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Tennis > 10-16 May


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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Three selections for me today... Madrid - John Isner vs Christophe Rochus John Isner -4 games AH at 1.917 (Pinnacle) Isner has made remarkable strides on the clay this year and now looks really comfortable on it. He made the final of Belgrade last week where he lost in three to Sam Querrey. Fatigue could be a slight issue here but I feel the big American will have too much for Rochus here. There's a huge gap in height for starters - Isner is 6'9', Rochus 5'7'. I think the Belgian will find it very difficult to live with the American's serve. The courts here are quick, mainly because of the high altitude. Some of the courts are also virtually indoor, although I'm not 100% sure about some of the lower numbered ones. Even still, Isner is on red-hot form and is a class above Rochus. He beat the Belgian 6-1 6-4 on a hard court last year and although Rochus prefers the clay to a hard court, the Belgian's form has been limited. Came through the qualifying, but has been on the Challenger Tour of late playing players far less superior to Isner. Really like this bet, happy to go for it. Bet strength: 8/10 Madrid - Mikhail Youzhny vs Lukas Lacko Under 20 games AH at 1.901 (Pinnacle) With Youzhny is such good form on the clay at the moment, you've got to fancy him to take this match comfortably here. I see potential in Lacko, but not on this surface. This is only his second match on it this year and he showed his weaknesses on the red brick against Pere Riba last week, losing 5-7 6-1 6-2. He hasn't got his movement or timing sorted out on it and Youzhny, who is returning serve brilliantly at the moment, should be able to pick him off. They met on a hard court in Dubai early this year and Lacko took him to three, but the Slovak is not nearly as effective on this surface. Youzhny won Munich last week and swept aside players such as Jan Hajek, Andreas Beck and Jeremy Chardy in under 20 games - all better clay courters than Lacko. I can't see the Russian hanging about here and with this line better priced than the -5 game handicap, I'm willing to play it. Bet strength: 6/10 Madrid - Marcel Granollers vs Stanislas Wawrinka Under 21 games AH at 2.10 (Pinnacle) Cracking odds on this line and one that I'd expect to be covered. Wawrinka is a class above Granollers in every department. The Spaniard is a good doubles player and prefers it on the clay, but Wawrinka has the ability to move him out of his comfort zone and punish his foibles on serve. The Swiss got to R3 here last year so he has ranking points to defend. He's been solid on clay all year, making the semis in Belgrade last week and the quarters in Rome. The handicap is set at -4.5, which is acceptable, but for that to be feasibly covered, Wawrinka will need to win this in two sets. I feel the Swiss is too good for Granollers on this surface and I reckon he can cover this line. Bet strength: 4/10 I also had a wee think about Paul-Henri Mathieu, who is too big a price in my eyes against Eduardo Schwank, but Mathieu needs to show me he can win games again. In the end, he probably best watched. Good luck :hope

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I like Nalbandian today to beat Berdych (1.83 @ beted.com) (8/10 Units), he has 4-1 record vs the Czech and is coming off a strong showing in his last tournament with wins over Tommy Robredo and Mikhail Youzhny on Clay. Good Luck

