Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Nice work mate. Nibali really faded towards the end. Time trial should be interesting, at least from an overall POV. Nibali back in red will be a good outcome, as it will ensure all teams chase hard on Stage 20 in an effort to put time bonuses into play. From what I have seen today Frank Schleck has found his legs and will be very hard to look past for the stage 20 win. In the meantime, it's the Cav and Cancellara show.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Nice work mate. Nibali really faded towards the end. Time trial should be interesting, at least from an overall POV. Nibali back in red will be a good outcome, as it will ensure all teams chase hard on Stage 20 in an effort to put time bonuses into play. From what I have seen today Frank Schleck has found his legs and will be very hard to look past for the stage 20 win. In the meantime, it's the Cav and Cancellara show.

Cheers. Yep! Rodriguez put 30 odd seconds into Nibali today in the final 1.5km. With the huge climb on Saturday, 22km, with the last 6km of it no less than 10%, this Vuelta isnt' Nibali's yet. Nibali showed he can't go with them if they attack on the steeper part. He was under pressure today. He's still young so can he hold on? All depends on the time trial on Wednesday. If Rodriguez can stay within 1 minute of Nibali, then he would be less than 30 seconds behind Nibali and that climb on Saturday he can win to take time bonuses. Even losing 1:30 on Wednesday is manageable but anything more than that, and I would worry. With 2 category one climbs on Saturday's stage, Katusha really need to hammer those first two climbs with Xacobea to isolate Nibali. Kreuziger is young too and could be fatigued after the Tour. Two young guys against the experienced and older Rodriguez and Mosquera will be very interesting. If they can isolate Nibali and Kreuziger is dropped in the first 5km of that final climb, then they could do damage to Nibali. Some part of that climb hits 18%. Nibali could be in trouble. This race is far from over.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 17 10 units Larsson over Menchov @ $1.45 (Sportingbet UK) Menchov has shown nothing this Vuelta. Larsson is in the form of his life. Larsson is a top time trialist and one that will thrive on this course. 6 units David Millar over Dave Zabriskie @ $1.90 (Bet365) Millar has been targeting this time trial for quite some time. Zabriskie has lost some of his time trialing ability so he can climb better. Millar and Larsson are Cancellara's threat to the overall win. Millar will finish in the top three and that's good enough for me to place this bet. 6 units David Millar over Mikhail Ignatiev @ $1.85 (Bet24) Ignatiev hasn't shown much form at all recently. When on fire, he's a solid time trialist and this course will suit him. But Millar I rate as the better rider. 3 units Luis Leon Sanchez over Vladimir Karpets @ $2.60 (Bet365) This opened up at quite a large number and I jumped on it. Whether or not it was a mistake by bet365 or not, I don't know. But now it's into 2.35. So hopefully the bet isn't void. Sanchez is the Spanish national time trial champion and a very top time trialist. Karpets has lost some of his time trialing ability over the last couple years. He deliberately lost time the other day so he could be fresher. That's the only reservation I have of going big on this one. 4 units Millar top 3 @ $2.50 (Sportingbet UK) Again, I don't need to go into this one. Millar should really do top three here. I expect this price to go in over the next few hours. That Sanchez one went in from 2.60 to 2.20 That Millar over Ignatiev one went in from 1.85 to 1.57 That Millar over Zabriskie one is moving in slowly.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) This opened at Bet365 at $3 and is now at $2. It's 2.80 at Sportingbet at this point in time. Before Stage 16, Caisse were nearly four minutes behind. Thanks to Plaza, Arroyo, Sanchez and Bruseghin, they brought back nearly two and a quarter minutes. If memory serves me correctly, Caisse opened as favourites before the Veulta and were as little as 1.20 at one stage. These odds don't make sense. There are two stages where Caisse can get the 1.33 deficit they have back. The time trial today and the penultimate stage on Saturday. In the time trial, Caisse have Ruben Plaza, Luis Leon Sanchez and Marzio Bruseghin who can all ride top ten. Katusha have Vladimir Karpets and even he isn't showing what he is capable of. He may have rested up the other day and is fresh here, but he's the only one Katusha have to get top ten. Their other riders aren't in the league Caisse are in. So it wouldn't surprise me if Caisse actually get the lead today. Heading onto Saturday's stage, Katusha will need to sacrifice their riders for Rodriguez. The overall win is in his reach and that's what they are focused on. Caisse aren't focused on anything other than the teams classification and will plan accordingly so they have more climbers than Katusha that can defend the lead or pick it up depending what happens in the time trial. How many units is this? This isn't worth a small play. It's worth a huge play. As far as I'm concerned, I'm up nearly 70 units during the Vuelta and up a further 39 with the overall bets. So that's over 100. So I can afford to increase my usual stakes. 15 units Caisse d'Epargne to win the teams classification @ $2.80 (Sportingbet) Truth be told, I was going to sit out the time trial and the rest of the Vuelta and put 25-30 units on this. This is a rock solid bet and the odds are bloody nice.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Good luck with those. The Larson bet over Menchov looks near on bankable, and the odds shift seem to reflect this. Luis Leon looks decent value and the Millar over Zabriskie looks reasonably good given the American has been struggling a bit. Not quite so confident on your team classification bet, though the odds you got where still value. At this stage of the tour form and fitness and freshness count for more, whereas Time trialling ability counts for less (though obviously still the biggest factor). For me, Vladimir Gusev has been riding quite well and I expect him to have a good showing in today's stage. Ignatiev is also a good time trialist, as you'll remember when he came 3rd in the last time trial of last year's tour. Granted, he doesn't have the same level of form, but I still think that the three Russians (Gusev, Karpets, Ignatiev) will produce an aggregate time very close to, if not better than Sanchez, Plaza and Bruseghin.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Good luck with those. The Larson bet over Menchov looks near on bankable, and the odds shift seem to reflect this. Luis Leon looks decent value and the Millar over Zabriskie looks reasonably good given the American has been struggling a bit. Not quite so confident on your team classification bet, though the odds you got where still value. At this stage of the tour form and fitness and freshness count for more, whereas Time trialling ability counts for less (though obviously still the biggest factor). For me, Vladimir Gusev has been riding quite well and I expect him to have a good showing in today's stage. Ignatiev is also a good time trialist, as you'll remember when he came 3rd in the last time trial of last year's tour. Granted, he doesn't have the same level of form, but I still think that the three Russians (Gusev, Karpets, Ignatiev) will produce an aggregate time very close to, if not better than Sanchez, Plaza and Bruseghin.

