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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

Monterosso
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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+205pts) 4:50 Salisbury - Lochan Mor - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365) Consistent yet frustrating 4 year old who I selected last time out when he finished 2nd of 11 when headed by Esprit De Midas in the final 50 yards of a 6 furlong contest at Haydock Park on very testing Heavy ground. My selection took up the running over 1f out and possibly hit the front too early. He hung right in the run in and could give no more, with more patient tactics in this 18 runner field and a bit of luck he could go one better if running to ability. He hit 1.51 in running last time out after being well backed throughout the day into 11/4 favouritism from 6/1. He has finished 2nd on 7 occasions from 14 career starts with just 1 victory to his name. He is ultimately consistent and has only finished out of the top 4 on one occasion when having his stamina stretched over 7f on the All-Weather track at Southwell. Lochan Mor should have everything going for himself today with heavy rain predicted at Salisbury pretty much ensuring the soft ground on which he excels on. I also think the large field should help him settle, he's tactically versatile with both prominent and more cautious tactics suiting him to equal effect and with his draw in stall 18 of 18 he should have the option to do either. With Salisbury being a track that typically favours the big galloping horse I find it interesting that Michael Bell bring Lochan Mor here for the first time. He doesn't often visit this track and has only came here 7 times this year with no winners but 6 places. Overall, he has a decent 11% strike rate here and this is the only horse he sends to this track today. Young jockey Ian Burns takes off a valuable 7lbs in weight effectively leaving my selection to run here off a mark of 73 with weight carried being 8st 12lbs. That's a sure help and one of his lowest weights carried in quite a while. The most likely chance of Lochan Mor winning a race of this calibre is with ground with some cut in it and he will get that here. His form on Good-to-Soft reads - 2-2-2 and with a bit of luck he could be adding a "1" to that today if all things pan out in his favour. With the assumption of the track suiting him and the ground being ideal I'm expecting a very big run here from the ultra consistent and relatively unexposed Michael Bell gelding. His jockey for the day comes here for only this ride and despite not having the most impressive overall stats from his relatively short riding career he has only ridden twice at the track with a 2nd place and a 3rd place. He must be good value for his 7lb claim and he has ridden 12 times for Bell, winning once. The yard have been bang in form this month and I think they'll be expecting a big run from their only runner at this track and at the moment he's priced up at 8/1 which looks generous to me. I had him as 9/2 clear favourite and I wouldn't be surprised to see him backed into something around that mark today. It's a clearer reflection of his chances and I think he can gain his first win since May of last year if he gets some luck in running and a good ride from his claimer. Regardless, he has a lot going for him here and is worth a medium sized each way bet.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+205pts)

No worries; your strike rate has been phenomenal for the month. :clap You are just gearing down ever so slightly so that you can start October with a bang...;)
Cheers mate, that was a shocking run though but long overdue from a very consistent horse. Hopefully he'll bounce back next time. :hope Tomorrow's another day. :)
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Monterosso

