper "Marca" announces the cancellation of the tournaments in Miami, Montecarlo and Rome. The entire spring tennis season is about to be canceled. https://www.marca.com/tenis/2020/03/09/5e65f323ca4741884b8b45cd.html
  15. 1 point

    Racehorse Syndicates

    thanks to @BillyHills for directing me to this forum the 3 owners group horses i have a share in are as follows My Friend Stan a 3 year old colt being trained by Mark Johnston Take Your Time a 5 year old gelding being trained by Paul Nicholls and Saunton a promising 2 year old colt being trained by Richard Hannon
  16. 1 point

    Competition Going Forward

    First of all I have no issues with the competition as it is, and I think @BillyHills does a fantastic job keeping track of everything every day. So no complaints here, just thanks. Having said that, I welcome the suggested changes because I think, for all the reasons stated by others here, the new regime will give those of us who don't get 50/1 winners something to aim at. As for S/R or number of winners - I've just spent 20 minutes arguing with myself (!!), and my other half (who walked out half way through), over which I prefer. I shan't bore you all with that sad debate, but the outcome is I think maybe number of winners with S/R as a tie-break.
  17. 1 point

    League Tables - Week 1

    *Due to the virus some Italian matches were either postponed or fixtures swapped about, probably best to leave them out for a couple of weeks at least.
  18. 1 point

    Racing Chat - Monday March 9th

    Good luck 7.40 Wolverhampton-Gmasha Each Way @ 9-2 Bet Victor She is the unexposed horse in the race
  19. 1 point

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    Aqeel Khan/Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi to beat Blaz Kavcic/Tom Kocevar-Desman at 1.45 with Parions Sport The 2 Pakistanis have been playing together for few years now and get along well on the court. In addition they have the advantage of playing at home which should transcend them to defend the colors of their country.
  20. 1 point

    Competition Going Forward

    Spot on BH. Also a prize for tipster with most winners picked and profit over £10...
  21. 1 point
    Leicester vs Aston Villa Monday night delivers a Premier League match this week with Leicester looking to take a step closer to Champions League football next season against a relegation-threatened Aston Villa in an 8pm kick-off at the King Power Stadium. There is still plenty to play for in this season and the need for wins is becoming more important than ever as the campaign enters its final days over the coming weeks. Leicester fans will be delighted to hear that star striker Jamie Vardy is likely to be fit to return to the first team this week. The Foxes have desperately missed Vardy's goals in recent weeks during a run of results that has seen just 1 win from their last 7 league games. Brendan Rodgers knows his side can close the gap on 2nd placed Manchester City with a victory to just 4 points after Pep Guardiola's side suffered a disappointing 2-0 loss away to Manchester United on Sunday afternoon. However, Rodgers will also be aware that his side have only won 1 of their last 6 home league matches. Aston Villa come into this game after the gut-wrenching EFL Cup Final defeat to Manchester City last Sunday. Dean Smith's men are in 19th place but with two games in hand and only 2 points adrift of safety they'll feel they still stand a very good chance of breaking out of the bottom three. The Villains have clearly suffered from being distracted by last weekend's cup final having lost their last 3 league games on the bounce. It's also now 3 away league games without a win. John McGinn is unlikely to feature and that's a blow for the away side. The EFL Cup Semi-Final showed that Villa are more than a match for Leicester on their day having knocked them out over two legs. I still feel this Leicester side has the potential to get back to winning ways with Wilfred Ndidi back in midfield. Villa have won just 1 of their last 10 away visits to Leicester in the league. The fact Kelechi Iheanacho has scored 6 goals in his last 5 games against Aston Villa makes me think the home side have everything going in their favour here. Leicester -1 @ 2.56 with SportNation Leicester HT/FT @ 2.15 with Boylesports
  22. 1 point
    Tough tough race ...... Imperial aura 288 Train wreck 284 Paint the dream 282 Narrowed it to this 3 but tricky race....each has their merits ....imperial is the form horse but has gone up weights .....train wreck needs to improve to win this but represents last years winning trainer and jockey ...chances .....paint the dream ran a stinker last time but if you forgive that run his previous run at chelt looked classy ...dark horse Imperial aura 10 pts win 5/1 corals Train wreck 5pts win 12/1 sky Paint the dream 5 pt win 25/1 willh
  23. 1 point

