Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

[Crouch Potato]

The last Grand Tour of the year starts today. Some of the big names in this event are not here for various reasons. Reigning winner Valverde is suspended. Previous winner Alberto Contador has chosen not to compete. Neither has the other big rider from Spain, Samuel Sanchez. The powerful riders of Lance Armstrong's Radioshack team are also absent as the team themselves were not invited. Second and third place finishers from the Tour, Andy Schleck and Dennis Menchov are both riding. This time, though, Andy will ride for brother Frank. Points Classification Winner - Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver @ 17 E/W 1/4 1-2-3 Sportbset There are two key factors and several ancillary factors that make this one appealing. Firstly, the route of the tour is largely backwards from what you would traditionally expect. The first two weeks has a reduced number of sprinting opportunities, whilst the last week has the better chances for the fast men. The other key factor is that a lot of riders will view this as preparation for the World Championships in Australia next month. Taking these two points and combining them leads to several reasons as to why a traditional fast rider wont win this: 1) Some sprinters may simply abandon the tour either to stay fresh for the Worlds or because they physically can't handle all the climbing in the opening two weeks. 2) Some sprinters may survive the mountains but the energy used to summit them will make them less effective in the sprints. 3) Some sprinters may simply be eliminated on time. 4) The teams of the sprinters will lose domestiques and may not have the fire power needed to reel in the breaks that escape on what would otherwise be considered a stage for the sprinters. 5) Riders who aren't sprinters will find themselves leading or high up in the classification, consequentially ensuring their participation in contesting the jersey. Had the flat stages come first, the non-sprinters wouldn't have bothered, and thus there performances over the mountain stages would be a bit of 'too little, too late'. As far as my pick goes, Rodriguez is for me, the standout sprinter of all the climbers. You may recall his win in the Tour de France where he stayed with Contador up a short, tough climb and sprinted to victory. There will be several finishes or lead ins to the finish with a similar stage profile and Rodriguez will thrive on this. Furthermore, in a straight sprint between he and the other big climbers, he would definitely beat the likes of Menchov and the Schlecks. Taking the E/W is a smart choice as even though it is still quite possible a sprinter will win this jersey, it is less likely that all of the sprinters will finish the tour and place in the competition. For the record, the key sprinters of the race are: Mark Cavendish, Tyler Farrar, Danielle Bennatti, Alessandro Pettachi, Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire and Alan Davis. IMO, if Rodriguez performs to his abilities, half of those sprinters wont be fast enough and consistent enough to finish ahead in this classification, whilst of those that could, the aforesaid factors should hopefully play it's part. If Rodriguez doesn't perform to his abilities, then it wont really matter anyway.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Vuelta Winner - Frank Schleck @ 4.33 E/W 1/4 1-2-3 Sportsbet Frank Schleck comes here with fresh legs after an early exit from the tour. Though this likely hurt his brother in that event it could prove to his benefit here. The first significant factor here is the lack of competition. Contador, Valverde, Basso, Evans, Sanchez Gil are all absent for various reasons, as are the snubbed riders from Lance Armstrong's Radioshack team. Of those riders present, Menchov and Nibali clearly pose the biggest threat. Menchov rode the tour though, and I would have doubts about his ability to repeat the form he showed in July. In the past when he rode the Tour after the Giro he always struggled and the Tour to Vuelta schedule has a similar length of time between events. Nibali rode the Giro but not the tour and should be fresher. However, he has still done more racing than Frank Schleck this year and I feel this could be a significant factor. Also in the favour of Frank is the absence of big Time Trial kms. There are just 46km of ITT in this tour and Frank should be able to limit his losses. The size of those losses should be small enough that he will be able to reclaim them in the mountain stages, particularly given that his number one helper will be none other than brother Andy. Hard to see him not coming top 3 if he finishes, thus making the E/W bet here very appealing value.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 3 Winner - Luis Leon Sanchez @ 26 Sportingbet This is a fairly short stage so I imagine there's a decent chance of the race staying together until the big climb of the day. Though Luis Leon Sanchez isn't the best climber in the peleton, he is close to the best descender, and there is a large descent after the climb, followed by a small passage of undulating road and a small uphill finish. This is the kind of lesser climbing stage that Sanchez thrives on, and it is in these types of races where he has achieved many of his past victories (Classica San Sebastian this year and Paris Nice in years past).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 8 Winner - Vincenzo Nibali @ 6.8 Betfair Nibali has proven to be very strong in the opening stages and tonight's profile should suit him. Though preference would be slightly given to Rodriguez in terms of the final climb, this climb is followed by a short descent. Nibali is a very strong descender and though the descent is quite short I feel that if he summits the final climb with a group he'll just be able to beat them to the line. Stage 8 Winner - David Moncoutie @ 19 Betfair Moncoutie has made no secret that his ambition is to win a 3rd consecutive KOTM title at the Vuelta. Today there are many mountain points available and I expect he will try to be in today's break. Given that riders like Nibali and Rodriguez will be favoured to win from the heads of state then it is possible that their teams wont have adequate support to reel in the break, in which case, Moncoutie is definitely a prime breakaway winner.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 9 Winner - Carlos Barredo @ 31 Sportsbet Although Rodriguez is again the favourite today I feel that the undulating nature of the stage will play in the favour of a breakaway effort as opposed to having a selection of the big contenders. Barredo is a strong breakaway candidate as he has good climbing abilities and a very aggressive nature, as he showed in the tour, where he launched a 40km solo attack and only just got caught.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Stage 8 Winner - Vincenzo Nibali @ 6.8 Betfair Nibali has proven to be very strong in the opening stages and tonight's profile should suit him. Though preference would be slightly given to Rodriguez in terms of the final climb, this climb is followed by a short descent. Nibali is a very strong descender and though the descent is quite short I feel that if he summits the final climb with a group he'll just be able to beat them to the line. Stage 8 Winner - David Moncoutie @ 19 Betfair Moncoutie has made no secret that his ambition is to win a 3rd consecutive KOTM title at the Vuelta. Today there are many mountain points available and I expect he will try to be in today's break. Given that riders like Nibali and Rodriguez will be favoured to win from the heads of state then it is possible that their teams wont have adequate support to reel in the break, in which case, Moncoutie is definitely a prime breakaway winner.

