Tennis - 12-18 July

[Atko]

Men's clay court events from Bastad and Stuttgart, while the women head to the red brick of Palermo and Prague. Fill yer boots chaps :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Early antepost selections from me... Bastad: Outright There's actually quite a decent field heading to Bastad on paper but I can't see past the winner of last year's event and the top seed: Robin Soderling. He's in the weaker half of the draw and the other top player is David Ferrer. I feel Soderling would have the edge on Ferrer on home soil - he'll be able to hit through the Spaniard's defences, and he also leads the H2H 6-2. His route to the final would probably read Vinciguerra, Starace and Ferrer, which would be a decent warm-up to face either Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Verdasco, who look the likely contenders from the bottom half. I reckon Almagro poses the biggest threat - he's fresh, does well on clay and beat Verdasco recently at Roland Garros. I'd be happy to make a play on him each way too at decent odds of 6.00. Soderling's price is appropriately short at 2.50 but he's proven on this surface and won't fear anyone in the draw. Hard to see past the defending champion. Selections: - Robin Soderling to win Bastad at 2.50 with Stan James (5/10) - Nicolas Almagro to win Bastad each way at 6.00 with Stan James (2/10) Stuttgart: Outright This tournament has a wide-open feel about it for me. Nikolay Davydenko is the top seed but he's struggling for fitness and sharpness. His draw isn't kind either - will probably face Jeremy Chardy, who won this last year, and Victor Hanescu en route to the semis. If he gets through that, he'll be fatigued and it could open the door to an outsider. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a dangerous player on clay and on home soil and although he faces a tough route through (Florian Mayer, followed by Gael Monfils), I reckon he can take both of them. Kohlschreiber is a confidence player and will get better if racks up wins. The bottom half looks weak with Jurgen Melzer, Albert Montanes and Juan-Carlos Ferrero the main players. All are decent on clay but I can see them grinding each other down in a section that also includes Gilles Simon and Juan Ignacio Chela. I reckon it'll pay to side with an outsider here and the draw could perhaps open up for Kohlschreiber. He has good form on clay this year and will enjoy playing in Germany. Selection: - Philipp Kohlschreiber to win Stuttgart each way at 9.00 with Stan James (1/10) :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Not a huge amount to play with today, but I like a couple in Bastad. Bastad: Daniel Brands vs Andreas Vinciguerra This is quite an intriguing little match-up here on the opening day in Sweden. Vinciguerra is a tennis anomaly. He very rarely plays on the main Tour yet always turns out for this tournament. Last year he made the semi-finals in an impressive run that saw him scalp Florent Serra, Guillermo Canas and Jurgen Melzer. He's a talented player, an awkward lefty with a good clay game. Apart from last year's run, he made the final in the early noughties twice and has good memories of this place. He will do everything to get a good result here. His opponent, Brands, is an up-and-coming player. He went on a good run at Wimbledon but his game still revolves around his serve. In rallies, he's still a little one-dimensional and relies on his big forehand. He comes into this match as favourite as he can play on clay but I still think Vinciguerra can upset him here. The Bastad crowd love him and he has the ability to take this. The odds are high on Vinciguerra - 3.00 in some places - but I'm going to play the +3 game handicap, which gives a bit more security. This match should be fairly close whatever the outcome and I feel Vinciguerra can cover this at a good price of 2.14. Selection: - Andreas Vinciguerra +3 games AH at 2.14 with Pinnacle (4/10) Bastad: Fabio Fognini vs Filip Prpic Another Swede takes to the red brick of Bastad here but I feel Fognini will take this one pretty comfortably. The 28-year-old Prpic has done nothing of note recently. He hangs around the Challenger Tour and usually falls at the first or second hurdle. He's playing a very accomplished clay courter in Fognini here, who has suddenly rediscovered a bit of form. He made R32 at Roland Garros and SW19 along the way, beating Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco respectively, and is a man with very good groundstrokes and movement on this surface. The only fear is that he is playing a Swede but Prpic doesn't have the necessary weapons to hurt someone like Fognini. The Italian just needs to keep his game tight and he'll find a way past him. I looked at the 2-0 Fognini market but it's too short at 1.70 for me - I'm going to take a slightly higher risk and play the -4.5 game handicap.I feel there's a definite class difference here and Fognini should be able to cover this handicap. Selection: - Fabio Fognini -4.5 games at 1.885 with Pinnacle (4/10) :hope

