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Solihull v Sutton I was kicking myself for not backing Boreham Wood to beat Sutton in the FA Trophy replay on Tuesday night. Given Sutton’s away form and the fact they ended up with just 9 men on the pitch in the first game it really was an obvious bet, but for some reason I left it alone. They ended up getting stuffed and it is hard to understand why they aren’t favourites for this let alone priced up at 19/10 (various). Granted Sutton have two games in hand, but Solihull are actually 1 point above their visitors in the table. They have gone through some changes in the squad and I did think they might begin to suffer as a consequence, but that hasn’t really happened and they have been performing well. Sutton’s players will be thinking about Arsenal already and given there away form is so bad, Solihull rate a pretty strong bet at the prices. Southport v Dagenham & Redbridge Southport’s chairman can’t resist a manager change and to me it was pretty harsh to get rid of Steve Burr. Andy Preece got the job in the week and he has a very tough game to get his tenure underway. Southport’s issues are defensive at the moment and it will be a tough ask for Preece to get them sorted at the first time of asking. They didn’t play too badly against Gateshead last week, but they still lost 3-0. Dagenham meanwhile have been scoring goals for fun of late and will take plenty of confidence from the injury time winner they scored against Chester last week. They really have turned a corner over the past month and they look title contenders again. I am surprised they aren’t odds on and William Hill’s 11/10 is worth taking. Acca All the troubled clubs who I have been opposing are playing teams who are very short this week so I have come up with a four-fold which pays 4.6/1 with Marathon. Dartford continued their good form when beating Whitehawk easily last Saturday and they should overcome Gosport. Speaking of Whitehawk they did eventually stop the rot with a point against Eastbourne on Tuesday, but they now face a flying Ebbsfleet and they shouldn’t have too many issues in beating them. In the Ryman Premier Merstham did finally win away from home last time, but going to an Enfield Town side who are hoping to get in the play-offs will be a much tougher task. In the Evo-Stik Northern Premier high flying Nantwich should have too much for Sutton Coldfield.

Bordeaux - Paris Saint Germain Full Event Away -0.75 (AH) @ 1.826 5/10 PINNACLE Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 10 Feb 2017, 20:45 Match between 7th and 2nd team of Ligue 1 will be played on Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux and it will start at 20:45 on Friday. Bordeaux is coming to match after comfortable win in Caen (0-4). I need to admit that result did surprise me, but when I saw the goals, picture was clearer. First goal came because of critical mistake of 21 year old Leborgne, second goal after disastrous reaction of goalkeeper, third again after bad covering of Leborgne, who was totally lost in this game and I don't know why Garande let him on the pitch for 90 minutes. He was included also in 4th goal, and for whole match he had big big problems with Kamano. PSG is coming to match after unfair win, while they scored in last seconds of the match from clear offside. Even though they were much much better side, totally in control of the match, Areola made critical mistake and de Preville scored in 86th minute. Trapp is back in training process, but it's not sure if he will be in the goal this time, as Emery said that he still has full confidence for both goalkeepers. Also Marco Veratti is back, which means that only Pastore and Krychowiak will miss the match. If PSG wouldn't have match against Barcelona on Tuesday, my stake would be higher. Without doubts, quality is on their side, importance of the match as well, as they have chance to put pressure on Monaco, while Nice is back on winning tracks as well, so not even second place is not sure. Thiago Silva has spoken to the media and admit that Emery is tactically great coach, and that players are more and more adapted to his style of thinking, football, etc. I am talking about that for month and half, that if players will get Emery's ideas, than they could be much much stronger in future. Motta is suspended for the match in CL, so we can expect him on the pitch tonight. The only one who might be rested is Draxler, but I am not even sure about that. This match is too important, as failure can cause 5 points gap with Monaco and maybe even 3 points gap with Nice. On the other hand we have Bordeaux who's key players of midfield are Toulalan (33y), Plasil (35y) and "newbie" Sankhare. I expect nothing but defending by them, while in attack it won't be as easy as it was in Caen in midweek. All in all odds on PSG -0,75 jumped from 1,63 on 1,83 after mid-week round, and all of that because of 0-4 win of Bordeaux in Caen? I disagree with that. Cup match finished with 1-4, while I can perfectly remember match of Monaco here (0-4). PSG will take this one!

