diamond1924 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Fiendish Flame still to come, high hopes for this fellow if he can get it all right. Pricewise have picked him though, and they usually jinx me. Bloody nightmare isn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Marsh Warbler ran a cracker to win easily in his Grade 1 contest. Traveled and jumped like a dream then showed a nice turn of foot to scoot clear. He's a high class horse and he'll be a beast on soft ground, but not sure how he'll handle better ground. 1st I'moncloudnine was great I thought, he put in a fair few slow jumps which cost him a lot of momentum. Done well to place I thought. 3rd Midnight Haze was massively punted into 4/1 from the 14's I got. He didn't run well though and was pulled up after hammering a few fences when weakening. Pity. PU Nozic ran a cracker to come 4th. Just doesn't have the toe for 2m 4 nowadays and I'll side with him again if he's out for a slog in the mud. Glad to see him finish for once. 4th Fiendish Flame was sent off the 7/2 favourite (17/2 advised) and was going along nicely before jumping badly at numerous fences. He can't get away with that at this level and I now think he may just be handicapped to the hilt, despite his usual consistency. Hopefully he'll be dropped a few pounds at some stage and I'll be interested in him back at Cheltenham on soft going. I'll probably pass over him until then though. 6th(?) A great start to the day and then a disappointing end but that's racing. Still a nicely profitable Saturday and hopefully I can pick up results again. My 2011 spreadsheet is showing a lot more + signs that it was before anyways! +11.25pts on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Bloody nightmare isn't he? Can't stand it when they do that! :wall That's my excuse anyways. ;) The horse is a bit of a monkey anyways. Seems to jump wonderfully then put in some stupid ones. Might avoid him from now on. I'm still only learning the NH game so still lots more to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) excellent day Monterosso:clap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Cheers twinny, much appreciated. A few more of them and I'll be a happy man. :cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Before the start would've been satisfied with 3rd Imoncloudnine. But as you say, did not jump with his usual fluency, considering how well he jumped at Aintree. Though doubt if he'd have beaten Synchronised. Good pick Nozic, ran best race for some time. I think the trip was fine, travelled well enough, though do woder if will be at his very best with an easy lead. At times seemed to resent being taken on up front. Time to get on may be when there are no other "prominent runners" entered. Well done with Marsh Warbler, :clap slow pace seemed to suit him more than the two favourites. Sam Winner has questions to answer now, my Triumph Hurdle bet does not look so good now.:sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) I'd of been delighted with 3rd too, especially considering I had invested 5 points in total (which is my max), so to get a return was very nice. I thought he traveled like a dream but the momentum lost from some poor jumps cost him getting second and possibly troubling the winner. Ifs and buts. Delighted to see Nozic finish a race but gutted that he could hold on for 3rd. Lovely jumper and he sure did travel well for once, potentially the headgear has him interested again. I'd like to see him given an easy lead too but he'll still be dangerous off this sort of mark if he can kick on for that run. There's still life in him yet. :hope Cheers, I was thrilled with Marsh Warbler and it's great for Ellison to have his first Grade 1 winner. Looks like a special horse imo but may well be too ground dependent and also looks like he needs to plod along from the front, which he wouldn't get doing so easily in a large field. His jumping is sublime though, doesn't look like a 4 race novice at all and his best jump was at the last, stunning altogether. Still destroyed a good field today and the 2nd horse looks like the one to take out from the race. Hopefully it won't be a really skinny price next time it's out. I wouldn't worry about the AP bet. He should still take all the beating in the Triumph imo. Seems to love Cheltenham and probably doesn't want it as soft as it was today either. Plus they went too slow for him to be effective. I actually thought it'd be a very quickly run race but turned out that it worked in my favour by not being one. Happy days! :eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Overall stats: +7.05pts since last update. Bank - 252.82pts (+152.82pts) Bets - 364 Wins - 51 Placed - 95 SR - 14% Staked - 818.5pts Returned - 971.32pts ROI - 19% 2011 Stats: Profit/Loss - +7.05pts Bets - 11 Wins - 1 Placed - 4 SR - 9% Staked - 28pts Returned - 35.05pts ROI - 25% Dancing cow time. :cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Great stuff Monte and congrats on todays winner :clap A credit to ATR :notworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Thanks very much Sir and the same to yourself. Great work to find the winner of the Welsh National. Brilliant stuff. :cheers 2011 could be a great year for ATR. Started nicely anyways. