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Southwell 7.00 King Of The Jungle 10/1 bet365
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First thing to say is that it looks a really open renewal this year and there are quite a few with chances. As ever this guide is there to help you with your picks and there is never any pressure to follow the selections I have made. I got nowhere near the Cheltenham winner so hopefully I will be closer at Aintree.A Jet Of Our Own - Won a Hunter Chase at Cheltenham last May in testing ground when just picking up Fier Jaguen late on. Not threatened to repeat that form this season though and was a 21L 2nd to Joker De Mai at Leicester last month and prior to that he was pulled up at Taunton in the opening Hunter Chase of the season.Annamix - I was quite surprised he went off 5/1 for this race last year because it didn't really look like it would be a suitable test for him and he did end up quite far back before staying on to finish 3rd. He had the 2nd fastest finishing speed in the race, but I get the feeling the testing ground allowed him to make up the ground he was able to make. He did at least come into the race last year with a win, but this time around he has run poorly at both Naas and Gowran Park. Given he couldn't win the race last year, I struggle to see him even repeating last year's 3rd at the age of 12 given the form he is in and the fact it is going to be quicker ground. He has cheekpieces on for the 1st time and if they work then that might help him run well.Autonomous Cloud - Travelled well into the race at Leicester until a mistake at 2 out and then he couldn't keep up with Bennys King and was well beaten in the end. He was 4th in the Midlands National last year and he looks more of a stayer so I can see him getting outpaced round here on decent ground. Also given Bennys King record round here I don't see how he can reverse form with him.Bardenstown Lad - Has already had lots of racing as they tried to get him qualified for Cheltenham and it took longer than they probably thought it would. The Fakenham win isn't looking the strongest form although he didn't run too badly at Cheltenham until he faded out of contention towards the end. His jumping can be a problem and whilst I know the fences are easier than they were it will still be a concern round here. If he can get into a rhythm round here near the front end then I can actually see him doing better than he did at Cheltenham, but he still doesn't really make much appeal from a win point of view.Bennys King - He's 14 now, but he has been an absolute legend since going hunter chasing. In 2023 he was 2nd to Famous Clermont and then last year in very different conditions he was 2nd to Its On The Line. Interestingly Heidi Palin has ridden him in pretty much every hunter chase, but has not ridden him in this race before and wont again as Sean O'Connor who rode him last year in this and at Leicester the time before takes the ride again. You can ignore the handicap runs he had earlier in the season as they are always used as pipe openers for hunter chases. He never wears cheekpieces in them either, but when they go back on he is a different horse. The 2nd to Life Me Up at Warwick was good, but he topped that when winning at Leicester for the 2nd year running. It was another great front running performance and he just kept going in really testing ground to beat Autonomous Cloud be an eased down 8.5L. He is clearly still as good as he was the last couple of years so you could not rule out a deserved success in the race.Bothwell Bridge - Ex Nicky Henderson who won 3 points for his new connections last year. He ended the campaign finishing 3rd at Kelso to Yippee Ki Yay. This season he was 2nd on debut to Master Templar at Garthorpe and then I thought he ran a really good race at Leicester when 3rd to Bennys King. The problem is he didn't back that up back pointing last month when only 4th behind Trevada who pulled up at Newbury on his next start. Form doesn't look good enough to see him play a part.Dorking Cock - Was a well beaten 12th in this in 2 years ago and then tried his hand under rules and did win a handicap hurdle off 115 in November 2023. This year he has been back in points and Hunter Chases and whilst he pulled up at Down Royal on Boxing Day his other 3 runs haven't been too bad. He found this too sharp a test 2 years ago and everything he has done since suggests that will be the case again here.Eva's Oskar - Didn't run too badly in the 2023 Grand National when she was badly hampered at the 21st and unseated his jockey. My feeling is they wanted to qualify him for Cheltenham, but after only finishing 6th at Warwick on Hunter Chase debut it was going to be tough to qualify. He then won at Bangor and whilst he clearly had come on for the Warwick run, he was also a fortunate winner given Wilewonga's mistake at the last. He again showed his stamina at Catterick as he nearly caught Captain Tommy on the run-in after finding himself outpaced. This trip looks on the short side for me and I suspect he will get himself