Good call for the stage winner!!! I was out for some weeks on vacation and had limited time to watch cycling, but here are my views with some value points. Overal winner Frank Schleck Paddy 26.00 Already lost some time (1.46 minutes), but we still didn;t saw the high mountains, where others ahead of him will suffer very badly. Andy schleck for sure will give huge hand and will devote himself to his brother, so it's maybe the best hand in the competition. Other big plus for the Frank will be that the TT is just after a rest day, so he may have a chance to train the route with such a great TT specialists as Cancelara and Larson. Denis Menchov 51.00 Lost 3.30 minutes, but as well as Frank, both hilly stages do not suits well to his profile. He will wait for the end of the second week to make his move. Obviously one of the best TT specialists from the GC contenders, which gives him a great plus for the 46 km TT stage in the third week. In his recent interview, given before loosing so much time, he said that the race will be decided in the end of second week and the following TT. So it's a clue for his plans. Don't forget the 20-th stage, where we have very, very tough mountain finish :)

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) I am adding one more very strong contender for General classification David Arroyo 100 Betfair Showed great climbing abilities during Giro, where came close to the win, but finished second after Basso. Caisse team is the strongest this year with 6 guys in the first 21 on the current classification. Arroyo is 2.15 min back, which isn't so much regarding the odds as he was announced team leader before the start of the event. For sure he will put some presure in the mountains top finishers that will follow.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Good call for the stage winner!!! I was out for some weeks on vacation and had limited time to watch cycling, but here are my views with some value points. Overal winner Frank Schleck Paddy 26.00 Already lost some time (1.46 minutes), but we still didn;t saw the high mountains, where others ahead of him will suffer very badly. Andy schleck for sure will give huge hand and will devote himself to his brother, so it's maybe the best hand in the competition. Other big plus for the Frank will be that the TT is just after a rest day, so he may have a chance to train the route with such a great TT specialists as Cancelara and Larson. Denis Menchov 51.00 Lost 3.30 minutes, but as well as Frank, both hilly stages do not suits well to his profile. He will wait for the end of the second week to make his move. Obviously one of the best TT specialists from the GC contenders, which gives him a great plus for the 46 km TT stage in the third week. In his recent interview, given before loosing so much time, he said that the race will be decided in the end of second week and the following TT. So it's a clue for his plans. Don't forget the 20-th stage, where we have very, very tough mountain finish :)