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Nice work today mate, Marsh Warbler was very impressive :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Cheers Danny, he sure was. Pity I didn't put more on him. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. :sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) 2:45 Southwell - Elusive Fame - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365) It may be pure madness to oppose the odds on favourite here but I believe he's vulnerable off this sort of mark and is well worth taking on. My selection for this race is a lively 5 year old from the Mark Johnston stable. He's a 4 time course winner, once over 6f, once over this 7f trip and twice over 1 mile. He has also came 2nd or 3rd here a further 10 times, which is astonishing. This race may pan out to suit a horse who stays further and Elusive Fame fits that bill perfectly having seen out a mile here very well on 2 occasions, the last of which was from a 1lb higher mark and on the back of a slow gallop. He'll get a very quickly run race here, as there are at least 4 horses who could potentially make the running, including the favourite. When Johnston's horse runs at 7f here, his form figures read : 1-2-6-3-2, with the final run in the sequence coming back in August of 2010, in a class 3 contest, off a mark 8lbs higher than he races off today. That race was run at a fierce gallop, something similar to what I think todays could be run at and he only found one in-form horse too good on the day. I really think that Johnston's horses can run well and win on any day, he's just so damn hard to catch but I've had relative success in doing so, having hopped on the bandwagon with many of his horses in the past year. He'll be sure to have this fellow ready again and I fancy they think the drop to 7f in a race of this nature will be absolutely ideal, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood of money for him tomorrow, unless they think the favourite is un-opposable. Elusive Fame has recently been running in similarly strong class 4 handicaps. Running respectably in the main but I was impressed with him last time out, despite being overturned by 4.5l when coming 3rd of 6 runners, behind Follow The Flag, who is a decent type and in good form. That race was over a mile and they went a very good clip, eventually setting it up for the top 2 who came from off the pace. My selection faired best of the prominent racers and looked the likely winner at one stage, trading at 1.20 and slipping the field just over a furlong from home. However, his rank emptied quite quickly as the effort used to take up the running possibly took it all out of him and he was headed inside the final furlong when failing to match the runs of the 2 who finished in front. It was a good run all in all and one I feel would suffice in this race to at least guarantee a top 3 position, with victory also possible. He traveled like a dream in that race and I really believe he's at his best on the back of a good gallop, which I'm very confident we will see here. He has a nice turn of foot too and should be very tough to peg back once his speed and stamina kicks in, assuming he can get to the front. Being a Johnston horse means he could be run any way possible, with many of his horses being exceptional at making the running. I'm just hoping they don't do that here as he's clearly one that needs to take close order but not make all. Joe Fanning takes the ride and he's a top notch jockey when on board any prominent racer, in my opinion. He gets on very well with the horse having guided him to 3 of his 5 career wins, including twice at Southwell. He and Johnston strike up a fine 22% strike rate at Southwell and only pair up for this fellow today. They won with their other runner here this year and the Johnston yard is starting to hit a bit of form once again and I'll be monitoring their runners in the near future. Fanning also only comes here today for 2 rides, this being the most likely winner of the 2, unless the money comes for the other horse who is a real dodge pot at the best of times. I feel that Dubai Hills, the odd on favourite, is very opposable here. He has found his rhythm lately having notched up 2 wins in a row over C&D and not faces his stiffest task to gain the hat-trick. He improved for the step up to 7f when scoring here by 13l off a mark of 65, then repeated the feat by scoring by 8 lengths off a 10lb higher mark. Both of those wins came in class 5 company and he now steps up to class 4 company running off a mark of 81. I believe this mark, combined with his fellow opponents tendencies to try make the running, could catch him out as he is a much better horse when getting to dominate. He's still the likely winner but certainly opposable at best odds of 8/11. Elusive Fame may just be the man to take him on with, as he's a decent type on his day, loves Southwell and looks very tastily handicapped. The fact that Joe Fanning returns to take the reins at Southwell is another plus and I feel that he should place if he's out to try today. We have the bare 8 runners at the moment so fingers crossed that no horses are pulled out between now and race time. 9/1 is a very good each way price for