outpaced again.Famous Clermont - Had a superb 2023 which ended him putting in an impressive performance to win this race. Things didn't really go his way last season though as he had to miss this race because of the testing ground, he was beaten at Wincanton and he was well beaten at Punchestown. He did drop down in grade at Stratford and won the lady rider race on hunter chase night in easy fashion. Chris Barber has moved yards so James King now rides him whereas Will Biddick rode him in 2023. James put in one of the best rides I've seen in this race when winning on Cousin Pascal so that is certainly no negative. He was beaten by Take All at Milborne St Andrew on his seasonal return where he cruised into the lead, but faded badly on the run-in. It was probably a mixture of needing the run and sticky ground that caught him out that day. He then went to Cothelstone last month where he didn't come off the bridle to beat Acey Milan by a very easy 5L. He could easily regain his crown, but I do have a slight doubt about if he is still at the same level of ability as he was then, but hard to put you off if you do fancy him.Fix It All - Had struggled after coming over from France until ending up in Hunter Chases in 2023. He won twice at Ludlow and then was a close 2nd at Cheltenham. He then went back handicapping and there was some good pieces of form including a win at Hereford last May. His Hunter Chase debut for his new trainer at Carlisle wasn't great though as he was a well beaten 4th to Minella Trump. It's hard to see him getting involved on the back of that even if he comes on for the run.Frere d'Armes - Won at Fakenham off 123 in December and then struggled badly in the opening Hunter Chase of the season at Taunton. He put that behind him when winning at Ludlow, but then didn't quite see out the trip as well as Bardenstown Lad at Fakenham as he looked the winner until late on. He then dropped back to 2m4f at Ludlow a couple of weeks ago, but he was only 3rd behind Captain Tommy and I'd have him as 3rd best of the Skelton runners.Go Go Geronimo - Has yet to win a Hunter Chase despite going close a couple of times, but he looks on the downgrade and passed up his best chance to win one yet at Fakenham on Gold Cup Day. He shouldn't have any chance in this.Gracchus De Balme - Looks to be Joe's 1st string with the superb Huw Edwards choosing him of Willewonga. He was useful for Joesph O'Brien, but I do think Joe has improved him. He bolted up on his debut for the yard at Knightwick in November and he then ran a huge race in the Walrus at Haydock when 2nd to My Drogo. He was a bit keen and then his head carriage didn't always look great down the home straight and he hung left on the run-in. I possibly would have liked to have seen some headgear on after that run, but Joe knows what he's doing and he obviously doesn't think he needs it. I was surprised to see him run at Leicester just 10 days later and he ran a shocking race in the contest won by Bennys King. He's much better than that and I know Joe will have him absolutely spot on for this which would have been his main target at the start of the season.Jet Plane - Returned this season with a good run in the Bobby Renton at Wetherby in October, but he then unseated in the Rehearsal at Newcastle when beaten and didn't run well at Kempton over Christmas. He went back to Wetherby and had a very easy win in a weak hunter chase, but we got a better view as to where he is at when he ran in the Walrus at Haydock. He made a terrible mistake at the last which didn't help him although he still would have finished 3rd I think behind My Drogo and Gracchus De Balme. Jack Andrews has got the ride and he should be capable of going well.Joker De Mai - His trainer said he wasn't fit ahead of the opening hunter chase of the season at Taunton and he ran like he wasn't fit. He looked like he would finish 2nd to Angels Breath, but then faded and ended up being 3rd. He then went to Leicester for the 2m race they have and he bolted up by 21L. He is only 6, but he has experience of fences in France so this test should be fine for him. I can see him running well, but I do wonder if he quite has the ability at the moment to win this.Lifetime Ambition - No surprising that this has been the target as he was a good 4th in the Grand Sefton in 2022 and he was then unfortunate in that seasons Grand National as he was badly hampered by a loose horse and unseated at Valentines 1st time round. He went pointing/hunter chasing last season and won very easily over 2m4f at Cork a year ago, before pushing Its On The Line very close at Punchestown. I actually think that if you swap the jockeys around you get a different result as it was a Derek O'Connor special to get the winner up as Lifetime Ambition looked the winner for most of the home straight. This season he has had 2 very comfortable pointing success to set him up nicely for this and crucially he has had a jockey change to Rob James who will be looking for a big race double after winning on Wonderwall at Cheltenham.Master Tempar - Has won 12 times from 17 in points