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) 3:45 Newmarket - Zaidan - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365) Unexposed 2 year old who made great strides when winning the Chesham Stakes at Ascot in June, beating some classy 2 year olds in the process. He was over 5 lengths ahead of the highly progressive King Torus who finished 4th that day, he has went on to win 2 Group 2 races since including one demolition job when winning by 6 lengths. My selection then bombed out on softer ground next time out in the Listed Washington Singer at Newbury. That was only a 4 runner race which was run at a very fast gallop, he tried to keep up with the pace setter early on which put paid to his challenge and he found little in the final couple of furlongs. The soft ground was put forwards as the main reason for his poor showing but I don't believe that to be the case. He certainly appeared to be traveling nicely throughout and in my opinion he suffered due to the pace. There's no real speed merchants in this race that will take the field along at 100mph so I'm expecting things could go in the favour of Zaidan. He brings the best form to the table and is officially rated as the best horse in the race, 3lbs clear of his nearest challenger, The Paddyman. There is a possibility that the ground may not be overly soft tomorrow as it's expected to be fairly sunny at Newmarket and if it dries up a bit it'll suit my selection perfectly, if not, I still think he has the ability to go well with a bit of cut in the ground despite that being the excuse for his run last time out. The Newmarket course should suit his galloping style perfectly and he's a big strong colt who should still have a lot more to give. Zaidan holds entries in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes and the Racing Post Trophy. He's clearly held in high regard and I consider him a very exciting prospect for next year if all goes well. It may be a bit risky backing him on this ground but I really thought he was traveling well on it when last seen and he may find everything a little bit easier this time around. Seb Sanders is on board again and he has taken the ride on all 3 of his career starts. Sanders rides the course excellently and shows a massive £106 profit to £1 level stakes. He has a good 13% strike rate when riding for Clive Brittain and shows a tidy profit too. Sanders comes here for only 1 ride which is interesting and I think he's a great partner for the potentially top class Zaidan. I had him priced up as 5/2 joint favourite with the Hughes/Hannon horse and I feel the 9/2 available is quite a lot higher than it should be. All in all I'm expecting a big run and hopefully my judgement of the ground doesn't come back to bite me. He's worth smallish stakes at a price I consider too big.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) 4:55 Newmarket - Waveband - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) Fairly exposed 3 year old who is hard to catch right but has the ability on a going day to win a race of this kind. She is heavily raced with 21 career starts already with 3 wins, 3 seconds and 5 third places. Her last win came in a 6 runner race at Leicester last month when she made all to beat a couple of decent types quite easily. That was off a 4lb lower mark and despite bombing out a couple of times since I still think she has enough in her to put in a brave challenge here with the on fire Frankie Dettori on board her for the first time. He has a good 14% strike rate at this course and rides the track well, he's a big positive for this horse and has been riding brilliantly of late. He has won on 9 of his last 18 rides giving him an excellent 50% strike rate for the last 12 days or so. He comes to Newmarket today for 3 rides and each of them have excellent chances in my opinion. Waveband likes to try and make all most of the time and Dettori is a jockey I always love to see on a front runner. This filly seems to run poorly, then well, then poorly and then well again. She ran well on her penultimate start when just pipped by La Zamora on good to soft ground suggesting that she should have no problems with any ground here today. She bombed out last time out on even softer ground after traveling well for a long time. She shouldn't get ground too soft today and worst case scenario should be good to soft which she handled with ease. She should be battling it out for the lead with Ardent here but if she can get the better of her and grab the lead she'll be very hard to pass at a testing galloping track which should suit her perfectly. She has run very well at this course before too. 14/1 looks too big to me and she's an 8/1 shot in my book and I expect she should run well, hopefully.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts)

3:45 Newmarket - Zaidan - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365) Unexposed 2 year old who made great strides when winning the Chesham Stakes at Ascot in June, beating some classy 2 year olds in the process. He was over 5 lengths ahead of the highly progressive King Torus who finished 4th that day, he has went on to win 2 Group 2 races since including one demolition job when winning by 6 lengths. My selection then bombed out on softer ground next time out in the Listed Washington Singer at Newbury. That was only a 4 runner race which was run at a very fast gallop, he tried to keep up with the pace setter early on which put paid to his challenge and he found little in the final couple of furlongs. The soft ground was put forwards as the main reason for his poor showing but I don't believe that to be the case. He certainly appeared to be traveling nicely throughout and in my opinion he suffered due to the pace. There's no real speed merchants in this race that will take the field along at 100mph so I'm expecting things could go in the favour of Zaidan. He brings the best form to the table and is officially rated as the best horse in the race, 3lbs clear of his nearest challenger, The Paddyman. There is a possibility that the ground may not be overly soft tomorrow as it's expected to be fairly sunny at Newmarket and if it dries up a bit it'll suit my selection perfectly, if not, I still think he has the ability to go well with a bit of cut in the ground despite that being the excuse for his run last time out. The Newmarket course should suit his galloping style perfectly and he's a big strong colt who should still have a lot more to give. Zaidan holds entries in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes and the Racing Post Trophy. He's clearly held in high regard and I consider him a very exciting prospect for next year if all goes well. It may be a bit risky backing him on this ground but I really thought he was traveling well on it when last seen and he may find everything a little bit easier this time around. Seb Sanders is on board again and he has taken the ride on all 3 of his career starts. Sanders rides the course excellently and shows a massive £106 profit to £1 level stakes. He has a good 13% strike rate when riding for Clive Brittain and shows a tidy profit too. Sanders comes here for only 1 ride which is interesting and I think he's a great partner for the potentially top class Zaidan. I had him priced up as 5/2 joint favourite with the Hughes/Hannon horse and I feel the 9/2 available is quite a lot higher than it should be. All in all I'm expecting a big run and hopefully my judgement of the ground doesn't come back to bite me. He's worth smallish stakes at a price I consider too big.
Zaidan is a non-runner.
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Monterosso