this fellow and I had him priced up as the 5/1 second favourite, bang in contention. Hopefully he'll run well but I'm only playing minimum each way stakes as I don't like the all weather too much due to my recent poor results on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Agree with Elusive Fame, think the step back in trip will suit. Favourite looks very strong but this looks the next best each way alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Hopefully SER, I'll be happy with place money but I'm quietly optimistic of more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) 2:25 Leopardstown - New Phase - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower) I'm not a fan of Irish racing by any means, as I can never get it right but I really like the look of this fellow and I expect he'll put in a brave bid for the in-form Dermot Weld yard, who have recently taken a big scalp when winning the Paddy Power Chase at this course in December. Hopefully they get a good chance at making it a fine double by taking this handicap hurdle. They certainly come here with a horse who I believe is potentially well handicapped, especially as he gets 2 of the things he craves. He's getting his soft ground, which is his optimum and he's also getting a chance to win a handicap with ideal conditions, something he did not have when coming 3rd of 9 at Naas in October. The ground was quick that day and the 2m 3f trip would of also stretched him, so I think that 2miles on soft ground on the back of a strong pace will see this fellow overcome his official rating of 133. My one worry is that he has never won left handed, with all 5 career victories coming the other way around. However, he has run respectably on a few occasions going this way around and his only C&D run produced a decent 4th place on what was his 2nd run over hurdles. That experience should stand him in good stead and I expect he'll build on it if getting some luck. He's a soft ground horse through and through, so his previous 3 efforts before his last run can be ignored as an accurate form representation in my opinion, although 2 of them were decent runs on GF while the other was a mid division finish in the Galway Hurdle. I still believe everything is much better for him when going on softer ground and it's now time for us to witness this horses true ability. New Phase ran a cracker last time out at Cork, arguably one of his best performances, especially visually. He destroyed a decent field by an easy 4 lengths over 2miles on soft ground, jumping supremely in the main and staying on like a good thing. He done all of this giving 7lbs to a horse rated 7lb superior to him called Jered. That's a very good yardstick even though Weld's animal had the benefit of a run but it wouldn't equate to such a trouncing when 14lbs wrong at the weights. It's not spectacular form by any means but it was very good on the eye and proved to me that this horse is still progressing along nicely. He has to carry a lot of weight here, 11st 7lbs to be exact, but that shouldn't be a problem to a horse who looks built to carry weight and he has the benefit of one of my favourite jockeys in the saddle. Robbie McNamara, the many who gave me my biggest ever BSP winner at 150/1 in Galway, takes the ride on a horse who he has been on board 7 times, winning 4. He clearly strikes up a nice partnership with this horse and he'll be aiming to land another big race in the space of 2 weeks. Weld and Robbie Mac have a 33% strike rate over hurdles here, albeit from only 6 runners but I like my stats and this is certainly a nice looking one on paper. Weld has a 16% strike rate with hurdlers at Leopardstown and Robbie has an overall 29% strike rate here, with a tidy 9 winners from 31 rides. They're a formidable partnership and should be able to get this fellow bang in the mix here. New Phase was planned to take time off over the winter before going chasing, which is really interesting as those seem to have been delayed, hopefully in anticipation of taking this €60,000 pot. The horse himself is still unexposed having only had 8 runs over hurdles and could be well able to improve past his 133 rating. His ability to handle the high speed hustle and bustle of such a race is an unknown at this stage but he cruises through his races in nice fashion and it could actually work in his favour. He has also won in 24 and 22 runner races before, including on his hurling debut. He has a very nice turn of foot too which will be vital against some classy animals here so I'm hoping he's kept up with the pace and tries to slip a few lengths on the field when turning for home, if he gets the chance of course. The 14's available are massive, especially with 5 places being paid. I marked him down as a fair 13/2 shot as he has a lot in his favour. He'd be even shorter in my book had this race been run the other way around but I'll take my chances with a reasonably sized each way bet in the hope that he fulfills the promise that he has looked like he's capable of. Fingers crossed for another big Weld/McNamara race victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) I should of stayed away from the Irish racing. New Phase was bang in contention before he flattened a couple of hurdles and faded away before being as good as pulled up. Very poor to say the least. Elusive Fame was no better either. Never picked up under pressure and the favourite won like a good thing. Hopefully Johnston's gets dropped a few lbs and he'll be competitive again. -6pts on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) This is probably the earliest I've ever posted a selection! 