Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Aykay1]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Well done Monte :ok I think you were being too hard on yourself anyway. You're technique of long priced selections will always invite the odd losing run and looking at the figures , you're not in too bad shape. You just need a couple to come in and you're flying again :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Cheers mate. Just trying to jinx myself into a return to form. :lol 3:40 Ripon - Prince Of Dance - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) I'm going to take another chance on Tom Tate managing to bring Prince Of Dance back to form, as this one-time 108 rated 5 year old has a lot of talent, and shaped as if he retained enough of his ability when finishing 6th of 20 over C&D last time out. That was off a 2lb higher mark, and he was poorly drawn to attack that day, plus the fact that he only faces 10 rivals today could be another positive. Whilst it wasn't an awe-inspiring run by any means, it was a big step up on his first 2 outings for this yard, in which he was a long way off the pace. As a 3 year old (unraced at 2), Prince Of Dance was unbeaten for Tom Dascombe, winning a maiden in very taking fashion, before landing a 15 runner handicap (quite cosily) off a mark of 94 on just his second career outing, which is no easy task. Connections then stepped him up to Listed level, where he showed an exceptional attitude to hold off previous Group 2 winner Shaweel and future Group 3 winner Bushman, all despite pulling like a train in the opening stages. The common link between his winning performances is ground that isn't too quick, and with rain a possibility on the already watered ground, conditions may be suitable enough for this gelding. It won't be any worse than good, but off this mark, he's surely capable of getting involved. Last time out, Prince Of Dance finished 6¼ lengths off the pace (in 6th), with the first two re-opposing here. He's now 4lbs better off with David Barron's (formerly of Tom Tate) Suits Me (2nd) and 9lbs better with the winner of the race, Dandy Nicholls' vastly improved Snow Bay. The weight differential alone would entitle my selection to finish a lot closer to that pairing, but with the ground being very lively that day, and the early pace being quite sedate, I don't think Prince Of Dance has optimum conditions. Today, he should get a good pace to run at, and slower ground, so the fact that he's double the price of those re-opposing is quite appealing to me. There's a few other good animals to contend with today, but I still feel 14/1 is underestimating this horses chances of getting into the money. He showed signs of re-finding that previously impressive attitude last time out, as despite being niggled when the race began to turn into a sprint, Graham Gibbons' mount kept going all the way to the line, with a lack of a rapid turn of foot being his downfall. With a stronger pace to run at, he may not need such an instant reaction to the tempo quickening, plus the ground should certainly help. Prince Of Dance could easily bounce back to his old self, but there was some money about for him last time out and Tate was previously confident of helping the animal get back to his former glory, as he really struggled as a 4 year old (Dascombe's yard were going through a terrible time of it). His trainer, Tom Tate, has an exceptional record around Ripon, with a 24% strike-rate from 102 runners and a 120% ROI. He also rarely books Graham Gibbons, who is one of the top jockeys at this course. He's one of my favourite jockeys and has ridden this fellow on a couple of occasions, including last time out, so hopefully it's third time lucky for this partnership. This should prove to be a tough contest to win, with the progressive Lord Aeryn and Luca Cumani's potential improver Saint Pierre lining up, but I feel Tom Tate's charge is worth taking a small each-way chance on. If the heavens opened, 5/1 would be a fair price about him. As it stands, I thought he'd be around 8/1, so 14's are certainly acceptable. With the pace being strong, fitness likely to have improved, a better effort last time out and a positive jockey booking, Prince Of Dance, a previous Group 1 competitor, could get involved in the shake-up. He's a better animal than his rating suggests, and he'll bounce back to form at some stage this year, hopefully today.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Very disappointing effort from Prince Of Dance. He was beaten a long way out, but was well-supported before the off, so it seems that he was fancied to run a lot better than that. I still think he's worth pursuing for a while yet and it'll be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to that run. He should get another few lbs off the back, which pretty much assures that I'll have a few quid on next time out too. -2pts on Tuesday. 3:15 Ayr - Duchess Dora - 3pts @ 4/1 (WillHill) Interesting handicap here, with claims there to be made for the majority of the field if you delve deep enough. However, I'm going to side with Duchess Dora again, who I've backed on both of her previous outings this year. She looks exceptionally well-handicapped on her best form and can take advantage of some leniency from the handicapper, who now has her rated a full 9lbs lower than her handicap success first time out last season. She's was bred to be a good 2 year old, and that she was, landing a maiden and 2 nurseries off marks of 80 & 87. She disappointed at Listed level next twice, with valid excuses for the second run (non-stayer over 6, but had held every chance). Her handicap mark of 93 looked to make things tough for her on her opening run as a 3 year old, but this attractive looking filly defied odds of 14/1 to finish a short head in-front of Fratellino, who's a very talented colt, last seen finishing 2nd in a big 24 runner handicap at Newmarket (off 90). My selection traveled so well over the minimum trip at Beverley (where she goes well) that day and cruised into contention just over a furlong from home, but she hit the front a bit too early and began to idle, giving the second placed horse a chance to come back into contention. However, she held on in a very game fashion and let the then 5lb claimer, Ian Brennan, off the hook for failing to hold on to her for longer, even though it wasn't a bad ride but she had shown similar tendencies before. Duchess Dora failed to get her head in-front throughout the rest of her 3 year old campaign, but she still ran some very good races and her next 5 races consisted of form reading ; 4-3-4-4-3, never beaten further than 2¼ lengths, including a tilt at Listed level, where she pulled too hard early on but still managed a staying-on 1¼l 4th. She had 4 more starts from September onwards, but disappointed in all bar one and that was on her return to an unconventional track. She has run well here in the past when rated 9lbs higher and I see no obvious reason why she can't improve on her 3rd placed effort that day, even though some of the opposition are better than what she faced then. The ground today is interesting, as she's done most of her racing on good or better, but has a couple of decent soft ground efforts to her name, including over C&D. It'll be fairly testing today, but she should handle it without problem. Duchess Dora was a well-backed 7/1 shot (from 16's) in a 17 runner race (had poor draw) at her beloved Beverley on seasonal reappearance. She traveled strongly but got hampered in the run-in, which led to Paul Hanagan giving her an easy time of it inside the closing stages, as she couldn't of won anyways. That run was expected to bring her on a fair bit and she was, once again, heavily backed last time out over the minimum trip at York. I also picked her out that day, and possibly jinxed her in the process! The draw wasn't overly kind and she got too much daylight on the outside of the field, but stuck to the task fairly well to come home in 6th place. Those drawn quite low did not fare well that day and she was well ahead of anything from the lower third of the draw. With those 2 runs, she should be spot on fitness wise, although given the amount of money last twice, I don't think there could be any worry with that anyways. Her connections certainly like a punt, and hopefully they'll be after monies lost here, as although her price isn't huge by any means, it's quite a bit bigger than I thought would be fair. I'd mark her down as a 2/1 