and was a very good 2nd in the 4m race at Cheltenham on Hunter Chase night. Wasn't so good in the John Corbet Cup the next time, but I'm not sure Stratford suited him. This season he beat Bardenstown Lad at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and then Bothwell Bridge at Garthorpe in February. I then fancied him for a Hunter Chase at Southwell a month ago, but the slow pace didn't suit him at all and he was only 5th. This drop down in trip is not in his favour, but he will get a strong pace to aim at which he didn't get last time. I can't see him winning, but if he stayed on in the top 6 that would not surprise me in the slightest. Blinkers replace cheekpieces for the 1st time.Milan Forth - Only won his maiden back in October at the 4th time of asking, but has risen quickly through the ranks and has won 2 hunter chases at Clonmel in January and then at Down Royal on St Patricks Day. He won both very comfortably despite the margins not being that big. The ground will not be an issue and whilst the bare form probably needs improving on you couldn't rule him out as a possible winner.My Drogo - A horse who was not able to show his true ability over fences due to injury, but he did win the Mersey Novices' Hurdle at this meeting 3 years ago. The fact he is 10 and has only run 12 times tells you how hard it has been to keep him sound. He has though proven he retains plenty of his old ability now he has been sent pointing/hunter chasing. He was 3rd on his return at Larkhill in December behind a horse called Givega, who is the most impressive hunter chase winner I have seen all season. The following month he had a very simple task back at Larkhill when winning easily at 2/5 and he then went to Haydock for the Walrus and he was given a very good ride by Will to defeat Gracchus De Balme and Jet Plane. He's been kept fresh for this since and he has to go on the shortlist of possible winners.Ontheropes - Stayed on strongly at Cheltenham after being out the back for most of the way and did well to get within 19L of Wonderwall given how far back he was. That was no surprise given he was 5th in last year's Scottish National. Both those runs, as well as his 2nd at Naas in February, suggest though this is not going to be a strong enough stamina test for him.Percussion - Has a great record round here with 1 2nd and 2 3rds from 5 starts. That is no doubt why his owner purchased him so he can have a nice spin round. The problem is though he looks to be regressing. He was a well beaten 7th in the Grand Sefton in April, his worst run yet round the course. He was finished 3rd in both hunter chases this season as well and the Southwell run last time he was gifted an easy lead and still could only finish 3rd. No doubt he will get round, but finishing in the top 10 will be more likely than the top 4.Presentandcounting - Has been sent off favourite for both hunter chases so far, but has finished 3rd at both Fakenham and Catterick. At Fakenham he wasn't given any peace in front as Bardenstown Lad kept up with him and in the end was 16L in front of him. Then at Catterick he did get an easier time of things up in front, but he just wasn't good enough and Captain Tommy and Eva's Oskar were both in front of him. He certainly won't get an easy lead here and makes little appeal.Pyleigh Court - If there is a bit of a wildcard in this year's race then he could be the one. He's very unexposed having had just the 10 races, but that is in part down to the fact he went missing for 650 days after finishing 3rd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in May 2023. It was a solid first start under rules, but he has topped that in his two runs at Leicester in February. In the first of them he was very keen when attempting to settle at the back and in the end Ella just let him stride on and he was in front after the 4th. He was beaten 18L into 3rd by Givega in the end, but he looks a top class horse and Pyleigh Court did well to finish 3rd given how keen he had been in soft ground on his first run for 650 days. 12 days later he went back to Leicester for a maiden hunter chase and the only doubt in my mind was if he would bounce because otherwise he had the best form in the race. He settled much better than he did on his seasonal return and he bolted up by 15L, but it could have been more. He didn't beat much on that occasion, but it is more what he did on the previous start that makes me think he could be capable of running a big race at big odds.Ramillies - Would be a surprise winner to me given he was well beaten at Down Royal on Boxing Day, Willitgoahead easily beat him at Thurles in January and then he pulled when disappointing at Gowran Park last month.Senor Citizen - Struggled to land much of a blow in a couple of hunter chases last season and then returned after 10 month off to win at Higham by 15L. This is stronger, but should give his jockey a nice spin round.Willewonga - Joe O'Shea's 2nd string on jockey bookings, but I would not rule out a bold showing. He was 2nd to Gracchus De Balme on his seasonal return and then ran well in a hot