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Just checked out Riba's record at Tour' date=' Challenger and Future level against lefties - he's got a record of W7 L11. Bellucci should be more than able to take care of Riba. I've decided to follow you on this one, [b']6/10 confidence. Fingers crossed. You can get 1.80 with Boyles.
Made to sweat in that first set but came through in the end, good win.
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport Tennis
Event Tomas Berdych v David Nalbandian
Selection Tomas Berdych
Strength 10/10
Date 11/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 1.92 (Back)
Reasoning Following the money here with Berdych price coming in. Nalbandian back after a few weeks out with a hamstring problem as well as his dodgy hip. He was playing pretty well before the injury, but never looked 100% and could be exposed by some real power here. Berdych is having a good year, not so good the past weeks but he can definately play on clay. Think there is still a bit of value in this price.
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Just checked out Riba's record at Tour' date=' Challenger and Future level against lefties - he's got a record of W7 L11. Bellucci should be more than able to take care of Riba. I've decided to follow you on this one, [b']6/10 confidence. Fingers crossed. You can get 1.80 with Boyles.
Three selections for me today... Madrid - John Isner vs Christophe Rochus John Isner -4 games AH at 1.917 (Pinnacle) Isner has made remarkable strides on the clay this year and now looks really comfortable on it. He made the final of Belgrade last week where he lost in three to Sam Querrey. Fatigue could be a slight issue here but I feel the big American will have too much for Rochus here. There's a huge gap in height for starters - Isner is 6'9', Rochus 5'7'. I think the Belgian will find it very difficult to live with the American's serve. The courts here are quick, mainly because of the high altitude. Some of the courts are also virtually indoor, although I'm not 100% sure about some of the lower numbered ones. Even still, Isner is on red-hot form and is a class above Rochus. He beat the Belgian 6-1 6-4 on a hard court last year and although Rochus prefers the clay to a hard court, the Belgian's form has been limited. Came through the qualifying, but has been on the Challenger Tour of late playing players far less superior to Isner. Really like this bet, happy to go for it. Bet strength: 8/10 Madrid - Mikhail Youzhny vs Lukas Lacko Under 20 games AH at 1.901 (Pinnacle) With Youzhny is such good form on the clay at the moment, you've got to fancy him to take this match comfortably here. I see potential in Lacko, but not on this surface. This is only his second match on it this year and he showed his weaknesses on the red brick against Pere Riba last week, losing 5-7 6-1 6-2. He hasn't got his movement or timing sorted out on it and Youzhny, who is returning serve brilliantly at the moment, should be able to pick him off. They met on a hard court in Dubai early this year and Lacko took him to three, but the Slovak is not nearly as effective on this surface. Youzhny won Munich last week and swept aside players such as Jan Hajek, Andreas Beck and Jeremy Chardy in under 20 games - all better clay courters than Lacko. I can't see the Russian hanging about here and with this line better priced than the -5 game handicap, I'm willing to play it. Bet strength: 6/10 Madrid - Marcel Granollers vs Stanislas Wawrinka Under 21 games AH at 2.10 (Pinnacle) Cracking odds on this line and one that I'd expect to be covered. Wawrinka is a class above Granollers in every department. The Spaniard is a good doubles player and prefers it on the clay, but Wawrinka has the ability to move him out of his comfort zone and punish his foibles on serve. The Swiss got to R3 here last year so he has ranking points to defend. He's been solid on clay all year, making the semis in Belgrade last week and the quarters in Rome. The handicap is set at -4.5, which is acceptable, but for that to be feasibly covered, Wawrinka will need to win this in two sets. I feel the Swiss is too good for Granollers on this surface and I reckon he can cover this line. Bet strength: 4/10 I also had a wee think about Paul-Henri Mathieu, who is too big a price in my eyes against Eduardo Schwank, but Mathieu needs to show me he can win games again. In the end, he probably best watched. Good luck :hope
Bellucci d. Riba 7-6 6-1 - WIN Isner d. Rochus 5-7 6-2 6-2 - WIN Youzhny d. Lacko 2-6 6-3 6-1 - LOSS Wawrinka d. Granollers 6-4 6-4 - WIN 3/4 and the big one on Isner came up. Decent day's profit. @ marron - another good shout on Bellucci, although he wobbled a bit in that first set :unsure He got there in the end though.
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport Tennis
Event Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Selection Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Strength 10/10
Date 12/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.50 (Back)
Reasoning I'm willing to go for Tsonga here. He's adapting well to the clay and bringing this style to the surface really well. Garcia-Lopez has been playing well and at home will be up for this. But I think this will be a bad match up for him. He doesn't defend well, and I just see Tsonga dominating most of the rallies.
Sport Tennis
Event Serena Williams v Nadia Petrova
Selection Nadia Petrova
Strength 10/10
Date 12/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 2.88 (Back)
Reasoning Have to try going against Serena. She won an epic match against Dushevina in what was her longest match ever. Physically she was really struggling and a better (smarter) play would have beaten her comfortably. Serena made an incredible effort in that game, and it's tough to see her doing that again. Petrova seems to be coming back into some form and has a couple of decent wins already this week. H2H is 3-2 to Serena which is actually pretty decent for Petrova, and all of Serenas wins have been tough match (apart from 1 retirement).
Sport Tennis
Event Ernests Gulbis v Mikhail Youzhny
Selection Ernests Gulbis
Strength 10/10
Date 12/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning Going for Gulbis again. He seems to be playing well and took over Montanes without too many problems. Could be a good spot to get against Youzhny too. He had a pretty tough weekend, ended up taking the title. Then had to come back from a set down against Lacko. Lacko doesn't have the game to really hurt Youzhny, but Gulbis does. Youzhny will have to be really sharp in this match and I think he will struggle.
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May 7pts Victor Hanescu to beat Daniel Munoz-De La Nava 2-0 at 4/5 with Paddy Power I dont understand these odds. Yes, Munoz-De La Nava beat Querry in the last round but the American is nowhere near as comfortable on clay as Hanescu. The Spaniard qualified fairly comfortably to reach the first round match with Querry but is ranked 315th in the world and usually struggles to beat players outside the top 100 on the lower tour circuits. Hanescu has beaten players such as Monaco, Gasquet and Chela on this surface recently whilst competing well with the likes of Bellucci and Wawrinka too. Fair enough, he was struggling against Andreev in the first round before the Russian retired but surely he wont have many better chances to reach the third stage of a tournament like this again. Happy to take Hanescu, an experienced clay courter, to beat this inexperienced qualifier. Staked the same as Bellucci because the opponent is coming in with confidence and i dont now a huge amount about his game.

