Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July If yesterday was the traditional Queen stage, then today is what I deem the official Grandpa stage. This is the last flat stage (excluding the Champs-Elysee finale) of the Tour De France where those riders who are in their final tour often chase one final piece of glory. Back in 2007 it was the retiring Axel Merckx and Michael Boogerd who came up just short, beaten to the line by Sandy Casar. Of Course, today is still very much a day for the sprinters, but after a few tough mountain stages, there's always that small chance that the break succeeds, and I'd be remiss not to take a couple of riders who are either retiring or very close to: Lance Armstrong @ 151 - Retiring. Said he had his final chance the other day but might try one last time. George Hincapie @ 101 - BMC have had a fairly bad tour with the Evans injury and still need a stage win. George may be on his last tour and this is surely his last chance to put himself at the front of the race (though I still may take him Sunday). Jens Voigt @ 101 - Jens is a machine, and I guess he could keep riding on forever. There is a possibility he will retire though and he's only been in one break all tour, which is very un-Jens like. All bets with Centrebet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Mark Cavendish @ 1.92 Betfair The chances of a sprint finish are very high and the chances of Cavendish winning that sprint are also quite high. The loss of Renshaw doesn't seem to have had too big an effect and unless the Manxman crashes or the break wins I don't really see how he could not win this stage. Julian Dean Top 3 Finish @ 7 Sportingbet Providing the break fails then Cav should win, and there's a very high chance that Ale Jet will also take another spot. This leaves Dean, Hushovd, Rojas, Ciolek, EBH, McEwen and Freire to theoretically take the last spot. EBH was in the break yesterday and I think that he wont have the same kick he otherwise might. Ergo I am ruling him out of the running for a top 3 spot. McEwen is aging and hurt and hasn't done much all tour. Freire has achieved even less, so I'm ruling both of them out. Hushovd doesn't have the same power and only has 1 top 3 sprint finish all tour (the stage he won does not count as a sprint). This basically means a show down between Dean, Rojas and Ciolek, and I favour the Kiwi to do something after being released from his Tyler Farrar duties. (Once already he has been released from these duties and on that day he came 2nd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted July 23, 2010 Author Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Arashiro W 180 betfair Arashiro Top 3 26 Betfair I think today it will be almost sure a sprint day. Probably there will be a break, but for sure Columbia and Lampre will go for a strong ride and will not let big advantage. Julian Dean was my top selection today for Top 3, but the value disapears :) Arashiro firstly say that will not participate in bunch sprints this year, but in the previous stage, that finished in sprint he decided to have a go. Finished sixth, after him were Huschovd and Ciolek. Bbox for sure made great Tour so far and it may be another chance. Arashiro is capable also to make some late breakways on flat stages as in this year Giro, when finished third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Mark Cavendish @ 1.92 Betfair The chances of a sprint finish are very high and the chances of Cavendish winning that sprint are also quite high. The loss of Renshaw doesn't seem to have had too big an effect and unless the Manxman crashes or the break wins I don't really see how he could not win this stage. Julian Dean Top 3 Finish @ 7 Sportingbet Providing the break fails then Cav should win, and there's a very high chance that Ale Jet will also take another spot. This leaves Dean, Hushovd, Rojas, Ciolek, EBH, McEwen and Freire to theoretically take the last spot. EBH was in the break yesterday and I think that he wont have the same kick he otherwise might. Ergo I am ruling him out of the running for a top 3 spot. McEwen is aging and hurt and hasn't done much all tour. Freire has achieved even less, so I'm ruling both of them out. Hushovd doesn't have the same power and only has 1 top 3 sprint finish all tour (the stage he won does not count as a sprint). This basically means a show down between Dean, Rojas and Ciolek, and I favour the Kiwi to do something after being released from his Tyler Farrar duties. (Once already he has been released from these duties and on that day he came 2nd) :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy. Superb stuff again Crouchy :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy. Superb stuff again Crouchy :ok. Cheers Kev. The tour has started out badly but lady luck has really been on my side the last few stages. :ok Now if only she could do something about Luis Leon moving into the top 10 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted July 23, 2010 Author Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Mark Cavendish @ 1.92 Betfair The chances of a sprint finish are very high and the chances of Cavendish winning that sprint are also quite high. The loss of Renshaw doesn't seem to have had too big an effect and unless the Manxman crashes or the break wins I don't really see how he could not win this stage. Julian Dean Top 3 Finish @ 7 Sportingbet Providing the break fails then Cav should win, and there's a very high chance that Ale Jet will also take another spot. This leaves Dean, Hushovd, Rojas, Ciolek, EBH, McEwen and Freire to theoretically take the last