shot here (possibly worthy of being shorter), as I don't think there's a rival who would hold a candle to her if she's in tip-top form and handles conditions. John Quinn seems to have his yard in decent order, and despite a relatively quiet period in April, he's had 2 winners from his last 8 runners, with another 2 finishing in the places too. The yard make a 430 mile round trip to run Duchess Dora here, and this is their only runner at the meeting, with 4 others heading to Beverley (which is a lot closer to home). It could be significant or it could mean nothing, but Quinn doesn't venture this far north too often, and from 12 runners here last year, he had 3 winners and 6 places, with the other trio also hitting the frame (4th's and a 5th). His C&D record is 5 wins (23% SR) and 4 places from just 22 runners, with a 109% ROI. Paul Hanagan, who takes the reins for the second time on this animal, is the top jockey around Ayr, and he's sure to prove a plus to this speedy filly. His record when riding Quinn's sprinters over the minimum trip is quite impressive, with 20% of his 54 rides winning and the ROI being 72%. It's clearly a combination to take note of, even though it's not overly significant. Duchess Dora will have form to turn around with Judge 'N Jury from their meeting at York last time out. They're currently battling it out for favouritism here today, but Ronald Harris' charge is winless since July of '09. He's clearly a tough horse to win with nowadays, having previously won no fewer than 7 times in 2007. He should enjoy conditions here today, and the track, but I feel he'll be very vulnerable towards the head of affairs. I think the form can be overturned, as my selection didn't have things to suit last time out and does so here. 7/2 for Judge 'N Jury is skinny, and although he has fairly solid claims, I'd much rather take his battle-hardened 7 year old legs on with a younger horse. Strike Up The Band is another aging animal who hasn't landed the spoils since August of '08, and 5/1 looks too short despite a good run last time out. He's 4lbs higher for that recent 2nd at Thirsk, and although conditions suit him too, he ran awful here over C&D last year. La Toreador has no issues with winning, but he's up 5lbs for beating the previously mentioned horse at Thirsk, and with most of his best form being on a sound surface, I couldn't have him. The Nifty Fox looks interesting in headgear and gets his ground today, but despite having won around here in '07, he seems better suited to the more unconventional track. His yard are out of form too. A few others could be given a squeak, but Duchess Dora is ready to win again and I'll take a medium sized chance on her doing so. She's got talent, should handle conditions, travels well, loves running off a strong pace (gets that here) and represents an interesting trainer/jockey combination. There's no reason why she shouldn't go well and 4/1 is too big. I'm very, very, very tempted to put maximum stakes on this one, but I'll play it cautiously for once, as John Quinn is a hard man to predict. However, he has a filly who seems ready to hit form, and she's capable of putting a winning streak together (given this lowly mark and how good I think she is) if she could get her head in-front. Hopefully she will. That's my only bet today.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Duchess Dora was supported again in her bid to get off the mark at the third attempt this season. However, things didn't work out for her and a close up 3rd place was all she could muster. It was a fine effort in a race where coming off the pace suited (DD was ridden handy), and she's sure to make her presence felt again soon. It's quite possible that she paid for racing a bit freely in the opening stages but she stuck to her task well and held every chance coming into the final furlong, but it wasn't enough as 2 runners came from off the pace to swamp her. She'll be interesting again next time out. -3pts on the day. I'm busy-busy getting things sorted out before I head off to England on Friday afternoon so the following write-ups will be shorter than usual. There's also a fair chance that I won't be posting anything (thank God says you!) for Friday, Saturday or Sunday, as I'll be track-side at Haydock! Can't wait. :nana Just the two today. 3:20 Ayr - Dasho - 2pts @ 11/1 (WillHill) The market is finding it tough to split the leading trio here, with them all priced at 5/2. However, Dasho looks worth another try over this trip given his undoubted promise last time out. He's bred for further and switched to sprinting for the first time when tackling decent classified stakes at Haydock, in which he finished 4th. The 3 horses ahead of him do look quite decent and it was encouraging to see him rattling home despite meeting trouble in running from one of Jamie Spencer's "what am I doing?" rides. With a clear run, he would of placed at least, with a clear run and a stronger early pace, I'm sure he'd of troubled the potentially very decent winner. He does have quite a bit of early speed, but waiting tactics seemed to suit and I'm hoping they're used again here. The pace is likely to be better and Dasho now encounters soft ground for the first time, something he shapes as if being suited by. He's from a small yard and I think he's priced up based on that, as they wouldn't be notorious for getting winners. However, this horse looks capable of landing a handicap off this mark of 77 and I've doubts over plenty of the rivals, bar my previous selection Captain Kolo, who will love conditions but I was hoping for 4/1 at least. He's a big horse and only ran 3 days ago, so how he will be after such a short break is questionable, enough so to make 5/2 a price I couldn't take. Mr Optimistic looks like a fast ground horse, as does Thirteen Shivers, so the 5/2 about them isn't appealing either, even though they could win it. None of the others float my boat so I'll have a small/medium win bet on Dasho landing the spoils, as he's clearly talented and has a jockey on board that I'm quite fond of. The track should also be right up his street and the yard make an 800 mile round trip from Epsom to run just 2 horses. They had a decent 4th place from their only runner here yesterday. Hopefully this son of Dubawi (a sire I've loads of time for) will run well. 6:00 Sandown - Rock The Stars - 3pts @ 6/1 (VC) Disappointed as favourite last time out but Rock The Stars has more than enough to like about him in a contest like this and I expect a much better performance here. It's quite possible that Ffos Las just wasn't exactly to his liking (steady early gallop no help either) and the return to a place like Sandown is taken to help him get off the mark for the first time since landing his opening 2 handicaps in June last year. Both of those wins were over a mile, the latter being at a similarly testing track, and although todays trip is 2f longer, he has placed on 4 of his 6 attempts at this trip, staying on well nearly every time. It's his first visit to Sandown, but the uphill finish will definitely help him and with the strong handling of Ryan Moore, I think he's going to get involved in the finish here. The John Hills yard haven't had too many winners of late, but their runners seem in decent order and with Rock The Stars having 2 recent runs under his belt, he's sure to be in good order here. The booking of Ryan Moore is most certainly a positive one, and he has yielded good results for them in the past, with 7 wins and 12 places from just 44 rides on the flat (16% SR, 49% ROI). It seems to be a sign of intent and the horse was well-supported last time out, so he's bound to be showing something good at home. The pace isn't assured, and the horse would like a good gallop to be at his best, but the price makes up for that (and he has run well in muddling races before). I think he has enough good form to be around the 3/1 mark, with his recent outing being the only reason he's so big this time around. The ground is grand, the track is perfect, the jockey booking is strong and the opposition don't look to be anything insurmountable. The current favourite is the only horse I'd be very worried about, as he looked quite decent last time out. However, he has a 7lb rise in the weights to contend with and strays away from the track where he goes best, so I'll avoid at the prices. Rock The Stars is worth taking a chance on and I'll play medium stakes on him doing the business. I don't expect 6's to be about for too long.