    Competition Going Forward

    Yeah that seems fair to me, well thought out Billy Hills keep up the work. 👍👍
  24. 1 point
    National Hunt Chase Traditionally this is a race I have done quite well in so I am hoping that the drop in distance doesn’t change that! Having said that, I don’t really like this years edition. Furthermore whilst it is in some ways just as important to have a good jockey as well as a good horse in this race. The figures are as follows: Carefully Selected 156 Lord Du Mensil 156 Newtide 149 Springfield Fox 149 Ravenhill 148 The Hollow Ginge 148 The reason I don’t like this race is because I have doubts over the top two. Carefully Selected made some big mistakes when running left handed last time out, the type that would put him on the deck if he did them here. Lord Du Mensil has all his best form on heavy ground at Haydock and generally speaking, I don’t rate that form when transferred anywhere else. I cant back either of these two at the current prices with those doubts. That leads us into the next 5 horses are very closely rated. Newtide is probably my favourite of the lot. He was fortunate to win last time but he is a proper stayer and he jumps well. He has one of the better jockeys on board as well so he ticks all the boxes. At 10/1 he is also an EW price. They have also talked about him as a Welsh National horse so if it does get testing it shouldn’t be a problem for him. Springfield Fox will run handily which is never a bad thing in a race like this and he won well at Exeter last time out earning him this rating. He made a few mistakes in that race and I could see that being enough to stop him from winning this but again and his price is now probably about right from being much bigger in the past. One of the best riders in this race in Jamie Codd gets the leg up on Ravenhill. He fell last time out and that will be enough to put me off in a race like this. The last one on the list is The Hollow Ginge who ran well either side of two below form performances at Haydock. He won a messy handicap last time out with only one other finisher and its hard to see that he will be good enough to win a race like this. I think he is already close to the ceiling of his ability whereas the others have more scope to improve. Saying that he has more experience that the other English runners and he is being earmarked for the National so he is clearly expected to stay. He is a big price too.
  25. 1 point
    Champion Hurdle Another wide open championship race on day one. There are lots of horses rated very similarly but I think we will have to see a horse run to around 165+ to win this. With that in mind, my eye is on the following: Call Me Lord 158 Cilaos Emery 160 Darver Star 160 Sharjah 163 Supasundae 159 Epatante 164 I might as well start with the closest horse to that mark in Epatante. The first concern is Cheltenham based on last seasons run. I don't believe it will be an issue and if anything it will have more to do with the hood. First time hood wearers at the festival have a terrible record and I watched her run up the hill and despite Gerraghty stop riding her up the hill, she wasn't packing it in by any means. What I did see in that race was some frailties with her jumping. Down the back straight she got on the back foot at two or three, losing ground. She did a similar thing to one at Kempton on the far side too, without losing too much ground. The most curious run was at Newbury. Seemingly not fancied as much as her stablemate by Henderson, she actually looked as though she would lose out to another Henderson horse between the last and second last before powering away. Her jump at that last flight was terrible as well. She absolutely winged the final flights at Kempton and the question is whether she can repeat that Christmas Hurdle run at Cheltenham. I think she can, but she cant afford any errors, and even if she does repeat that performance, there will still be others a lot closer than they were at Kempton. I would really like to see her come and blow these boys away, and she does seem to have that potent turn of foot to do so. I see no reason why she shouldn't be bang there but I would like to see her drift a little before I back her. The stablemate CML is an interesting enough one. I think he will improve for the better ground but the trip might be a bit trappy at this level. He will need a good pace to go close IMO. I could see him running a race in the low 160's without being good enough. The Irish form is interesting. Supasundae is likely to run to around the 160 mark and not be good enough to win but he will give us a good guide to the form. If they beat him (and Ballyandy) well, then it will be a good edition, which on paper it doesn't look to be at the moment. Sharjah is a lottery. Very much capable of running between 165 and 170 but I have no idea whether he will run his race. Cilaos Emery was going to the Champion Chase until February when he fell. He ran well enough last time out back over hurdles, beating the re-opposing Durasso handily but he didnt look like a winner of this. He is another that falls into the likely to run well without winning category. This then leaves Darver Star, who has been tipped up quite a bit by Kevin Blake. I wrote him off until I watched the last two runs back, running OK behind the best Irish novices before going on to better to finish with a rattle behind Honeysuckle. I can really see him flying up the hill. He jumped really quickly over the last two that day and a horse finishing like that always catches my eye. Honeysuckle would be a short price here and DS would have beaten her in another 100-200 yards. He has improved bundles this season already and I wouldnt expect much more but this test looks ideal and I could see him finishing best. I can see myself back Epatante on the day when she drifts or with the bookmaker concessions and having a nibble on Darver Star EW.
  26. 1 point
    Kingdom for

    Competition Going Forward

    The competiton, as is, is excellent. I would continue to play if the rules did not change. I am thinking "what is there not to like?"; Forum, I can choose my horses with any objective, I bump into others who want to have fun, and this fella @BillyHills does all the hard work in administering, monitoring, reporting. And no subscription and for the skillful few prizes! 😃 Proposed changes: All good. looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month... Proposals as from April 1st ............ Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20 ............ Cup Runners Up: £10 These are all welcome. I particularly like the transferrence of league money to the 2 extra prizes. Top 25 only to qualify for Cup. Is this top 25 even if not in profit? Other: I am more than impressed by the stalwarts of the forum. The dozen or so punters who posted over 340 predictions over 2019, a lot of whom stayed in profit for the year. Now that is consistent in every which way.
  27. 1 point

    Competition Going Forward

    A very well thought out idea @BillyHills I would be happy with either number of winners or S/R, whichever is easiest for you given all the hours you put in.
  28. 1 point
    First "Banker" of the week already in...as the Racing Post increases its price by 30p a day and 70p on Saturdays!
  29. 1 point
    Well do you? I've got your pens all over the bloody house, I blame it on the other half
  30. 1 point
    I didnt forget you, you were eliminated for not showing up 4 times!! You never re-applied in the new players thread either. I will put you in Div 8 @MABS
  31. 1 point

    Non-League Predictions > March 7th

    Hopefully the weather allows most if not all games to take place on Saturday and I have 7 bets. Fairly brief preview this week because of time. Maidenhead v Boreham Wood Nearly got paid out on Boreham Wood on Saturday and they travel to a Maidenhead side who are struggling at the moment. This should be 3 points for the away side and any odds against looks a good price. Halifax v Woking Bit of a drift on Halifax although hard to see why. I opposed Woking in their last away game at Notts County and they got their first away point in 6 games. Since then they have picked up 4 points at home, but their win against Maidenhead last week was their first in 5 games and I am not sure that says a lot. Halifax's loss at Torquay is their only league defeat in 9 games. Farsely v Hereford Quite simply if Hereford can repeat their performance in their 4-1 win at York on Tuesday they will win this. That is no guarantee but at the price I am happy to pay to find out. Maidstone v Welling Maidstone have lost 4 on the bounce now and look badly out of form. They lost 5-1 at Weymouth last weekend and Welling, who have won 5 of their last 7 look more than capable of winning this. Oxford City v Chippenham Chippenham's only loss in 5 games came against Welling and they have won the other 4. I mentioned that Mike Cook would be more than capable of getting them out of trouble and make them hard to beat as he did at Gloucester last season. They have only lost 2 of their last 9 and they look value to win at an inconsistent Oxford. Basford v Buxton Taking a flyer here as Buxton are much improved since the change of manager and although they go to 2nd in the table Basford have only won once in their last 4. With Buxton unbeaten in 6 they are worth taking a chance at a big price. Walton Casuals v Hendon It is just 2 points in their last 10 games for the home side and after losing a couple Hendon were back to form with a 3-3 draw against Taunton. They look a good price at odds against. Boreham Wood 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betway Halifax 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365 Hereford 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor Welling 2pts @ 2/1 with BetVictor and Betway Chippenham 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor Buxton 1pt @ 6/1 with BetVictor Hendon 2.5pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor
  32. 1 point
  33. 1 point
    Same here with the pen but the cups still going strong although well coffee stained
  34. 1 point
    Burnley and the Joker please
  35. 0 points
    Wolves please As I have gone out in round one of the last two of these, l apologise now to anyone who has made the same choice !
  36. 0 points
    Could do with a new pen and cup. Me pens run out and me cups got a chip in it. 😭😭
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