spot. EBH was in the break yesterday and I think that he wont have the same kick he otherwise might. Ergo I am ruling him out of the running for a top 3 spot. McEwen is aging and hurt and hasn't done much all tour. Freire has achieved even less, so I'm ruling both of them out. Hushovd doesn't have the same power and only has 1 top 3 sprint finish all tour (the stage he won does not count as a sprint). This basically means a show down between Dean, Rojas and Ciolek, and I favour the Kiwi to do something after being released from his Tyler Farrar duties. (Once already he has been released from these duties and on that day he came 2nd) :clap:clap:clapTop Class! :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July great work crouchie fella :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Cheers Kev. The tour has started out badly but lady luck has really been on my side the last few stages. :ok Now if only she could do something about Luis Leon moving into the top 10 :hope To be in the profit you must be in for the tour mate is an exceptional achievement in a sport which isn't the easiest to read and which has lots of factors. Cracking stuff mate :clap:clap. Plenty of winners from plenty of angles in this thread. Definitely one of the other sports threads of the year IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 23, 2010 Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Mark Cavendish @ 1.92 Betfair The chances of a sprint finish are very high and the chances of Cavendish winning that sprint are also quite high. The loss of Renshaw doesn't seem to have had too big an effect and unless the Manxman crashes or the break wins I don't really see how he could not win this stage. Julian Dean Top 3 Finish @ 7 Sportingbet Providing the break fails then Cav should win, and there's a very high chance that Ale Jet will also take another spot. This leaves Dean, Hushovd, Rojas, Ciolek, EBH, McEwen and Freire to theoretically take the last spot. EBH was in the break yesterday and I think that he wont have the same kick he otherwise might. Ergo I am ruling him out of the running for a top 3 spot. McEwen is aging and hurt and hasn't done much all tour. Freire has achieved even less, so I'm ruling both of them out. Hushovd doesn't have the same power and only has 1 top 3 sprint finish all tour (the stage he won does not count as a sprint). This basically means a show down between Dean, Rojas and Ciolek, and I favour the Kiwi to do something after being released from his Tyler Farrar duties. (Once already he has been released from these duties and on that day he came 2nd) :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted July 23, 2010 Author Share Posted July 23, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July The big TT is comming Will leave earlier tomorrow for the mountains for the weekend so will not have a chance to watch, but here is my go Vasil Kiryenka 151 e/w bet365/will hill I would play him just for top 3. Think that he has very good chances. Showed powerful display this year. Also is a strong TT. Champion of Belaruse, twice in Top 10 at the world championships. Finished 18-th at the prolog at 38 seconds from Cancelara, but the longer and not so technical route will suits better. Looked very fresh at the second Tormalet finish. Seems he still has the legs. Tomorrow 51 km will be a real quest for some of the tired guys. I am pretty sure Kiryenka took a good rest day today Chris Horner 501 e/w bet365 Showed the form of his life during the tour the France. Pretty sure he would be in Top 6 if he do not need to help on numerous time to Armstrong. This year improved a lot his ITT qualities and won a stage at Vuelta at Pais Vasco. It was the last stage, when the general classification was decided. Beat guys like Valverde, Kloeden, Samuel Sanches, Michael Rogers etc.... He has what to win, may enter in top 8 with good TT and he also may lose something. So guys, if you have no limited bet365 account, run fast to take the odds :) 151 at bluesquare also looked good enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 24, 2010 Share Posted July 24, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July :notworthy great work crouchie fella :ok :clap:clap:clapTop Class! :clap:clap:clap Cheers guys :ok To be in the profit you must be in for the tour mate is an exceptional achievement in a sport which isn't the easiest to read and which has lots of factors. Cracking stuff mate :clap:clap. Plenty of winners from plenty of angles in this thread. Definitely one of the other sports threads of the year IMO. The good thing about a sport which is hard to read and has lots of factors is that however hard it may be to pick as a punter, it is even harder to be fully efficient as a bookmaker. Profit levels are good, though some poor stake structuring and varying levels of luck on different selections means it isn't as strong as I'd like it to be. Still, being in profit is never something to complain about! Now onto tonight: Tony Martin @ 7 Sportsbet (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) There are better win odds out there but it is very important to take the E/W here. Martin has not been in any breaks and hasn't tried since Bastille Day. His DS has said that this is now the big goal for him and with the exception of his work for Cav yesterday he has done very little in terms of energy expenditure. Compare this to Cancellara, who has been working hard for Schleck, whilst the efforts of Vino and Contador (the other 2 favourites) speaks for itself. Martin missed out on a prologue win but the weather conditions played a big factor in that. He