[Forlan]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Thank you Atko,I'll follow you today :)

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Anna Tatishvili vs Magdalena Rybarikova. Over 20.5 games. 1.91 @ Pinnacle (5/10) This is a bit short for me. Rybarikova is just about the most inconsistent player on tour alongside the likes of Anastasia Rodionova. I'm talking about inability to win in 2 sets. Last 5 matches she has played all have gone the full distance. Besides clay really is not here thing and she actually might struggle in this match even against player like Tatishvili. Funny thing about this match-up is that Anna beat Rybarikova earlier in the year in Charleston which is supposed to be a clay court tournament but is more like a parody of clay. That match went 3 sets as well and I think today we will have yet another very tight match. Polona Hercog -4 (Asian Handicap) v Tatjana Malek. 1.91 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Hercog has got huge potential and should be much higher in the ranking than she is a the moment. The problem for her is inconsistency. Though I think she will have a straight forward win. Well unless she decides to pull off another of her famous freak shows. Malek is mostly playing on challenger tour and WTA is barely her level. She plays soft tennis and that will hurt her. Don't think she can outsmart player like Hercog who has got very powerful game and if everything clicks she should be able to record easy win. Daniel Brands vs Andreas Vinciguerra. Over 22 games. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (10/10) This is totally wrong. Wake up people! Daniel Brainless Brands is playing. The German is just about serve. It will be very tough to break him but on the other hand he won't bother trying to break his opponent. Tie-breaks in prospect and definitely over 22 games.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Jill Craybas to beat Akgul Amanmuradova. 1.83 @ William Hill (10/10) Odds dropping on Craybas and if I'm perfectly honest I'm surprised you still can get this sort of price on Craybas to win. She has got fantastic H2H having beaten Amanmuradova all 4 times they played and has not even lost a set to Akgul. Saw Craybas play in Sweden last week against Pennetta. She played very aggressive tennis and lost by 4-6, 4-6 to one of the best players in the world, especially on clay. Amanmuradova has been out of form for ages and I can not see her avoiding a defeat here.

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Guys, i just created an a/c at pinnacle there now as my usual bookie bet365 doesn't have odds up for AH & overs/unders. But must admit i'm a bit confused by this site. Can't find AH and when i go to overs/unders in brands/vinciguerra match it has +103 beside over 22 and -120 beside under 22. Not sure what any of that means :unsure. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

[HoRSoVsKi]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Top left choose decimal odds

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Cheers :ok Know where i can find the asian handicaps?

[pupsaa]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

Anna Tatishvili vs Magdalena Rybarikova. Over 20.5 games. 1.91 @ Pinnacle (5/10) This is a bit short for me. Rybarikova is just about the most inconsistent player on tour alongside the likes of Anastasia Rodionova. I'm talking about inability to win in 2 sets. Last 5 matches she has played all have gone the full distance. Besides clay really is not here thing and she actually might struggle in this match even against player like Tatishvili. Funny thing about this match-up is that Anna beat Rybarikova earlier in the year in Charleston which is supposed to be a clay court tournament but is more like a parody of clay. That match went 3 sets as well and I think today we will have yet another very tight match.

Thanks for the pick, Psycho! :) At 6-0 I thought it was going down, but you were so right about Rybarikova's inconsistency. Cheers! :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

Cheers :ok Know where i can find the asian handicaps?

You find them okay mate?

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July No mate :(

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

No mate :(

Once you've logged in, there should be a bit on the right hand side that says tennis betting, with a list of tournaments. Click on the plus sign next to them and that'll drop down the various rounds (like SkiStar Bastad R1). Click on that and it'll take you in to the odds for each match. It'll have the outright odds, the game line and handicap odds there.

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

Daniel Brands vs Andreas Vinciguerra. Over 22 games. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (10/10) This is totally wrong. Wake up people! Daniel Brainless Brands is playing. The German is just about serve. It will be very tough to break him but on the other hand he won't bother trying to break his opponent. Tie-breaks in prospect and definitely over 22 games.

