Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

One for Friday: Andreas Granquist' date=' Groningham (v Arnham), 59%, 7/2, 236 units. :nana[/quote'] Running Totals: Strike rate - 15 from 38 = 39% Yield: 5,235 staked, 6,678 returned = 28 %

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday's picks: Jay Boothroyd, Cardiff (v Preston), 68%, 6/5, 206 units Lucianno Bechio, Leeds (v Crystal Palace), 53%, 11/8, 94 units Edin Dzeko, Wolsburg (v Werder Bremen), 63%, 13/8, 201 units Gratife, Wolfsburg (v Werder Bremen), 48%, 11/5, 121 units Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Milan (v Brescia), 63%, 11/10, 146 units Ola Toivanen, PSV (v Heracles), 59%, 4/5, 38 units

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Jay Boothroyd, Cardiff (v Preston), 68%, 6/5, 206 units :@ Lucianno Bechio, Leeds (v Crystal Palace), 53%, 11/8, 94 units :) Edin Dzeko, Wolsburg (v Werder Bremen), 63%, 13/8, 201 units :@ Gratife, Wolfsburg (v Werder Bremen), 48%, 11/5, 121 units void Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Milan (v Brescia), 63%, 11/10, 146 units :) Ola Toivanen, PSV (v Heracles), 59%, 4/5, 38 units :)

A strange day for the system, with a overall loss desite a 60% strike rate. The two biggest punts failed - one went off injured after five minutes, while the other missed a penalty. :wall That's the way it goes; while frustrating, it probably makes up for the good luck I've had occasionally up to now.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two for Sunday: Erjon Bogdani, Cesena (v Bologna), 57%, 23/10, 170 units Darren Bent, Sunderland (v West Ham), 48%, 5/4, 31 units

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two losses for Sunday :@ Overall, the weekend session (Friday-Sunday) showed a 50% strike rate (4/8) and a profit of 48% (1,122 staked, 1,660 returned). That's mainly thanks to a heavily backed long shot coming in on Friday. Overall: Strike Rate: 18 out of 45 (40%) Yield: 6,122 units staked, 7,276 returned (19%) Although I'm more than happy with the yield, it does seem to be falling significantly after an exceptional start. I wonder if this is because as the season has got older, the bookies are more in tune with who is doing the scoring and their prices more solid than earlier in the season.

[NO CODE]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version maybe you should change system slightly/ Like every week Messi anytime/Barca win usually decent price. Seems to come off most weekends.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

maybe you should change system slightly/ Like every week Messi anytime/Barca win usually decent price. Seems to come off most weekends.

Yes, that seems lkike a decent bet. The problem I'd have with this being a stats-based system is working out the percentage chance of the win. I trhink it's more of a common sense-type bet!

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two for Friday: Didier Ya Konan, Hannover (v Stuttgart), 68%, 2/1, 260 units Willy Overtoon, Heracles (v Venlo), 48%, 7/4, 91 units

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One from two tonight. It was the big one that came in, resulting in a decent yield to start the weekend.

[Grex]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Well done, Wiltshire Shot :clap.... your biased staking system seems to be paying dividends :ok

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Thanks Grex. I'm still not 100% convinced, but I'll reach the 50 games mark today when I'll have enough stats for a rough analysis. The system does have a couple of flaws which I think will reduce its effectiveness as a 'real' system - but more of that after the fifty! Here's Saturday's Tim Cahill, Everton (v Wigan), 68%, 13/10, 216 units Gary Madine, Carlisle (v Dagenham and Redbridge), 48%, 13/10, 39 units Kevin Gameiro, Lorient (v lens), 48%, 13/8, 79 units Lynel Kitambala, Lorient (v Lens), 54%, 2/1, 155 units Sejad Salihovic, (edited to add match which I'd left off - Hoffenheim v Nurnburg) 48%, 29/10, 150 units Ivo Ilicevic, Kaiserslautern (v Wolfsburg), 48%, 3/1, 153 units Lucas Barrios, Dortmund (v Werder Bremen), 54%, 11/10, 60 units Sergio Aguero, Athletic Madrid (v Deportivo La Coruna), 48%, 28/17, 82 units Mauricio Pinilla, Palermo (v Parma), 48%, 13/8, 79 units

[Grex]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Any chance of quoting decimal odds?... I am afraid that "Sergio Aguero @ 28/17" totally blows my thick brain :$

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Any chance of quoting decimal odds?... I am afraid that "Sergio Aguero @ 28/17" totally blows my thick brain :$

Sorry, my spreadsheet is set up for fractions, and it would be too time consuming to get both. If it's any consolation, my brain is too thick to adjust to decimals :$

[bwtw]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Thanks Grex. I'm still not 100% convinced, but I'll reach the 50 games mark today when I'll have enough stats for a rough analysis

...50 games is just nowhere near enough for any substantial anaylsis for these types of bets.

[Jenno99]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version That Aguero bet looks incredible. Unibet have odds of 2.65 on this and the next best is 2.2 and the average around evens. There are much bigger differences in odds for anytime goalscorers than there are for match result odds.

