Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Cheers guys. Nice to finally get on the board. Reading the breaks a bit better now too, what with Vogondy making the break as well. I must say this tour has been much more animated so far this year. The cobbles early have shaken things up and the failure of Cav makes things much more interesting. What will be very interesting now is the efforts of Garmin. Dean and Hunter contested that sprint nicely and it will be interesting to see what odds they are installed at later. What should also be interesting is if the riders continue to take their lead off Cav or recognize his poor form and try and make the going themselves. The big reason Pettachi won today was because he was the first to go because Cav was so off. This is his experience coming to the fore, and we saw that with McEwen taking his wheel too. Interesting result also from Turgot. I don't believe he will win a sprint, but having already been in the break once, he might get in another one this tour, and if he does, today clearly indicates he will likely be the fastest sprinter of the group.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July One I've been contemplating for a while, and have decided to take before the price moves. Top 10 Finish - Luis Leon Sanchez @ 7 Willhill With no Valverde LLS is very much the main man at Caisse. He has had strong results in shorter races like Paris Nice but until now has not replicated his form in the longer races. However, so far I have been very impressed with his riding. He has been attentive on every stage and showing himself at the front of the peleton. He equipped himself well over the cobbles coming in ahead of riders like Armstrong, Leipheimer, Sastre and Basso. There are also a few downhill finishes which will suit the Spaniard as he is an excellent descender. Wont challenge for a podium but I make his top 10 chances at around 30-40%

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Another 185km flat stage which should end in a sprint. Main bets are: Robbie Hunter E/W @ 29 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) Bet365 With Farrar too injured to sprint at present Hunter has been given a license to contest the sprints for himself. Yesterday he finished fast but ultimately ran out of road. In Julian Dean and the Daves he has a good lead out train still and with Cavendish in poor form I think he has a good chance. I think a more appropriate price here would be 20 for the win and 5 for a top 3, so we're getting value on both fronts. Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 18 Betfair EBH was boxed in slightly yesterday and I feel if he had a better run he might have got closer. Pettachi is in strong form and won yesterday by his experience as much as his speed. With the peleton now more aware of Cav's vulnerability I think this sprint will be approached a bit more openly (i.e. not doing everything off Cav's lead) and the odds here are quite strong for a rider who looked very fast yesterday. And a H@H Turgot to finish ahead of Mondory @ 2.1 Centrebet Turgot showed an impressive sprint yesterday when he finished sixth, whilst Monday was some 15-20 places. Indeed, in all the road stages thus far, Turgot has finished ahead of Mondory, even on the stage where Turgot was in a break that got caught.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 5 Gerald Ciolek place Betfair 8.6 With Farrar hurt and Cavendish in not so great form seems a lot of other top sprinters will have a chance to shine. One of them is 23-years old Gerlard Ciolek. According his words yesterday he find some winds during last km. Milram is a typical sprint team with great pace setter as Luke Roberts and some not so bad lead out men like Christian Knees. Always the goals of the team are some stage wins as it was during Zabel's time and two years when Petacchi was part of Milram.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 5: Armstrong v Contador Armstrong @ 2.38 - Pinnacle I don't get these odds - on a flat stage like this, where neither of these riders sprint and thus just drift in with the peleton, it's got to be 50/50, right?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July A few small breakaway bets. Not expecting the break to succeed, but there are big odds, and the chase down not always happen, so there's still purpose to this. Also, it helps hone my ability to pick breaks, which is important for later stages where these types of bets will be staked more seriously: Anthony Roux @ 250 Betfair Samuel Dumoulin @ 501 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) Bet365 Yukiya Arashiro @ 151 Betstar Was also keen on Maxime Bouet but no odds.