Gilles Muller/Roberto Bautista Agut over 2.5 sets at 2.50 with bet365 I think this one might go over 2 sets since we have two players in form playing excellent tennis. Gilles is serving as good as usual and Roberto also and their play from the baseline is alright too. Looks to me as if it could be 3 sets. It's 4-2 head to head to RBA. Last season RBA won in straight sets in the semis of Sofia and he also won in the Rio olympics by the same scoreline as in last years edition of Sofia and that is 7-6 6-4 and 6-4 7-6. But this time I think there might be 3 sets. With the odds 2.50 it's worth a try.

Provisional bets here, will have a further look tomorrow. Might not place wagers on all of them either. West Ham - WBA I can see a resurgence on West Ham's side, with Bilic's men looking up like the giant killers they were last season. The replacement of Payet with Snodgrass seems to be a positive one and the morale of the team is looking up. Pulis' men are fit to go and keep the scoreline low as usual. Philips and Rondon have slowed down a bit but Morrisson seems to have stepped up. I expect a cagey affair. U2.5 @ 1.833 (58% for WH and 67% for WBA at FT) HT X @ 2.15 -> the Hammers have been drawing 67% of their home games at HT and WBA drawing 67% of their away games at HT Man Utd - Watford Mourinho's men have some decent fixtures ahead and they cannot afford to drop any further points, especially at OT which used to be a fortress. As a United fan, I would hope Martial to start and Pogba to perhaps be given a break and come on as a sub. Zlatan signalled his intent in an interview where he reiterated his desire to keep them goals coming. Watford won last week vs Arsenal away and will have high spirits but I think that result reflects more on Arsenal's ability than Watford's prowess. U2.5 @ 2.25 (probably best value) -> 58% for United, 46% for Watford at FT & 67% and 58% for H2H respectively (I personally think H2H is irrelevant in EPL) United to win 1-0 or 2-0 @ 3.40 (combo correct score) Swansea - Leicester Swansea look like someone lit a fire under their arse and they are feeling the pressure. LEI on the other hand look to be in freefall. Ranieri given 'vote of confidence', team is tired from overtime in FA cup vs Derby too. They struggled to beat Derby who were only playing 3-4 main players too. Granted, LEI rested their main players as they are anticipating this game but their away form speaks for itself (still winless!). As you can deduce, my reasoning comes from Leicester's terrible situation/form. Swansea +1/DC @ 1.33 for those playing doubles/trebles etc. Swansea win @ 2.45 BTTS @ 1.75 1 & BTTS @ 4.6 Obviously stake accordingly. Middlesbrough vs Everton Everton looked formed now and I will back them again for a win. Lukaku being streaky as he is, scored 4 goals last week and I don't see why he cannot build on that. No surprise omissions here, expect them to be full strength. Middlesbrough will probably be missing Ramirez for this game. They have looked a bit toothless and tired. I can't see their defence withstanding Everton's frontline and moreso, they seem incapable of outscoring opponents. The quality mismatch here sees me backing Everton. Everton win @ 2.1 is easily the best bet here. Not even going to bother with any other markets, I will take the 2.1 and run. Bournemouth vs City Bournemouth will be reeling after last week's result. It's funny how February sets apart the boys from the men and they also look to be suffering. Daniels and Francis potentially might be back which I reckon would be a major boost. Unfortunately, they are coming up against a City side feeling the pressure of the top 4, Pep looks fired up and Jesus seems to be replacing Kun. City also 2nd in away table and Bournemouth languishing around 10th. Honestly, quality speaks for itself but I don't like most of these markets. O3.5 @ 2.30 -> small stake from me Liverpool vs Spurs This is a massive game, not for punters but for all fans of the EPL. Liverpool play great vs the top 6 and unexpectedly drop points elsewhere. Mane back and Lallana moved back to midfield as per usual. Spurs have the quality but not sure if they will cause an upset. I can see this game going either way and Liverpool will have a statement to make given their abysmal start to 2017. BTTS @ 1.66 Correct Score 1-1 @ 7 Arsenal vs Hull Again, teams who look like their fortunes are changing. I personally think Silva has done a great job so far at Hull, even if he sold Snodgrass. They look a different team and he has obviously brought in his own staff but also players. Arsenal look to be embarking on their usual February crumble stage and this complicates the markets for this game IMO. This game is a must-win for both teams. Not a lot of value here but being the Greek that I am, might punt on Hull. Hull +2 EH @ 2 Burnley - Chelsea I believe the other punters here covered it well. home form vs general form/quality. Chelsea should win it, as a United supporter I hope they don't but Hazard had a blinder last week and might be up for a few more. Burnley defend really well at home and seem to get decisions go their way at Turf Moor. U2.5 @ 2.00 Chelsea 0-1 or 0-2 (combo correct score) @ 3.6 Sunderland - Soton Sunderland surprised everyone by smashing Palace last week. Great result for them as they look to peel themselves off the relegation zone. Confidence will do this team wonders and Defoe will lead the boys in the battle. Soton haven't impressed me at all this season, perhaps defensively at times but that's about it. Since Austin's injury, none of their players have really stepped up (looking at you Redmond and Tadic) perhaps with the exception of Jay Rodriguez. Leaning towards BTTS @ 1.90 or Sunderland +1/DC @ 1.775. Not touching this one for now, I await other punters thoughts. Best of luck.