Yeah, still 1'33 is a small margin and they have the better climbers as Stage 16 suggests. I totally forgot about Ignatiev because I haven't seen his name mentioned at all in 3 weeks. I know his talent and I rate him highly. I just read that Millar only wants to focus on the World's and will be happy if he come stop five. That makes me worry a bit.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) 7 units Cancellara to win @ $1.75 Only a fool would bet against Cancellara. Larsson is his only challenger. 5 units Gilbert over Bennati @ $1.60 Am I missing something here? Bennati isn't in form. Gilbert is. Over a 26km time trial last year in the Vuelta, Gilbert beat Bennati by 3 and a half minutes. A few years ago Bennati was strong against the clock and Gilbert wasn't but Gilbert has come on whilst Bennati has gone backwards in this discipline. Even this year Gilbert has performed better at time trials than Bennati. Considering the form of both riders over the last three weeks, I can't go past Gilbert. 5 units Danielson over Peraud @ $1.65 Danielson is top ten and fighting for top five. He can time trial. Peraud can time trial as well but Peraud looks like he is starting to lose his legs. Danielson will ride hard to cement a top five position tonight. 5 units Plaza over Rodriguez x Cancellara over Larsson @ $2

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Yeah, still 1'33 is a small margin and they have the better climbers as Stage 16 suggests. I totally forgot about Ignatiev because I haven't seen his name mentioned at all in 3 weeks. I know his talent and I rate him highly. I just read that Millar only wants to focus on the World's and will be happy if he come stop five. That makes me worry a bit.

Agreed that Caisse have the better climbers, particularly given that Nibali will regain red. This will force Katusha to use their riders in the chase to ensure that the bonus seconds for the stage win is in play, as they will most likely be required in Purito's then bid to re-claim red. Still, if Katusha maintain or even increase their team classification lead, then I'll certainly look for the team classification odds the following day. Just the one for me for now: Gustav Larsson E/W 1/4 1-2-3 @ 5.00 Sportsbet The important part of this one is the E/W. It would take something extraordinary for Larson to not place on this time trial and given these terms any placing will ensure that money is returned and effectively gives you a free bet on Larsson to win. Cancellara is obviously favourite but he does, from time to time, fail to win a time trial, particularly when the time trial in question isn't a priority goal. Tony Martin beat him in the lead up to the Tour de France, which was Cancellara's goal, and he promptly won the two ITTs in that race. Here his main goal is the Worlds and so there's a small chance Larsson could trump him. Like I said, it will most likely be a neutral bet in that the place payout will cover the win loss, but I do feel that for every time Larsson would fail to place, he would win this stage at least once, and so from that aspect, I consider this one to be value.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) LL Sanchez TOP 3, betfair 12,5 Twice national TT champion in last three years. Won it in 2008/2010 and was second after Contador on 2009. Skilled TT-ist, who for sure will be in Top 10. LL Sanchez showed good skills in previous mountain stage, but failled at the end. He is in form and is attacking Top 10 position in GC, so a very good TT would give him big adavntage over some of the guys ahead of him. Will be a tough test for LL Sanchez, who is imrpoving his form and abilities year after year. But i think the odds are good for the best Spanish TT-ist from the current field :) GL

