Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version As an aside, I thought about running a 'sub-system' looking for players who have scored in between a third and half of their home games. However, of seven possibilities in the Conference (only league to have played enough games for the stats to be meaningful), only one was valued low enough by the bookies, and the value there is only marginal (Chris McPhee, Kidderminster, 28 units). I compare that with the every other game or better players - of the ten I identified in the English leagues for today, only three got ruled out due to lack of value (Torres, Liverpool; Mackie, QPR; Tubbs, Crawley). Maybe that means that bookies overvalue irregular scorers, but undervalue regular ones. But I'll still keep an eye on expanding the system, as I was sort of hoping it would catch players like Gerrard, Essien, Lampard, Vidic, etc who score regularly but will never hit my 50% figure.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Adam Hammill, Barnsley (v Portsmouth), 48% strike rate, 3/1 odds, half Kelly = 153 units :D Hieder Helguson, QPR (v Preston) 48%, 5/4, 31 units void Abal Taarabt, QPR (v Preston), 48%, 12/5, 131 units :D Lua Lua, Brighton (v Bristol R), 48%, 13/8, 79 units void Jon Shaw, Gateshead (v Forest Green), 54%, 7/4, 138 units :@ Aaron O'Connor, Rushden (v York), 48%, 13/8, 79 units :@ Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Barrow), 84% (yes, he has scored in 8 out of 9), evens, 339 units :@

A profit today, despite the big Connall bet not coming in. Strike rate today - 2 out of 5. 840 staked, 1057 returned, 26% yield. Overall: Strike rate - 10 of 23 (43%) Yield: 3,114 staked, 4,568 returned (47%)

[MillwallPunter]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Wiltshire Shot, surely Hayter (Doncaster Rovers) is worth a look for the next round of fixtures. Scored in his last five games. Doncasters next fixture is Crystal Palace away, who are relegation candidates, no not just because i'm a Millwall fan. I will be have a few pts on this I think. What's your thoughts? Also what's your thought on Van Dar Vaart and Bale for Tottenham?

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version My system doesn't look for away scorers (lack of time) and would probably need different criteria, so this is more a guess than statistical... I don't think Palace v Doncaster is a game that would stand out as one where I'd look for an away scorer, but you're right, Hayter is definately on a decent run! With four goals in his six aways I guess a system would be looking for odds of around 5/6 or better, perhaps with an average stake. However, you clearly know the match context and player in a non-statistical context, too, which will be helpful. Good luck if you go for it. Van der Vaart is obviously on a great streak at the Lane (but not away) but hasn't quite played enough home games for me, but will almost certainly be picked up when he's played one of two more. The problem my system has with with the Premiership though is that the bookies tend to get their odds spot on, so there's often no value to be had until you go down to the Championship. Despite all the recent hype, Gareth Bale isn't a regular scorer so would probably deserve long odds. Given his current reputation, I suspect he'll be priced too short.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Three for today: Kuzmanovic, Stuttgart (v Koln), 48% strike rate, odds 5/1, 188 units (Bet365 are well out of line here, with the next best available being 10/3) Gronquist, Groningen (v Feyenoord), 68%, 4/1, 300 units Van Wolfswinkel, Utrecht (v NEC), 63%, 13/10, 172 units

[glory6]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Granquist is 6.75 @ Unibet

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Good spot; I'm not sure whether I missed it or whether they hadn't declared their prices when I looked (I do tend to concentrate more on the bookies I've got accounts with). That would raise the stake to 312 units.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Kuzmanovic, Stuttgart (v Koln), 48% strike rate, odds 5/1, 188 units void Gronquist, Groningen (v Feyenoord), 68%, 4/1, 300 units :@ Van Wolfswinkel, Utrecht (v NEC), 63%, 13/10, 172 units :)

One came through (the small one), one loss (the big one), and one void giving a 72 unit loss for the day and reducing the weekend's yield to 6%. Overall: Strike rate: 11 out of 25 (44%) Yield: 3,586 staked, 4,964 returned (38%)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Picks for Tuesday's League 1 and League 2 matches. Craig Westcarr, Notts County (v Swindon), Strike rate 63%, odds 13/5, half Kelly = 243 units Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterboro' (v Leyton O), 48%, 11/8, 50 units Aaron MacLean, Peterboro' (v Leyton O), 48%, 11/8, 50 units Craig Davies, Chesterfield (v Oxford), 48%, 13/10, 39 units Adam La Fondre, Rotherham (v Northampton), 74%, 10/11, 226 units. I need either Westcarr or La Fondre to come in to stand any chance of a profit.:hope I really rate La Fondre (saw him three times last year) and even without the system I'd be happy to back him at 10/11 (kiss of death...)

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Here's some that are 'bubbling under'. I want to keep an eye on players with a strike rate between 33% and 50% to see if (if the system proves profitable) lower rating players can be included. These stats aren't included as part of the system proper. Jack Lester, Chesterfield (v Oxford), 42%, 13/8, 31 units Danny Whittaker, Chesterfield (v Oxford), 42%, 4/1, 137 units Ryan Cresswell, Rotherham (v Northampton), 41%, 10/1, 175 units Grant McCann, Peterboro' (v Leyton O), 36%, 11/4, 63 units Mark Pugh, Bournemouth (v Yeovil), 36%, 9/4, 37 units

[glory6]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Aaron MacLean, Peterboro' (v Leyton O), 48%, 11/8, 50 units

16-10-2010 Football League One Peterborough 5-4 Swindon 0 30-10-2010 Football League One Peterborough 0-3 Brighton 0 13-11-2010 Football League One Peterborough 1-5 Charlton 0 He should not hit the criteria - only scored in a cup game at home.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

16-10-2010 Football League One Peterborough 5-4 Swindon 0 30-10-2010 Football League One Peterborough 0-3 Brighton 0 13-11-2010 Football League One Peterborough 1-5 Charlton 0 He should not hit the criteria - only scored in a cup game at home.