Mens Ooen at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He ran very poorly on his next start in February, but 5 days after that he would have beaten Eva's Oskar had he not nearly unseated his young jockey at the last. He was 2nd at Southwell a month later and I thought that was a very good effort because the winner Linelee King looks a very classy recruit to this sphere. They went no pace in that race and he was just outsprinted at the end. He's been trained with this race in mind and I suspect he might well outrun his odds.Willitgoahead - Has been a massive improver this season and was a big money purchase ahead of Cheltenham where he ran a huge race to finish a 3.5L 3rd to Wonderwall. It would be interesting to know the riding instructions because he was held up at the back and he didn't get involved until late on. It could be they were concerned about his stamina, but he stayed well and I would imagine they will ride him closer to the pace back down in trip. He's a very good jumper and if he runs up to his Cheltenham form then he ought to go very close. The concern will be though that he has been on the go since October, he's a young horse and he would have had a tough race at Cheltenham. With that in mind his price is tight enough for me for all that he is very much a possible winner.Yccs Portocervo - On last seasons wins (2 Hunter Chases at Kempton and Newton Abbot and a handicap off 130 at Market Rasen) he wouldn't be out of this as you can easily see him enjoying things out in front and being in contention still as they near the business end. The problem is though he didn't run very well at Leicester on his seasonal return when he pulled up behind Joker De Mai. Connections blamed the trip being too short, but that didn't look the issue for me. Like I say though if he bounces back he might not be far away.Yippee Ki Yay - Looked pretty useful when going hunter chasing last season as he won a couple and was 2nd at Cheltenham. This season thought he has been campaigned very strangely having been well beaten in a point, before running in 2 handicaps but not all that well. Looks an unlikely winner.Verdict - This looks a wide open renewal and there are probably at least a dozen horses that wouldn't surprise me if they won. I'm going to take a 5 pronged attack on the race 2 of which are small bets at massive odds. All the front 4 in the betting have claims, but the one I like most out of them is Lifetime Ambition. This has been a long term target for the horse and he would have won at Punchestown last year with a stronger jockey, which he gets here in the shape of Rob James. He's had a solid prep in points and we know he handles the track. The winner at Cheltenham had an Irish points prep so it could easily happen here as well.The 2nd bet is going to be Gracchus De Balme. Another horse who has had this as his long term target and Joe has a very good record in this race. I'd possibly have liked to have seen headgear go on given his wayward tendencies at Haydock, but he'd never shown it before to be fair and whilst he does have a small margin to make up on My Drogo I've got a feeling this test might suit him better than that one. Also the price difference is huge and just shouldn't be that big. I'd ignore the Leicester run last time as it was just too bad to be true and he should be spot on for its.Next I have to have Bennys King onside. He has proven yet again this season that he is in the same sort of form that has seen him finish 2nd the last 2 years and if he runs up to the Leicester run here then he's going to have a superb chance of a top 5 finish. Whilst it is mainly the place part of the bet that appeals, he certainly has a chance of winning as well and would be great if he did.The two big price tips are Willewonga and Pyleigh Court. Joe's 2nd string certainly isn't out of it and again I feel this has been the target for him. He should have beaten Eva's Oskar at Bangor and the horse that beat him at Southwell was one of the most impressive performances I've seen this season. I am taking a bit of a flyer with Pyleigh Court because on bare form he does need to find a bit, but there was lots of promise with his Leicester return and then he backed that up with his win last time. His still unexposed and I think there could be more to come. At the very least he can outrun his odds, but if there is to be a real shock it could be him.Prices from 3pm ThursdayLifetime Ambition 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Coral (take up to 7/2)Gracchus De Balme 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred to 5 places. Ladbrokes are 22/1 with 4 places (take up to 12/1)Bennys King 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred. 16s available elsewhere to 4 places and Hills are 18/1 with 5 places (take up to 10/1)Willewonga 0.25pts e/w @ 50/1 with most bookies. Ladbrokes are 66/1 with 4 places (take up to 33/1)Pyleigh Court 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with most bookies. Ladbrokes are 80/1 with 4 places (take up to 40/1)
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