2:15 Taunton - Carrickboy - 2pts @ 10/1 (PaddyPower) This is a relatively wide open class 3 contest, containing only 8 runners. It's over an extended 2m 7f on the sharp Taunton track and I fancy this to play into the strengths of Venetia Williams' lightly raced 7 year old. Carrickboy was a decent hurdler, reaching a peak rating of 132 and running his best race on his final hurdle start when placing in a Listed contest at Aintree. He was then sent chasing after a 6 month lay off. He ran over an extended 2m 1f trip at Exeter, coming a 22 length 2nd to Royal Charm, who is held in high regard by the Paul Nicholls team and aiming to run in Grade 1 company this year. Williams' charge had no chance with the winner but looked like a relatively smart prospect himself, finishing 17l clear of the 3rd place horse even though he wasn't fully extended. He then went to Cheltenham a month later to run in a class 3 handicap, in which he was running very big race before unseating at the 4th last when still bang in contention. He was sent off a well supported 6/1 favourite that day and would of been in the shake up had it not been for blundering at that fence. The ground was also against him that day, as he's a soft ground animal and it was running as good that day, so I was impressed with that run bar his mistake 4 out. They then decided to run this fellow 4 days later in a similar quality handicap at Folkstone, which I can't understand. He was sent off the 7/2 favourite but jumped badly and never really traveled too well, mainly down to having had to run 2 races so close together. Carrickboy has since been off for 4 week, which should be an ideal amount of time to have him ready to gain his first chase win. The yard aren't banging in the winners by any means but they've had a few and many more have ran very good races. I think they could be worth following in the next few weeks and they now come to a course where they do very well. At Taunton, Venetia's chasers are 13 from 50 (2 from 4 (50%) with Coleman on board), giving her a very impressive 26% strike rate, with a furtner 15 placing. They're highly impressive stats and I believe this horse is their best chance of adding to that here, although they only bring down one other chaser along with one hurdler. This is the first time that Carrickboy has run at anything past 2m 5f, as he now tackles 2 and a half furlongs further than he has before. I'm taking a chance here that he'll handle it and I suspect that we won't see a very quickly run race, which will help him utilize his very good turn of foot. He has also won at this course before, on heavy ground over hurdles. He's highly suited to these sharp tracks and he's the only course winner in the field, which is also a plus. I think he's severely overpriced here, especially as he was deemed good enough to go off favourite in 2 much tougher contests. The Henderson horse will be hard to beat here but he also has worries over the trip and is up 9lbs for his last win, while my selection drops 2lbs in the handicap for his 2 poor results last month. I'd make Williams' charge the 11/2 3rd favourite and I feel he has a very good chance of making amends over fences. Small/medium sized stakes for me and hopefully he'll repay my faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) This is probably the earliest I've ever posted a selection! Interesting you should say that Monte. Just wondered whether you thought fatigue has / had an impact on your performance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) I don't get tired Russ. I've been an "insomniac" for years now so I don't get sleepy until after 6am, then I'm back up 4 or 5 hours later to do work and so on. I don't need much sleep at all to function and I'd never consider looking through race cards if I wasn't fully awake as I know I'd end up missing vital aspects. I just think results have suffered as I actually notice more things now and it's possibly changing how I look at a race. I'm going to go through a few things in the coming weeks and try figure out where I'm going wrong because results have been down a steep slope at the moment and I can't really get my head around it. Possibly ground related as I can't pick winners on anything worse than good or else I'm just going into too much detail when I study every horse and watch their races etc. If the next few weeks don't go well then I'm just going to look at the races in a much more simplistic way, as the more I learn, the worse I get. :unsure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) I don't get tired Russ. I've been an "insomniac" for years now so I don't get sleepy until after 6am, then I'm back up 4 or 5 hours later to do work and so on. I don't need much sleep at all to function and I'd never consider looking through race cards if I wasn't fully awake as I know I'd end up missing vital aspects. I just think results