[Labrador]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July With Farrar's injuries I've looked for Stage matchbets where he can be opposed today. Betfred have Ciolek at 4/6 and Stan James have Samuel Sanchez at a more appealing 11/8. Sanchez finished ahead of Farrar yesterday so at odds against he seems value to do so again today.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

A few small breakaway bets. Not expecting the break to succeed, but there are big odds, and the chase down not always happen, so there's still purpose to this. Also, it helps hone my ability to pick breaks, which is important for later stages where these types of bets will be staked more seriously: Anthony Roux @ 250 Betfair Samuel Dumoulin @ 501 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) Bet365 Yukiya Arashiro @ 151 Betstar Was also keen on Maxime Bouet but no odds.

Arashiro was quoted that he will try a break today, despite his nice sprint skills, he decided not to participate in this year bunches, but to concentrate on break ups. If he is able to get to the finish with a group of breakers will have very nice chances to win! One more very good climber is out because of injuries - Txurruka. Will add a stage winner for Thor Huschovd - 15 at Betfair Proven sprinter, who do not have power yesterday despite good lead up. For sure he became main contender for green jersey and will try to get as much points as he may get.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Stage 5 Gerald Ciolek place Betfair 8.6 With Farrar hurt and Cavendish in not so great form seems a lot of other top sprinters will have a chance to shine. One of them is 23-years old Gerlard Ciolek. According his words yesterday he find some winds during last km. Milram is a typical sprint team with great pace setter as Luke Roberts and some not so bad lead out men like Christian Knees. Always the goals of the team are some stage wins as it was during Zabel's time and two years when Petacchi was part of Milram.

Very nice :clap Ciolek was sprinting very well two years ago and it will be interesting to see if this is a bit of a turnaround for him. First time he's podiumed at the tour since being Cav's leadout man.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 6 Tyler Farrar W bet365 23.00 Another stage for sprinters tomorrow. Farrar seems in far better condition then in Stage 4. I Still think he has the best lead out mans, far better then Cav's guys. Injuries for sure will put back some of the power, but Farrar is great fighter and i am sure he will be in Top 3 tomorrow. Bet365 gave us perfect odds. Today was clear that there are so much teams involved in the daily stages to put away and not to control the breakways. The tomorrow;s profile is flat at all, despite four cat 4 climbs. I expect some better presentation from Freire in the stages after Alps, where some of the top sprinters may hang the bycicle.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Today is a much longer stage and I think the breakaway has a more realistic chance. The sprint is still a more likely outcome, but there are more factors that indicate to me an increased probability of a break succeeding: *HTC do the bulk of the chasing, and must be a bit tired after 2 days. Two tough mountain stages coming up and they may not want to overwork Martin and Rogers. Cav has his win so the pressure has eased somewhat. *Cav's return to form and his large victory margin may deflate the optimism some teams have and they may not work to the same levels to pull back today's break. On the flipside, Lampre might double their efforts as Pettachi might abandon after the first week, and if he does, this will be his last chance. As I said, the sprint is still likely to happen, but just not at the same probabilities of previous stages. With that in mind, I'm going for breakers tonight. This is because their odds have not changed and their chances (IMO) have increased, thus that's where I'll be looking for tonight's value. Ruben Perez @ 401 Bet365 Euskadel have been fairly active in breaks so far this week and though their men are generally better in the mountains they may see this as an opportunity to send one of their weaker climbers in the break. Perez was in a first week break last year and may well do so again today. Yukiya Arashiro @ 501 Bet365 Said he would attack yesterday but didn't. May or may not today but the odds ere are simply impossible to ignore for a man who has a strong sprint, has stated he wants to look for a breaks on a day where I think the break has the best probability so far this tour (of the flat stages) Thomas Voeckler @ 126 Betchoice A perennial breakaway artist who won his first tour stage last year on a flat profile. With Rolland and Fedrigo in the Bbox team I expect these guys will be the main men the team look to put in the breaks, so today could well be TV Tommy's best chance of a win for a few days. Bbox always look for the breaks and it's unusual for Tommy to stay out of the spotlight for so long, so hopefully today he will turn this around.