Winner :clap

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Pathetic Daniel Brands. Just about did the job! Hercog easy money as expected and massive cheers to Miss Tatishvili for not giving in. Good day all round with Craybas still to come :)

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

Once you've logged in' date=' there should be a bit on the right hand side that says tennis betting, with a list of tournaments. Click on the plus sign next to them and that'll drop down the various rounds (like SkiStar Bastad R1). Click on that and it'll take you in to the odds for each match. It'll have the outright odds, the game line and handicap odds there.[/quote'] Am i right in saying that the game spread odds are the asian handicap odds as opposed to ordinary handicap where i don't get my money back in case of a tie? Apologies for all the stupid questions :unsure

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

Am i right in saying that the game spread odds are the asian handicap odds as opposed to ordinary handicap where i don't get my money back in case of a tie? Apologies for all the stupid questions :unsure

That's spot on.

[otherside]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July pakelly: pls. stay in the topic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap great picks psycho! cheers mate :clap and don't worry, Brands can still get it done... :tongue2

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

That's spot on.

Cheers :ok

[DAO]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July great results. although i didn't take the anyway really glad for you friends

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Tim Smyczek / 1.62 / Will Hill Not the best odds for American but will take them anyway. Both players are hardcourters playing on challengers and Smyczek is on a good run lately. Few impressive wins for players of his calibre (Young, Phau, Kim, Witten) suggesting that he's raising his form from match to match and his opponent Lindahl is still strggling to find the right rhytm. They are 1-1 in h2h meetings but Lindahl won on clay, and Smyczek won on hardcourt in Carson City, less than 2 months ago. GL.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

Not a huge amount to play with today, but I like a couple in Bastad. Bastad: Daniel Brands vs Andreas Vinciguerra This is quite an intriguing little match-up here on the opening day in Sweden. Vinciguerra is a tennis anomaly. He very rarely plays on the main Tour yet always turns out for this tournament. Last year he made the semi-finals in an impressive run that saw him scalp Florent Serra, Guillermo Canas and Jurgen Melzer. He's a talented player, an awkward lefty with a good clay game. Apart from last year's run, he made the final in the early noughties twice and has good memories of this place. He will do everything to get a good result here. His opponent, Brands, is an up-and-coming player. He went on a good run at Wimbledon but his game still revolves around his serve. In rallies, he's still a little one-dimensional and relies on his big forehand. He comes into this match as favourite as he can play on clay but I still think Vinciguerra can upset him here. The Bastad crowd love him and he has the ability to take this. The odds are high on Vinciguerra - 3.00 in some places - but I'm going to play the +3 game handicap, which gives a bit more security. This match should be fairly close whatever the outcome and I feel Vinciguerra can cover this at a good price of 2.14. Selection: - Andreas Vinciguerra +3 games AH at 2.14 with Pinnacle (4/10) Bastad: Fabio Fognini vs Filip Prpic Another Swede takes to the red brick of Bastad here but I feel Fognini will take this one pretty comfortably. The 28-year-old Prpic has done nothing of note recently. He hangs around the Challenger Tour and usually falls at the first or second hurdle. He's playing a very accomplished clay courter in Fognini here, who has suddenly rediscovered a bit of form. He made R32 at Roland Garros and SW19 along the way, beating Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco respectively, and is a man with very good groundstrokes and movement on this surface. The only fear is that he is playing a Swede but Prpic doesn't have the necessary weapons to hurt someone like Fognini. The Italian just needs to keep his game tight and he'll find a way past him. I looked at the 2-0 Fognini market but it's too short at 1.70 for me - I'm going to take a slightly higher risk and play the -4.5 game handicap.I feel there's a definite class difference here and Fognini should be able to cover this handicap. Selection: - Fabio Fognini -4.5 games at 1.885 with Pinnacle (4/10) :hope

Vinciguerra d. Brands 7-6 6-7 6-4 - WIN Fognini d. Prpic 6-7 6-3 6-4 - LOSS Slight profit from today's picks, Fognini missed out by 0.5 of a game but those are the breaks. Good work Psycho on another full house :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July One early selection for tomorrow... Bastad: Andrey Golubev vs Maximo Gonzalez I feel Maximo Gonzalez is being underrated by the bookies here. Just a few weeks back off an injury lay off but showed his undoubted clay ability by getting to the final of a Challenger (think it was Turin) before Wimbledon, where he was tired and still took a set off Lleyton Hewitt. Definitely favours these conditions more than Golubev, who has limited form on clay and has only recorded one big scalp on the dirt, beating Jeremy Chardy in Monte Carlo. Limped out of Roland Garros and did nothing at Wimbledon so his form isn't especially hot. He's a better hard court player and isn't a guy who tends to fight when the chips are down. Small stakes are advised but I feel the Argentine is worth the gamble. Selection: - Maximo Gonzalez at 2.13 with Betdaq (3/10) :hope