[Itachi1]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Thanks for your posts monte :D

[Haystacks]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Nice one with Rock The Stars, Monte - good to see you back in form!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Cheers lads, makes a nice change! :ok ------------------------ Dasho was well supported in his bid to get off the mark over sprint trips, eventually halving in price to go off at 11/2. A combination of pulling much too hard and racing into the wind didn't help matters. He faded fairly tamely having been still in the mix just over a furlong from home. Disappointing but he should be a good price next time out, so I won't be giving up just yet. Into the notebook he goes. The favourite was very disappointing and I would of backed him if it wasn't for the short gap between races. Dodged a bullet there but ran into another one anyways. Rock The Stars finally came good over 1m 2f, and was a well-backed 7/2 favourite. I was full sure that he was going to be beaten when he came under pressure (with many more going far better) but the steep uphill finish brought out the best in him, and he won by 4½ lengths, going away at the finish. There's more races to be won with him and surely a step up in trip wouldn't go astray, especially if it was around this course again. Great ride by Ryan Moore (as all winning rides are!) and a tidy return from my 3pt @ 6/1 bet. Hopefully there's more of them to come. +16.00pts on the day. That's the first really profitable day I've had this flat season and brings the overall loss back to just 5pts (It's 40pts at SP!). Things will hopefully pick up now and there'll be less losers posted!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Optimisim. Backing Watch Amigo (1pt e/w, 16/1 with Hills) in the 4:05 at Newmarket, but no time to give much reasoning. Quick run down - Ground likely to be ideal, he's 3/6 over trip, Swinburn yard in cracking form (6/28 last fortnight), interesting booking of Kieren Fallon for only second time ever, likely to improve (fitness wise) for recent AW run, dropping back to ideal trip after 3 failed attempts over a mile, suited by stiff 7 furlongs, lightly raced having only had 10 starts, looked highly progressive previous to being stepped up in trip, should get ran run to suit and has plenty of form to assume that 85 is not an insurmountable task. This is a tough race but there's no doubting that he's capable of landing a class 3 event, especially in a race where he should get plenty of cover. He's got a decent cruising speed, finds for pressure and has a nice turn of foot. Pretty much everything that you want in a big field handicap. Has run well at the track over a mile too, although that stretched him, so 7f here should be ideal. He's worth a small e/w bet. I'll be back on Sunday. Doubt I'll have any net access over the weekend. :beer

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Back in action now. Watch Amigo was subject to a big gamble on Friday, eventually going off at 5/1 having been 16's the night before. He disappointed and never got involved (9th in the end) but remains one to keep on the right side of. Connections clearly think a mark in the mid-eighties is not beyond him and so do I, so it'll be interesting to see where he goes next time out. Hopefully he'll be a decent price though. 3:15 Leicester - Azameera - 2pts @ 7/1 (Bet365) Clive Cox has a potentially very decent filly in the form of Azameera, who is sure to be better than her current rating of 78. However, she's had her problems since landing a hot-maiden at Salisbury last September, in which 7 of the other 16 runners have won since. I wouldn't be too keen on maiden form at all but the way she won it was in the style of a very nice horse and she's had excuses on her subsequent 2 runs, so she looks to be one to keep on the right side of for the moment. That debut win was over 7f at Salisbury, where this 65,000gns purchase defied odds of 33/1 to run out a comfortable 1¼ length winner, beating John Gosden's very well-bred Aneedah, who is now a 97 rated filly. That was a race run at a modest gallop and racing handy paid dividends. Adam Kirby (on board again today) had his mount well positioned throughout and was niggling away at her a few furlongs out, but when push came to shove, she responded in the manner of a very nice filly and found plenty for pressure, before going away in the closing stages. It may have been that the race turning into a sprint flattered her a lot, but connections think she's on a workable mark now and that once she sorts some mental flaws, she could be quite useful. Azameera ran a couple of weeks after her maiden success, this time in a hot 2 year old nursery off this mark. She was well-supported in an attempt to make it 2 from 2, eventually going off as the 9/4 joint-favourite. Things didn't go her way and she missed the break before reportedly hanging left throughout. However, she returned home from Newmarket with a sore shoulder and that's probably the reason why she underperformed by a long way. A long break was then declared the order of the day and she didn't return to the racetrack until a couple of weeks ago. Yet again, Azameera was backed in an attempt to win a handicap, but there proved to be a few chinks in her armour and she faded into a 6½ length 7th of 11, having pulled hard early on and raced alone in the straight. 2f from home, she looked to hold every chance (hit 2.66 IR) but found very little afterwards, possibly down to racing so free beforehand. With the early pace likely to be better here, and the track being more to her liking, I think we could see the real abilities of a filly that I expect to be capable of defying a mark in the mid-eighties before too long. She will have to grow up a fair bit though, but Clive Cox is a very good trainer and will eventually unlock the key. 3 horses (5th, 8th & 9th) have come out of that race and run recently, 2 of which have won. It's quite possible that given how things went in that race, the winners could keep coming out of those who failed to land a blow, and I'm hoping that trend will continue, although there's so much more to it. Azameera should get further in time, but looks more than capable of getting involved here if the cards fall her way. The pace should be good, the ground is likely to be suitable, the track is too her liking and the race is by no means too hot to handle. Her trainer and jockey are in good form and Azameera is likely to strip fitter for that recent outing at Haydock. I don't think that was her true running at all and it's interesting that she's back out again just 12 days later. There are plenty of potential dangers and even some who are similarly unexposed, but this filly is filled with potential talent and looks a very backable price at 7/1. Small/medium win bet for me and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go off a fair bit shorter than she is now, but I don't like backing fillies against the boys, so it's a more tentative (stake-wise) selection than it would be if she was against her own sex. There also seems to be plenty of overnight money for Ian Williams' handicap debutant Mr Dream Maker, who was 10's earlier with one firm and is now 7/2. That's a potentially interesting horse in his own right but I've missed the boat and think he's way too short now. Clive Cox's filly is the one to side with here and she's got plenty more to give in this sphere.