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) 10 units Gustav Larsson over Denis Menchov @ $1.45 6 units David Millar over Mikhail Ignatiev @ $1.85 6 units David Millar over Dave Zabriskie @ $1.90 5 units Phillipe Gilbert over Danielle Bennati @ $1.60 5 units Tom Danielson over Jean Christophe Peraud @ $1.65 3 units Luis Leon Sanchez over Vladimir Karpets @ $2.60 5 units Plaza over Rodriguez x Cancellara over Larsson @ $2 7 units Cancellara to win @ $1.75 4 units Millar top 3 @ $2.50 -5.85 units for the stage. Could have been a lot worse. Caisse as predicted brought back time to now trail by 20 seconds. It should be theirs.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Quite possibly one of the strangest time trials I have ever seen. Nibali's poor wheel change could very well prove vital, whilst Rodriguez's time trial has to be one of the worst since Rasmussen.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Quite possibly one of the strangest time trials I have ever seen. Nibali's poor wheel change could very well prove vital' date=' whilst Rodriguez's time trial has to be one of the worst since Rasmussen.[/quote'] Yeah, but Rasmussen was few times down, taken wheel and bike change :) For sure Cancelara suffers in the last third of the race. Maybe the winds cause this. I don't think Nibali will have the power to handle with Mosquera guys and Katusha's powers in the 20-th stage. Adding also that Caisse will try for sure a win in the climbing stage. Don't forget Frank Schlek, i think he will try to get into a break along with Rodriguez before the third summit or on it's start. For sure this is the most interesting of Grand tours during 2010. So much turns :))) I didn't count Cancellara's racing days this year, but i think it's too much for him and he may suffer at Worlds TT. Participating almost every mounth in big competitions, puting himself on 100% during Tour de France. And i thought he would smack the field today when there were missing so much of the best TT as Martin, Grabsch, Contador, Vino, Lang, Rogers, Gutierez, Moerenhout. With Millar, Bruzegin far away from their best...

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Just a speccy for tonight: Greg Van Avermaet to win stage 18 @ 251 Sportsbet Whilst this stage will almost certainly be a Cav stage, there is some wind and rain forecast during the middle of the stage, which can always play havoc. Lotto team have been very aggressive on every stage and have managed to get a man in the break on almost every day. On the flatter stages in particular it's been Avermaet they have looked to, and given he would likely be the best sprinter in any breakaway composition, I feel there's enough value in the odds to take this, even with the expected dominance of Cavendish.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) 12 units Mosquera to win @ $2.20 Mosquera has shown on the last few mountain stages he is better than Nibali. 39 seconds with bonus seconds up for grabs at the end of the stage on Saturday is nothing. That can be made up. The only way they will do it is if they isolate Nibali before that climb. And they will. They will get help from everyone. It wouldn't surprise me if Mosquera and Rodriguez team up to try and get Mosquera the win. Rodriguez knows he can't win but he also doesn't want an Italian to win. He would prefer a countryman to win so the two teams may work together. In anycase, I give Mosquera a huge chance of winning and I'm taking these odds that are on offer. Stage 18 7 units Farrar over Bennati @ $1.45

[Ashtee]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Garate @ 101 Sportsbet Rabobank have had a very disappointing Vuelta so far and with Menchov nowhere to be seen this isn't about to change on the GC front. Stage victories are surely all that is left for them and on today's stage Garate looks to be a good candidate given the mountain top finish. As I said yesterday, he became a father during this race, so may want to do something to mark the occasion. Carlos Barredo @ 91 Sportsbet Barredo is an aggressive rider and looked for the break yesterday, though without success. It is quite clear that both he and Cataldo are looking to represent Quickstep every day and I think today the intent will be no different. He is a relatively good climber and should have a strong chance against any breakaway composition.