[Jenspm]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July The 1.96 offered on Zeballos @ betfair has to be a massive price, surely? He's shown great progress the last to years, is a solid player on the clay and has a great forehand and decent backhand. Beck has been struggling lately, and is way too reliant on his forehand - especially when struggling and lacking confidence. Early prices around 1.80 were closer to what I'd expect, but at 1.96 I'll jump on it. I know it's his home court btw, but I looked up his history in the tournament and it ain't to great. Last year he was heavily favourited but lost in the first round to Greul in straight sets, he expectadly beat Brands in three sets in the first round of '08, but lost to Schwank in straight sets in round two, and in '07 he lost to Fognini in the first round of qualifying. He's never gotten past the second round at Stuttgart.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

The 1.96 offered on Zeballos @ betfair has to be a massive price, surely? He's shown great progress the last to years, is a solid player on the clay and has a great forehand and decent backhand. Beck has been struggling lately, and is way too reliant on his forehand - especially when struggling and lacking confidence. Early prices around 1.80 were closer to what I'd expect, but at 1.96 I'll jump on it. I know it's his home court btw, but I looked up his history in the tournament and it ain't to great. Last year he was heavily favourited but lost in the first round to Greul in straight sets, he expectadly beat Brands in three sets in the first round of '08, but lost to Schwank in straight sets in round two, and in '07 he lost to Fognini in the first round of qualifying. He's never gotten past the second round at Stuttgart.

Certainly one I've had a look at Jens. Beck opened up at 2.63 and has moved progressively inwards since. That's a huge market movement, and suggests to me something is up (an injury to Zeballos, perhaps, or something more sinister). Beck can play on clay while I see Zeballos as more of a hard court player (got to the final of an indoor event). It's personally one I'm going to stay clear of, although you could make a good case for either man winning.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Yep Zeballos was 1.4 yesterday, was tempted to go with Beck purely for value but not now. He has been horrible for quite a while to be fair and now Zeballos looks tempting. Womens events and challengers look better tomorrow I think.....but I miss the handicaps etc in these mini-tournaments as I'm travelling a distance to work most days......:wall...can't believe I missed Szavay at 8/11 vs Schnyder....was 4/9 when I went to place it!

[Jenspm]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July What are your thoughts on Przyzienzni to beat Robredo @ 5/1? I know Robredo has been struggling with an injury, after retiring to Bolelli in Barcelona. Since then, he's lost to Troicki in straight sets at Roland Garros, Greul in straight sets at Hertogenbosch and finally Luczak in the first round of Wimbledon. Przyzienzni impressively beat Ljubicic in the first round of Wimbledon, and he did reach a clay final on the challenger tour earlier this year.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July

What are your thoughts on Przyzienzni to beat Robredo @ 5/1? I know Robredo has been struggling with an injury' date=' after retiring to Bolelli in Barcelona. Since then, he's lost to Troicki in straight sets at Roland Garros, Greul in straight sets at Hertogenbosch and finally Luczak in the first round of Wimbledon. Przyzienzni impressively beat Ljubicic in the first round of Wimbledon, and he did reach a clay final on the challenger tour earlier this year.

Need to see the handicap on this one. The Pole is a decent enough player but untried against Top 30 players (beat Ljubicic but the Croat has been injured for ages). Robredo's on a woeful run but has won this tournament before and is better on clay than he is on grass. He's going to win sooner or later - need to think about whether this one will be it.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Robredo has a knack of putting in a run when you don't expect.....tend to avoid him alot. The Pole is too big at 5/1 though i'm not sure how much to read into his win at Wimby over Ljubo....not good on grass, return not as good and maybe some injury problems there. Pole too big but wouldn't bat an eyelid if Robredo won 6-2 6-2. I like Lapushchenkova to win a set off Dulko @ Evens (WillHill/Skybet) in Prague tomorrow.Dulko coming off final loss in Bastad to Rezai at the weekend/winning doubles with Pennetta plus no points to defend in Prague, Lapushchenkova is talented and reached semi in Stuttgart a while back and then lost to Nara in French qualies. Solid on the ground off both wings, serve not great but neither Dulko's. Worth a unit I think.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 July Hopefully I see some handicaps and lines in the morning.:(