have suffered as I actually notice more things now and it's possibly changing how I look at a race. I'm going to go through a few things in the coming weeks and try figure out where I'm going wrong because results have been down a steep slope at the moment and I can't really get my head around it. Possibly ground related as I can't pick winners on anything worse than good or else I'm just going into too much detail when I study every horse and watch their races etc. If the next few weeks don't go well then I'm just going to look at the races in a much more simplistic way, as the more I learn, the worse I get. :unsure I have found it really interesting watching your thread over the months Monte. In many ways it has reminded me of my flat thread I did on here the season before last (titled Fintron's flat thread 2009). Profit reached around the 900 pt mark at one point but the final few months of the season were disappointing and I ended the season with around half of the profit and only an 8 % yield, and had been hitting much higher all season until things tailed off. I think it is just part of the learning process and the thing I learned is that my methods just dont work over the jumps and I was best packing in this pretty much all together. Even to this day I have not improved this aspect of my punting and have instead taken more time on the AW. I supposed you cant be a master of all trades can you and there is only so many areas a punter can focus on. I now write a lot of verdicts for USA and French races so briefly considered expanding into these areas with my punting, but there just wasnt enough time so I had to pack it in before it got off the ground. I would imagine you have kept records of all the results when doing your analysis and I would recommend going back through and perhaps do a few little checks...are you better in sprint handicaps than staying handicaps? would you be better of doing more or less EW bets? Would you be better narrowing in your staking range to close the gap from min to max bets? Do you perform better at certain odds ranges - it might be you at your most potent to the bookies within a pricing range - for me it was 10/1 - 20/1 ish. The good thing from your point of view is that you have already shown you can put profit on the board. Its not like you have been losing all year and now need to prove to yourself that you can make a big profit for the first time, because you already have this season. With a bit of refinement I expect you will improve next season and reap the benefits of some decent analysis. Great thread, keep up the good work :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Cheers for the advice Fin and I appreciate it. I know where my good and bad points are in terms of what races I do well in. My Group class results read mightily well and my results in heritage handicaps probably read the best of the lot. It's the crappy class 5 & 6 contests where I struggle and should ignore from now on but I get too tempted to back something. My methods do (seem to) work for the NH, I just can't seem to get it right lately. I'll do a full analysis on results when I get a chance and post it. Most of my winners have been in the 10/1-25/1 bracket too but are often smaller stakes than the shorter priced selections that often let me down. I'll have to work out a staking plan based on price and what I consider to be the most value, as I don't think I'm utilizing the potential profit I could make, as I'm much better picking bigger priced horses for some reason. I think half of my problems are form related, as I'm a form reader more than anything. I don't think the form is stacking up well at the moment with the ground/unfit horses combination. I didn't start getting into good results on the flat until mid season and then it tailed off at the end due to ground changing how well the form stacked up, which I believe anyways. I need seasonal form to do well and I don't have much of that with the lack of racing. I'll be avoiding the end of the NH, start of the flat and end of the flat in terms of betting but I'll just keep watching and making lots and lots of notes before punting when I feel I've enough form to go on but I do enjoy having money on them, gives me an extra buzz so we'll see how it goes! I've lots of time to work on it so hopefully I'll get a bit of luck soon and a break won't be required. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Quoting as we've went onto a new page. 2:15 Taunton - Carrickboy - 2pts @ 10/1 (PaddyPower) This is a relatively wide open class 3 contest, containing only 8 runners. It's over an extended 2m 7f on the sharp Taunton track and I fancy this to play into the strengths of Venetia Williams' lightly raced 7 year old. Carrickboy was a decent hurdler, reaching a peak rating of 132 and running his best race on his final hurdle start when placing in a Listed contest at Aintree. He was then sent chasing after a 6 month lay off. He ran over an extended 2m 1f trip at Exeter, coming a 22 length 2nd to Royal Charm, who is held in high regard by the Paul Nicholls team and aiming to run in Grade 1 company this year. Williams' charge had no chance with the winner but looked like a relatively smart prospect himself, finishing 17l clear of the 