I tailed you with a Garate/Barredo multi. Thanks for noth'n ... MATE :@! LIFT YOUR GAME! :eyes

[TazaD]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) :rollin

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

I tailed you with a Garate/Barredo multi. Thanks for noth'n ... MATE :@! LIFT YOUR GAME! :eyes

What are you do multi'ing those? Don't you know the only way to make a profit is to back sure fire winners? :eyes Onto tonight, Stage 19: This is a stage where I feel the peleton or the break could easily contest the win. I don't feel that the finish is favourable to the sprinters and so their teams may not put in the work to bring the break back. If they do, I don't necessarily feel it will pay dividends as the finish has gradients of up to 7%. Grega Bole @ 38 Betfair Bole is a very sharp sprinter but also has the ability to handle the steeper stuff, as we saw in the recent Tour of Poland. He has been looking for the breaks most days and as far as breakaway candidates go he is definitely one to include. Phillipe Gilbert @ 15 Centrebet The final little hills towards the end of the race will be perfect platform for this man to launch an attack. We saw yesterday he was willing, and we saw on stage 3 that he is very good at winning. He is preparing for the Worlds and has some very strong form that will continue to build over the course of this month. A must include for today's stage win at these odds. Greg Van Avermaet @ 34 Centrebet Van Avermaet and indeed lotto have been very actively looking for the breaks and I feel that tonight Van Avermaet is their best bet. He should be able to handle the hills toward the finish and can pack a very good sprint, which we saw yesterday when he came 8th. Of the 7 that beat him, I don't feel they have a great chance of making it to the finish with the main field. Joaquim Rodriguez @ 201 E/W 1/4 1-2-3 Paddy Power Given his time deficit in the race for third, I feel Rodriguez could attack if the bonus seconds are up for grabs. The gradients should help him in any bid and given how close he came to Gilbert in stage 3, and when you consider that the Beligan is $15 to win this stage, this is very strong value, particularly when you take the E/W. Vincenzo Nibali @ 401 E/W 1-2-3 Paddy Power If any of the GC riders attack I feel Nibali will try to react. Given these are not the high mountains I think Nibali will be very strong on this stage and the gradients will certainly play away from the sprinters and into the Punchier riders. Taking this one mainly for the place odds but they are exceptional place odds at that. Peter Velits @ 151 E/W 1-2-3 Paddy Power Velits is showing exceptional form so far and if the GC contenders do contest this finish, something I still feel has a decent minority chance, then he will be a big chance. He packs a very fast sprint as we saw when he outsprinted Rodriguez on stage 4. Like my Nibali and Rodriguez bets, the E/W is important here IMO.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

12 units Mosquera to win @ $2.20 Mosquera has shown on the last few mountain stages he is better than Nibali. 39 seconds with bonus seconds up for grabs at the end of the stage on Saturday is nothing. That can be made up. The only way they will do it is if they isolate Nibali before that climb. And they will. They will get help from everyone. It wouldn't surprise me if Mosquera and Rodriguez team up to try and get Mosquera the win. Rodriguez knows he can't win but he also doesn't want an Italian to win. He would prefer a countryman to win so the two teams may work together. In anycase, I give Mosquera a huge chance of winning and I'm taking these odds that are on offer. Stage 18 7 units Farrar over Bennati @ $1.45

Nice win on Bennati. I've always intended to get into H2Hs at some stage but my always find my thought processes to be too trained on trying to pick the stage winners. Agreed on Mosquera, Nibali looks average in the high mountains so as long as the bonus seconds are in play I think he's favourite. This makes me think Liquigas will want to let the break go, so it would really come down to how much Katusha and Saxo Bank want to put the seconds in play in their hunt for third. Cervelo will obviously be no help as they've only got 2 domestiques left and I'm not sure Garmin will support Danielson in a bid to get third as his chances would seem low and they appear to prefer the breakaway attempts. Will certainly make for an interesting stage 20 betting look!

