Tennis 3-9 May

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Roger Federer vs. Arnaud Clement
Selection	Clement (+6.5) GH (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	07/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Clay has never been Roger Federer's best surface, that is a sure thing and to offer this line handicap against a player like Arnaud Clement is a litter bit exaggerated IMO. Clement doesn't play his best tennis on clay too but he has the game to trouble Federer, his deffensive skills speak about that. There are no doubts about the fact that Federer can always cover this line handicap, even playing against more difficult players but in everything exist a probability. If we'll take a look to the results between Federer and Clement we could see that most of the games have been quite tight ones, they have never played on clay but today we'll see. Federer has played his first game here at Estoril against Phau, game where he didn't looked too inspired and where also he didn't covered the line. Motivation for Federer is surely high certain here at Estoril as he wants this title but this is not a enough fact to think that he will cover the line. Federer has always been a player who do not pressure too much as other top players do, his game style is more relaxed as he don't fight for every single point trying to be as most stable from the back as Nadal do. IMO Clement could be a quite difficult task for Federer here as I have mentionated he has those qualities in the defence to pressure his opponent for one more shot, he can take some advantages because of his more stable backhand if to compare with other players. So, all in all this line handicap is exaggerated IMO as clay is not Federer's best surface, his game style is much more relaxed than other top players and also Clement is the type of player like Baghdatis who has won recently against Federer. Good Luck!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Wasn't the best day for a lot of people yesterday, so here's hoping quarter-final day in the men's events bring some success. Munich - Jan Hajek vs Mikhail Youzhny Under 20 games AH at 1.99 (Pinnacle) I like Youzhny to win here but the -5 handicap is a bit too prohibitive, especially at odds of 1.943. If he's to feasibly cover that handicap he'll have to do it in under 20 games, so I reckon that line is the value call here. This is a tournament Youzhny does well in. He got to the final last year and is finding his form now on the clay. Hajek's also having quite a good clay court swing but the guys he has beaten are not in the same quality postcode as Youzhny. The Russian obliterated his opponent 6-2 6-1 6-1 in Melbourne earlier this year and although that was on a hard court, it shows that Hajek's game is one that he matches up well against. Happy to back this line here. Bet strength: 7/10 Estoril - Albert Montanes vs Pablo Cuevas Under 22 games AH at 1.98 (Pinnacle) I feel the line is too big here. Both men are accustomed to each other's game, having met twice this year already (one win apiece, 2-2 in H2H total record), but Montanes is the better player. This is a tournament that he won last year and in his last match, against Gimeno-Traver, he wiped the floor with him. Cuevas has been patchy here so far. His serve, one of his weapons, hasn't been firing as it usually does, and he's not shown the form at all this year that saw him break on to the clay court scene at the tail end of last year. The Montanes -3 line was appealing but the price has decayed to 1.775 - too short for a handicap for me. History shows that 3/4 meeting between these players has gone under this line. I feel Montanes will probably have enough to win comfortably enough here. Line is worth a play. Bet strength: 5/10 Good luck to all :hope

Youzhny d. Hajek 6-1 6-3 - WIN Montanes d. Cuevas 6-4 6-3 - WIN Much better today with 2/2 coming in on bigger stakes.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ana Ivanovic v Marie Jose Sanchez Martinez
Selection	Lay Marie Jose Sanchez Martinez (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	07/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.54 (Lay)
Reasoning	Easy to go for Ivanovic here. I've watched a bit of her this week and she's looked excellent. Helped by injury to Azarenka but she looks like getting some confidence back and playing great. MJSM is a good player, win over Wozniacki who is maybe not 100% yet, but I think Ivanovic will come through.

[mniXo]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Cilic - Almagro: Cilic win - 6 pts - 2.00 5Dimes H2H is 1-0 for Cilic (on hard). Cilic won in Munich with Greul and Berrer. Almagro won with Anderson and Vliegen. Both played hard match in last round. Both player have strong serve. If Cilic will play he did at the end of the third set against Greul, he will win. Cilic won last 16 matches from 17 vs big servers. Almagro only 5 from 11. That's why I think Cilic will win today. Gil - Machado: Machado win - 6 pts - 2.12 Pinnacle H2H is 1-0 for Gil (on clay, but in 2009). Machado is no. 1 in Portugal and Gil no. 2. Machado and Gil have the same coach. Gil is favourite in this match, but still they know each other very well and odds for Machado win are very good. I think Machcado is likely winner in this match. :hope:hope

Cilic - Almagro WIN +6.00 pts Gil - Machado LOST -6.00 pts Today 0.00 pts. :eek

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May Bagh was terrific today... he trashed Kolhshreiber, with powerfull and agressive game As i said in previous threads, this is the receipe for this surface Players with powerfull-agressive game have advantage, despite what was the public opinion so far. Bagh really scared Kolhie with his powerfull game, tremendous shots, astonishing power. He ruined also, all theories claiming that he is poor clay courter Today he was top, and my bet is that tomorrow he will beat CILIC I WAIT TO SEE odds cheers ;)