First, well done to the OP. I don't think this will go anywhere but it will improve you as a bettor and make you think about different ways to price up markets and eventually you will pivot and come up with something new and take some of what you have learned from this experiment. To reply to Xtc12 when talking about long term statistically significance I would need a backtest of about 1,000 games and much more preferably 10,000. I am not a high volume bettor and will never reach 10,000 bets but my approach can't really be back tested as I look at many different factors which no formula can replicate but I started betting at 18 and lost for about the first 2 years doing the usual accumulators on the top teams. It didn't work and I looked to approach it from a range of different areas and through trial and error over the years have developed my betting strategy which has led to each season being profitable for me over the last 10 years. I only bet football and no formula will adapt to this sport well. I have seen some people using complicated algorithms have great success with baseball but I'm talking about a team of people who have maths related PhDs and quite good programmers putting in a couple of years work that are far more advanced than ELO which was originally designed for chess and people try to use it for soccer and other low scoring sports but it doesn't work but looks great when a tout tries to tell inexperienced bettors that its computer generated tips which take human emotion out of the equation and other marketing nonsense. As an experiment take a game of your choice and play manager for both teams. What are each players strengths and weaknesses? How do you expect the main players to match up against their direct opposition player? What tactics do you think each team will employ against the opposition? Can you pick a couple of teams that have a similar standard and playing style to the teams that are playing in your chosen game. How did those teams fare when they played against the opposition (and their similar teams)? What strategy did the opponent employ against these teams. 1 game should take 2 to 3 hours analysis. If you see something along the way that makes the game not appealing you can stop analyzing it so you don't spend 2 hours on every game, just the ones that look promising for a bet. Pick 2 leagues, stick to that. If some guy is tipping 8 leagues and 4 different sports he hasn't a clue how to gamble successfully, he is a sports fan that fancies a gamble. If some guy tells you he analysed 30-50 games a week and he is not a full time bettor he probably at best has some basic formula that he throws in some numbers from the league table which can't tell him if the odds on offer represent value. It doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of match analysis. The margins in this game are very small and there is little room for error. Professional sports bettors have a level stakes profit long term in the region of 4% to 8% in the vast majority of cases. If you took 100 average bettors and asked them to spend 1 season just picking 3 games a week to research and chose 1 bet I guarantee you that 80%+ would improve their net profit/loss at the end of the season and learn how to bet on sports which is very different than being a sports fan.

Newport are a dangerous one. Unbeaten in their last five I think it is but still not really looking like a team that will win games regularly. However, top of the table Doncaster have to be fancied at that price. Watch it end in a draw now! Championships ratings are now up there in case you guys haven't seen as well. What are we thinking? I saw Ladbrokes promoting the 3-0 outcome for the Sheffield Wednesday versus Birmingham game tonight at 12.00. Did anyone get on that?

Goal and (RU) tryscorers are my "specialism" in as much as I have one, at least in terms of probably accounting for more of my bets than any other single type of bet, Dipping my toe into League to see if the same approach works or not. In tonight's Cas/Leigh game I've bought Eden's try minutes at 24 with SPIN. Heard a favourable mention for the prospects of him scoring and I'd equate that to around 11/8 anytime when he's actually 10/11 at most. Has a ratio of a try roughly every other game. Also topped up on Roberts at the eye catching 11/2 anytime with Spreadex, having followed someone in on him at a reasonable looking 3/1 earlier.

