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She's My Shadow 8/15 William Hill Southwell 19:10

Yar 1630 red maids

I'm glad you have something on the horse as you would be very annoyed if it won with having nothing on it. Some people put more money on a horse when it drifts. The trainer shouldn't leave the horse in the race if he is too worried about the ground. Good luck. It won't break my bank if it loses

Haha many thanks for your detailed analysis. My calculator is a Casio FC -100v Financial Consultant so I don't know why it should give out wrong results. BTW it shows 7x7x7x7 = 2401 not 4096 as your one does. The point I was trying to make was whether mixing up the odds from a total number of odds of 28 in different combinations altered the chances of success. One would think that they would be the same. I didn't mean to confuse the issue over when it is a good time to only do a win L15 or an ew L15. I had just lost @Zilzalian's notes that's all. Sorry about that. I don't have much time this week but I am all about fun with the L15 bets these days. I like to do four of them when there are a number of meetings at 1.50 a pop is only risking 6 points for 16 selections. I am trying to avoid favourite selections that are less than 3/1 with a view to getting on at 7/2 or above if the prices change. I generally work through the shortest price selections upwards from A- D so I have a mixed bag of prices for each L15. When looking at a race my idea is to select a horse at the biggest price that has the best chance of winning Many thanks for your thoughts

I'll probably have a few quid on her. Raining up there, which should help and I can't understand the massive drift as she's fit and bound to be trying.

Had 0.75 win at 7/1. The ground could be against it but I won't lose much if it flops. Good luck with whatever you back

1520 Ayr Verbier 5/1 1.5pts e/w

So far I've had 5 points e/w on Italy outright at 18/1 and Lukaku top goalscorer at 28/1. Italy are still 18/1 in one place and on the exchange (or if you can boost the 16/1 with Lads) Lukaku seems to be shortening; still 25/1 in places but a bit shorter on the exchange. I read a preview on the main Golden Boot contenders and thought Lukaku wasn't bad at the price. Another that looks worth a second look is Dovbyk (Ukraine) at 3 figure odds but, so far, I haven't been able to get on at quite the best price or place terms. I backed Italy when they won the last one based on Kevin Pullein tipping them in the RP. They might merit being bigger odds this time based on form but I still think the argument of backing one of the "usual suspects" at a bigger price holds water. There's so much luck in tournament football that qualifying and friendly form is of little relevance. There's a few who feel too short for me above Italy in the betting and plenty at bigger odds I can't see going all the way. At the price I'm happy to go with the Italians getting their act together when it matters (and, hopefully, enjoying a bit of the rub of the green). Anyone else got any thoughts or had any bets yet?

Thought I'd start a thread as it's only just over 3 weeks away and I've just started my antepost "portfolio"! Above are the outright and top goalscorer odds.

Kempton: 6.00 Dream Of Mischief 9/1 @ William Hill please Thanks

8.10 Southwell Jaxonne @ 2's Hills

"What price Paula Vennells" to be "shot" leaving the building over the next 3 days ! 😃

You've gone an extraordinarily long way around the houses to arrive at a fairly basic mathematical conclusion here! 6 x 6 = 36, 8 x 4 = 32, 2 x 10 = 20 3 pairs of numbers that all add up to 12, the ones that are closest together have the greatest product. That's how multiplication works. I think you could do with getting a better calculator. Nothing too fancy, a £7 Casio job from Sainsburys would be fine. As it is, both your answers are wrong as you've got 1 too many zeroes after the decimal point. That said, why on earth did you do that calculation rather than just work out the accumulative odds? Four 7/1 shots gives you 4096 while your "mixed bag" gives you 2145. Surely comparing those numbers is easier and more relevant than the figures you've arrived at to multiple decimal places? You may be right, it rings a bell. Similar to saying you'd want average odds of around 7/1. Perfectly sound as a rule of thumb. Personally I'd probably still be leaning towards the win only approach for 4 7/1 shots but each way would be more viable than for the mixed odds. I wouldn't be going e/w where the selections included a 2/1 shot but then I probably wouldn't bother with anything that short in a L15 full stop. I genuinely can't see any logical connection between the conclusion you've drawn here and some guidance on when to favour win only over each way! If you compare two L15s the one with the lowest acca odds is the one that's most likely to see all 4 come in; the one with the lowest priced selection is the one that's most likely to give you at least a single. If you're going to do a couple of L15s there may be some logic to having a mixture of odds in both rather than all the shorties in one and all the longshots in the other. If you just fancy 4 7/1 shots then stick them in a L15. Don't go off looking for other selections for the sake of varying the odds. That would be letting the tail wag the dog. I think you've gone down a bit of a rabbit hole here (something I'm prone to do myself at times). If you're going to do a couple of L15s then by all means mix the odds up a bit but worry about the selections first and don't worry if you're fancied selections all come in at similar odds sometimes. And get a calculator that didn't come out of a Christmas cracker!

Wednesday 22/05/2024 No Selections

3.00 Yarmouth Aim For The Moon 5/2 Win Only Paddypower

Day 114 -£8

Yarm 3.30 - Impatiently - win at 11/2 bet365

600 kemp mr mistoffelees 12/1 bet365

8.00 Kempton Thapa VC 25/1 Bet365 EW

Big drift on Heartache Tonight in the 3:30 Ayr, 15/8 out to 13/2. Ran in the Epsom Oaks last year and clear top rated but the drift has put me off and probably wants slower ground.

8.10 Southwell - Blazing Court 28/1@WilliamHill

A pleasing report from the Headmistess. 😁

lovebird 11.23 Nancy france

lovebird 11.23 Nancy france