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May my explanation is simple; bagh changed his attitude; his normal style was to hit the ball when was dropping- not at peak of the bouncing, bagh was always waiting the ball to drop after bouncing- thats the reason he is very effective on grass, coz grass has lower bouncing than rest of surfaces- today he tried new kinds of shots, he was hitting the ball with power at its higher peak So, he upset kohlie, the german was out of waters, despite his intelligent game, yes kolhie was very very competitive opponent cheers :)

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Djokovic vs Krajinovic UNDER 19.5 games @ 4/6 (P Power:5/10)

VOID. Quite a few nice ones for today I think. Cilic to beat Baghdatis @ 1/2 (Will Hill:7/10) Best available price and I think it's already driftedI don't rate eithe player that highly on this surface and both like faster conditions but Cilic is still a class above on dirt IMO.He's not having a great year since winning Zagreb indoors and on clay he has lost to GGL and Lopez in recent weeks....and beaten Andreev, Berrer, Gruel and Almagro.Baghdatis likewise has lost to Gulbis and Montanes easily on clay this year before struggling against a German qualifier in round one in Munich. Played well against Kohli but Cilic will pose different problems for him...he can serve better, defend better and mix it up at times...of course Marin's shots can break down at times and he's an error machine when he's not playing well but I think he has clear advantages over Baghdatis here. Federer vs Montanes OVER 19.5 games @ 4/6 (Bet365:5/10) This bet is mainly because of Federer's displays in non-GS events this year....he seems to use them just to get some match practice, try some things out and get sharp for the majors....lost to Gulbis on Rome a few weeks back and anything but great so far at Estoril beating Phau 6-3 6-4 and Clement 7-6 6-2. Montanes is a good player but inconsistent, not much power but a solid player who moves and defends pretty well......reached the 1/4 final of Monte Carlo losing to Verdasco in 3 and then has lost to Chardy and Lorenzi in recent weeks. But he won here last year and beat Gimeno-Traver and Cuevas in straights so far here.....I think he can be competitive for at least a set here and hopefully push this over the line. Wawrinka vs Isner OVER 21.5 games @ 8/11(P Power:5/10) Think Isner's serve alone can take this one over the line.Stan is on fire lately to be fair...won Casablance killing Hanescu, lost to Djokovic and Nadal in Monte Carlo and Rome beating the likes of Gulbis, Soderling and Berdych. Tough schedule and maybe he's feeling it this week.....did OK beating Italian qualifier Di Mauro in 2 in round 1 and then beat Troicki in 3 yesterday in a mammoth match. Isner is not a clay-courter really but will make it competitive at least with his big serve/forehand combo and he's pretty strong mentally in tight moments.He pushed Djokovic and Troicki in the Davis Cup in Serbia a few months back on clay and has beaten Zeballos, Ouanna and Gasquet on dirt in his last few matches. His serve isn't as potent on clay but he served pretty well against Gasquet for patches of the match.I think he can take one set at least to a 7-5 or 7-6 which could help it over the line. GL!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May One bet for me on semi-final day... Belgrade - Stanislas Wawrinka vs John Isner Stanislas Wawrinka -3.5 games AH at 2.13 (Pinnacle) I think this line has been priced too generously and I'm winning to go for it. Isner was fortunate to beat Richard Gasquet yesterday. The Frenchman suffered a mental collapse, as is all too often the norm with him. The big American is still finding his feet on clay and although he can take out decent players, he's playing one of the Top 15 in the world on clay for me in Wawrinka. The Swiss had a gruelling match against Viktor Troicki yesterday. Despite going the distance, Wawrinka didn't lose his serve once and held his nerve at vital moments. He's got the game to beat most players on the clay and I can't see Isner causing him as many problems as Troicki did. Sure, the American has a big serve, but it's effect is diminshed on clay and Wawrinka will benefit from that. Wawrinka also leads the H2H 1-0, beating him on a hard court last year 6-4 6-4. That's Isner's preferred surface and that sort of scoreline would be enough to cover the line. The price is such that a smaller stake can be used here. I just think Wawrinka is a step above Isner on this surface and I'm willing to back him. Bet strength: 5/10 Good luck to all :hope