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Agree with Cramer on Tsonga. Usually don't like taking less than 1.6 but expected Tsonga to be 1-3-1.4 here so will go with it. Tsonga to beat Garcia-Lopez @ 1/2(P Power: 8/10) Leads h2h 2-0 with both on hard court(all in straights).I'd say both prefer a fast surface but I think Tsonga is improving on dirt.........has beaten Almagro twice, Hajek, Troicki and Giraldo on clay this year....not too bad...losing to Ferrero,De Bakker(had an inspired tournament in Barca) and Ferrer in 1/4 final of Rome. No disgrace really. His serve should do well on the Madrid surface and I think he can outrally GGL......sometimes lacks patience on clay and doesn't construct points so well but ocassional signs that he is improving I think. GGL has recovered some form in recent months and reached the semi's in Estoril last week losing to Gil, and beat Gimeno-Traver in 2 in the last round here but still lost to many decent to good players on claY recently like Petshczhner(can't spell his name!), Serra. I give clear advantages to Tsonga here....only drawback being that he hasn't played yet but I think the conditions might suit him pretty well. Nadal vs Dolgopolov UNDER 17.5 games @ 8/11(Paddy Power: 4/10) Fancy Nadal to take him to the clearners tomorrow.Dolgopolov is a good player...followed him last year and he had some great runs on clay at challenger level running into early this year winning some events. ATP tour is hugely different though.....the positive for him is that he's won 3 games here already...two of those against Seppi and Fish but losses in recent weeks to Klizan,Benneteau, Lopez, Hajek and Benneteau gives a fair indication of his level. Plays aggressive stuff and might come out swinging tomorrow...who knows he could serve well and hit winners from everywhere but my guess is that Rafa is comfortable on most service games and gets a look in on most of his. What needs to be said about him....won Monte Carlo and Rome...lost the final here last year to Federer....in great form....I think he can pummel Dolgopolov in at leasty one set..something like 6-1 so hopefully no hiccups and he could cover this. GL!

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Bellucci and Isner also stood out at first glance. Not touching Bellucci/Monaco though.....has a tough match written all over it I think. Isner is not your typical clay-courter but it's a 50:50 match against Giraldo....I like Giraldo but wonder how he deals with Isner..and I wouldn't consider his serve as a strong point.

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Schwank +4.5 1.72 vs Cilic Upset in the making? I feel the claycourter Schwank will hold this handicap and possibly beat Cilic. Pretty simple reasoning: Cilic played in Munich with usual difficulties on clay and have not convinced in any claymatch yet. Schwank has been ok and got his ranking back on track from a dismal last season where he had bad form and his compatriot Maximo Gonzalez where seen more often on tour. Now it's the opposite. QF in Barcelona was ok for Schwank and decent results in SA swing. Roddick to beat Lopez 2-1 3.75 I see this as very similar to last season when Roddick had not played any matches on clay and came to Madrid and defeated Haas after losing first set and winning tie break in second after Haas had 2 matchpoints. Haas and Lopez are very similar players and we all know the courts of Madrid are fast and Roddick knows that he always have a good chance in this tournament to go far like QF as he did last year where he took a set of eventual winner Federer. Lopez was ok in Rome and he's on home soil but Roddick still has a good form and he dominates Lopez in h2h so he should have enough to proceed. All meetings have come on hard before so this is their first on clay. To compare a similar matchup with a player dominating another on hard and then meeting on clay: James Blake vs Nikolay Davydenko: Blake have dominated Davy on hard and they met first time on clay in Estoril last season. As we all know Davy is formidable on clay but not Blake and Blakes ranking was going down then but still he won and lost the final to Montanes. Ferrer vs Baghdatis under 20.5 games 1.80 H2h, first on clay - Three on hard. Ferrer winning two, Baggy last one. Ferrer outstanding on clay, opposite for Baggy who was ok in Munich but not very likely he has a chance here. Very likely that Ferrer playing in Spain will dominate and take an easy win, breaking once in each set. Fourfold with At Madrid corner handicap -1 2.10 (not asian) vs Fulham Reasoning explained in Europa league final thread. Pays 24.48 @ bet365 - Bet of the day maybe?