3rd place horse even though he wasn't fully extended. He then went to Cheltenham a month later to run in a class 3 handicap, in which he was running very big race before unseating at the 4th last when still bang in contention. He was sent off a well supported 6/1 favourite that day and would of been in the shake up had it not been for blundering at that fence. The ground was also against him that day, as he's a soft ground animal and it was running as good that day, so I was impressed with that run bar his mistake 4 out. They then decided to run this fellow 4 days later in a similar quality handicap at Folkstone, which I can't understand. He was sent off the 7/2 favourite but jumped badly and never really traveled too well, mainly down to having had to run 2 races so close together. Carrickboy has since been off for 4 week, which should be an ideal amount of time to have him ready to gain his first chase win. The yard aren't banging in the winners by any means but they've had a few and many more have ran very good races. I think they could be worth following in the next few weeks and they now come to a course where they do very well. At Taunton, Venetia's chasers are 13 from 50 (2 from 4 (50%) with Coleman on board), giving her a very impressive 26% strike rate, with a furtner 15 placing. They're highly impressive stats and I believe this horse is their best chance of adding to that here, although they only bring down one other chaser along with one hurdler. This is the first time that Carrickboy has run at anything past 2m 5f, as he now tackles 2 and a half furlongs further than he has before. I'm taking a chance here that he'll handle it and I suspect that we won't see a very quickly run race, which will help him utilize his very good turn of foot. He has also won at this course before, on heavy ground over hurdles. He's highly suited to these sharp tracks and he's the only course winner in the field, which is also a plus. I think he's severely overpriced here, especially as he was deemed good enough to go off favourite in 2 much tougher contests. The Henderson horse will be hard to beat here but he also has worries over the trip and is up 9lbs for his last win, while my selection drops 2lbs in the handicap for his 2 poor results last month. I'd make Williams' charge the 11/2 3rd favourite and I feel he has a very good chance of making amends over fences. Small/medium sized stakes for me and hopefully he'll repay my faith. 2:55 Towcester - Vodka Brook - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (PaddyPower) I'm quite keen on this lightly raced 8 year old chaser, who may have just found an ideal opportunity to get off the mark for his new connections. He left the Alner yard to join Tim Walford and shaped very well on debut in first time cheek-pieces, putting in his best performance to date when 3rd of 15 over 3m 2f at Carlisle. He was running after a 6 month break and looked like a good thing before running out of petrol in the final run in, hitting 1.15 in the process. The trip was a bit on the long side given the conditions that day and he'll find this 2m 6f much more to his liking, plus the ground should be quite similar. He was turned out 2 weeks after that debut run, which turned out to be a mistake as he was pulled up in a 3m 1f contest at Wetherby and was reported to have found that race coming too soon. Walford didn't run him again until 6 weeks later, in a "Jumpers Bumper" at Southwell, in which he was easily beaten and showed little dash over the 2 mile trip. That was a joke race and he was only out to improve his race fitness I'd imagine as he hadn't a snowballs chance in hell of running well on those terms. I now find him very interesting in what will be a very testing slog in soft ground, which will be right up his street. Vodka Brook should love the Towcester track, as its undulating and testing nature should be right up his street. He gets his ideal soft ground too and he should get a race run to suit. He's running off a mark of 130, which may be a bit below what I think he could eventually achieve. He's relatively lightly raced, having only had 9 runs over fences, in which he won 2, came 2nd twice and 3rd twice. He's consistent in the main and I think a repetition of his debut run for the Walford yard would see him win this, comfortably too. The cheekpieces really perked him up for the run and he avoided his customary jumping mistakes, which were all too prominent on previous attempts over fences. It was only his stamina that gave way that day and the 4f drop here will hopefully counteract that. He faces a few decent types but many of them find winning hard and any of them who have won recently, look on stiff marks. I'd much rather be with a relatively unexposed horse who could improve more, than try and solve the race by picking something still feeling the effects of a tough mark and bad form. This fellow is the only runner for Tim Walford, who makes a 320 mile round trip to come to a track that he has only visited on 7 occasions in the past. Robert Walford, the same jockey who rode him on debut, takes the ride again. The father/son combination have had 1 runner here over fences with 1 winner, 100% strike rate! I'm hoping they also think that this track is the place