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Head to heads stink tonight. I like the look of Gilbert over Pozzato but if a break goes and Gilbert isn't in it and the peloton don't chase, it's a russian roulette bet. I agree with you. I'm just going to risk to throw away some of my profit tonight as interest more than anything. I like the Gilbert over Pozzato head to head but too many unknowns to back it. .3 units Bole @ $29 (Centrebet) .3 units Van Avermaet @ $34 (Centrebet) .1 unit Rodriguez @ $151 (Sportingbet) .1 unit Velits @ $51 (Sportingbet) .1 unit Nibali @ $41 (Sportingbet) .1 unit Ignatiev @ $101 (Centrebet) 1.5 unit Gilbert @ $15 (Centrebet) 1.5 unit Goss @ $15 (Centrebet) At risk, 4 units. I'm up over 60. This finish will be too hard for Cavendish. Chances are no one wants to work as it's a tough stage tomorrow. Bole - He has proven he can handle stages like this. He could be in the break or could figure at the end if it comes down to the sprint. Van Avermaet - This is backing him in case he slips into the break. Igantiev - At 101, the odds are worth it. If Caisse send someone up the road, Katusha will want someone in there for the teams classification. Rodriguez - 151 is value. He may not win, but that hill before the finish does suit him to launch a platform. Velits, Nibali - if it suits Rodriguez, it will suit them. Gilbert - he tried a solo attack yesterday and I believe he will try again tonight. Either in the break or at the end. Again, if Lotto have no one in the break and it comes back then Gilbert will launch an attack and has a strong chance of staying away. Goss - Has shown he has great form. Cavendish has a strong lead in the points classification. If it comes down to a finish, they will work for Goss.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Overall Bets 8 units Rodriguez over Schleck @ $1.66 5 units Rodriguez to podium @ $3 Rodriguez has shown to be one of the three best climbers in the race. Him, Nibali and Mosquera are heads above Schleck and Velits. Rodriguez should do it on a climb that suits him tomorrow.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Some live betting 17 km before the finish Nick Nuyens 240 BF A lot of news around him to replace Cancelara. Today's finish is very close to the classics with some cobbles, some small hills and some turns. Perfect for Rabobank rider. Sebastian Langeveld 500 BF Very capable young rider Showed qualities in cobblesones races. May try something here. Mikhail Ignatiev 518 BF Won a commong stage at Tireno-Adriatico. Capable to make some late attacks and to succed with them. Showed good form in the Tour de France and probably will try an attack