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marin Cilic v Marcos Baghdatis
Selection	Marcos Baghdatis
Strength	10/10
Date	08/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Not impressed by Cilic at all in this clay season. He's got some wins here but struggled against Gruel and almagro and I still don't think he's playing well. Baghdatis was big underdog yesterday against Kohlschreiber but he played great. Groundstrokes had a lot of pop and he really seemed up for this tournament. I'll take him to get another good win today.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Mikhail Youzhny v Philipp Petzschner
Selection	Lay Philipp Petzschner (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	08/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 3.40 (Lay)
Reasoning	Youzhny looks like a solid to me today. He's a classy player and when his head is right he is excellent. He has looked very solid this week and I can't past him winning this. He has a good record in this tournament and a lot more game than Petzschner on clay. Petzschner got a surprise win over Berdych yesterday but I can't see him repeating that today.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Jelena Jankovic v Marie Jose Sanchez Martinez
Selection	Marie Jose Sanchez Martinez
Strength	10/10
Date	08/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 3.75 (Back)
Reasoning	I got her match wrong yesterday, but MJSM was brilliant. She mixed up her play extremely well and was hitting beautiful. It could be a great moment for her to catch Jankovic. Jankovic had very tough match yesterday against Serena, and beating the Williams' in consecutive days is tough - especially when you have the final the next day! This will be a completely different sort of match and she may struggle to adjust. Of course, Jankovic is playing really well, and has much more experience of finals, but I think this price is worth a chance on MJSM.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May One for tomorrow aswell.......... Safarova to beat Sharapova @ 11/10 (P Power: 7/10) Think this is available at 6/4 in another bookie but I can't get it....anyway when I seen the draw I said I'd take Lucie if she was bigger than Evens.Since Sharapova returned from injury she has lost to Kirilenko at the AO, won a small tournament in Memphis and lost to Zheng in 3 in Indian Wells.....still finding her form and climbing the rankings at this point. Her serve and other shots still looked like they needs work. She has a good clay record and has done well at Rolland Garros in the past but she's definitely more vulnerable on dirt becsuse of the speed of the courts and her movement which is not great.Her match with Safarova will be her first on clay since losing to Cibulkova in the French last year( I remember backing Cibulkova that day and Gonzalez to beat Murray at the same time, one of my best gambling days ever...:lol)so she might be rusty here as it's tough to adjust to clay straight off.I like Safarova but she is a player only to be backed as an underdog IMO...very inconsistent. But some good signs on European clay in recent weeks beating Wozniacki(who was carrying an injury but stilla good win 6-4 6-4) in Stuttgart before falling to Lapushchenkova who was having a top week., and 1/4 final in Rome last week beating Govortsova and then Pennetta and Radwanska as big underdog before losing a tight match to finalist Martinez-Sanchez.She can play lights out tennis one day and poor the next but I feel now is an ideal time to back her looking at her recent matches and Sharapova's shape coming into this one. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May Great win for Isner over Wawrinka. Baghdatis is serving at 4-2 in the first set against Cilic. Surprised so far at Baghy's level......playing really well so far.....good defence, aggressive in points. Cilic not srving well which is not helping.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

One bet for me on semi-final day... Belgrade - Stanislas Wawrinka vs John Isner Stanislas Wawrinka -3.5 games AH at 2.13 (Pinnacle) I think this line has been priced too generously and I'm winning to go for it. Isner was fortunate to beat Richard Gasquet yesterday. The Frenchman suffered a mental collapse, as is all too often the norm with him. The big American is still finding his feet on clay and although he can take out decent players, he's playing one of the Top 15 in the world on clay for me in Wawrinka. The Swiss had a gruelling match against Viktor Troicki yesterday. Despite going the distance, Wawrinka didn't lose his serve once and held his nerve at vital moments. He's got the game to beat most players on the clay and I can't see Isner causing him as many problems as Troicki did. Sure, the American has a big serve, but it's effect is diminshed on clay and Wawrinka will benefit from that. Wawrinka also leads the H2H 1-0, beating him on a hard court last year 6-4 6-4. That's Isner's preferred surface and that sort of scoreline would be enough to cover the line. The price is such that a smaller stake can be used here. I just think Wawrinka is a step above Isner on this surface and I'm willing to back him. Bet strength: 5/10 Good luck to all :hope

Isner d. Wawrinka 7-5 7-5 - LOSS Did not see that one coming. Great result for Isner.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Cilic to beat Baghdatis @ 1/2 (Will Hill:7/10) Federer vs Montanes OVER 19.5 games @ 4/6 (Bet365:5/10) Wawrinka vs Isner OVER 21.5 games @ 8/11(P Power:5/10)

WIN WIN WIN Good result after a pretty patchy last few days.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Sam Querrey v John Isner
Selection	Sam Querrey
Strength	10/10
Date	09/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.87 (Back)
Reasoning	Wow the big americans have taken over Belgrade! Both not suited so well to clay, but have shown this week they can get the job done. Isner has had the tougher draw beating Gasquet and Wawrinka, while Querrey got a good win over Andreev. But I don't think that means too much here. They have played twice this year, score 1-1, Querrey winning indoors and Isner outdoor hard. Both close games with tie break and probably similar here. But I think overall Querrey has a higher level, better game from the back and will make more chances to break. I'd have him more like 1.70.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Mikhail Youzhny v Marin Cilic
Selection	Mikhail Youzhny
Strength	10/10
Date	09/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	My choice is Youzhny in this final. Thought he was a little flat in his semi, but got in done in 2 sets and can improve tomorrow. Cilic took 3 sets again today against Baghdatis, and this could catch up with him. Prefer Youzhny on clay and think at the momemt his level is slightly higher.