Cheers mate. Good luck with your bets. One for tonight: Stage 10 Winner - Grega Bole @ 25 Betfair Many factors in play here. First off, I can't tell if a break will succeed or whether a smallish peleton will contest. Either way, though, I think Bole can win from both. He is quite capable over the smaller hills and has a very decent sprint, and this would ensure his competitiveness in a breakaway and also see him with a chance if it comes down to a sprint. Furthermore, his team no longer have viable objectives to work for (Kaschekin way down, Pettachi abandoned) so he should have the license to either go for the break if he wants to, whilst at the same time, should have the support of the team to help chase things down if the option seems viable.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 11 Winner - Juan Manuel Garate @ 51 Sportsbet Though I don't see the break as having the best chance tonight I do feel that Garate is a clear breakaway winner candidate. He is well down on the GC to not be a threat and is himself a very good climber, as evidenced by his victory at the top of Mount Ventoux in last year's tour. Though not as steep, today's stage does have some similarities with that tour stage, as it is largely flat right up until the end when the mountain hits. Aside from Moncoutie, who is very short IMO, there is no better outside pick than Garate, and with team leader Menchov a little down on the standings, he may well be free to ride for himself today.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 11 Winner Luis Leon Sanchez Paddy 67 If he was on top form for sure will be the leader of the team. Strong climber, who made serious impression in last few years Tour de France. Before the start of the competition he said that his main objective is to get a Stage win. The last climb suits ok for him. David Arroyo Betfair 55 One of the pre race favorites lose some time in earlier stages. He is the clear leader of the team before the start. During Giro showed that has some very nice climbing in common stages. Caisse are making as always very strong Vuelta already scoring two victories. Now both Arroyo and Luis Leon Sanches has huge chances to make hattrick.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Stage 11 Winner - Juan Manuel Garate @ 51 Sportsbet Though I don't see the break as having the best chance tonight I do feel that Garate is a clear breakaway winner candidate. He is well down on the GC to not be a threat and is himself a very good climber, as evidenced by his victory at the top of Mount Ventoux in last year's tour. Though not as steep, today's stage does have some similarities with that tour stage, as it is largely flat right up until the end when the mountain hits. Aside from Moncoutie, who is very short IMO, there is no better outside pick than Garate, and with team leader Menchov a little down on the standings, he may well be free to ride for himself today.

Just read that Garate became a father tonight, so for sure he will have an extra motivation for the win!!! Seems Rabo team works very strongly today. Good point!

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Very interesting stage today ! Rodriguez and Nibali were in trouble. Seems that more then perfect team not always win the stage. Like very much the way Frank Schleck acts. Seems he is back on his form, without being on max, just waiting and limiting the losess. Aiton was in very good shape in the first week, now doing very well in the second with amazing tactical display today. But if he will be able to keep the same until the third? Nibali looks constant enough to be a serious danger for the first place. Caisse seems to keep their big bullets for the next series of mountains :) And it will be a real western there. So sorry for Garate, i played him at 81 on live around 30-35 km before the finish, where he was left with Menchov, but seems the legs weren't with him today.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 12 Both at 251 at Will Hill, but i took it on 101 at BF, cos can't play at Will Hill Samuel Dumoulin A Flat stage with some very nice second category climb and another not so bad hill before the end. My expectation is that Dumoulin and Greg probably will enter into breakway. They are very good sprinters and if a big group is formed will be easy for them to score a win. Otherwise their chances are not so nice against Cav and Farrar. Dumoulin had a great season so far. Winning four stages (including one at Volta a Catalunya) and one day competition. Loves such profiles and often may be seen in breakways. Greg Van Avermaet Scored a third place recently here at Vuelta. Former stage winner in very common profile during 2008 Tour of Spain. Both are far away from all kind of classifications to be seen as a danger if they join a breakway

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 14 Carlos Barredo @ 81 Sportsbet Barredo is normally quite active in these types of stages and I expect him to attack again today. Last week he got himself into the lead group but his chance was lost when he was struck by food poisoning. He attacked a few days later, though, showing he is still keen to animate this race, and given that Igor Anton has regained the lead, I think a break has a decent chance of surviving given that Anton's team, Euskaltel, aren't the strongest around and may struggle to control the race. Pierre Rolland @ 101 Sportingbet Bbox have been quite active on the mountain stages, mostly with their leader Tschopp. Certainly the team will be looking to be in the break, and Rolland is one of just a few who could win from it. Furthermore, given that he should be a bit fresher than Tschopp today (due to the latter's big break the other day), I think the value lies with the Frenchman. Jose Angel Gomez Marchante @ 101 Sportingbet Marchante said earlier in the Vuelta that he would look for a stage victory in the mountains. Today's profile has a rather steep but short climb at the finish, with some classified climbs leading into the finish. This parcours should be favourable to the break, as will the fact that the race leader's relatively poor ability to control the race. All in all 101 is too big for a rider who is both looking and capable of winning in the mountains and on a day where the stage can easily favour a breakaway victory. David Arroyo @ 101 Sportingbet Caisse have many weapons to fire at this race and today I think they will try for the break. They have Bruseghin, Plaza and Uran all in the top 10 overall, whilst a little further down we have Luis Leon Sanchez and David Arroyo @ 8mins. Interestingly, race leader Anton has a fairly weak team and they wont be able to control the race the way Saxo or Katusha etc. can. As such, they may elect to send rider after rider into the break to try and soften up the Basque team. Euskaltel will surely have to chase Bruseghin, Plaza and Uran, but given that Arroyo is a little further behind, they may well decide just to let him go, seeing it as a better alternative and knowing that they don't have the power to reel in every escape.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) One more Juan Manuel Garate @ 51 Centrebet Garate became a father the other day and I think he may try and get a win to dedicate to his new family member. Rabobank leader Menchov is now out of the GC battle so Garate should have a license to ride for himself, particularly given the above factors. The stage itself could be favourable to a break whilst the climb at the end will mean Garate would be one of the favourites to win from a break, should he get into it.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 15 Jose Angel Gomez Marchante @ 100 Betfair As I said yesterday, Marchante has declared his intent to look for a mountain stage victory. There are only three possible stages left including this one, so there's a good chance he could look for the move today. At 100s there is certainly enough value for me to take it. Garate @ 101 Sportsbet Rabobank have had a very disappointing Vuelta so far and with Menchov nowhere to be seen this isn't about to change on the GC front. Stage victories are surely all that is left for them and on today's stage Garate looks to be a good candidate given the mountain top finish. As I said yesterday, he became a father during this race, so may want to do something to mark the occasion. Carlos Barredo @ 91 Sportsbet Barredo is an aggressive rider and looked for the break yesterday, though without success. It is quite clear that both he and Cataldo are looking to represent Quickstep every day and I think today the intent will be no different. He is a relatively good climber and should have a strong chance against any breakaway composition. Ezequiel Mosquera @ 5 Sportingbet AU Today's mountain top finish is a bit longer and this will play in favour of Mosquera. With Anton now out of the race I think Mosquera is the best candidate when you consider both pure climbing ability (where he's beaten by Schleck and Menchov) and form (Schleck and Menchov have virtually none). It is not guaranteed to be a stage for the big names, but Mosquera stands out quite a bit if it is, and when you consider the odds available I think he is an important part of any bet selections for today's stage.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Crouch - Brilliant work. I never knew this forum existed until someone told me from another forum and so I have just been having a glance every now and then. I'm involved with another forum where I bet on cycling too with success. Good work today and for the Vuelta in fact. Barredo looks good. He is one rider I dismissed today unfortunately. If you want, I can share my bets in here too. Where are you based? I'm in Melbourne.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Crouch - Brilliant work. I never knew this forum existed until someone told me from another forum and so I have just been having a glance every now and then. I'm involved with another forum where I bet on cycling too with success. Good work today and for the Vuelta in fact. Barredo looks good. He is one rider I dismissed today unfortunately. If you want, I can share my bets in here too.

Thanks mate, and :welcome to PL There's not too many cycling punters around here, so if you could join in the action that would be great :ok Good luck for the rest of the Vuelta. EDIT Answer: I'm in Brisbane. You going to the World Championships?

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Thanks mate, and :welcome to PL There's not too many cycling punters around here, so if you could join in the action that would be great :ok Good luck for the rest of the Vuelta. EDIT Answer: I'm in Brisbane. You going to the World Championships?

Sure am. Are you? Yeah, I might post in here. Head to Heads is usually where I get all the success. So that will give a different viewpoint.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Sure am. Are you?