I've just jumped on Doncaster to win v Newport at 1.95 Seems far too nice a price given how bad Newport have been this season. Doncaster have the 3rd best away record in the league and are coming in on hot form ( 1 defeat in 9) whereas their opponents have a number of injury concerns according to their coach. Newport also with 1 win in last 15. The hosts are unbeaten in four but I feel that was the side playing close to max potential. The pitch is suppose to be absolutely terrible tonight so that will help Newport but I expect Doncaster to be too strong. If you wanna win the title this is exactly the kind of game you have to win.

I'm looking at Real Betis vs Valencia. There's usually goals in this, and over 2.5 goals 2.00 @Bet365 looks great value.

Guys, dont forget to have a look at our very own racecards on the Punters Lounge Now included as well as all the runners and form we have the previous winners and all the latest odds comparison tables. https://www.punterslounge.com/horse-racing/racecards Example: Denman Chase at Newbury

Benoit Paire/Dustin Brown over 2.5 sets at 2.37 with bet365 Taking this because it seems to me both players have been playing well so far and both previous encounters between them have gone the distance. Dustin has a 2-0 lead in the head to head but as I've said it's been three sets both times and the price is higher on over 2.5 sets then it is to back Dustin. So I'm happy to back the match to go over 2 sets.

Grantham v Stourbridge Both teams on an amazing run of form. Stourbridge having lost once in the last 15 league matches (a 4-1 defeat away to Sutton Coldfield at end of Jan), Grantham are unbeaten in the last 15, seeing them rise to 6th in the table, 4 points behind second placed Stourbridge. Blyth are running away with the league on 65 points (10 ahead of stourbridge). The bookies make Stourbridge slight favourites, however, Stourbridge have lost 2 of the last 4; after the sutton Coldfield loss (their last away match), they played in the league cup and lost 4-1 at home... to Grantham! I think Grantham must have the upper hand in this one, knowing they beat Stourbridge 3 weeks ago, racing to get into the play-offs, while stourbridge cant catch Blyth but are safely in the play-offs. http://www.stourbridgefc.com/teams/61056/news/grantham-town-v-stourbridge-match-preview-1751997.html - Stourbridge match preview http://www.granthamtownfc.com/teams/59867/match-centre/2-40463 -match report Stourbridge 1 - Grantham 4. Grantham @ 2.45

Southwell 15.00 Sir Billy Wright @ 25/1 betfred e/w thanks Sir Billy Wright.....from David Evans yard the 6yo usually goes well after a long break he's been off track for 70 days after his last run at Wolverhampton AW 6f when he finished 8th of 12 runners in this class 3 he's in today, He has won four times from 5f to 7f including a win on the all-weather, He had a 2nd and 3rd here about this time last year with the 2nd place coming in class 2 off 82 mark, he goes off that mark today and has Clifford Lee in saddle claiming 5lbs