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 4:45 Leicester - Equuleus Pictor - 3pts @ 13/2 (Boylesports) This is likely to be very fast & furious and should help set things up for the often fast-finishing Equuleus Pictor. Whilst he doesn't win as often as he should, and is getting on in years, this 7 year old retains plenty of the his ability that saw him peak at 89 just under 2 years ago. That's a long time in racing but he's now running off a mark of 71 on the back of a couple of very encouraging efforts in races where things were against him. Today, there is plenty in his favour and his very long losing run can come to an end, at the 25th attempt (my lucky number!). Equuleus Pictor only has one fairly significant problem here and that's the fact that all of his 6 career wins have been gained with cut in the ground, but that's according to the Racing Post. Timeform have the ground listed as "good" for 2 of his wins, so who's right is anyones guess. His 2 runs this year were on GF and he ran well both times, so with todays ground unlikely to be as fast, it may not be such a problem. The most recent effort, over 6f at Windsor, was very encouraging as he showed a good attitude to keep battling all the way to the line despite being beaten. 6f on fast ground is not one bit ideal, but the drop back to 5f on the back of a rapid gallop at a stiff track may be (not 100% sure the track is ideal), and I think this fellow could end his long losing streak under the expert handling of Cathy Gannon, who has ridden him last twice. The John Spearing yard are yet to hit any sort of a gear yet, having failed to get a winner from any of his 23 runners on the flat this year. However, with many shaping as if in need of the run, Equuleus Pictor is sure to be nearing peak fitness. He's had another 43 days since his last run, but he's needed a warm up in the past and should be spot on now. He's well handicapped, well suited by the return to 5 furlongs and should love having a fast pace to run at, with Verinco, Cape Royal and many more capable of setting blistering fractions from the get-go. Leicester is not a track sure to suit him though and it is a risk, but I consider the price much too big, therefore making it a risk worth taking. More rain is also a possibility and if the heavens opened, I'll be left with 13/2 about a horse who should be around the 2/1 mark. Cathy Gannon rides the track exceptionally well and John Spearing has a decent record around here. He's also a very good trainer of sprinters and will have this fellow back in the winners enclosure before too long. This is an open contest, but I think the price is much too generous and I'll take a chance on this speedy 7 year old gaining career win number 7. Medium stakes as I think he should be the favourite.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 3:30 Redcar - Antoniola - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365) Out of form and looking out of any ability, but Antoniola has the ability to go close here if on a going day. Tim Easterby's 4 year old gelding has proved to be disappointing in the main and hasn't won since his juvenile days, but he ran a few good races as a 3 year old off much higher marks. He's been very disappointing so far this year, having failed to land a blow on all 4 of his outings and being unable to finish within 12 lengths of the winner in any of them. However, Easterby's runners who seem out of form have a tendency to bounce back at some stage, and with the eye-shield/blinker combination on for the third time in a row, it may have the desired effect (or something could be planned!). I quite like backing horses after they've had a couple of runs in a new piece of headgear and it wouldn't be the first time that a horse has taken a couple of runs to see it take full effect. Antoniola ran one of his best races last year when having a tongue-tie on for the third ever time and he was also very well-backed on that occasion. Graham Gibbons was the man to ride him that day, but they could only manage a 2nd place to Parvaaz, then rated 76 and last seen running off 93. Gibbons is a top-notch jockey (rides well here too) and had 2 winners from 3 rides at this course yesterday, including one for this yard. He comes to Redcar today for just this ride (yard has plenty of other runners here) and is still the only jockey to win on this tricky horse, so I wouldn't be surprised if today was the day for Antoniola. Conditions are grand for the horse, the step back in trip should help and he's ideally suited to flat, galloping tracks. He's absolutely thrown in here if coming back into any sort of form and 18/1 looks huge. There's some decent animals in opposition here but nothing spectacular and a run matching a couple of his efforts last year would see this horse go very close. The yard being in horrific form of late would be a worry, but with 4 runs under his belt, the horse should be fit and capable of getting involved, especially at a track where he's run well before (on only visit). Mr Emirati was another who interested me at big prices. I'll play small each-way stakes on the Easterby/Gibbons combination providing another winner here at Redcar. There was also some support for this horse last time out and he looked in with a chance at one stage, before weakening and Hamilton, a track that I don't think suits. The return to Redcar could do the trick, and if it does, I'll be very, very happy! 18/1 is a huge price in my opinion, even though the horse has his quirks and there's plenty of risk in backing him, but for small stakes, the return could be a nice one if things pan out in his favour. Hopefully they do.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

3:30 Redcar - Antoniola - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)

The 6/4 favourite's out so I'm having another 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) He may well run another shocker but this price is absolutely massive IMO. He's more than capable of bouncing back to form.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

3:15 Leicester - Azameera - 2pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Copyright. Expect contact from my lawyers.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. :dude

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. In all seriousness, I fancy her a lot today. I know I did last time, but she ran well enough to say Kirby was braindead that day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Holy moly 3/1! It was 7s about half an hour ago!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Get in :nana Well done mate :clap:cheers

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. What a beautiful lady! :notworthy Well done mate. Got more confident after reading your post.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Well done Monte :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. A cracking start to the day when Azameera justified strong, late support to land the handicap off a mark of 78. It's clear as day that she's going to make it into a nice filly and she done it in fine style, running on late having been ridden to lead well inside the final furlong. She was a bit keen early on and didn't break overly well, but responded well to pressure once popped the question. It probably wasn't the best of races but I also think it wasn't run fully to suit, so she'll be more than capable of going on to compete at a higher level when things are in her favour even more (stronger gallop, faster ground). She also gives the impression that she'll be better over further, although she's got plenty of speed too. It'll be interesting to see how she develops throughout the year. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I'm kicking myself that she was my smallest stakes bet on the day, as I really did fancy her chances quite strongly. 7/1 was a nice price though. Antoniola was another selection from the Easterby yard, who just aren't firing like they can. He was nibbled at (16's into 11/1) in an attempt to recapture some form but ran a quite poor race in the end, fading quite tamely. I've no idea whether I'll stick with him next time or not, but he's so well-handicapped that I'll find it hard to pass over him if the race is suitable. The other one I liked, Mr Emirati (33/1), ran an eye-catching race to stay on late and he may not be too far away from finding his way again. He could be worth keeping an eye on too. Equuleus Pictor was the strongest of my two wins bets and was also fairly well supported, eventually going off at 9/2. The ground was probably a bit lively but having initially looked like he wasn't going to get involved (was losing ground up the hill), Cathy Gannon helped him find full stride and he began to hit top gear on the level. However, the winners rider, Leonna Mayor switched her mount to the right and plowed into my selection, ruining any chance he had (was snatched up, lost valuable momentum). If it hadn't of been for that, I reckon I'd of been on the winner and Six Wives would of been the unlucky horse of the race as he wouldn't of got a run through if it wasn't for nailing Gannon's mount. That's how it goes though and sometimes they work in your favour, just didn't work today. I'll be interested in EP once he goes back to either York or Windsor, as he's going to win again soon. +7.00pts on the day, which is another step in the right direction. Loss for the season is at 0.74pts at the moment, so I'm nearly there. Hopefully there's another couple of winners to come. 4:50 Nottingham - Submission - 3pts @ 3/1 (WillHill) This should be a very decent Fillies' Handicap, but Luca Cumani's Submission looks to me as if she's another potential Group performer running off a lowly handicap mark. This 79 rated filly is likely to excel over further, at least that's what breeding would suggest. However, Luca Cumani says that a lot of her sire's offspring can be overly keen and are often deceptive in how far they'll actually stay, so running her over a mile seems the logical step, for the moment at least. Given that she has a high cruising speed, the distance will be no problem at all, especially if she settles (can take a pull). Interestingly, she still holds an entry in the Group 2 Ribblesdale over 1m 4f at Royal Ascot in a couple of weeks, so connections obviously think a lot of her, and I do to. I'd just be surprised if she'd relax over such a trip but if she goes for it (will probably have to win well here), the price is likely to negate the risks involved and I'll probably be a backer. Ascot is the type of track she'd love. As a juvenile, Submission ran well on her opening couple of career starts, the first being a 2nd place over 7f at Lingfield, in a race where she was an un-fancied 40/1 shot. The form of that race is worthless, but she showed a good attitude to finish where she did, having initially raced very free and was outpaced before staying on again. Lingfield was never going to show her in a great light anyways, so it was a most encouraging effort. She reappeared just under a fortnight later, this time at Kempton (7f, Fallon on board) and this time she was fancied, eventually going off as the 7/4 favourite in a 12 runner field. The race looked more competitive than the last one, but yet again, the form is completely worthless. However, she won it as easily as you like and was 5 lengths clear inside the final furlong without being asked a question (pushed out). A fast-finishing animal reduced the deficit to 1¾ lengths in the end, but she could of won by any distance. It was visually impressive, as she traveled notably well throughout and quickened away with ease. The long straight suited her and she's got a similar finish here today, at a track that is likely to be ideal. Next time out, in the middle of October, connections stepped her up in class, this time at Newmarket in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. 8th of 10 was her finishing position in the end, but that did not tell the whole story, as Submission was unlucky in running (didn't get a clear run) and got shuffled to the rear before losing her action coming into the dip. She also raced quite keenly and didn't look one bit at home on the track. I'm also convinced that she is a fast ground horse, so the cut in the ground may not have been ideal. Fallon didn't go hard on her once she was beaten and she also seems to be bred to improve at 3, so that run is quite easily forgiven. This horse is clearly full of potential and has plenty of ability as it stands, so I think she'll be making up for her only failing at Group level before too long, which obviously makes her at very attractive proposition running in a handicap off 79. Submission didn't run again until 4 weeks ago, where she lined up over a mile at Goodwood, a track where I expected to see her swept off her feet. However, connections (or someone!) didn't think that and plowed into her inside the final few minutes of betting, as she was backed from a high of 16's into 6/1 just before the off. Good things were obviously expected in what was a fairly weak race (bar the winner) and once again, luck in-running was nowhere to be found for this animal. She was denied a clear run on a number of occasions, not least 2f out when JP Guillambert went searching for a gap. It just wouldn't come and a mid-division finish looked likely, but once it did come, very late on, she flew to lose out on 3rd place by a narrow margin under the most tender of rides. She wasn't tapped with the whip at all and was just pushed out hands and heels, which Luca Cumani has declared wasn't "the best of rides". The winner of that race, Beatrice Aurore, would probably of won regardless, but my selection for todays race would of gave her a bit of a scare if she got through. That animal has since won a Listed contest with relative ease and is quietly fancied for the Epsom Oaks this weekend. The rest of the animals may not be up to much, but Submission would of given the winner a good run for her money and that gives her huge claims here, especially as she's running at a more conventional track this time around. The ground should be no problem, they'll go a decent clip up front and if she settles, I find it hard to see anything here capable of beating her. Kieren Fallon comes to Nottingham for just 2 rides, the other is an old selection of mine who finds winning nearly impossible and wouldn't have much hope today in my opinion. Submission is his best hope of a winner and also Luca Cumani's only runner of the day, at a track where he doesn't use Fallon too often. The pair have a fine record and can enhance it here with a potentially very nice type. She's also a mighty fine looking animal and still has plenty of scope for improvement. There's a couple of similarly lightly-raced dangers here, notably Manaaber, so I'm going to play it cautiously and have a medium sized bet. 3/1 is a brilliant price, even though it's at the low-end of what I'm willing to play, but I think she should be around half that, at the very least. I wouldn't be shocked to see her perform badly, as she obviously has some quirks, but with some luck and things being run to suit, she'll be on the scene and hopefully finishing strongly at a course that should be made for her. Fingers crossed that she'll go well.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 8:10 Ripon - Addictive Dream - 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 (WillHill) Getting fairly tired so I'll keep this brief enough. With the pace likely to be strong, Addictive Dream could finally do what he's been threatening to do of late and land a decent handicap. Sent off as favourite in 2 strong sprints so far this season, Walter Swinburn's 4 year old gelding is clearly well thought of and expected to be capable of defying a mark of 91. He still holds an entry in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race in which I don't think he'd be out of place. For the moment, I think this 17 runner handicap at a track like Ripon is likely to be well within his capabilities and I think he should be the favourite here, although it's probable that he will be come the off. Addictive Dream made his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood over 5 furlongs, in which he produced a career best effort in finishing a ¾ length 2nd to Humidor, who is a very good horse in his own right. They went hell for leather up-front that day and the time was nearly enough to break the track record, so the ground was possibly plenty lively enough for Walter Swinburn's charge. He held every chance of winning, but tended to look awkward under pressure and just couldn't go past the winner when upsides. It looked as if he'd be fully entitled to come on for the run and connections turned him out a couple of weeks later at Newbury, this time over 6f and under an extra 4lb rise in the weights. That was a class 2 contest, which represented a step up in class for the lightly-raced Addictive Dream, but connections got stuck in again and he was sent off as the 9/2 favourite in the 18 strong field. They didn't go overly quick early and I don't think Newbury fully plays to his strengths, so to finish off his race well to come a 3 length 4th wasn't a half-bad effort at all. The Walter Swinburn yard are flying of late, with 7 winners from their last 27 runners and show a +£36 LSP in that 2 week period. They make a fairly long 400 mile round trip to run Addictive Dream, their only runner at the track. They've only ever had 14 runners here, which has resulted in 2 winners and 3 places. Jamie Spencer is the man entrusted with the steering and he's a very interesting booking for the yard, as he's only done so on 31 occasions for them, resulting in 5 wins and 9 places. He's riding well of late but has an exceptional record here, with 18 wins (23% SR, 23% ROI) and 21 places from just 79 rides. He has a couple of other good chances on the day, but I think this could be one of his best hopes of a winner and very much doubt that Swinburn is making the trek down to Ripon for nothing. Addictive Dream is suited to the track, the trip, the ground and this represents a drop in class too. There's a fair bit more to come from this lightly-raced 4 year old (9 career runs) and I'm sure he's overpriced at 7/1, although it is a tough enough race. Things should be run more favourably today and the ground won't be as lively as has been the case last twice. He's a nice horse and more than capable of getting involved, so I'll play smallish each-way stakes on him doing so. 4 places being paid if no more than one runner drops out.

[RussP]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Loss for the season is at 0.74pts at the moment' date=' so I'm nearly there.[/quote'] .....and there you go:clap:clap Great call with Submission.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Cheers mate, hardly an awe-inspiring selection but beat the price big time, even with the 20p R4. :) Just need to keep banging in some winners now, and I'll be happy. :clap

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. :clap in profit now monte for season,hope winners start flying in:nana

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. That's more like it! :clap Still plenty more to come from Addictive Dream. Will be interesting to see where he goes next. :D

[stewartd14]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Watch out - he's back !! :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Cheers mate. :ok I certainly hope so. :hope ----------------------------------------------------- Everything that could go wrong for Submission went wrong. She was trapped 4 or 5 wide with no cover for the majority of the race, got very lit up and didn't handle all the turns at all. However, her class shone through and she showed a cracking attitude to hold on from the fast finishing second place. I'm still actually surprised that she managed to win and this is only the beginning, because once she comes into her own mentally, she'll be a very exciting talent. I'd imagine she'll be Listed level at least and has the cruising speed to contest good mile contests, although she could possibly excel over further if she learns to settle. Connections obviously fancied her as she was smashed in the betting, eventually going off at 11/10. 3/1 was a great price, even with the 20p R4. Great performance to win and she's one to stick into the notebook. Addictive Dream was next up and he was also smashed in the betting, eventually going off as the 4/1 joint-favourite. I thought he had a fairly good chance of getting involved anyways, but he went on to win in the style of a horse who's well up to winning more races. Jamie Spencer brought him over to the far side, where a smaller group of 6 raced. They sat in behind the pace, made a move to lead at halfway, then scooted clear of that group before gaining the overall advantage with 1½ furlongs to go. The runners on the other side, despite obviously being favoured, couldn't get close to him and he won by a handy 2 lengths. I thought Spencer rode a very good race but he was clearly on a very talented animal, who won his second ever handicap, off a mark a full 14lbs higher than his last. This horse is still lightly-raced, open to more progression and is in the right hands. Hopefully he'll go on to contest some very good 6f sprints, as he's clearly got the ability and has just put in a career-best effort. Lovely return from a smallish each-way bet at 7/1. +20.32pts on the day. I'm back nicely in profit for the year and will update the stats after Saturdays racing. I had a feeling that June would be good, and there couldn't of been a better start than that. Hopefully it'll continue. 3:40 Hamilton - Berbice - 0.75pts e/w @ 22/1 (WillHill) I can understand why the bookmakers would want to take on Berbice, maybe having him priced at double figures, but to say he's a 22/1 shot here is absolutely madness. Fair enough, he boasts a poor strike-rate, he's ungenuine, he hasn't won for a couple of years, but he does have the form in the book to win this and his price is massive in my opinion. When Linda Perratt's yard hit form, they're certainly worth keeping an eye on, and having failed to have a winner from her opening 52 runners this season, things didn't look very good. However, she had a resurgence the other day at Ayr, where 3 of her 6 runners ended up in the winners enclosure (11/4, 13/2, 15/2). She runs a similar amount of horses today and many of them are worth a look in the market. Not least this one, who is vastly overpriced. Based on Berbice's penultimate start over C&D, he holds every chance of overturning form with the favourite Klynch, who he meets on 18lb better terms for a 2 length beating (Berbice traveled like a dream, but found nothing having taken a keen hold early). My selection got stuffed by Ruth Carr's inmate last time out, but given his often in-and-out profile, it would be no surprise to see him run right back up to scratch. As I say, I can understand why people would want to take this fellow on, but I'm sure that you'll find far worse 22/1 shots out there and if he's bothered today, Berbice could win at a canter. If he's not on a going day, he'll be miles behind and