[gurudave]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Today is a much longer stage and I think the breakaway has a more realistic chance. The sprint is still a more likely outcome, but there are more factors that indicate to me an increased probability of a break succeeding: *HTC do the bulk of the chasing, and must be a bit tired after 2 days. Two tough mountain stages coming up and they may not want to overwork Martin and Rogers. Cav has his win so the pressure has eased somewhat. *Cav's return to form and his large victory margin may deflate the optimism some teams have and they may not work to the same levels to pull back today's break. On the flipside, Lampre might double their efforts as Pettachi might abandon after the first week, and if he does, this will be his last chance. As I said, the sprint is still likely to happen, but just not at the same probabilities of previous stages. With that in mind, I'm going for breakers tonight. This is because their odds have not changed and their chances (IMO) have increased, thus that's where I'll be looking for tonight's value. Ruben Perez @ 401 Bet365 Euskadel have been fairly active in breaks so far this week and though their men are generally better in the mountains they may see this as an opportunity to send one of their weaker climbers in the break. Perez was in a first week break last year and may well do so again today. Yukiya Arashiro @ 501 Bet365 Said he would attack yesterday but didn't. May or may not today but the odds ere are simply impossible to ignore for a man who has a strong sprint, has stated he wants to look for a breaks on a day where I think the break has the best probability so far this tour (of the flat stages) Thomas Voeckler @ 126 Betchoice A perennial breakaway artist who won his first tour stage last year on a flat profile. With Rolland and Fedrigo in the Bbox team I expect these guys will be the main men the team look to put in the breaks, so today could well be TV Tommy's best chance of a win for a few days. Bbox always look for the breaks and it's unusual for Tommy to stay out of the spotlight for so long, so hopefully today he will turn this around.

Good call on Perez. Let's see how long they can stay ahead :clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Good call on Perez. Let's see how long they can stay ahead :clap

They'll get caught with about 8-10km to go IMO. Only three in the break so not enough firepower to stay ahead of a bunch that is determined to make this one a sprint. Break should win a fair few times in the next week or so though so hopefully I can pick them when it counts.

[gurudave]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Yeah the gap is closing very rapidly might even be well before the 10km to go mark. Already down to nearly 2 minutes so closing at 1 minute per 10 km over the last 50km.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Caught at 10km. Pity I can't bet on when my rider gets caught :lol Cancellara looks feisty right now, wonder if he will have a go. 250s on Bet365 so maybe worth a cheeky nibble.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Stage 6 Tyler Farrar W bet365 23.00 Another stage for sprinters tomorrow. Farrar seems in far better condition then in Stage 4. I Still think he has the best lead out mans, far better then Cav's guys. Injuries for sure will put back some of the power, but Farrar is great fighter and i am sure he will be in Top 3 tomorrow. Bet365 gave us perfect odds. Today was clear that there are so much teams involved in the daily stages to put away and not to control the breakways. The tomorrow;s profile is flat at all, despite four cat 4 climbs. I expect some better presentation from Freire in the stages after Alps, where some of the top sprinters may hang the bycicle.

Even though he didn't win, I'm very impressed that you could predict a guy with a broken arm would finish in the top 3 in the sprint.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Caught at 10km. Pity I can't bet on when my rider gets caught :lol Cancellara looks feisty right now, wonder if he will have a go. 250s on Bet365 so maybe worth a cheeky nibble.

He's so loyal to Andy Schlek, and especially without Franck I highly doubt he'll leave his captain.. Now watch him win tomorrow :lol

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Having a look at the stage tomorrow I wouldn't be totally surprised if Cancellara were able to keep yellow. Certainly if he rode to keep it I think he could, but tactically they may look to pass it on. The real question though will be to who. A break I feel will succeed tomorrow so I wonder if someone close-ish might make a play for it. Maybe someone like Christophe Riblon, Sandy Casar or John Gadret :unsure

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Was waiting for some early prices but not many books coming out with their lines. Have seen one that I have to go for though: Pierrick Fedrigo @ 51 Paddy Power Won a stage last year to make it 2 tour stages. He's a decent climber and very aggressive rider. So far we haven't seen him on the attack but there's a strong chance Bbox will be in the break tomorrow and he's a prime candidate. Don't think this price will hold when I wake up in the morning so have taken him now. Will be back tomorrow with a couple of other plays :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Amael Moinard to win Stage 7 - William Hill @ 81.00 (Back) Moinard is a decent climber and one of Cofidis' best bets for the break today. I remember a stage 2-3 years ago where he attacked a long way from the finish. Though he didn't win he was easily first over the mountain and given today's finish is on a mountain he is every chance. Won a recent stage in the Dauphine so clearly in good form. Amael Moinard to win KOTM - Bet365 @ 51.00 (Back) Moinard is a very decent climber and finished 15th in the 2008 tour. Already he has lost 11mins this year so clearly GC isn't his overall objective. He recently won KOTM in Paris Nice this year so it is clear that this classification is something he is willing to target. Taaramae showed in an earlier stage that Cofidis will likely compete for this competition and I really feel that Moinard is a strong choice for them to compete with. I think there's a big chance he will be in the break over the next two stages and collect some strong points. Damiano Cunego to win KOTM - Bet365 @ 17.00 (Back) Cunego is a very long way behind already so he will have the latitude to go into breaks. He is a very good climber and strong sprinter, so if he targets this competition he should win it. He is a little unpredictable but having rode the Giro I'm confident he is here for stage wins, and as Pellizotti has shown, when you are a climber who riders for stage breaks, you'll generally put yourself in the frame for polkas too. And to whoever asked about Rolland, I'd suggest backing him now if you intend to at all. Still 51 with Willhill and may well be in the break either today or tomorrow.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July One more: Alexander Kolobnev @ 36 Sportsbet Kolobnev said earlier this week that he would look for a breakaway opportunity and I think this stage will suit him nicely. It's got several categorized climbs which he can use to ride away from a lot of the other breakaway contenders. He's also got a fairly good finish and strong power, which he can use to advantage over the closing kilometres. Has several strong results in the classic races and World Championships against riders of quality much greater than those I expect to be in the break today.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July 9coconuts, cheers :) If Farrar manage to beat the Alps and Dean recovers as well, the team for sure will score some wins during translation to Pyrinees. Stage 7 Sergei Ivanov 60@betfair Simon Gerrans 67@SJ Simon Spilak 100@betfair (already taken by me at 110-130) Pavel Brut 126@SJ Here is my long list of possible breakway players for today - Sergei Ivanov, Simon Gerrans, Vasil Kiryenka, Mathew Lloyd, Steve Morabito, Rin Taaramae, Simon Spilak, Cunego, Pavel Brut, Moinard, Egoi Martinez and Fedrigo, Jerome Pineaux. Kolobonev is a very nice possibility, he loves such terrain, but probably would not be let by the peleton to join the break - had a very good overall position. But may attack at the end if the escapes would be catch. My selections: Sergei Ivanov already lost 13 mintutes to the leader and will be a clear bird to fly today. The profile perfectly match to him. Russian veteran has 2 Tour de France wins, including one last year, when he made the best sesson in his career winning also Amstel Gold. Simon Gerrans Last year won a stage in Giro and one other at Vuelta. The victory in Italy came in very common stage when Gerrans broke away with big group and was the best in the final summit. Australian is 10 minutes away from Cancelara in GC. Simon Spilak The young Slovenian must help this year to Cunego in his GC fight, but Italian failled to stay with the leaders, so Spilak's forces may be reinforced to other goals. Lampre do not have another GC contender, so they will want stage wins (scored already two thanks to Petacchi) and maybe KOM jersey (Cunego is good contender). One of them for sure will be a stage win. He s very talanted and won this year Tour of Romandie after Valverde DQ. Spilak is 30 minutes plus from the leaders. Great odds for him. Pavel Brutt His only Grand tour win in 2008 Giro was at the same profile hilly stage, beating his breakway rivals at the end. Russian is master of early breaks and if he managed to be in the group of runners has very strong chances to win. Today the profile would not benefit sprinters, to much ups and downs, even the final km is on small uphill.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Ordinarily I'd agree about Kolobnev, but tactically I think their is strategic value in Saxo letting him take yellow. Defending yellow certainly isn't their objective, at least not with it on Swiss shoulders. Agree with your possible list, though I'm not sure if Sky will let Gerrans go, as he would be one of Wiggins' main helpers in the mountains. For what it's worth, my list of likely breakers is: Riblon, Moinard, Taarmae, Fedrigo, Rolland, Voeckler, Martinez, Cunego, Spilak, Barredo, Ivanov, Kolobnev, Kiryienka, Casar, Lloyd, Moreau. In the super unlikely event that a break doesn't win, I actually wouldn't rule out Boasson Hagen to win, but can't see it all coming together. Have had small little bets too on Casar, Ivanov and Spilak.