[davidc]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Sorry' date=' my spreadsheet is set up for fractions, and it would be too time consuming to get both. If it's any consolation, my brain is too thick to adjust to decimals :$[/quote'] Examples of how to convert fractional odds to decimal odds. 28/17 = (28 divided by 17 + 1) = 2.6470 3/1 = (3 divided by 1 + 1) = 4.0

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Tim Cahill, Everton (v Wigan), 68%, 13/10, 216 units :@ Gary Madine, Carlisle (v Dagenham and Redbridge), 48%, 13/10, 39 units :@ Kevin Gameiro, Lorient (v lens), 48%, 13/8, 79 units void Lynel Kitambala, Lorient (v Lens), 54%, 2/1, 155 units :) Sejad Salihovic, Hoffenheim (v Nurnburg) 48%, 29/10, 150 units :@ Ivo Ilicevic, Kaiserslautern (v Wolfsburg), 48%, 3/1, 153 units :@ Lucas Barrios, Dortmund (v Werder Bremen), 54%, 11/10, 60 units :@ Sergio Aguero, Athletic Madrid (v Deportivo La Coruna), 48%, 28/17, 82 units :) Mauricio Pinilla, Palermo (v Parma), 48%, 13/8, 79 units void

Not a good day, but the weekend session remains in credit thanks to a good Friday. Pinilla scored, but as a substitute :wall and I don't count players who don't start.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Sunday's picks: Papiss Demba Cisse, Freiburg (v B. M'gladbach), 83%, 13/10, 349 units Luc Castaignos, Feyenoord (v Excelsior), 48%, 6/4, 66 units Marco Boriello, Roma (v Bari), 63%, 11/10, 146 units Diego Castro, Gijon (v Levante) 48%, 23/10, 126 units David Trezeuget, Heracles (v Malaga), 95%, 13/8, 459 units

[Woodgate]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Great great thread which I will follow more closely now that I've found it! It is right though what bwtw says that 50 bets are nowhere enough to a substantial anaylsis but I defiantly think you are on the right track. You made me wanna start my own little system and give it a try to be honest:D

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Sunday's picks: Papiss Demba Cisse, Freiburg (v B. M'gladbach), 83%, 13/10, 349 units :) Luc Castaignos, Feyenoord (v Excelsior), 48%, 6/4, 66 units :) Marco Boriello, Roma (v Bari), 63%, 11/10, 146 units :@ Diego Castro, Gijon (v Levante) 48%, 23/10, 126 units :@ David Trezeuget, Heracles (v Malaga), 95%, 13/8, 459 units :)

A really good day, almost doubling my virtual stake after a disappointing Saturday. Full stats for the Friday-Sunday session: Strike rate - 6 out of 14 (43%) Yield - 2,352 staked, 3,635 returned (55%) Overall: Strike rate - 24 out of 59 (41%) Yield: 8,474 staked, 10,911 returned (29%)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version I said I'd summarise progress after 50 punts, so here's a few thoughts. With a 29% yield it's obviously worth continuing and I'm quite excited about its potential, but I'm not going to declare the system a success yet, for a few reasons: * I assume as the season progresses, the number of consistent scorers will fall, and that the bookies will have more stats to work on so will make fewer errors. If this is the case, then the number of punts should decrease, and the value should become skinnier. This hasn't happened so far this season, though. I probably need to complete the season before giving a full thumbs up or down. * There is a need for multiple accounts. With 12X or similar you can probably get away with two or three accounts as odds between bookies dont seem to vary much. This isn't the case with scorers, where bookies can offer vastly differing odds, and there don't seem to be any who are more generous then others. To date I haven't kept a record of those who are consistently the most generous, which I'll do in future to see if there's a pattern. * Odds seem to fall a little nearer to kick off compared to the odds I quote, which are the best current ones when I post. I suppose this is a trade-off between getting in early, and taking the risk that my chosen player will be named as sub and come on for a near-useless last five minutes. The BBC lists line-ups for the English leagues before kick-off, but I can't find a site that does the same for the European leagues. Does anyone know of one? (If not I'll ask in the general betting forum.) This will have an impact on returns, but I'm not sure how much - although I still think the profit to date would be decent.

[captaincool]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

I said I'd summarise progress after 50 punts, so here's a few thoughts. With a 29% yield it's obviously worth continuing and I'm quite excited about its potential, but I'm not going to declare the system a success yet, for a few reasons: * I assume as the season progresses, the number of consistent scorers will fall, and that the bookies will have more stats to work on so will make fewer errors. If this is the case, then the number of punts should decrease, and the value should become skinnier. This hasn't happened so far this season, though. I probably need to complete the season before giving a full thumbs up or down. * There is a need for multiple accounts. With 12X or similar you can probably get away with two or three accounts as odds between bookies dont seem to vary much. This isn't the case with scorers, where bookies can offer vastly differing odds, and there don't seem to be any who are more generous then others. To date I haven't kept a record of those who are consistently the most generous, which I'll do in future to see if there's a pattern. * Odds seem to fall a little nearer to kick off compared to the odds I quote, which are the best current ones when I post. I suppose this is a trade-off between getting in early, and taking the risk that my chosen player will be named as sub and come on for a near-useless last five minutes. The BBC lists line-ups for the English leagues before kick-off, but I can't find a site that does the same for the European leagues. Does anyone know of one? (If not I'll ask in the general betting forum.) This will have an impact on returns, but I'm not sure how much - although I still think the profit to date would be decent.