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Slightly disappointed after seeing that stage. Velits 5th and Nibali 6th... very close to getting some juicy place bets home. Will settle for the Gilbert victory though. Here are stage victory bets for tomorrow, Stage 20: Mosquera is a stronger climber than Nibali and so I think Liquigas would be delighted to let a breakaway win. Xacebo will obviously chase but they aren't the strongest team around. HTC wont do any chasing as it wont benefit Velits to have the bonus seconds in play whilst Cervelo are very weak and incapable of controlling anything in their current state. Frank Schleck @ 9.00 Paddy Power Frank Schleck showed very good legs in the last mountain stage and I feel he will be a strong chance to go one better on this stage. Nibali wont be chasing him and Mosquera has his own battles, of which Schleck is not a factor. Rodriguez and Velits will likely go with Frank but I don't see Velits as a credible stage victory candidate. Rodriguez is obviously a factor but if Frank has the form then he should be able to summit the final climb ahead of the other GC riders. Dennis Menchov @ 76 Paddy Power Menchov looked for the break in the last high mountains stage and I feel he will do so again on this stage. If he does get into the break then there's a high, high chance that he will win from it. Rigoberto Uran @ 91 Paddy Power Uran has looked for the break on several occasions and I've no doubt he or one of his team-mates will look for it on this stage. I doubt it will be Sanchez after his recent efforts and I feel Bruseghin is still suffering from his fall. Furthermore I believe Uran to be the best of their climbers and of all the Caisse riders who could be in the break today, Uran is the one I'd most want to be on. Christian Vandevelde @ 151 Paddy Power Vandevelde has made some strong attempts to get into the break in the past and given the activity of Garmin recently I feel they will look for the break rather than help Danielson, who realistically has no hope of finishing on the podium. It should still be said that Vandevelde's desire to be in the break cannot be guaranteed because of his team-mates high GC position, but should he find himself in one, he's going to be a super chance, and the odds on him are simply too big to ignore. Juan Manuel Garate @ 201 Paddy Power Garate is no stranger to winning queen stages, having won on Ventoux in last year's tour. Rabobank have not won a stage in any Grant Tour this year and have been very disappointing in the Vuelta especially. I expect them to look for the break today and will happily take Garate as he is a man who has the abilities to win from one. JA Gomez Marchante @ 201 Paddy Power As I've mentioned before, Marchante has said he will look for a stage win, and this is obviously his last chance. His team have been fairly invisible in the latter part of this Vuelta and he is the only man in his team who has the abilities to turn this around. Should he make the break he'd likely be one of the better climbers in it and as I've said above, there's a reasonable chance the break could succeed, depending on how hard and well Saxobank and Katusha and Xacebo chase.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) For the record, JA Gomez Marchante price is actually 251, not 201.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 20 8 units Txurruka over Turpin @ $1.50 x Sastre over Nieve @ $2.10 Txurruka is the better climber and Sastre is getting stronger as the race goes on. Nieve shouldn't be up there unless he's in the break. Even then if he is, he'll have a team-mate with him and he'll work his arse off so his team-mate can take the win. 5 units Bruseghin over Plaza @ $1.75 Bruseghin is the better climber here. Despite his crash the other day, he seems to have recovered. 10 units Velits over Tondo @ $1.60 Velits is fighting to keep his third position. Tondo is feeling the fatigue. I know how this will end and it's Velits beating Tondo. 6 units Rodriguez over Schleck @ $1.75 As I said the other night, Rodriguez is one of the best 3 climbers in the race - Schleck isn't. Rodriguez wants to fight to get third spot so he'll attack tonight. The steeper part at the end of the climb in the last 6km suit him and he'll do damage. 6 units Mosquera over Schleck @ $1.75 Mosquera will attack to try and get the win thus should finish ahead of Schleck. Again, Mosquera has shown he's one of the top three climbers in the race. Schleck isn't in his league.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Slightly disappointed after seeing that stage. Velits 5th and Nibali 6th... very close to getting some juicy place bets home. Will settle for the Gilbert victory though. Dennis Menchov @ 76 Paddy Power Menchov looked for the break in the last high mountains stage and I feel he will do so again on this stage. If he does get into the break then there's a high, high chance that he will win from it. Juan Manuel Garate @ 201 Paddy Power Garate is no stranger to winning queen stages, having won on Ventoux in last year's tour. Rabobank have not won a stage in any Grant Tour this year and have been very disappointing in the Vuelta especially. I expect them to look for the break today and will happily take Garate as he is a man who has the abilities to win from one. JA Gomez Marchante @ 201 Paddy Power As I've mentioned before, Marchante has said he will look for a stage win, and this is obviously his last chance. His team have been fairly invisible in the latter part of this Vuelta and he is the only man in his team who has the abilities to turn this around. Should he make the break he'd likely be one of the better climbers in it and as I've said above, there's a reasonable chance the break could succeed, depending on how hard and well Saxobank and Katusha and Xacebo chase.

Yeah, Nibaly would been very nice shot. If the hill at the end was a little bit sharper, he would be ahead. Great values you got for those three great climbers. I saw Garate yeasterday trying to make something and he will be very hungry for today! Here are my pics Garate 75 BF Loves such a queen stages. Proven climber and showed that is getting into form in late stages Vladimir Karpets 300 BF He is on 12-th position at GC and for sure will try to get in Top 10. Probably may enter into a breakway in order to help in late moments to Joaquin Rodriguez. Karpets is capable climber if he had a day Gorka Verdugo 151 Paddy Euskatel showed that they love such stages. Goika is one of the best climbers in the team, but his role always was a domestique. Now if he received a go-go from the team manager may produce something. Carlos Baredo 101 Paddy Despite the fact that already got a win, he continiues to try and to be ahead even in the flat stages, helping his team. If he secures a place in the break, for sure will be among the best in the final climb Marsio Bruzegin Paddy 101 Caisse showed dominance in the breakways earlier in the Vuelta. Bruzegin was injured, but was maybe the best climber in the team during second part of the Tour of Spain. Now it's last chance for him to produce something.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Two for tonight: Matthew Goss @ 17 Centrebet Would have liked this much more had Farrar not taken 2nd a couple of days ago. Goss has been doing some excellent lead out work for Cav and had a chance last week to claim a win, only to refuse it. Whilst the points battle will probably render the idea of riding for Goss as unfeasible, I can't help but feel there is a chance Cav will let Goss take the win and still claim the points jersey. Had the points jersey been sealed up already I'd be all over this one, but still taking it just in case. Wouter Weylandt @ 101 Centrebet Quickstep have been working had for Weylandt in recent days and have really been trying to get a long train going that will counter the Cav. So far it hasn't worked but if they get it right then I think he can pull a surprise. Final sprint stages often through up a surprise winner and at these odds I can't refuse this one.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) That was a crap stage betting wise last night. Final stage 8 units Weylandt over Forster @ $2