ChrisB Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well the way you have made that post makes it look as if you have found those statements elsewhere. if thats true can you tell me where? i found these informations only in my mind and my knowledge. sorry. :eyes ps : all informations don"t come from my first writing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok let me say something before i try to answer both posts. very soon this is going to get to the point where the only way i am going to be able to answer accurately will also involve me divulging the way that this is done. NOW i realise that you may well believe that there is no way...but the point is that on another thread i have just told someone that i dont want to explain this connundrum right now....soooo i will continue to answer any points until we get too near.i hope you understand No one has asked you to reveal any secrets. However, you made the decision to post your claims about antepost markets in this thread, so it's reasonable to expect people to question them. If you feel you have an edge that you don't want to divulge then that's up to you, but basically you're just posting unsubstantiated claims at the moment. western skies, if i was to only bet on one thing it WOULD have to be value,indeed. If by that you mean that you back more than one outcome on every antepost market, that still doesn't make the price you get any less important. Let me put it to you this way - does it make any difference to you if you back a selection at 50/1 or 1/50? Would you back it at ANY price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) as far as the first point is concerned i was merely pointing out that its hard for me to explain how it is possible to profit without placing value bets without divulging any edge i may or may not have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well,i do accumulator bets-i believe the lowest price i have included in an acca was 1/12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) sorry -bit early for me,misunderstood you are asking if i would back a team at a price that i knew wasnt value.... absolutely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godders Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Interesting thread here, and Moggis, I'm intrigued by your thoughts on value betting. Being a stickler for the laws of mathematics and probability, I, for one, believe that the only way to profit consistently is by betting real value. Moggis - you've said that you would have to bet value on singles, yet you imply you don't have bet value when singles are combined in an accumulator. To break it down simply for me, are you saying you wouldn't back evens or less on the outcome of a coin toss, but would happily take 1.90 on a coin toss and 5.00 on the roll of a dice to get the double at 9.50? If so, why do you perceive the accumulator to be "greater than the sum of its parts" effectively if the singles within the bet don't represent true value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Hi Moggis, I understand that you don't want to divulge the details of your system/method, but is it possible for you to at least tell me what either of the assumptions are that you think I have made? Otherwise it is going to be rather difficult for me to try and add anything further to the conversation. With my current understanding of your methods, and your lack of a requirement for value, I cannot agree with a lot of what you've stated. However, I am more than happy to be persuaded that I am wrong...In my wildest dreams, my value based betting wouldn't even come close to your 80% ROI. I'd think all my Christmases had come at once if I could confidently predict 8%! Given your long term profit, you are obviously not an idiot...Surely you must be able to find a way to demonstrate the reasoning behind your beliefs about value without giving the details of your methods away? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) One last point: well' date='i do accumulator bets-i believe the lowest price i have included in an acca was 1/12[/quote'] I am making another assumption here, but have you posted this because 1/12 is such a short price it can't be value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok where to start? the 1/12 was actually barcelona to win la liga last season. it was part of an acca that wudve won me £108,000 from whill if wigan were rel. no,that is not the reason i mentioned it. i had only just got up and had thought i was being asked if i would bet a 1/50 shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) a couple of points drawsandmore. my 80% figure that i have stated is my prediction for this season based on my experience and ability.each season has different circumstances. the fact that league 2 has a clear favourite and a worthy clear fav. is a big help since normally one doesnt have a clue who the best team is til jan. onwards in that league..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) also you mention my long term profit-may i ask whether you are going by my word or whether you have checked up on me? either way i have to point out that it is POSSIBLE that my wins have come from luck. so,actually i could be either an idiot or deluded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) you definitely have made at least 1 assumption........as i have no doubt that you are smart i really do believe that if i tell you the assumption it will be too big a clue.. i am trying to think of alternative clues /info please bear with me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) godders i wouldnt have to bet value on singles! if i was only allowed to place one bet on antepost markets per year then i would of course have to make it a value bet in order to profit long-term is what i said/meant. i trust this answers your other question-remember i am a professional gambler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) drawsandmore if i could only do singles i would have a hard time matching your 8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godders Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Sorry Moggis, I'm not sure I understand you. You said if you were allowed to only place one bet per year, then you would have to bet value. Are you saying then that the sheer volume of bets that you place, given you're a professional gambler, means that you don't have to worry about betting value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well,if i JUST did a lot of accas on antepost markets i would expect to lose most of my bank each year. its obvious that i must have a way of overcoming the overrounds. so each bet has to well considered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) has to be well cosidered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) i have already stated/implied that none of my bets needs to be value in order for me to profit long-term(unless i am only allowed to place 1 bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) may i suggest that you dont think too hard about how its