beat Cancellara in the recent Tour de Suisse time trial and has a massive chance to take the stage win tonight. If he doesn't, I find it very very difficult to think he wont at least come 2nd or 3rd, so by taking the E/W you put yourself in an extremely high likelihood of profit. IMO only a mechanical, sickness, fall or bad weather will stop Martin from a top 3 finish, and he is every chance of going on to take the win too. Dave Zabriskie to finish ahead of David Millar @ 1.62 Sportsbet Millar has been riding with cracked ribs the whole tour and is riding with some discomfort. He has said that he will try 100% today, but he also said that the result wouldn't come. Every time I have seen him in the tour he has looked to be struggling, whilst Zabriskie looked strong in guiding home the peleton on stage 16. Over this sort of distance Zabriskie could very easily beat Millar on merit (they are both very strong TT'ers), but with Millar's injury I give a big advantage to the American. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 25, 2010 Share Posted July 25, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Tony Martin @ 7 Sportsbet (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) There are better win odds out there but it is very important to take the E/W here. Martin has not been in any breaks and hasn't tried since Bastille Day. His DS has said that this is now the big goal for him and with the exception of his work for Cav yesterday he has done very little in terms of energy expenditure. Compare this to Cancellara, who has been working hard for Schleck, whilst the efforts of Vino and Contador (the other 2 favourites) speaks for itself. Martin missed out on a prologue win but the weather conditions played a big factor in that. He beat Cancellara in the recent Tour de Suisse time trial and has a massive chance to take the stage win tonight. If he doesn't, I find it very very difficult to think he wont at least come 2nd or 3rd, so by taking the E/W you put yourself in an extremely high likelihood of profit. IMO only a mechanical, sickness, fall or bad weather will stop Martin from a top 3 finish, and he is every chance of going on to take the win too. Dave Zabriskie to finish ahead of David Millar @ 1.62 Sportsbet Millar has been riding with cracked ribs the whole tour and is riding with some discomfort. He has said that he will try 100% today, but he also said that the result wouldn't come. Every time I have seen him in the tour he has looked to be struggling, whilst Zabriskie looked strong in guiding home the peleton on stage 16. Over this sort of distance Zabriskie could very easily beat Millar on merit (they are both very strong TT'ers), but with Millar's injury I give a big advantage to the American. :notworthy I think Crouch Potato is some kind of god.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckatoni Posted July 25, 2010 Share Posted July 25, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July :notworthy I think Crouch Potato is some kind of god.. Or has direct connections with Paul :lol. McEwen performs always well on the last stage of the TDF. He finished in 4th at the last Sprint. With a little bit luck Top 3 finish is certainly possible. McEwen top 3 @ 4 Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 25, 2010 Share Posted July 25, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July :notworthy I think Crouch Potato is some kind of god.. If only that were so. Sadly, my rather bad habit of staking more on long term bets than stage bets, coupled with my inability to land the KOTM or multiple top 10 bets means this tour isn't nearly as profitable as it should be. There's still one more stage to try and add a little more profit though: Turgot to finish ahead of Mondory @ 1.9 Betchoice In all but a couple of sprints these two have contested this tour Turgot has come up trumps. Turgot was the fastest in the last sprint on stage 18 and I give him the advantage here. Expect some late attacks by riders who are strong on the flats. With HTC weakened and Petacchi theoretically benefited by having less points available in the sprint (if Cav sprints for a minor place even less chance he or Hushovd can over-take him for green) then you have to give the late attack a chance, albeit the odds-against outcome. As such, you want to try and pick the strong men of the cobbles and flats. I've gone with: George Hincapie @ 151 Centrebet Alessandro Ballan @ 80 Betfair Juan Antonio Flecha @ 151 Centrebet Martijn Maaskant @ 201 Centrebet Alexander Vinokourov @ 70 Betfair Fabian Cancellara @ 81 Centrebet Spartacus and Vino are previous winners of the Champs-Elysee stage, with both their victories coming from a late attack. The others mentioned are all strong cobblestone riders with decent sprints (The laps on the banks of the Champs-Elysee are over cobbled pavers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurudave Posted July 27, 2010 Share Posted July 27, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Just to chip in one last time great thread and look forward to it next year. Thanks to the big contributors especially crouch your posts are always great to read! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 27, 2010 Share Posted July 27, 2010 Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Just to chip in one last time great thread and look forward to it next year. Thanks to the big contributors especially crouch your posts are always great to read! No worries mate :ok Will see what's doing with telecast and bookmaker offerings, but may be back for the Vuelta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.