SoccerBase credits him with seven league goals this season, five at home (including a brace). The goals have dried up a bit in the league at home, but he's made it in due to three strikes in the last four (in all venues and competitions).

[Spooner]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Like this thread, good luck with it. :ok

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Craig Westcarr, Notts County (v Swindon), 63%, 13/5, 243 units :@ Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterboro' (v Leyton O), 48%, 11/8, 50 units void Aaron MacLean, Peterboro' (v Leyton O), 48%, 11/8, 50 units :D Craig Davies, Chesterfield (v Oxford), 48%, 13/10, 39 units :@ Adam La Fondre, Rotherham (v Northampton), 74%, 10/11, 226 units :@

It was a bad session tonight, with only one of four coming in, and a loss of 439 units from the 558 staked. It's the third losing session out of eight, although one losing session was negligible (as, to be fair, was one winning session). Overall stats: Strike rate: 12 out of 29 = 41% Yield: staked 4,144, returned 5,082 = 23%

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One for Thursday in the BSP: Antonio Murray, Histon (v Bath), 48%, 15/8, 101 units.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version :@

[bwtw]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Interested in following this but I think you're gonna get destroyed long-term using this approach. Variety of reasons but... - You're not taking into account form at all afaik, if a player has scored 10 goals in 20 games, all 10 in the first 10 and none in the last 10 but you're backing him at evens in an 'average' match, you would make that a worthwhile bet. edit - Ah, I see you are to some degree. It's pretty flawed though, you could still end up with an instance where a player scored a goal 6 games ago but none since1 - You're counting penalties the same as open play goals...penalties are largely random per team (with some outliers due to particular players/styles of play) but your system treats them as part of the player's prowess. - You're treating past stats as a completely reliable indicator of the future. If say Nemanja Vidic were to score 20% of Man Utd's goals this season, that obviously doesn't mean he's likely to keep scoring 20% of Man Utd's goals. As I said, interesting in following this, but I do doubt that you've somehow picked up on something the bookies haven't by following stuff blind!

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version You're right of course - there are any number of reasons why a bet picked up by statistics alone would be a bad punt - as I'm only looking for scorers with a 50% or better record, my strike rate in the low 40%s shows that. However, I'm convinced that the bookies sometimes make some right blunders in setting prices for scorers. The trick is to find ways of picking up as many of those bookies' mistakes as possible, while minimising the system's mistakes. The jury is still out on whether I'm managing it, and that's something I'm not even going to think about until I've tested at least fifty games.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One for Friday night Scott Sinclair, Swansea (v Pompey), 59%, 7/5, 148 units

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version :@

[Wiltshire Shot]

Saturday's picks: Tim Cahill, Everton (v WBA), 63% strike rate, 13/8, 201 units Adam Hamill, Barnsley (v Watford), 53%, 7/2, 197 units Craig Reid, Newport (v Hayes & Yeading) 48%, 11/10, 3 units Alvaro Negredo, Sevilla (v Getafe), 48%, 8/5, 77 units It looks as if I need Hamill to come in to give any profit - but that would be some profit! :hope Edit - missed a one off Cahill's stake - changed to 201 from 20 (hope this isn't classed as after eventing!)

[hernancrespo]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version 2/3 so far

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

Tim Cahill, Everton (v WBA), 63% strike rate, 13/8, 201 units :D Adam Hamill, Barnsley (v Watford), 53%, 7/2, 197 units:@ Craig Reid, Newport (v Hayes & Yeading) 48%, 11/10, 3 units:D Alvaro Negredo, Sevilla (v Getafe), 48%, 8/5, 77 units :@

A relief to have a profitable session after only getting two out of eight between Sunday and Friday. Today was 2 from 4, and 534 returned from 478 staked (12% profit). Overall: Strike rate of 14 from 35 (40%) Yield: 4,871 staked, 5,616 returned, = 15%

[RicardoFuller]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Tim Cahill is on fire atm!!:clap

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two for Sunday: Rydell Poepon, De Graafshap (v Vitesse), 48%, 37/19, 106 units Fernando Lorente, Athletic Bilbao (v Osasuna), 48%, 6/5, 23 units

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two losses. :@

[cavenecadas]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version So many times I've seen the players most expected to score failing to do that. When one of those players attack, 3 of the opponent defenders are on him. I'm not speaking about the big names here, just the average teams. Sometimes coaches are building their strategy upon cancelling they key player of the other team. That made me think " What if you lay them to score ?" . Would it be successful?

[bwtw]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Could you lay me those bets please? Blindly laying players you know are in for scoring lots sounds/is suicidal.

[cavenecadas]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version I din't mean laying them blindly. I remember at the World Cup players at low odds in the scorer market never scored. Messi played 5 matches and scored no goal despite his performance at Barcelona. My question was how often the top rated players are scoring.

[Wiltshire Shot]

Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One for Friday: Andreas Granquist, Groningham (v Arnham), 59%, 7/2, 236 units.