to get him off the mark for their yard as I believe it'll play into his strengths. How he's deemed a 12/1 shot I'll never know. He has enough form in the book to go very well and I marked him up as a fair 13/2 shot with very good place prospects. I'm having a smallish each way bet at very tasty odds and hopefully he'll replicate that Carlisle run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Vodka Brook was going nicely until pecking on landing after what was a decent jump but he came out badly on the other side. That's awful frustrating as the way it panned out would of been perfect for him I'd of thought. Turned into a real slog and his stamina would of kicked in but that ruined his chances. Ah well, can't get it right all the time! He was eventually pulled up. -3pts on the day with the other being a non runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) 1:40 Newcastle - Leith Walk - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) Very competitive and trappy class 4 event over 2miles at Newcastle. I'm expecting they'll go a decent clip here and that my play into the hands of this relatively lightly raced 8 year old mare. Leith Walk is a hard one to get right, as she often flatters to deceive when looking in with a big chance and finding little for pressure. Her only career success was over 2m 4f at Musselburgh in a good quality class 3 handicap. They went a mighty fine gallop that day on similar ground to what we'll get today and that played right into her hands, eventually finishing very strongly from off the pace to score by 4 lengths and still going away. She always gave the impression that she'd stay further than that trip but she hasn't managed to put in a good performance at anything beyond 2m 4f. Now, Leith Walk is running over 2m, which wouldn't exactly seem ideal but I think the race could revolve around who is staying on the best in conditions where the speedier horses may well fold under pressure. If this race pans out as expected, then I find it hard to believe that she wouldn't be staying on as well as anything else and if for once, she found something off the bridle, then she could possibly scoot away to win for the 2nd time in her 15 race career. She won that class 3 event off a mark of 94 and only runs off 3lbs higher today having failed to impress after that, she should prove to be well handicapped and we know she holds her own against better opposition that this, so hopefully everything else will go in her favour. Leith Walk comes here on the back of a 2 month break. She ran over a testing 2m 1f at Carlisle, coming within 2 lengths of a horse who has subsequently followed up that success to frank my selections recent form. She just didn't handle the ground as well as the winner but looked to be tanking along when coming to challenge, hitting 1.21 in the process. She found little off the bit but was still upsides the winner when making a mistake at the final flight, plus the ground was very testing and todays is much more ideal, with the potential of even more rain, which would help. There seems to be a fair few possible pace setters here and I'm just praying that they go off at the speed I think they will. It's an 18 runner race so something is bound to tank along in front to ensure it's a good test and this will be where Leith Walk can be at her most effective. The galloping and testing nature of the Newcastle track should also play into her hooves and the very testing run in will hopefully be where she confirms her abilities to do so. She's bring partnered today by a jockey called Callum Whillans, who I've never heard of and rides for someone who I can only assume is his father, as they share the same second name. The jockey takes off a massive 10lbs to leave the mare carrying only 9st 12lbs in this race, which is another positive. The trainer has a very good record at the track, having had a 100/1 winner previously along with many other good priced winners. He has had 9 finish first and 10 finish second, all that coming from 62 runners, with a massive LSP of £127. The young claimer hasn't got amazing stats by any means but he has won and came 2nd on Leith Walk, all this coming from 5 rides. She was 25/1 when winning that class 3 event so hopefully she'll defy decent odds to fly home once again. I marked the horse up as a fair 10/1 shot with very good place claims assuming there's a good gallop, if there's not, then we can forget about this horse having any chance as she won't win a sprint in the run in but would probably come there shaping as if she's traveling the best so an in-running lay may be advisable, especially as she often trades a lot shorter than her BSP. She's currently trading at 14/1, which I think could end up drifting out, despite the fact that I think she should be shorter. There isn't a cent around for her on the exchanges at the moment and the fact that she's from an unfamiliar yard may mean we'll get an even bigger price come the off, which I'd be quite happy with! Medium each way stakes in the hope that she is as good as I think she can be, plus there's 4 places being paid, so I feel she could certainly fill one of those if she runs to her abilitiy. :hope:hope:hope:hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Leith Walk finished 