Yeovil v Leyton Orient Yeovils last 11 home matches W6 D3 L2 (losses to doncaster and barnet), and have the 6th best home record in the division, their lowly league position is due to their poor away record. Their last home win was against 2nd placed Plymouth. Im going to repeat what i said the other week about Orient - Leyton Orient are currently on an extremely poor run of form which has seen them pick up just four points from their last six games. Since the turn of the year, they have lost three games in a row; 4-0 away to Exeter, 3-1 at home to Barnet and 2-1 away to Portsmouth. (*Thats now 6 in a row!) - Fans think the club are moments away from administration, let alone relegation, and players are leaving as quicvkly as they can.The Orient chairman has put half the players on the transfer list, 4 have already gone, and the fans are well p**sed off. A quote from their fans forum which just about sums it up ( http://leytonorientforum.co.uk/topic19851.html ) "Simply can't see anything other than another defeat here. To be honest, I'm so disillusioned with everything to do with the club that I can't actually see us being able to beat anybody." http://www.ytfc.net/news/article/2016-17/preview-yeovil-town-v-leyton-orient-3566175.aspx Orient are abasket case of a club, cant see their youngsters getting anything here. Yeovil @ 1.91 Yeovil to win to nil @ 3.10 Mansfield v Hartlepool Boss Steve Evans has no new injury worries ahead of the contest, with just defenders Kyle Howkins and George Taft unavailable with their respective knee and hamstring issues. Stags are currently on a seven-match unbeaten run in Sky Bet League Two which dates back to the New Year's Eve draw with Doncaster Rovers at One Call Stadium. Since the draw with the league-leaders, Stags have drawn one and won five of the following six matches, conceding just one goal in that time. Last time out, goals from midfielder Ben Whiteman and striker Shaq Coulthirst earned a 2-0 victory over Barnet at the Hive Stadium. Hartlepool have enjoyed a slight upturn in form since manager Dave Jones took the reins last month. The former Sheffield Wednesday boss watched Pools' victory over Stevenage from the stands before taking charge of the 3-1 defeat against Newport County and the 1-1 stalemate with Yeovil Town last week. Pools last 8 matches - W2 D2 L4, in last 8 away matches they are W0 D2 L6. Think Mansfields run will continue here, Pool are poor travellers, but often manage to score. Read more at http://www.mansfieldtown.net/fixtures-results/match-preview/index.aspx#GtiDcBoRBotFRPqd.99 Mansfield to win and over 2.5 goals @ 2.63

Ok so I woke to a free bet in one of my accounts today so I've placed it on Bordeaux Double Chance v PSG As mentioned before, PSG have been quite slack of late V Dijon and Lille whilst never really dominating at any stage at (H) v Monaco. I don't think this PSG will win the league. They are weaker than previous seasons and their rivals have improved. Cavani, for all his great movement and work ethic is nowhere near the player Ibra was for them. If you put Zlatan in this PSG side I'd think they'd win the league. Without him the fine margins such as Cavani's continuous ability to miss clear cut chances will have an impact. The owners of PSG came in to the club in order to have them win the Champions League. That is the clubs main goal. Im sure the PSG coach has been told in no uncertain terms that that is the remit. With Barcelona coming up next Tuesday, I'd be stunned if one or two heads from a squad full of overpaid prima donnas don't let their thoughts drift to that match. Bordeaux on excellent form and importantly for me, they are a side that of late have been scoring plenty goals and therefore can be a danger to anyone on their day. The team will also be determined to right the wrongs of the thrashing they took off the same team in the cup. Sides general pick themselves up for the 2nd match in situations like this and hopefully tonight Bordeaux does just that tonight.

Perth Glory won 5-0, WON £14 Bank now £710.35 Week One ~ Won £110.35. ~ Average Weekly Profit £110.35 ~ Average Weekly Target £60

Much tougher EPL card this week with hardly any value to speak of imo. Maybe Sunderland on a + since I don't like Southampton without Van Dijk and Fonte. They just look like one of those marooned in midtable, here have 3pts off us teams. Imagine what they'll be like after the league cup final, probably wont win another game for the rest of the season and stay up with 29 points due to Palace and Middlesbrough being total shite. Anyway no bets for me as yet, Sunderland price seems to reflect ELO ratings so hardly value bet of the century in any case. Your gut instincts have to take over more in this part of the season and I don't have strong feelings for any selections at present. Can't complain though, markets have opened up in recent weeks with some nice valuation errors here and there, it's been good.

I fancy Betis - Valencia and Las Palmas - Sevilla BTTS double. Will come back to this when @betcatalog chimes in....

Holmes won 70-72, Day won 69-73, WON £21.35 Bank now £696.35. Profit to date £96.35

Hey guys Per DNB at 2.2 = I agree with vasili here Bri DNB at 2.35 = I agree with vasili again! City decimated by suspensions lolz CC DNB at 5.5 = Cc in a bit of form atm so happy to go with value here Gl

No problem backing PSG for me, the way i see it is that PSG struggled against strong middle team sometimes, oftenly by lack of motivation, but they usually crushed them, and moreover PSG almost never struggle against a team which try to play, offer decent football, and try to be offensive like this 2017 Bordeaux ;-) Yes PSG had a few bad games, but it's not the same team anymore.. I've a strong feeling they'll be able to beat Bordeaux, knowing Monaco is gonna beat Metz they won't let go the match, and Emery will motivate his players telling them that the best players on the pitch tonight will play against Barça.. So in my mind it could be a 3-0 easy win for Paris with 11 warriors.. (but i know it could be a shitty draw with PSG players not taking any risks, avoiding contacts, but usually PSG win those match before the CL..). Bordeaux won't be able to stop a big PSG in champions league mode... I'm backing Paris at 1,65 of course (combined with a win of Napoli also playing tonight, or Monaco tomorrow, haven't decide yet... total odds around 2,1)