I like this system and think it has potential, will be interesting to see how it does develop. I think the last point is crucial, as bookmakers will always cut the odds on players after team news, examples of this (though not necessarily applicable to your system) can be seen in the champions league or carling cup when reserves come in. Uefa.com has a section that will give you line-ups for pretty much every major league across Europe about an hour before kick off.

[bwtw]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

I think the last point is crucial, as bookmakers will always cut the odds on players after team news, examples of this (though not necessarily applicable to your system) can be seen in the champions league or carling cup when reserves come in.

This is only true to an extent. If you're on top of lineups when they come out you can get in some very good team news bets. I'd be interested to see what your average odds are at the moment and comparing them to your strike rate.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Uefa.com has a section that will give you line-ups for pretty much every major league across Europe about an hour before kick off.

Thanks. That means I can do a 'real' test using very small stakes. Of course, that means being by my PC so I won't catch every game.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

I'd be interested to see what your average odds are at the moment and comparing them to your strike rate.

The average odds are just a fraction more generous than 6/4 (the bookies offer an average 38% for the bets I've used). I'm no statistician so I've no idea how much if at all the use variable stakes skews this. The average stake is 144 units.

[Jenno99]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

I said I'd summarise progress after 50 punts, so here's a few thoughts. With a 29% yield it's obviously worth continuing and I'm quite excited about its potential, but I'm not going to declare the system a success yet, for a few reasons: * I assume as the season progresses, the number of consistent scorers will fall, and that the bookies will have more stats to work on so will make fewer errors. If this is the case, then the number of punts should decrease, and the value should become skinnier. This hasn't happened so far this season, though. I probably need to complete the season before giving a full thumbs up or down. * There is a need for multiple accounts. With 12X or similar you can probably get away with two or three accounts as odds between bookies dont seem to vary much. This isn't the case with scorers, where bookies can offer vastly differing odds, and there don't seem to be any who are more generous then others. To date I haven't kept a record of those who are consistently the most generous, which I'll do in future to see if there's a pattern. * Odds seem to fall a little nearer to kick off compared to the odds I quote, which are the best current ones when I post. I suppose this is a trade-off between getting in early, and taking the risk that my chosen player will be named as sub and come on for a near-useless last five minutes. The BBC lists line-ups for the English leagues before kick-off, but I can't find a site that does the same for the European leagues. Does anyone know of one? (If not I'll ask in the general betting forum.) This will have an impact on returns, but I'm not sure how much - although I still think the profit to date would be decent.

I tried a similar anytime goalscorer system at the back end of last season (just by myself, not published on here) and I noticed that the bookmakers appear to calculate the goal scorer odds in different ways which is why there are such big differences. Some base their odds heavily on the match odds whereas others use this to a lesser extent. The more popular goalscorers such as Messi and Ronaldo will have more consistent odds than the lesser known ones. Most of the value in the system seems to go from the bookmakers whose prices are way out: Unibet, Coral and sometimes Skybet and Betfair tend to have good odds. Bet365 offer the biggest range of games though. The biggest flaw I think your system has is working out the 'true' probability for a player scoring a goal, which the Kelly staking is based on. If we take David Trezeguet as an example he had scored in all 7 of his home games since signing for Herecules and none of his away games. You had this down as a 95% chance of scoring, but surely this can't be the true probability. No goalscorer in the world would be able to maintain this sort of strike rate in a top league. On this occasion he scored again and everything seems fine but it was a large (virtual) stake.

[bwtw]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Most of the value in the system seems to go from the bookmakers whose prices are way out: Unibet, Coral and sometimes Skybet and Betfair tend to have good odds. Bet365 offer the biggest range of games though.

Unibet was the big one when I was backing scorers regularly, particularly in the obscurer leagues. Would be very impressed if you can beat Betfair long-term, very rarely do I find any value there at all.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

The biggest flaw I think your system has is working out the 'true' probability for a player scoring a goal' date=' which the Kelly staking is based on. If we take David Trezeguet as an example he had scored in all 7 of his home games since signing for Herecules and none of his away games. You had this down as a 95% chance of scoring, but surely this can't be the true probability. No goalscorer in the world would be able to maintain this sort of strike rate in a top league. On this occasion he scored again and everything seems fine but it was a large (virtual) stake.[/quote'] You're right here. I wasn't anticipating some players having such an outstanding record (a good reason for testing first!) and it's something I'll tweak if this ever becomes a 'real' system. I could do it by imposing a maximum scoring chance (maybe 75%), but I think a cap on a single punt is probably the way to go as it'll give more control.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One for Wednesday: Roland Bergkamp, Excelsior (v NAC Breda), 48%, 11/5, 121 units.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version :@