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) Cheers lads, no luck today. Shocking run from her. 1:55 Newmarket - Cityscape - 2pts @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Once again I'm selecting this big 4 year old colt, he was a very smart two and three year old, placing in Group 2 & 3 contests and was sent off 16/1 in the 2000 Guineas in which Sea The Stars won. He finished out the back of the field but was reported sore and wasn't seen for nearly a year. He came back to finish an excellent 4th in the Newbury Spring Cup off top weight. Next time out he was backed from evens into 4/9 in a Listed race, he finished a neck behind King Of Dixie mainly due to running all over the place which cost him a victory. He clearly has lots of ability and looks over priced considering his placings at Group level. Robert Charlton has hit a bit of form lately with 25% of his last 20 runners winning. Steve Drowne takes the ride today and he has been on this fine colt 6 times, winning twice and coming second 3 times. He clearly gets on well with this horse and I'm expecting a big run again. Cityscape defied a 4 month absence to win nicely at Listed level last time out when finishing comfortably ahead of Secrecy and Awzaan (who he re-opposes today). With the ground possibly resembling something of a bog I'm expecting this big and powerful colt to put up a big effort. He came 2nd in a Group 3 on very testing ground last year over 7f, which didn't suit and won his maiden as a 2 year old on Good to Soft when scoring by 9 lengths. He always struck me as one who'd love a lot of cut in the ground and now he'll get it over his preferred trip. This is the course that he bombed out on in the 2000 Guineas but that wasn't anything to do with the course and over 1m here he should find everything suiting him perfectly. It's typically a galloping course which is ideal for his style and his big rangy physique should thoroughly enjoy the likely soft ground. Penitent is the big worry, he loves soft ground and has the excellent Murtagh on board but I think the potential slow gallop will suit my selection even more. I rate Cityscape as the better horse regardless and he's the 5/2 favourite in my book. He should come on for having that run 4 weeks ago and step up to the plate here. He's worth a small/medium bet and will hopefully follow up on his impressive win last time out.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) Now for a risky one, I've no idea if she'll handle the ground but the price is too big. 2:30 Newmarket - Rimth - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365) Extremely fast and talented filly who was described as "the fastest filly I've ever trained" by her trainer Paul Cole. She has only had 4 runs to date, an impressive win in a maiden when running very green and powering on close home to win easily over 5f, then she finished 3rd in the Lowther Stakes at York when finishing a few lengths behind Hooray on very fast ground. That was a highly impressive run considering she wasn't seen for 3 months after her debut win and she ran quite green throughout. Next time out she finished 2nd in a Listed race at Salisbury when just edged out by Brevity who won by a nose. I wouldn't of classed Jamie Spencer's ride that day as very good and I think he cost her a win there with some odd tactics. She then ran in a Group 3 contest at Ayr 2 weeks ago, she was held up for a change (which I think is needed) but she ran so freely and pulled throughout which possibly cost her any chance of showing her true ability. When she did try to get through the gaps never opened and she got in several barging matches throughout and was eased inside the final half furlong, she was sent off as the well backed 11/8 favourite after being available at 5/2 early doors. Interestingly, Jamie Spencer isn't getting the leg up today and I think that's a good thing as I don't think he once gave her a good ride. William Buick gets the ride and he's a jockey I rate highly, he has had a good run of form this year and has been riding very well. He rides the course well too and has a decent 12% strike rate here and a 25% strike rate from his last 16 rides since the end of May. He should be a welcomed addition to this filly and simple, uncomplicated ride should be to her benefit. Rimth has all the speed and ability in the world if she can learn to settle and with a patient ride here she might just get a race run to suit with a likely strong gallop pretty much assured. The only problem is the ground and the extreme amount of cut in it. I've no idea how she'll handle it but at these odds it's certainly worth the risk. She seems to have the action of a horse who might just take to it but it is a risk. If she does indeed take the the ground the 11/1 available is absolutely huge and I expect she'll be well backed if connections expect her to take to it. If not 11/1 is tiny and she hasn't a chance! It's a risk regardless but I'm having a small each way bet at tasty odds.