[Luckatoni]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Any in play bets today?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I had a small go at Boasson Hagen @ 38. Don't think this break will come back but if it does he is a very good chance to stay with the main group and if he does he'll almost certainly be the fastest man left.

[Luckatoni]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I am going for Knees (In Play Bets). I also agree that the will stay in front and knees has purposes set on Yellow Jerseys. The goal for saxo is to defend their main man A. Schleck. I think he has a good chance. Knees winner 8.0 Betfair 3 units

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Having a look at the stage tomorrow I wouldn't be totally surprised if Cancellara were able to keep yellow. Certainly if he rode to keep it I think he could' date=' but tactically they may look to pass it on. The real question though will be to who. A break I feel will succeed tomorrow so I wonder if someone close-ish might make a play for it. Maybe someone like Christophe Riblon, Sandy Casar or John Gadret :unsure[/quote'] Your instincts are sharpening.. Didn't quite spot Chavanel today, but maybe it's coming soon.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July If my instincts are sharpening then they are inversely proportional to profit. It wasn't disastrous, but it wasn't far off: Kolobnev came across with Chavanel and then just dropped back Voeckler, who I have as an anytime stage winner failed to go ahead Cunego who I took for KOTM looked absolutely awful, and will surely not win this competition Moinard who I had for stage and KOTM attacked too late and wasted energy Chavanel moves to 36pts and will be a genuine long term candidate for the KOTM Le Mevel tries to make a few seconds and gets reeled in, showing he has no latitude for even small time gains :unsure:unsure Tomorrow is a much tougher mountain finish. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Chavanel I'm guessing will want to defend yellow, but only holding a minute to Evan and Contador on a category 1 finish wont be easy. The problem is it's hard to know if he will try or not, as the level of the Quickstep chase will determine the break's chance of success. Waiting on Contador odds...

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Quick step seems to dominate at the beginning, very nice tactics by both Pineaux and Chevanel. So much power with Chevanel, never looked so well prepared before and so dominant. I like the way Fedrigo climbs with the big guns. Seems he has something to show. Hope to do it on the big climbs. Tomorrow for sure will be another break at the flat and probably will be with more riders. The favorite teams also will send some guys. Like very much Garate's form. With both Menchov and Gesink (who seems that recovered well) Rabo's once again may enter into the big game. They keep the batery full at the beginning. The Saxo tactics may cause some problems to the team. We saw Voight, O'Grady, Matty Breshel and Cancelara used a lot of force in the first stages. And that may reflect for the future tough stages. Astana showed that may do well in the climbs with De la Fuente and Vino as main captains for Contador. Cadel Evans rides very strongly and also is like to play a major role. Tomorrow will look for Fedrigo's stage victory and some of the Katusha's climbers as well, cos today they decided not to involve into so much breakway chances.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Eros Capecchi finished with that quality group of 36 today even though he didn't have to. Indicates his legs are good at the moment, and at 28 minutes back he might be one for an escape tomorrow. EDIT: Would he be a KOTM possiblity too?