@StevieDay1983 Over the moon mate can't wait for April 2nd now! We finally deserve something positive after years of hurt. But we've got to put it to one side and focus on trying to survive in League One, which is looking highly doubtful at the minute. I just hope we play the nice football we played in the first half instead of the "hoof ball" we've been playing so far under Slade. Our very young defence coped well with Akinfenwa after his goal. With no league wins in our last 13 matches I think we need to win 3 out of our next 4 (or 2 wins and a draw minimum) in order to push ourselves back in the survival race. We really do need to win at Oldham and keep the positive energy going from Tuesday's win. The protests against SISU were put to one side on Tuesday but may return. We had 11,700 there Tuesday night, we'll take 40,000 to Wembley, but only 200 sold so far for Oldham. My bets for the weekend will be: - SHEFF WEDS - Strong side with alot of firepower up front - ASTON VILLA - Much needed home win to get season back on track - BRIGHTON - Strong home side, win to keep pace with Newcastle - DERBY - Another team with plenty of firepower. Home win to chase the playoffs - CELTIC - Will want to add Scottish FA Cup to their impending league title.

Napoli in the eight most recent games has six wins and two draws, offers the best offensive line in the division with 55 goals assets. Genoa seven most recent games has five defeats and two draws away from Genoa usually not do a whole away two wins, two draws and seven defeats with goals 10-21. Napoli did not think today have trouble on the field with Genoa, is a class above SSC NAPOLI vs GENOA CFC @@ -1.50 AH SSC NAPOLI, odds 1.85

Bordeaux whole league has 15 to 24 under 2,5 and 8 to 12 under 2,5 in her stadium. The PSG has the best defensive line with 18 conceded goals, which is why it has 15 to 24 no goal total in the league. and 7 to 12 no goal away. The two teams have good defenses, today I expect tough game and I don’t see a lot of goals FC GIRONDINS BORDEAUX vs PARIS SAINT GERMAIN @@ +2.75 Under, odds 1.86

Mansfield @3/4 are my nap. They are in great form and hartlepool are poor and woefull away from home. Can't see anything other than a home win for mansfield.

Mainz v FC Augsburg Mainz: Bungert (7/1 d, doubtful), Berggreen (0/0 f), Onisiwo (13/1 f) FC Augsburg: Kohr (14/1 m, suspended), Callsen-Bracker (0/0 d), Caiuby (2/0 m), Koo (15/2 m), Moravek (8/0 m), Finnbogason (6/1 f) Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

Having seen Leeds in the flesh last week they are a pretty physical side who rely on set plays a lot and superior fitness. If you can not let their physicality knock you out of your stride you might have a chance of getting something from the game....I won't be backing you though lol.

Gone for Greenwood try minutes at 13 with Spreadex in the opener. A hasty bet and a foray into the relevant unknown but price looks ok for a low risk interest.

Feb 9 Rainbow goes for gold

B3.20 Barton Gift 14/1 William Hill

let's just agree that valencia will get red carded, concede a penalty and lose 5-0 because that's what they are good at and we can't lose