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) 3:05 Newmarket - Approve - 1pt @ 10/1 (Bet365) Another previous selection of mine, he is a highly consistent two year old who already has two Group 2's to his name, winning the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot over 5f and winning the Gimcrack Stakes at York on his penultimate start when winning quite impressively. He has bundles of speed and showed a great attitude when battling back to get up in the final furlong after looking in real bother 3f out, he ran on very well down the middle of the track on possibly the slowest part of ground at York and had a poor draw also. He stepped up on that Ascot form when winning that race at York and is clearly thriving, he got slower ground that day and will get even slower ground today, which is an unknown but may just suit. He's highly thought of and has entries in numerous Group 1's over the coming year including the 2000 Guineas and The Derby, although he mightn't be good enough for that he still has a lot more to come. William Haggas usually does well around Newmarket and has an OK strike rate of 10%. Interestingly he's 2/3 (66%) when Ryan Moore rides for him at this course and even more interesting that Moore replaces Eddie Ahern aboard this classy 2 year old. Approve ran a gallant race behind Saamidd on his first try over 7f, he finished 2 lengths behind in second place. The winner of that race is extremely highly thought of and that run proved to me that the Haggas colt is still on an upwards curve despite being one of the more exposed 2 year old Group performers. That run was as good if not better than anything he has produced before and he was 1/2 a length ahead of Waiter's Dream who won the Acomb Stakes so easily. He will have to pull out even more to win this but I certainly think he's a horse worth following and no better man that Ryan Moore to have in the saddle. 10/1 is too big to me and is worth a small stakes bet on the off-chance that he does indeed pull more out of the fire.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) Now for a biggie and my Nap. Final selection of the day. 4:50 Newmarket - Dolphin Rock - 2.5pts e/w @ 9/1 (PaddyPower) Highly consistent and progressive gelding who hasn't finished out of the frame at all this season. He started off the season racing off a mark of 67 and is now rated as an 83 animal. He has come on leaps and bounds in his 3 year old campaign showing a great attitude throughout. He has raced 7 times this season, winning twice and coming 2nd or 3rd on the other 4 occasions. His best efforts have come with cut in the ground and that's pretty much assured here today and with the Newmarket course likely to suit his style he has everything going for him. Dolphin Rock has shown a good attitude on many an occasion when looking beaten only to battle back and give his all, he has been unlucky a number of times and with a bit of luck today this race is certainly not beyond his abilities. Jamie Spencer takes the ride on him today and whenever he rides for David Barron it means business. He has ridden for him 125 times and they should a level stakes profit and have a very impressive 22% strike rate. They also teamed up for a winner here yesterday when Amitola got her head in front over 6f. Dolphin Rock should have everything to suit here, he loves soft ground and has a sound draw in stall 8. If there is a strong gallop I expect he'll have a big say come the end of the race when his stamina kicks in and I certainly expect he should place at a minimum. I'd imagine Barron has aimed him at this race for a while now and a mark of 83 is certainly not insurmountable for this progressive son of Mark of Esteem. 9/1 looks extremely generous to me and I think he will go off shorter, I had him as the 7/2 clear favourite given his love of the ground and the doubts amongst many of the field handling it. Hopefully he justifies a maximum each way stake and progresses onto the next level by taking this race. He certainly has it in him and as long as Spencer doesn't ruin his chances he should go close. Total Staked - 10pts

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Monterosso

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts) Thanks again mate, great price on the exchange alright. She ran her heart out but the winner wasn't for catching unfortunately. I'm happy with the place money as I didn't know how she'd handle the ground. Hopefully Approve runs well and then the big one, Dolphin Rock. :hope There's money for him too.

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