Thought about it, but just not really feasible at the minute. Looking forward to watching it though, and have a couple of picks in minds for it as well. Determined to catch the Tour one day though. Would be great fun to just follow it around each day. The French might need to do something about their gambling laws first though :lol

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) What's the French gambling laws like? Just do it online. I want to go to the Tour as well one day. It will happen eventually. Yeah the World's - here is some of the things I've thought of. Time Trial - Martin, Cancellara and Larsson will finish top 3. Can't see anyone nudging them out. I will see who starts where though before I do head to heads. I had a head to head against Larsson last year and didn't take into account that Cancellara would overtake him so he had someone to chase. I think that happened, well something similar happened. Cancellara I originally pegged for the road race but in recent times I like the look of Gilbert and perhaps Goss. Under 23 Men's road race - Michael Matthews depending on what his odds are.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 16 of the Vuelta. Early leans in the H2H department is fading Schleck again. He'll just about give up soon. Fading Tondo might be the other thing. Rodriguez could very well take red tomorrow. I would expect Rodriguez and Mosquera to attack Nibali at any opportunity. For the winner of the stage. Moncoutie will definitely be in the break. He'll want to seal his KOM jersey tomorrow. High placings in the two cat 1's tomorrow will seal it for him. He'll be around $10 for the stage win. Garate, Marchante, Vande Velde are the others I will probably back for the win. Also Arroyo. Vande Velde and Arroyo tried to get into the break today. Don't know who else at the moment. Will wait to see what the odds say. These guys will be at decent long odds.

[Spooner]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Stage 15Carlos Barredo @ 91 Sportsbet Barredo is an aggressive rider and looked for the break yesterday, though without success. It is quite clear that both he and Cataldo are looking to represent Quickstep every day and I think today the intent will be no different. He is a relatively good climber and should have a strong chance against any breakaway composition.

Nice one Crouch.:clap:clap:clap

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Stage 16 All bets with Sportingbet 12 units Rodriguez over Sastre @ $1.45 Rodriguez is currently four seconds behind Nibali. Nibali can put two minutes into Rodriguez in the time trial on Wednesday because Rodriguez is not great against the clock. Rodriguez knows he has to attack tonight and gain time on Nibali. Nibali won't go into the red and he'll ride a constant pace like he has done. He won't care if Rodriguez gets 15 seconds on him because he'll be able to stamp the authority the day after the rest day in the time trial. Rodriguez, Nibali and Mosquera have proven to be the three best climbers in the Tour. I rate them in the 'number 1' category. The number 2 category are Peter Velits, Nicholas Roche and Tom Danielson The number 3 category are Carlos Sastre, Frank Schleck and Xavier Tondo. The number 4 category are David Moncoutie, Vladimir Karpets and Tejay Van Garderen. What that means is Velits and Roche are the only two that can sit on the wheels of the category 1 riders. Category 3 and 4 riders can't even sit on the category 2 wheels. So in terms of crossing the line first, the three favourites should have an advantage over the rest. 6 units Rodriguez over Nibali @ $1.80 Like I said before, Rodriguez needs to attack tonight and get time on Nibali. Whether or not he gets time on Nibali remains to be seen, but considering the position of these two riders, Rodriguez has a 90-95% chance of crossing the line ahead of Nibali. 8 units Mosquera over Nibali @ $1.60 Mosquera needs to attack tonight. If the two Spanish riders work together, they could drop Nibali. Mosquera is getting better as the Tour goes on and the three climbs tonight with a longer uphill finish will suit him. I was going to just leave it as Rodriguez over Sastre and sit it out, but I believe there is strong value in the other two plays. Basically in short, Nibali will play the defensive game tonight. In the Giro, Liquigas were hammering the earlier climbs and riders were dropping like flies. Both Katusha and Xacobea Galicia have stronger climbers and if these two teams light up the race on the earlier climbs, Nibali may not have Kreuziger with him and if that's the case, Nibali could struggle. That's the only way that Mosquera and Rodriguez can win this Vuelta and that is to isolate Nibali before the last climb.