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Lopez - Roddick: Roddick win - 8 pts - 1.61 Pinnacle H2H is 6-0 for Roddick. Lopez won in first round against Kubot 6-3, 6-3. I saw this match and Lopez didn't play well. Roddick didn't play since march (he won in miami on hard). Roddick has good stats on clay 73-38. Both player are big servers, but Roddick has better percentage on serve. That's why I think Roddick is going to win today. :hope:hope

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Really good day by all involved yesterday. Good to see more and more punters having a go. Plenty of nice write-ups again today, hopefully the success bandwagon can continue to roll. Here's my four selections... Madrid - Andy Murray vs Juan Ignacio Chela Under 21 games AH at 1.971 (Pinnacle) I think this is the perfect match for Murray to get back to winning ways. He's got a 3-1 H2H record with Chela - lost to him in Oz many years ago but has since them beaten him comfortably, especially in their last meeting at Roland Garros last year. Chela's a player in decline. He's got nous round the court but he hasn't got enough power to hurt good defensive players, of which Murray is one. His serve can be brittle and I expect Murray to pick up on that. The Scot himself hasn't been playing well but got to R3 in Rome before meeting David Ferrer. He beat Andreas Seppi on the way and I see Chela as a similar opponent, a guy who hits the spots but with no real power. I'm pretty sure Murray will see Chela as an ideal opponent here and with the odds on the -4 line way too short at 1.77, I'm more than happy to chance the under 21-game line at a fairly decent price. Bet strength: 7/10 Madrid - Philipp Petzschner vs Gael Monfils Gael Monfils -3.5 games AH at 1.847 (Pinnacle) Would've ideally wanted a better price for this one but it's still in my remit so I'm taking it. Petzschner had an almightly wobble against Fabio Fognini yesterday. He really should have lost that match as the Italian choked when serving for it. The German has improved on clay this year but he's up against one of the surface's Top 15 in my opinion. I watched his match with Stephane Robert and he looked fit and was hitting the ball well. He's got the stamina and speed to get to Petzschner's backhand slice drop-shot, which the German loves to play. They've met twice before on hard courts, each winning one encounter, but Monfils is the more comfortable of the two on clay. Reckon the Frenchman has too much for Petzschner here. Bet strength: 4/10 Madrid - Double Jurgen Melzer (vs Mardy Fish) x Robin Soderling (vs Nicolas Almagro) at 2.14 (Pinnacle) Small stakes are the order of the day here but I reckon this double is worth a play. I originally considered Melzer-Fish U22 games but they've gone the distance in all of their encounters. Melzer leads 3-1 though and has beaten him on clay twice before. Fish played into the small hours last night against Michael Russell and I wonder if he'll be ready for this. He was complaining of a sore back and hasn't really got the game for clay. Melzer should be able to break him down here as he moves better and has a greater array of shots. I've taken this with Pinnacle as if Fish retires (and that might happen with a dodgy back) then it'll be classed as a Melzer win on the coupon if they've played more than a set. As for Soderling, he is the riskier of the two but I reckon he'll come through this. The Swede leads the H2H 3-1 and is a genuine Top 10 player. Almagro struggles against these sorts of opponents - mentally, he doesn't play crucial points well and will find Soderling's flat shots very tough to deal with. The Swede has had a good rest since Rome and will want a good week ahead of the French. Almagro's been serving poorly recently and should've been taken closer by Viktor Troicki in R1, who had lots of chances to break. Happy that both Melzer and Soderling should be in R3. Bet strength: 3/10 Madrid - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Jo Wilfried Tsonga to win 2-0 at 2.180 (Pinnacle) I can't really add more than IAmGooner and Cramer have said above. This looks a bad match-up for Garcia-Lopez. The Spaniard has been playing well but he's picking off guys ranked beneath him - he seems to struggle when he takes on the top players. I don't expect Tsonga to romp either set but I do feel he's got enough to take this in straights. His big serve will work well on the quicker clay and he's got the forehand to break Garcia-Lopez down. IAmGooner mentioned the Spaniard's not the best at defending and I agree. He doesn't like being penned back and that's what Tsonga will do to him. The Frenchman has beaten him in straight sets the two times they've met, which suggests to me Tsonga has worked out pretty quickly how to take care of him. There's a risk involved here so I'm lowering the stakes but the price is good and the logic makes sense to me. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :hope