Aldershot v Barrow Both teams pushing for the play-off and are separated by just one point. Theres a massive difference is in form though. Aldershot last 8 games - W5 D2 L 1, since december theyve won 3 and drawn1, scoring 8 and conceding just 1. Barrow are the opposite, with only 1 win since november (although against Lincoln),Last 8 - W1 D3 L4, according to their forums theyre poor at set peices, good at the back, and have a 'direct' style of play (hoof the ball to the tall striker!), Barrow have a lot of injuries and rely a lot on loanees, also one of their main strikers (Harrison) is injured. Aldershot @ 2.10 York v Maidstone Saw York at Nuneaton at the weekend and they were all over us, excellent passing team, not one that id expect to be in bottom position. They also seemed to have turned the corner and the 3-0 win over us will give them a definite boost, the club are calling this game 'the biggest of the season' as a win would but them above maidstone on goal difference. Their last 8 reads - W2 D4 L2, and they have lost once since the 3rd Jan. Maidstones form - W1 D1 L6, they have only 2 clean sheets all season, the last in October, and have the second worst goal difference and goals conceded record in the division. Looking at the forums, the club arent taking this one as seriously as York, and seem to think they are 'too good to go down'. York @ 1.70 Merthyr v Chesham The Merthyr bandwagon shows no sign of stopping! Merthyr have been good to me in recent weeks and i think that will continue against Chesham, who now look out out of the title race. Since early Jan Chesham are W1 D1 L2 (the win was against lowly St Neots). Merthyr on the other hand are unbeaten since early December, since then they are W8 D2, and in all home matches - W11 D5 L0. Merthyr also won the reverse fixture 1-0, and must be eyeing the top spot. Merthyr @ 1.72

i see no reason to think that roma, inter milan, torino, juventus will fail to win their games. it looks pretty straight forward and even atalanta, sassuolo and sampdoria have more than 50% chance to win theirs

Hi, thanks for these feedbacks... After last week, i'll be tempted to stay on Everton, with City, no major injuries for both.. I haven't any good feelings about Chelsea at Burnley or Stoke this week, for me Everton can't loose, it's just impossible, and City don't play in CL next week, they'll be on fire to progress and do a few good games more until Monaco, and as you said Bournemouth is currently very bad.. So I'll put my money on Everton in a draw no bet, combined with a City win at Bournemouth. Total odds: 2.1 Good luck!

Good game all Larynx been on the blink again but did the talking on the online felt :))

$62.68......my second PL triple crown...and 1st ever PLO triple crown....3 mtt wins in one day!

Hopefully I can back it up. Sydney should win but the odds for -1 is too low that's doesn't make it a worthy play. Adelaide will not have the service of Isaias due to suspension. He is like the Kante of Adelaide imo so he is a very big miss. 1st choice gk Galekovic will be out as well. His replacement will be John Hall, a very poor gk. In the 6 games he played last season, he conceded 13 goals and kept only 1 clean sheet. As seen last week, his positioning as a gk is woeful. Perth Glory should really be looking to take advantage as they look to close in on Roar and City. I will be on Perth DNB @ 2.38. As I mentioned last week, City will be missing Jakobsen(injured), Muscat, Malik, Brattan, Fornaroli, Brandan and Cahill this week due to suspension. Almost all of them plays in the 1st XI actively. Roar will very likely rotate their 1st XI as they played Shanghai Shenhua in a CL qualifier, a game which they won 2-0 away. Even with a rotated squad, Roar will surely include alot of starters in their team as such a weak City team is there for the taking. A win will see them open up a 5 points gap away from City. Roar DNB @ 1.9. As for the other 2 games, I need to confirm the team news before making any plays.

Yes Division I have to agree entirely with your comments above but, there is nothing better than trying to find some criteria where you think you can catch the bookies (they are very rarely caught). My missus is constantly berating me as I have paper all over the place scribbling info that I pick up on this site. Yes you need to be careful, that you have backtested it for a long period and then bet small to see if you can beat the bookmaker. As the saying goes "I have yet to see a poor bookmaker" but we all still like to dabble once and all the time. Really LegendMon is testing his system at the moment, and hopefully he gets some satisfaction from what he is doing. Just for pig iron what do you mean by "Long Term" ?

Happy New Year! I will update the results from a couple of weeks ago soon, just want to response to @Division first. The Burnley question. Simple answer is yes, the performance at home is factored into the equation in someway when looking at the away rating - this also works vice versa, where the away performance affects the home rating. Just because they are performing incredibly at home doesn't necessarily mean that they are a great team overall. The same is true with someone like Manchester City; just because their home form isn't that good, doesn't mean they are a bad team. Relatively speaking, my calculations are quite simple. But you're right, someone much more qualfied than me (which is basically everyone), could come up with something more advanced pretty easily. I try to find the right mixture though, something not too arbitary (like goals), but also something not too over the top. Unfortunately all factors would be impossible - like the suspensions etc. Those kind of things I don't think have a significant affect; replacements should be just as useful, and could even improve a teams performance, especially if they want to impress the manager. I have no idea if this will work long-term, just experimenting and noting down my results on paper.