[BillyHills]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Nice one Crouchy mate:clap

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Superb call as always Crouchy :notworthy

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19) Cheers guys. :ok Going a similar route tonight for various reasons. Mostly, if the favourites contest the stage win, I think Mosquera will win. His odds are too short for my liking though. Furthermore, I don't think the big teams will necessarily put too much emphasis on this stage victory, so at the very least, I feel the value lies with the break. Here are my selections: All bets are with Sportsbet, which almost always has the same odds as Paddy Power. Laurens Ten Dam to win stage @ 81.00 Rabobank only have stage wins left to look for. Ten Dam looked for the break yesterday and he may well do so again today. He is a strong climber and would have a good chance from any breakaway composition. JA Gomez Marchante to win stage @ 81.00 Same reasons as last few days. Has declared his intent to look for a stage win, and would have a good chance from any breakaway composition. J C Peraud to win stage @ 126.00 Lotto have looked for the breaks on most days. Peraud is probably the only rider from their team who could win from a break on a stage like this/ Christian Vandevelde to win stage @ 67.00 Very good bet. Davids Millar and Zabriskie were in the break two days ago and Vandevelde tried very hard yesterday to be in the break. The team is clearly aiming for the break and if CVDV gets into one he will likely be favourite to win from it. David Arroyo to win stage @ 51.00 Like CVDV, tried very hard yesterday to be in the break and would be a favourite to win from it. Juan Manuel Garate to win stage @ 41.00 Also a Rabobank rider so his team will likely look for the break. As mentioned a few times, he may well have added motivation to mark the birth of his child.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Stage 16 All bets with Sportingbet 12 units Rodriguez over Sastre @ $1.45 Rodriguez is currently four seconds behind Nibali. Nibali can put two minutes into Rodriguez in the time trial on Wednesday because Rodriguez is not great against the clock. Rodriguez knows he has to attack tonight and gain time on Nibali. Nibali won't go into the red and he'll ride a constant pace like he has done. He won't care if Rodriguez gets 15 seconds on him because he'll be able to stamp the authority the day after the rest day in the time trial. Rodriguez, Nibali and Mosquera have proven to be the three best climbers in the Tour. I rate them in the 'number 1' category. The number 2 category are Peter Velits, Nicholas Roche and Tom Danielson The number 3 category are Carlos Sastre, Frank Schleck and Xavier Tondo. The number 4 category are David Moncoutie, Vladimir Karpets and Tejay Van Garderen. What that means is Velits and Roche are the only two that can sit on the wheels of the category 1 riders. Category 3 and 4 riders can't even sit on the category 2 wheels. So in terms of crossing the line first, the three favourites should have an advantage over the rest. 6 units Rodriguez over Nibali @ $1.80 Like I said before, Rodriguez needs to attack tonight and get time on Nibali. Whether or not he gets time on Nibali remains to be seen, but considering the position of these two riders, Rodriguez has a 90-95% chance of crossing the line ahead of Nibali. 8 units Mosquera over Nibali @ $1.60 Mosquera needs to attack tonight. If the two Spanish riders work together, they could drop Nibali. Mosquera is getting better as the Tour goes on and the three climbs tonight with a longer uphill finish will suit him. I was going to just leave it as Rodriguez over Sastre and sit it out, but I believe there is strong value in the other two plays. Basically in short, Nibali will play the defensive game tonight. In the Giro, Liquigas were hammering the earlier climbs and riders were dropping like flies. Both Katusha and Xacobea Galicia have stronger climbers and if these two teams light up the race on the earlier climbs, Nibali may not have Kreuziger with him and if that's the case, Nibali could struggle. That's the only way that Mosquera and Rodriguez can win this Vuelta and that is to isolate Nibali before the last climb.

Good luck with those mate. Mosquera over Nibali looks very strong. Don't think anyone bar the deparated Anton was/is capable of matching Mosquera on these longer climbs. :hope He beats Nibali after the break wins though!

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Good luck with those mate. Mosquera over Nibali looks very strong. Don't think anyone bar the deparated Anton was/is capable of matching Mosquera on these longer climbs. :hope He beats Nibali after the break wins though!

Cheers. Yeah, will be interesting to see what happens today. Wait for that break of ten to go out, then back Mosquera for the stage win I think depending on what the time is.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling - La Vuelta Espana (Aug 28-Sep 19)

Stage 16 All bets with Sportingbet 12 units Rodriguez over Sastre @ $1.45 6 units Rodriguez over Nibali @ $1.80 8 units Mosquera over Nibali @ $1.60

Nice way to start with the board. Some of you may know of me anyway. Crouchy and I teaming up would make this board very profitable on cycling. Bad luck on the winner Crouchy - Get em on Wednesday.