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May this is opinion of someone who watched both semis now, if you beleive that he may watched both semis but what he reads? guys, i am not tennis coach, i never touched a racket since 80"s when i was practicing in a five star hotel here in cyprus- as hobby- today youzhny won a mediocre german player, without any problem, both players were bad in first set, and average in second Cilic won bagh rather comfortably, he lost the first set , but he cruised in second and third- bagh was absent for unknown reasons- However, Cilic showed some of his quality, he was very good in my eyes for two sets, he is 21 years old, and everybody rating him as potential top5 player- why not potential number one i say- Cilic is a top class horse at 198cm, 21 years old, he has a lot to prove Clay is not out of question for cilic, he is hitting the ball tremendously. he is moving very well Cilic for me @2 to beat Youshny bet of the sunday :tongue2 cheers

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May cilic to beat youzny at evens bet365 3 points! cant believe cilic is considered the underdog here! he is a much better player on clay than people give him credit for.....he coasted through to the 4th round at roland garros last year before finding murray too tricky! he has made huge progress since then and like andrewmurray says he is a future top 5 player at least!! he has beaten better opponents to get to the final in my opinion than youzny (almagro and bagdathis are top class nopponents in my opinion) while youzny scraped by unconventional german petzchner! of course cilic prefers faster surfaces but it could be argued that so too does youzny......i rate him far higher on grass than clay......poor record at the french open also!!but i don't think the surface is as big a playerr in this final as is being made out!! cilic is simply striking the ball really well now....his flat aggressive style is unlikely 2 give youzny the rhythm he craves and i simply believe that cilic is more of a winner than mikael who will never give up but over the last few seasons has proved that he tends 2 get tight on the moments that really matter in big matches!!

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Daniela Hantuchova
Selection	Pavlyuchenkova
Strength	10/10
Date	09/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 2.75 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, this is the type of situation where one player is overrated and the other one is underrated. Daniela Hantuchova had more success recently, her results were better as she defeated twice Jelena Jankovic, two big wins. On the other hand Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has already two defeats in a row against Wozniacki and Brianti, the reason for why we have these great odds today on her side. There are no doubts that Pavlyuchenkova didn't played her best tennis recently but she is back on the road again now without injuries this time as her foot is much better. Speaking about class I will say that overall Pavlyuchenkova is a better player than Hantuchova, she possess more and better qualities, the russian girl can play more stable from the baseline, her movement is better and also her forehand and backhand has a better effect. Hantuchova can play well more on her serve as she can make the difference at the net, but this is the only her advantage. I remember very well the latest two games between these two players as I have watched them and I can confirm that Pavlyuchenkova has the game in her hands when playing against Hantuchova, it is up to her if she will win or lose it. All in all, Hantuchova is overrated at the moment while Pavlyuchenkova is underrated, but this time the russian player should be better prapared as her foot is much better now. Good Luck!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May Querrey vs Isner OVER 22.5 games @ 8/11(P Power:8/10) Two giant, big-serving Americans in a European clay court final.......:nana...unbelievable stuff.Have to go with the overs here as I think you could flip a coin regarding who wins the match. Head to head reads 1-1, both matches on American hard court this year...Isner winning in Indian Wells 7-6 6-4, and Querrey winning the Memphis final 6-7 7-6 6-3...so obviously this is a clear 50:50 match....both have huge serves(not as big a weapon on clay but still proving to be good weapons this week), and can follow it up with big groundstrokes. Querrey reached the clay final in Houston a few weeks back losing to Chela....also lost to Benneteau a few weeks back...here in Belgrade he's beaten Korlove in 2, Andreev in 3(good win) and youngster Krajinovic easily yesterday. Isner this week has beaten Ouanna, Gasquet and yesterday Wawrinka which is a superb win for him......Wawrinka is one of the on-form clay-courters this year.I see a tight match today....maybe 2 tight sets or 3...which hopefully pulls it over the line. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 3-9 May

Querrey vs Isner OVER 22.5 games @ 8/11 (P Power:8/10) Safarova to beat Sharapova @ 11/10 (P Power: 7/10)

WIN WIN Great weekend.