8th. Got outpaced and made a stupid mistake 4 out. I'll be keeping an eye on her for sure and hopefully she'll run over further soon. -4pts on another poor day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) 5:15 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 4pts @ 11/2 (VC) Back with reasoning later. Price shouldn't be around too long and I've already missed 7's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) Re-hashed version of my previous write up for her. 5:15 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 4pts @ 11/2 (VC) Talented mare on her day who loves racing around Kempton, having won here on 4 occasions, including 2 over this flying 5 furlongs. She needs a very quickly run race to be at her best and I feel the numerous pace setters in the field could set it up perfectly for her, assuming she comes back to something like her best. She switched yards recently and made her debut start for the Michael Mullineaux stable when finishing 9th of 12 at Wolverhampton. That was after a 4 month lay off and she only finished 4 lengths off the winner, having been hampered at the start. She can win from behind but is most effective when sitting in behind the pace, which she never had a chance of doing after that interference. She was also denied a clear run just over 1f out which certainly didn't help matters and I believe she has come on ten fold for that run, as shown at Kempton a week ago. Absa Lutte is now rated as a 71 animal, and that looks a pretty attractive mark, given that she placed off 79 on the turf (she's much better on AW) and she's now 3lbs lower than her last C&D win, which was also in this grade. Her jockey, Joesph Young, takes off another valuable 7lbs from his claim, effectively leaving her to run off a mark of 64, which has her very well in, in my opinion. Young is a decent jockey despite his lack of experience and good value for his claim, he also has a decent record on the all weather in his relatively short career, having won on board 3 of his 29 rides, with a further 8 placing. His has ridden twice at Kemtpon , both for Mullineaux, in which he finished 2nd and 3rd, so hopefully he atones for that here, by gaining victory. Absa Lutte ran over the flying 5 at Kempton last time out, in which she finished 1 1/2 lengths behind the leading duo to finish in a gallant 3rd place. She was given a very easy time of it but got up to land place money on the line. That was her best run for some time and I feel the iron is hot and ready to strike, helped by the fact that she'll only have to carry 8st on her back today. The race will be run ideally to suit and she's somehow judged to be a bigger price than Feeling Foxy, to whom she finished behind last time out but has an 8lb swing at the weights here. The other main danger is the Stewart Williams trained, Stratton Banker, who is in great form of late but flopped last time out when coming last of 5 over 6f here. The step back in trip will suit as will the likely fast gallop but he's a Lingfield/Wolverhampton type horse and Kempton may not play to his strengths. 3/1 is much too short as well for a horse who is 6lbs higher than his last win, which was at Lingfield when defeating Fromsong, a distinctly average 12 year old horse. Numerous others come in to the equation but I feel many are either handicapped out of it or avoidable at their respective prices. I'll happily take them on with a horse who is clearly in good knick and also shaped as if ready to get back into the winners enclosure over this C&D last time out. Interestingly, Mullineaux is making the 350+ mile round trip for the second time in a week to bring Absa Lutte to the location of her greatest successes and I think that speaks volumes. He only brings two horses to Kempton and has only had 26 runners here since having his first in '01. The slow going at Wolverhampton on her penultimate start wouldn't of helped her either and the Kempton surface is obviously ideal. She's perfectly drawn in stall 11 and right beside the likely pace setter, Feeling Foxy. There are a few more pace angles in the race but I think he's the most likely of them to set it, as he's most effective when doing so. I'm hoping that Mullineaux's charge will keep relatively close order on the pace before pouncing late on, if she's good enough. It'll be mighty tough for her contenders here if she's out to win and on song as she has a lot of ability on the back of a strong pace and she seems very well handicapped on all known form. I marked her up as a fair 3/1 (25%) shot, way shorter than the 11/2 which I got her at and I believe it's a much truer reflection of her chances. A big win bet for me here at a price that I can't ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+152pts) 3rd in the end. Good run but not good enough. Winner won going away after drifting to a backable price. Absa had it perfectly run for her to attack but she's just not up to this level nowadays. Hopefully she'll run here again next time and be dropped in class. -4pts on the day. Disappointing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+135pts) 3:40 Hereford - Lord Singer - 2pts @ 6/1 (VC) I'll be back with reasoning in a couple of hours. :gimme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts