So close to landing a massive price treble in midweek with Maidstone drawing in the end against Macclesfield although a 2nd injury time winner in two days was always going to be a tough ask. Results really are all over the place in the National League at the moment and it certainly pays to pick and choose what games to get involved with and even then not get too heavily involved unless there is very good reason for doing so. I do have one bet in the division this weekend, but the main ones yet again come from lower down the pyramid.
Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead
I just get the sense that Maidenhead are beginning to coast a little bit as we reach the tail end of the season. They don't really have anything to play for now as they can't reach the play-offs and they are a big price to end up in the bottom 4. A 1-1 draw against Boreham Wood was a fair result, but they were poor last Saturday when losing to Barrow as they were the Saturday before when losing 7-1 at Gatsehead. Indeed in their last 10 away games they have only beaten Hartlepool and Guiseley which doesn't say an awful lot. Ebbsfleet haven't played for two weeks so certainly no excuse about them having tired legs and they won 4 on the bounce prior to a 1-1 draw against Leyton Orient. They do have the odd blip at home and defeat to Chester and a 3-0 loss to Boreham Wood weren't great, but otherwise they have been hard to beat. They still have a chance of the play-offs so have plenty to play for unlike their opposition. I think the home side should be a shade of odds on here so 13/10 with Marathon makes plenty of appeal.
FCUM v Bradford Park Avenue
The home side look a massive price here. I have written a few times about FCUM's great home form and their last 10 home games record reads won 7 drawn 2 and lost 1, That is impressive especially for a team who are in a relegation battle. It is their away form that has been the big problem, but their home should see them safe. They have played 2 games more than their opponents here, but they are actually only 4 points below them in the table which shows how congested it is. Bradford haven't won in 5 now and that includes a defeat to bottom side North Ferriby. They have won just once in their last 10 games. You get the sense after over achieving for most of the season that they are getting close to where they should be in the table. I think the home side should be favourites so the fact they can be backed at 85/40 with Marathon makes them a good bet.
Southport v Alfreton
Southport aren't quite odds against this week as the bookies are slowly catching up with their form. Another 3-0 win against AFC Telford last Tuesday means they have now scored 3 goals in their last 5 games and have conceded just once as well. That is impressive form and I think they can continue that run against a struggling Alfreton side who were pretty poor when losing to AFC Telford on Tuesday night. With Southport having had a near two week break that should mean they are fresher than Alfreton as well. Regular readers will know I don't often tip up odds on shots but at Marathon's 17/20 I think they offer plenty of value still. Whilst I was writing the previews it was announced that Ross Hannah is joining Southport on loan until the end of the season and that is a plus for me.
Hemel Hempstead v Gloucester City
I am going to back my own side on Saturday and it is a game I am going to as well. Hemel have threatened to play a part in the title race all season, but that has realistically gone now and they have to concentrate on finishing in the play-off places. That could be easier said than done because they have only won one of their last 6 games and they have blown leading positions against Chelmsford and Dartford. Now Chelsmford are 6th and Dartford 2nd so a Gloucester side in 12th place should be an easier test. But Gloucester are the form side in the division right now. They have only lost once in their last 9 and that came against top side Havant when they only had 10 men and even then they were unlucky to lose. Given issues off the field and the fact it looked like we were going to be fighting for relegation at the turn of the year it is quite staggering that we even have half an eye on the play-offs. Granted Hemel don't lose at home all that often, but they have lost to Poole and Hungerford in their last 5 home games so they have been fair from bomb proof of late. Gloucester are nearly 3/1 with Marathon which looks big to me as I think we should be around the 2/1 mark.
Lowestoft v Burgess Hill
Backing a side who have only picked up 1 point in their last 9 games is hardly something you would expect me to do and usually it would be a crazy thing to do, but I have to take Lowestoft on again. Burgess Hill are bottom and a bit detached although they do have games in hand and this really is a must win if they want to survive. These are clearly two bad teams, but the bookies still haven't caught up with the problems at Lowestoft and at 16/5 with BetVictor the away side have to be worth a punt as they shouldn't be that price.
Ebbsfleet 1.5pts @ 13/10 with Marathon
FCUM 2pts @ 85/40 with Marathon
Southport 4pts @ 17/20 with Marathon
Gloucester 1pt @ 72/25 with Marathon
Burgess Hill 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor