Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday only picks up three: Glenn Murray, Brighton (v Sheffield Wednesday), 50%, 110/10 22 units :@(General) Chris Wood, Brighton (v Sheffield Wednesday), 48%, 6/4, 66 units :)(PaddyPower) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Southport), 54%, 6/5, 78 unitsvoid (Bet365)

A small profit for Saturday. Sunday: Stefan Kiessling, Bayer Leverkusen (v St Pauli), 48%, 11/10, 4 units (general) Jose Rondon, Malaga (v Deportivo La Corunna), 48%, 9/5, 95 units (PaddyPower) Ola Toivonen (PSV, (v Heerenveen), 54%, evens, 40 units (Unibet)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

A small profit for Saturday. Sunday: Stefan Kiessling, Bayer Leverkusen (v St Pauli), 48%, 11/10, 4 units :)(general) Jose Rondon, Malaga (v Deportivo La Corunna), 48%, 9/5, 95 units :((PaddyPower) Ola Toivonen (PSV, (v Heerenveen), 54%, evens, 40 units (Unibet) void

One for Tuesday: Chris Wood, Brighton (v Dagenham), 52%, 6/5, 60 units (Bet365)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

One for Tuesday: Chris Wood, Brighton (v Dagenham), 52%, 6/5, 60 units :@(Bet365)

Saturday: Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Plymouth), 60%, 5/6, 60 units (BoyleSports) Sam Winnall, Burton (v Cheltenham), 48%, 15/8, 101 units (BoyleSports) Jack lester, Chesterfield (v Macclesfield), 48%, 23/30, 13 units (Vic Chandler) Shaun Miller, Crewe (v Lincoln), 48%, 11/10, 41 units (General) Magno Veiera, Fleetwood (v Altrincham), 53%, 21/20, 41 units (Bet365) Leon Constantine, York (v Tamworth), 48%, 6/5, 23 units (Bet365) Jamie Reed, York (v Tamworth), 48%, 6/5, 23 units (Bet365) Miliovoje Novakovic, Koln (v Stuttgart), 55%, 39/19, 165 units (Unibet)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday: Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Plymouth), 60%, 5/6, 60 units :)(BoyleSports) Sam Winnall, Burton (v Cheltenham), 48%, 15/8, 101 units void (BoyleSports) Jack lester, Chesterfield (v Macclesfield), 48%, 23/30, 13 units :@(Vic Chandler) Shaun Miller, Crewe (v Lincoln), 48%, 11/10, 41 units :@(General) Magno Veiera, Fleetwood (v Altrincham), 53%, 21/20, 41 units :@(Bet365) Leon Constantine, York (v Tamworth), 48%, 6/5, 23 units void (although he was a scoring sub :wall)(Bet365) Jamie Reed, York (v Tamworth), 48%, 6/5, 23 units :@(Bet365) Miliovoje Novakovic, Koln (v Stuttgart), 55%, 39/19, 165 units :)(Unibet)

Two from six, but a semi-decent profit as the high-staked longer-priced one came in. Sunday: Filipe Caicedo, Levante (v Hercules), 71%, 28/15, 287 units (Unibet). I'll do an update after the weekend. Luis Jiminez doesn't quite qualify as he has only recently found his scoring boots, but with Cesena playing struggling Bari and having scored in his last four home games he looks generously priced by Bet365 at 8/5 for a couple of 'non-system' units.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Caciedo was void; Jiminiz didn't hit the net. Including midweek, this week has seen two from seven, but this included the only big one so the yield is 52% (614 returned from 403 staked). I'm still smarting from a poor Jaunary and February; all other months have been profitable (including April to date) but those really bad months have really hit my yield. However, I'm beginning to see some patterns emerge which will help tighten things up for next season. Overall: strike rate - 69 from 188 (37%). I probably need to hit 40%, and I think I've got some idea how to up this for next season. Yield: 22,596 staked, 23,723 returned (5%). If I can get the strike rate to 40%, I can probably up the yield to something a bit better.

[pottski]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version If caciedo comes on and doesn't score, do you get your stake back?

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

If caciedo comes on and doesn't score' date=' do you get your stake back?[/quote'] No, I don't count players who don't start. If someone cames on and scores I moan and mutter a bit, but other than that it doesn't make any difference.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One for Monday: Adel Taarabt, QPR (v Derby), 48%, 6/4, 66 units (ExtraBet) (He hasn't scored at home since February but qualifies due to an outstanding early season and one recent away goal. This is the sort of qualifier I need to try to exclude when I refine the system for next season. (And having said, that, just watch him score now :wall.))

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Taarabt failed, as predicted. I think I've found a way of discounting such obviously bad bets which I'll refine over the summer. It'll involve looking for a lot more consistency in recent games rather than looking at overall stats for the season, which catches people who score regularly early on (good) but then tail off later in the campaign (bad).

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday: Steve Morison, Millwall (v Preston), 50%, 11/10, 22 units (Bet365) (I'm pretty sure he's suspended, but is included because a price is being offered) Ian Craney, Accrington (v Bradford), 57%, 15/8, 170 units (General) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Eastbourne), 54%, 6/5, 78 units (Corals) Antonio Di Natale, Udinese (v Parma), 59%, 11/10, 108 units (Unibet) (Di Natale is on hot form at the moment so would be a tip for a couple of 'real' units (scored in seven of the last 9 matches, with a total of 11 goals in these games).

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday: Steve Morison, Millwall (v Preston), 50%, 11/10, 22 units void (Bet365) Ian Craney, Accrington (v Bradford), 57%, 15/8, 170 units:@ (General) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Eastbourne), 54%, 6/5, 78 units :@(Corals) Antonio Di Natale, Udinese (v Parma), 59%, 11/10, 108 units void(Unibet)

Sunday: David Trezeguet, Hercules (v Deportivo La Corunna), 66%, 9/5, 235 units (Unibet) Andreas Granquist, Groningen (v NEC), 51%, 7/2, 185 units (Unibet)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Sunday: David Trezeguet, Hercules (v Deportivo La Corunna), 66%, 9/5, 235 units :@(Unibet) Andreas Granquist, Groningen (v NEC), 51%, 7/2, 185 units :@(Unibet)

Monday: Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Yeovil), 62%, Evens, 120 units (Boylesports) Magno Vieira, Fleetwood (v barrow), 50%, 11/10, 22 units (Bet365) Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Altrincham), 54%, Evens, 40 units (General) Leon Constantine, York (v Cambridge Utd), 48%, 7/5, 54 units (Bet365) Jamie Reed, York (v Cambridge Utd), 48%, 7/5, 54 Units (Bet365)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Monday: Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Yeovil), 62%, Evens, 120 units void (but he was a scoring substitute :wall)(Boylesports) Magno Vieira, Fleetwood (v barrow), 50%, 11/10, 22 units :)(Bet365) Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Altrincham), 54%, Evens, 40 units :@(General) Leon Constantine, York (v Cambridge Utd), 48%, 7/5, 54 units:@ (Bet365) Jamie Reed, York (v Cambridge Utd), 48%, 7/5, 54 Units:@ (Bet365)

Saturday: Jamie Cureton, Exeter (v Plymouth), 55%, 7/5, 114 units (PaddyPower) Ian Craney, Accrington (v Barnet), 52%, 15/8, 132 units (BoyleSports) Didier Ya Konan, Hannover (v Borussia M'Gladbach), 58%, 13/8, 137 units (BoyleSports)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday: Jamie Cureton, Exeter (v Plymouth), 55%, 7/5, 114 units:@ (PaddyPower) Ian Craney, Accrington (v Barnet), 52%, 15/8, 132 units void (BoyleSports) Didier Ya Konan, Hannover (v Borussia M'Gladbach), 58%, 13/8, 137 units :@(BoyleSports)

Sunday: Antonio Cassano, Milan (v Bologna), 54%, 7/5, 105 units (Unibet) Filipe Caicedo, Levante (v Gijon), 69%, 7/4, 256 units (Bet365) Guiseppie Rossi (Villareal (v Getafe), 18/17, 186 units (Unibet) Ova Toivonen, PSV (v Vitesse), 57%, 4/5, 16 units (Unibet)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Sunday: Antonio Cassano, Milan (v Bologna), 54%, 7/5, 105 units :@(Unibet) Filipe Caicedo, Levante (v Gijon), 69%, 7/4, 256 units :@(Bet365) Guiseppie Rossi (Villareal (v Getafe), 18/17, 186 units :D(Unibet) Ova Toivonen, PSV (v Vitesse), 57%, 4/5, 16 units :@(Unibet)