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

7pts Victor Hanescu to beat Daniel Munoz-De La Nava 2-0 at 4/5 with Paddy Power I dont understand these odds. Yes, Munoz-De La Nava beat Querry in the last round but the American is nowhere near as comfortable on clay as Hanescu. The Spaniard qualified fairly comfortably to reach the first round match with Querry but is ranked 315th in the world and usually struggles to beat players outside the top 100 on the lower tour circuits. Hanescu has beaten players such as Monaco, Gasquet and Chela on this surface recently whilst competing well with the likes of Bellucci and Wawrinka too. Fair enough, he was struggling against Andreev in the first round before the Russian retired but surely he wont have many better chances to reach the third stage of a tournament like this again. Happy to take Hanescu, an experienced clay courter, to beat this inexperienced qualifier. Staked the same as Bellucci because the opponent is coming in with confidence and i dont now a huge amount about his game.
Comfortably won the 1st set 6-0 but lost the 2nd 6-4. Loss.
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I like the odds for Mardy Fish vs Melzer (3/10 Units) this morning. While Melzer has a 3-1 record vs Fish, all the matches have been very competitive. FIsh's win came on clay but it was back in 2003 so I dont really put that much stock in it. However, 3.25 (BETED.COM) on a quality player like Fish is in my opinion good value. Good luck

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Btw watching the teniis matches with Hungarian commentators is pretty amusing... I mean they sound like they are having a great time. All I can make out is: Hungarian, Hungarian, Hungarian, Mike Tyson, Hungarian, HA HA HA, some more Hungarian, Kournikova, Lindsey Lohan, Hungarian, President Obama, Hungarian, Hungarian (I could have sworn I heard Keyser Soze)..... Man I need a translator because I would love to figure out what they are saying

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May 4pts Robin Soderling -2.5 games to beat Nicolas Almagro at 10/11 with Paddy Power There is no doubt that Almagro is comfortable on this surface but i have doubts about him when he comes up against the better players. This season has has beaten the likes of Anderson, Greul, Chardy on clay but has then gone on to be beaten by Tsonga twice, Cillic and Ljubicic. Soderling showed everyone how capable he is against anyone on clay when having a great run at the French Open last year. This season he has reached the fnal in Barcelona before losing to Verdasco and also lost to Wawrinka in Rome but both of those defeats are no disgrace considering both are top players. He has had a good rest since Rome and will want to have a good run here before aiming to do well once again at Roland Garros.

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May safarova vs dulghuru any information i like safarove she had a good run at rome losing to sanchez in a game she could have won she hits the ball nicely and serves well dont know much about dulghuru but i would imagine the evens on safarova is too good

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Btw watching the teniis matches with Hungarian commentators is pretty amusing... I mean they sound like they are having a great time. All I can make out is: Hungarian, Hungarian, Hungarian, Mike Tyson, Hungarian, HA HA HA, some more Hungarian, Kournikova, Lindsey Lohan, Hungarian, President Obama, Hungarian, Hungarian (I could have sworn I heard Keyser Soze)..... Man I need a translator because I would love to figure out what they are saying
Haven't heard hungarian but this is comedy gold from the Arabic Federer lover!
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Looks like Tsonga is gonna kill us Atko. Fishy match with his price rising beforehand....now down a double break early on and hitting the ball a metre or two wide a few times. I'm counting it as a loss and turning it off.....see if he surprises me later but I doubt it. Baghy killing Ferrer aswell........where's the logic......:lol

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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Looks like Tsonga is gonna kill us Atko. Fishy match with his price rising beforehand....now down a double break early on and hitting the ball a metre or two wide a few times. I'm counting it as a loss and turning it off.....see if he surprises me later but I doubt it. Baghy killing Ferrer aswell........where's the logic......:lol
At work mate so only watching the scoreboard, not looking good though, especially when he had four break points to make it 1-1. Bizarrely, even if Tsonga doesn't do it in straight sets, I'll have still made a profit with only one winner, as the Murray yield is big enough to absorb the two smaller losses. Thank goodness for that. Still think Tsonga will win, but perhaps not in straights.
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Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Just switched it back on(impossible not to when you have cash on it) and Tsonga is on the ground getting back treatment...... a retirement would be welcome to be honest......:$....he was clearly not right early on and still getting numerous chances to break GGL......:lol....can't serve today though. Edit: he's back on......:puke

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