possible to profit long-term without doing any value bets.....and,instead,try to work out how on earth someone can profit from accas where the overrounds are 130% solve that and you solve the value question:cheers: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) sorry -bit early for me,misunderstood you are asking if i would back a team at a price that i knew wasnt value.... absolutely That's not actually what I asked. I would rephrase my question, but to be honest I think this discussion is becoming pretty redundant now. well,if i JUST did a lot of accas on antepost markets i would expect to lose most of my bank each year. its obvious that i must have a way of overcoming the overrounds. so each bet has to well considered. i have already stated/implied that none of my bets needs to be value in order for me to profit long-term(unless i am only allowed to place 1 bet) may i suggest that you dont think too hard about how its possible to profit long-term without doing any value bets.....and,instead,try to work out how on earth someone can profit from accas where the overrounds are 130% solve that and you solve the value question:cheers: This is where I have a bit of an issue. PL is a forum for discussing ideas and sharing strategies. It isn't a place where we dangle random unsubstantiated claims in front of each other and then invite everyone to guess what we're up to if they are clever enough. That's what the Betfair forum is for. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) point taken.but let me try to defend myself a bit.... actually first i would be grateful if you could let me know what exactly is unsubstantiated? is there anything in particular you would like me to substantiate(if thats a word?) what happened was that i saw one or more people state as a FACT that its impossible to profit in the long term without betting value. i intended to give an example that would prove this to be false. i emailed a friend of mine who also works in the industry in order to check with him that my example did in fact demonstrate that i was right and to go through what questions i would be asked. my friend was subsequently convinced that i was right...BUT advised me not to give the example to you. i took his advice but then i had the problem of having started something that i cant use a clear example to finish. thank you for your input and i apologise for annoying you. i will now reread your post to see if there was anything else,and then,assuming you do not wish for me to substantiate anything i will say goodbye all and good luck with all your bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) looks like the only other point is the 50-1 or 1/50 question. right i think i get the point. you are effectively asking a hypothetical question...so the hypothetical answer is no it wouldnt matter in certain circumstances. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Hi Moggis, Last night I had typed out a very long reply to the various responses that you had made to me, unfortunately the comp. crashed before posting, and quite frankly I don't have the will to go through it all again. Suffice to say that Western Skies has said everything far more eloquentlly than I could...Neither of us think you are an idiot...I do however think you are wrong, but in the absence of any real argument from you, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Substantiate is a word, but sadly you have not been able to substantiate your lack of value theory for me...I am not disputing your incredible profits, or the way you bet (accas, antepost or anything else), but to persuade me I am going to need cold, hard, proveable facts...Without them, I'm afraid that I will remain a sceptic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) point taken.but let me try to defend myself a bit.... actually first i would be grateful if you could let me know what exactly is unsubstantiated? is there anything in particular you would like me to substantiate(if thats a word?) what happened was that i saw one or more people state as a FACT that its impossible to profit in the long term without betting value. i intended to give an example that would prove this to be false. i emailed a friend of mine who also works in the industry in order to check with him that my example did in fact demonstrate that i was right and to go through what questions i would be asked. my friend was subsequently convinced that i was right...BUT advised me not to give the example to you. i took his advice but then i had the problem of having started something that i cant use a clear example to finish. thank you for your input and i apologise for annoying you. i will now reread your post to see if there was anything else,and then,assuming you do not wish for me to substantiate anything i will say goodbye all and good luck with all your bets. Drawsandmore has pretty much explained it. Without an explanation of your strategy in the antepost markets, your claims aren't verifiable by anyone and so the discussion becomes pointless. You certainly haven't annoyed me or anyone else as far as I am aware, so I'm not sure why you're leaving. My point was simply that a thread about the general pinciples of value betting had been turned into a guessing game about a strategy which you have yourself admitted might just be down to luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) one or more people state as a FACT that its impossible to profit in the long term without betting value I think it comes down to your definition of "value" and "value betting". "value" is the difference between what you get and what you should be getting. This thread is about identifying "value" in each bet you make and have that aspect be part of the selection process. This method of selecting bets is called "value betting" and is something quite distinct from "value" itself. I agree you don't need to do "value betting" to be profitable. You do not need to identify value on each individual bet in order to have a profitable strategy, there are other selection processes. There you may not identify value with each bet but you do need to have it in order to make profit. That however is the subject of another thread, another day. Regardless of method, you cannot have profit without "value". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) And to think this was a great thread put up by Jens once :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok lets wrap this up. i am extremely pleased that none of you believe me. i am very much aware of how incredibly fortunate i am that i am able to make a living betting on a market that intelligent,clued up people like yourselves tend to ignore(apart from when you believe you have found a value bet,which,as i have said,is not often). it AMAZES me that there appears to be nothing on the internet about how to do these bets. JASE 82 i am inclined to think that your comment was uncalled for unless it was based on your belief that it is obviously impossible to profit without doing value bets. datapunter,it is posts like yours that made me post on this thread in the first place!! thank you for the lesson.just for the record,it took me several years to work out how EXACTLY i was able to profit form these bets and the reason it took so long is because i,of course,also was certain that i had to somehow be finding value. western skies,i have spent a great deal of time reading threads on this excellent site and i have made several posts.since antepost accas are my bread and butter and since i have been advised not to tell you how its done,i doubt that i will have much more to say. also i am now going to read all the other forums i can find,thats really why i am effectively leaving. NB i need to point out that it is only the sheer amount of my winnings that i state could be luck.at the beginning of may 2004 i had only £2000 to my name,since then £1,500,000 has passed through my bank account.i have absolutely NO DOUBT AT ALL that the strategy works like a dream.this season it is almost certain because of this strategy,that i will be in a position on the last day of the season to either win a 6 figure some OR lose perhaps £20,000(on the other hand i may well have guaranteed a profit!) it is only the events on this last day that will decide the final amount i win or lose. but the strategy will get me there... i can only repeat that i never intended to turn this into a guessing game about strategy, i only needed to provide examples that demonstrate how it could be done. i had already stated that it was possible to make profits without having placed any bets that were value SO i felt i had to explain that as best i could in the circumstances. and,finally,drawsandmore,i would have been most interested to see your reply. yes i am well aware that i have not substantiated my lack of value theory. as i have indicated,it is probably much,much better for me that i havnt. i am impressed that you use the word skeptic rather than claim that it is a fact that i am wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok lets wrap this up. i am extremely pleased that none of you believe me. i am very much aware of how incredibly fortunate i am that i am able to make a living betting on a market that intelligent,clued up people like yourselves tend to ignore(apart from when you believe you have found a value bet,which,as i have said,is not often). it AMAZES me that there appears to be nothing on the internet about how to do these bets. JASE 82 i am inclined to think that your comment was uncalled for unless it was based on your belief that it is obviously impossible to profit without doing value bets. datapunter,it is posts like yours that made me post on this thread in the first place!! thank you for the lesson.just for the record,it took me several years to work out how EXACTLY i was able to profit form these bets and the reason it took so long is because i,of course,also was certain that i had to somehow be finding value. western skies,i have spent a great deal of time reading threads on this excellent site and i have made several posts.since antepost accas are my bread and butter and since i have been advised not to tell you how its done,i doubt that i will have much more to say. also i am now going to read all the other forums i can find,thats really why i am effectively leaving. NB i need to point out that it is only the sheer amount of my winnings that i state could be luck.at the beginning of may 2004 i had only £2000 to my name,since then £1,500,000 has passed through my bank account.i have absolutely NO DOUBT AT ALL that the strategy works like a dream.this season it is almost certain because of this strategy,that i will be in a position on the last day of the season to either win a 6 figure some OR lose perhaps £20,000(on the other hand i may well have guaranteed a profit!) it is only the events on this last day that will decide the final amount i win or lose. but the strategy will get me there... i can only repeat that i never intended to turn this into a guessing game about strategy, i only needed to provide examples that demonstrate how it could be done. i had already stated that it was possible to make profits without having placed any bets that were value SO i felt i had to explain that as best i could in the circumstances. and,finally,drawsandmore,i would have been most interested to see your reply. yes i am well aware that i have not substantiated my lack of value theory. as i have indicated,it is probably much,much better for me that i havnt. i am impressed that you use the word skeptic rather than claim that it is a fact that i am wrong. Ok, here goes, if he won't call you wrong, I happily will. I am a Mathematician, genuinely, and there is mathematical proof that, in the limit, the only way to win money is to bet on odds that are longer than they should be. It's that simple. It's not debatable. 'In the limit' means as the number of bets placed becomes incredibly large (in layman's terms). The actual time for convergence of this limit depends on the average odds on which you bet, but as long as you place sufficiently many bets, you will not make money if you haven't found value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwtw Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Additionally, pointing out a winning record over 7 seasons of antepost bets (regardless of the absolute monetary returns...which I am very skeptical of for obvious reason) is worthless. Say you have 10 bets a season, over 7 seasons, that's a sample of 70. Considering antepost bets are generally long odds, that sample size is negligible at best. Anyone who predicts that they will be making 80% ROI going forward in fairly efficient markets is either lying or deluded about their own abilities. If the sums of money you're stating are true, it's the latter...think about it for a minute (again, assuming what you say is true) - is Will Hill going to be happy laying £20k bets to someone they believe to be a winning long-term punter. Also the idea that someone is a professional 'antepost acca' backer is laughable. I feel I'm stating the obvious here but you're either making this all up or you've just gotten extremely lucky. imo from what you've posted there is no way you are a winning bettor long-term. I feel like I'm getting trolled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) in another thread on this forum, Moggis was talking something about 'a 75% chance I will reveal the secret to my antepost bet by this time next year'. i could be wrong, but his whole manner of speaking strikes a keen resemblance to that guy who got banned a few months ago for going on and on about "Slicer's Bet", not offering any actual proof of a system, but endlessly defending himself (turned out he e-mailed a ton of ppl just after he got banned trying to sell the 'system' for 10$). ..I'll go even further to say he might be 'arguing with himself to create interest' by operating several PL usernames at once.. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but it does strike a resemblance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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