Saturday: (Update to follow at the end of the weekend) David Trezeguet, Hercules (v Racing Santander), 61%, 17/10, 190 units (Unibet) Sergio Aguero, Athletic Madrid (v Malaga), 51%, 11/10, 32 units (Corals) Kevin Nolan, Newcastle (v Birmingham), 48%, 2/1, 109 units (General) Steven Gillespie, Colchester (v Bristol Rovers), 59%, 11/8, 145 units (Bet365) Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Dagenham), 63%, 11/10, 146 units (general)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday: (Update to follow at the end of the weekend) David Trezeguet, Hercules (v Racing Santander), 61%, 17/10, 190 units void(Unibet) Sergio Aguero, Athletic Madrid (v Malaga), 51%, 11/10, 32 units :@(Corals) Kevin Nolan, Newcastle (v Birmingham), 48%, 2/1, 109 units :@(General) Steven Gillespie, Colchester (v Bristol Rovers), 59%, 11/8, 145 units void(Bet365) Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Dagenham), 63%, 11/10, 146 units :)(general)

Saturday: Arjen Robben, Bayern Munich (v Stuttgart), 68%, 23/20, 200 units (Vic Chandler) Milivoje Novakovi, Koln (v Shalke), 66%, 7/5, 208 units (Unibet)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday: Arjen Robben, Bayern Munich (v Stuttgart), 68%, 23/20, 200 units (Vic Chandler):@ Milivoje Novakovi, Koln (v Shalke), 66%, 7/5, 208 units (Unibet):D

Saturday Gonzalo Higuain, Real Madrid (v Almeria), 53%, 10/11, 6 units (General) Joseba Lorente, Real Sociadad (v Getafe), 48%, 2/1, 109 units (Boylesports)

[winningbin]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version why don't you post the profit/loss so that we can see if the system works ?:D

[winningbin]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version I mean the overall profit/loss , number of bets, balance, etc...:dude

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

why don't you post the profit/loss so that we can see if the system works ?:D

Lack of time has stopped me keeping a running total for the last few weeks - just working on the picks has been a struggle. I'll post an update as soon as I can, but probably not until all the leagues have played their final games (next week?) I reckon I'm a little in credit, but not by enough to make the (quite considerable) work worth it without tweaking the system.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday's picks were both void. Sunday: Dimitar Berbatov, Man Utd (v Blackpool), 58%, 10/11, 160 units (general) Javier Hernandez, Man Utd (v Blackpool), 48%, 10/11, 4 units (Corals) Steven Fletcher, Wolves (v Blackburn), 48%, 2/1, 109 units (Unibet) Samuel Eto'o, Inter (v Catania), 59%, evens, 89 units (general) Giampaolo Pazzini, Inter (v Catania), 54%, 11/10, 60 units (general)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Saturday's picks were both void. Sunday: Dimitar Berbatov, Man Utd (v Blackpool), 58%, 10/11, 160 units :@(general) Javier Hernandez, Man Utd (v Blackpool), 48%, 10/11, 4 units void (Corals) Steven Fletcher, Wolves (v Blackburn), 48%, 2/1, 109 units :@(Unibet) Samuel Eto'o, Inter (v Catania), 59%, evens, 89 units :@(general) Giampaolo Pazzini, Inter (v Catania), 54%, 11/10, 60 units :)(general)

Apologies for the lack of recent updates. I've had a lot going on over the last couple of months, and it was a struggle just to find the time to come up with bets. I have covered nearly all games, missing out only for a week's holiday and one evening when I was ill. I've learned a lot from this, and while I've made a paper loss for the season, I've learned the trends and I think there's enough to give this another go next season. I'll probably have to reduce the number of leagues though to reduce workload. I'm going to do a summary of the strengths and weaknesses, but the overall figures are: Staked - 25,427 units, returns 25,084 (around a 1% loss) Strike rate - 74 from 212 (35%). This needs to get up to at least 40%, and having seen the trends over a season I think I can work out how to do this. More to follow in a week or so when I've done a fuller analysis. I do think this can be a profitable system. The main problem is that it still picks up players who were prolific early in the season if they go 'cold' later in the season. Finding a way to weed out these players when they're off form is probably the key.