it'll be 1.5 points wasted. It's still a chance worth taking, as everything's in his favour, with regards to ground, track and the likely strong pace. Berbice was once a smart horse for Richard Hannon, rated 107 at his prime (at 2). Like many useful 2 year olds, he struggled to find winnable races at 3 and collapsed 31lbs in the ratings. His only win at 4 came in a poor 7f handicap on the AW and he ran consistently at 5, but also failed to win. This horse has been a huge disappointment in recent years and has even failed to go past runners he was cantering all over, but he's now rated 64 and well below ratings he's been competitive off in recent times. He travels strongly, often too strongly before finding zilch for pressure, but Paul Hanagan is on board for the first time, and there's no better man for coaxing a horse into giving his all. He could be the man to unlock the door on this animal and hopefully he will. I don't expect much from this fellow, but on plenty of his recent form (this & last year), he has to be given a decent chance of making the frame at least. His course form is good, having run well on all 3 starts here and he handles the ground. If things fell the right way, Berbice could look like an odds-on shot. If he doesn't bother, he'll look like a 200/1 shot. The current price negates the risk and I'll have a minimal each-way bet on him. Hanagan's course record is exceptional and if anyone can get this horse to win, it'll be him. It's a poor race but still ultra-competitive, as many of the others could be on a going day too, not least Jobe, who could be thrown in here if recapturing any of his old abilities. However, I'll take a chance on the Perratt/Hanagan combination to come up trumps.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 6:30 Sandown - Fantasy Explorer - 1.50pts e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365) I'm always interested in John Quinn's runners and I feel that Fantasy Explorer should be primed to strike, especially at a track that he's likely to enjoy. This fellow is now in his twilight years, being an 8 year old, but this one-time 91 rated animal showed up well last time out, where he finished an unlucky in running 5th of 8 in a decent contest at his beloved Newmarket. Whilst he wasn't definitely going to go on to win, he was traveling well as they met the rising ground. Luck wasn't on his side, as despite having a gap to go through for a long time, Jimmy Quinn was planning to produce him late. However, he waited for too long and this strong-travelling gelding was squeezed out of contention. He stayed on one paced up the hill but it could of been a lot different and I'll happily put that down as a very encouraging run from a horse (now 2lb lower) who hasn't stood much racing in the past 2 seasons (6 runs since November '09). Fantasy Explorer may not have won for a long time (Oct '09), and it's been even longer since he's tasted success on the turf (Sep '08), but it's clear as day that he retains enough ability to get involved in a Class 4 0-85 Sprint Handicap, especially over 5 furlongs at a track that takes a fair bit of getting (has loads of pace for 5, enough stamina for 6, ideal here). Bar a lot of rain, he gets his preferred genuinely fast ground and he races at a level where he's got an exceptional record (3 wins, 1 second, 8 runs in C4 company). He's placed on 4 of his 7 outings at C3 level, and won once, placed 3 times in 15 C2 contests. Regardless of slight decline, there's no animal in the field today that he's not capable of beating and John Quinn is sure to be able to get this fellow back to winning ways before long. It'll just be a case of getting the right amount of luck at the right time, but this fellow has a good conversion rate having won 6 of his 37 outings, although he's got 8 seconds and 2 thirds to his name also. I think he'll be the most suited to how things pan out and it'll boil down to whether he's in the mood to take advantage or not, but given that he has a very good attitude usually, I see no reason for things to change here. This is the first time that Fantasy Explorer will be tackling the Sandown hill, but John Quinn is making a 460 mile round trip to bring him here, and I feel it's not planned to be a pointless exercise. Quinn comes here with just one runner, to a track where he has had 7 winners and 3 seconds from just 24 runners (29% SR, 86% ROI). Over the flying 5 furlongs at Sandown, Quinn has a 5 winner, 2 seconds record from 13 runners (38% SR, 186% ROI). He certainly knows the time of day and it's quite easy to read his intentions when he makes the long journey from Settrington to Sandown. The booking of Dane O'Neill is an odd one, as he's only ridden for the yard on one occasion, a well-fancied 3rd placed runner on the all-weather. O'Neill is a jockey I've plenty of time for and he's done me many a good favour in the past, so hopefully he proves to be a positive on his first ride aboard this uncomplicated horse. Island Legend, Cape Royal and Taurus Twins should all ensure this is going to be a furiously run race. When the pace, as I expect, gives way as they're coming up the hill, I think that O'Neill will be sitting pretty in behind them, that's what I'm hoping for anyways. His finishing kick seems most effective off a truly run pace and he's 99% sure to get that here, so hopefully it's as potent as the old days. There are dangers who will also thrive on this, but I think Fantasy Explorer should be hard beaten if he can put it all in today. 13/2 is a cracking price and I'd imagine that he'll be well-supported throughout tomorrow and could go off circa 4/1. Medium each-way bet for me, as I'm playing it safe and don't really want to play big stakes on an older horse, who could easily disappoint. He has a great chance though and I'd be very surprised if he didn't run a good race. Conditions are ideal, track should be ideal, strong jockey on board, race run to suit and he's very well-handicapped. Hopefully he'll oblige.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 7:35 Sandown - First Post - 1.25pts e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill) Highly competitive contest but despite being 6lbs above his last winning mark, First Post looks a horse capable of giving more. He disappointed last time out over 1m 2f at Newmarket but didn't look completely at home on that track (pulled hard too). He now returns to the scene of his last win (drops in grade too) and gets partnered with jockey Andrea Atzeni, who has ridden him to a couple of his better career efforts, including that C&D win last August. Atzeni was also on board for the horses penultimate run, in which he finished a 1½ length 3rd of 18 in a hot handicap over a mile at Ascot. I don't think that track is exactly what he wants (although he's run well there twice things happen to quick for him) and on the basis of that form, he holds a cracking chance here if running to a similar level at what seems to be his most effective venue (long run-in, stamina testing hill). First Post is still fairly lightly-raced, having only run on 16 occasions. He's been generally consistent and progressive, with 3 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds. How much more to give is up for debate, but he does give the impression that a mark of 80 at a place like this is not beyond him, although he's a horse who will need things to go to plan. He doesn't exactly have a great turn of foot but gallops all day, which is why I think this track is perfect. The long run-in combined with the stamina testing hill will ensure that, if he's not spent by then, he'll be capable of making up ground on horses who have a superior burst of speed. However, he can lay up off a good pace and seems capable of catching horses when he has a target to aim at. It's more likely that the leaders will have to come back to him and I highly doubt he'll be bursting past anything, but that's why I find his Ascot outing so encouraging, plus the form is rock solid. The form of the Derek Hayden Jones yard would also be a slight worry, as he's only had 2 winners from his 45 runners so far this year. However, he's had a further 6 seconds and 4 thirds, so I may be looking into that a bit too much. His recent 10 runners have been well below form, although none have went off at single figures. Haydn Jones makes a 300 mile round trip to come here with First Post, his only runner of the day, and books Andrea Atzeni again, a man who can get this horse going. The pairing have decent stats from a limited number of rides and Haydn Jones has a decent record here - 3 winners, 7 places from 27 runners (11% SR, 93% ROI). He's a trainer I quite like, although I don't know a whole pile about him, but I've backed winners out of his yard before. He can clearly train well and had a good year last year, so hopefully there'll be another winner coming here today. Being a 17 runner handicap, First Post has dangers surrounding him. However, he drops in grade, drops in trip, returns to a track he loves and gets his favoured fast ground. There's no reason he shouldn't go well and I'll have a small each-way bet on him going close. 4 places paid assuming more than one doesn't drop out.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. So close yet so far, although that wouldn't be a comment applied to Berbice, who disappointed yet again. He pulled hard, cocked his head in the air and didn't get involved, despite being close enough inside the last couple. He's a frustrating horse and won't be carrying my money any time soon. To kick me in the balls even more, my second choice, Jobe, ran out a convincing winner under attacking tactics that I thought would be employed. Can't pick 'em all I suppose. Fantasy Explorer, my strongest bet of the day, ran a creditable race to come a neck second. He was fairly strong in the market and Quinn obviously expected a good run, but it just wasn't good enough. Despite having plenty of front-runners in the field, the pace wasn't exactly as I'd expected, with the winner getting to dictate matters as the wide-drawn front-runners never got up to challenge. This wasn't ideal for my selection and he still managed to come a close up second. A stiff 5 furlongs suits him and he's well handicapped and in good form, so he's worthy of consideration next time out, depending on his price. He traded at 1.52 in-running and despite looking as if he'd go past the winner, he just couldn't find the extra kick to do so. Gallant effort though and a small profit despite a 15p R4. Now for the one who got away - First Post, subject to a late jockey change, proved to be most frustrating as he hung away what looked to be a great chance of victory in the competitive 1m handicap. He was partnered with 5lb claimer Harry Bentley, whom I'm a big fan of but his poor use of the whip cost him. The horse hung all over the place and that's the only reason he lost here in my opinion, as he was only ¾l behind the winner at the end. Bentley hit him a few times on his right, horse went badly left, he put the stick into his left (took a while to do it), hit him to get him back on the right track (which he did), then went at him again with the left and he began to hang that way again. It's not like it was an awful ride or anything, as I'm sure it's not easy to do, but given how the horse responded to bring hit on his right hand side first time, he shouldn't of went at him on the same side after straightening him up. I could be wrong (in terms of the whip use), but that's what cost the horse a victory here. I'll be on again next time he's at this course. Profit from this bet too, but it could of been a lot nicer. +2.19pts on the day. 2:10 Epsom - Hacienda - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) Backing a Mark Johnston trained runner always comes with plenty of risks, but there's no doubting that Hacienda has the ability to bounce back to form, especially around a track that I think he's likely to enjoy. Things haven't went to plan for him since his opening 2 runs this season, as he's dropped away tamely last twice. However, I think he's one for the unconventional tracks and his only exceptionally poor performance, which was last time out, was around the galloping plains of Haydock. Previous to that, he made his comeback over an inadequate 7 furlongs at Thirsk, a race in which he finished a gallant 2nd, staying on well despite never having the pace to trouble the winner. Hacienda was then sent off favourite in a similar contest to this, at Sandown, where he could only manage to come 6th of 15. He was just 2¾ lengths behind Wannabe King, whom he now meets on 7lb better terms, yet the latter is half the price that Johnston's is? The mind boggles, especially as my selection for todays race is much more likely to enjoy Epsom than he did Sandown. I'm not saying he'll win or definitely overturn the form, but the price differential isn't right at all, but that suits me fine. Hacienda was then sent off a 7/2 favourite on his return to Thirsk, this time over a mile, which seemed ideal. However, he disappointed and failed to land a blow in the 15 runner contest, although I'm rarely too inspired when it's Royston Ffrench on board. Thirsk is too flat for him with more of an emphasis on speed, I think the perfect mixture of speed and stamina around Epsom will be too his liking and we could see a much better effort from a 4lb lower mark. There's no doubting this horse is well handicapped and like the majority of Johnston horses, a sudden return to form isn't impossible by any means. The yard do have another runner in the race, the more fancied Tartan Gigha, who I was also interested in at 10/1. He's landed this race for the past 2 years and is also exceptionally well handicapped with excuses for his last few efforts, but I don't want to back him for the simple reason that I think 10's are too short. He's clearly talented but this is a tougher renewal compared to the last couple and I'll avoid, even though he's got a good chance. Hacienda is owned by Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum and when Greg Fairley rides his runners, the stats are positive. They've had 91 winners from 438 runners in the past 5 years, with a 21% strike-rate and a +£20 LSP. Fairley is riding well of late and has won on 3 of his 11 rides around Epsom Downs for Johnston. He comes here for just 2 rides and the other is one I wouldn't give a massive chance to. I think 25's are very generous about Hacienda and he's likely to enjoy how things go here. He's tough, game, stays well and has enough speed to sit in behind what should be a good pace. It's quite possible that he could make the running himself but with a few others potential pacesetters in opposition, I think a prominent tracking position will be the order of the day. If all goes to plan and he doesn't fade away early on, I'd imagine they'll be trying to quicken the tempo early on, as the horse isn't one who's going to show a rapid turn of foot to catch the leaders if the pace shows no signs of giving way. He's nearly assured to stay the trip if ridden correctly and attempting to burn them off early on could pay dividends around here. It's so hard to know what Johnston is planning so I'll just have a small each-way stake on this one, but there's no doubting that he could go close if recapturing his best and being let at it.