Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

Great stuff mate' date=' well done indeed:clap[/quote'] Many Thanks Russ ... :ok

[jtw1]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Keep finding those winners mate :clap:clap:clap

[Kithanga]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

Sunday 25th April Bath 15:50 = Only one choice for me here and thats the runner that gave me a 25/1 winner a couple of weeks ago ( see earlier post ). Sherman McCoy is again very nicely weighted for this race and finds himself in great form at the moment. Going & distance not an issue, But just finding it hard to get away from this horse after its excellent run 2 weeks ago, Lets see if he can repeat the form. Bath 16:25 = Listed Fillies race where Gilt Edge Girl is getting the nod. Although an increase in the class of race that this filly is used to, It's carrer form really stands out will 11 runs and 10 places ( 3 as winner ). Although an increase in OR, Weight & distance suit nicely and the going to be to it's advantage here today. Cannot see any draw advantage so it seems we have a nice clean race where hopefully she can prevail. Bath 16:55 = 2 stand out here with Wanchai Whisper & Avonvalley my picks. Wanchai Whisper is suited in most aspects but all but 1 run has been on the A/W. So I'm siding with Avonvalley as my pick. Although prefers a slightly lower weight, It's running at same as in last race. Distance & Going should suit, But its the steady decrease in Or over a few runs that might just give this runner an edge. Bath 17:25 = Tight handicap to finish the day off with, With Bo McGinty my choice. It's hard to get away from this pick when you look at its previous from on the A/W and the average sort of form in the 2009 season, But it's the Trainer / Jockey pairing thats having so much success at present thats drawing my eye. Looks like it could just be coming into good form at just the right time as everything is suited to this horse today and just cannot see the red hot form of this yard at present deserting them today. Sherman McCoy - 2.5pts WIN Gilt Edge Girl - 2.5pts E/W Avonvalley - 2.5pts E/W Bo McGinty - 2.5pts WIN

:notworthy What can I say...brilliant!

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Many Thanks for the feedback Kithanga & JTW. :ok Really Appreciate your comments. I Seem to be on a decent run at the moment, Hopefully can keep it going for a while. :hope

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 F*cking hell, on fire at the moment :notworthy

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

F*cking hell' date=' on fire at the moment :notworthy[/quote'] Cheers Mate. :ok

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Monday 26th April. Didnt bother with the 2 meetings at Newcastle & Wolves. Nothing really caught my eye. So I'm concentrating on Windsor tonight. You might think I have somehting in my eye when you see what I've picked .:lol Windsor 17:40 - All the write ups about this race seem to be about 2 horses, Bebopalula & Captain Cool. Although both look decent prospects there is something standing out on 2 others for me. Varachi & Frameit seem to be shouting out to me but the form for these 2 is indifferent. Alot of things suit with Varachi even though formwise you would bypass this horse but the high draw could be a real benefit here. Frameit has slightly better form but all seems to be on the A/W. A comparison to last years winner has drawn me towards Frameit and the similarities between the 2 in the build up is uncanny. Weight & distance both suit, Draw is a bit dodgy but we could be in for a suprise here. Windsor 18:10 - One of my favourites from last year is Epsom Salts and is my pick in this. After an excellent 2009 season its had the winter off and just had a recent run to pull a little fitness back. LTO didnt do to bad after a break but could come here with real intent. Distance & Going both suit, but a slight drop in OR and a highish draw for this run could see him raising a few eyebrows here. Windsor 18:40 - Decent looking handicap race with Anne of Kiev followed here. Although after 2008 season it took a year out, it's been slowly introduced back with a few runs on the A/W. This return has seen some half decent rusults and todays run seems to suit more than its previous runs. A decrease in OR and nice weight, it looks like the going could be a factor but distance not an issue. Windsor 19:10 - A maiden race is not something usually I would look at but going to have a punt on this one. Weekend Millionair is my choice after some credible form in its short career. Suited Weight & Going but trip could be a little to long for him here. Other runners seem in same boat regarding previous runs but also some high prices at the moment and a yard in good form at the moment shouldnt be overlooked. Windsor 19:40 - Similar to above, Some very high prices at the moment and can be a little deceiving. Ana Moutabahi & Ant Music seem very highly priced but both show capable runners with Ant Music the more competant. After some excellent runs in 2010 which have all been A/W the form in the races can benefit here with a suited Weight & Distance. Other runners have similar form but Ant Music has given some decent horses a run for their money recently and is favoured here. All 2.5pts E/W ( SP on All )

[Monterosso]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Great shout with Frameit, Ran a very good 3rd.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

Great shout with Frameit' date=' Ran a very good 3rd.[/quote'] Cheers Monterosso ... :ok I was looking at the excuse that there was something in my eye when picking this, but no need. :lol

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Monday 26th April Result Frameit = 3rd @ 33/1 :clap Epsom Salts = 8th ( 14 runners ) Anne of Kiev = 7th ( 15 runners ) Weekend Millionair = 4th ( 16 runners ) Ant Music = 7th ( 14 runners ) Bit of a bad day. Didnt expect to much with these to be honest. Onto Tuesday.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Tuesday 27th April Yarmouth 16:40 - Not a fantastic card here with Mejd & Epic the dangers. I like the look of Heading To First in this 10f race. Although last 3 runs ( all 2010 ) have been on the A/W, It hasnt been disgraced by its results. A decent drop in Weight and a slight reduction in OR could benifit this ride. Going could be an issue but with the field in not to strong a contest we could have a Place. Lingfield 16:30 - A nice little claimer here with some decent opposition for Novay Essjay. Although a pick I would usually discard as not offering value for money, The amount of things going for this ride means it cannot be ignored. Nicely weighted and a drop in class of race might just give us a place with Craicattack the main danger Lingfield 17:00 - I like the look of this handicap race with Mr Skipiton eyed to bring home some sucess. Although no runs for nearly 8 months the form that it had previous was decent over turf & A/W. After a drop in weight for todays run and not an overly strong field, We could see a return to winning ways with the setup for today in Weight, Distance & OR. A previous Course & Distance Winner with a good chance of some sucess today. Lingfield 17:30 - Another handicap with not an overly strong field here with Not My Choice followed. Recent 2010 form has been very good and has had very little fluctuation in Weights and OR, So we have a steady runner that has had recent runs to keep it fit with only the draw giving me a headache. Most sucess has been at a low draw but today runs out of 10. All 2.5pts E/W - SP taken on All.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Quick post before I go and bath my little'un. Nottingham 18:05 - My main selecion for this race has been confirmed as non runner so i'm looking at others that might offer a little value here. 12yo Taboor has a good jockey on board but is up against some good youngsters here so i'm siding with Style Award. Some decent form to late over the A/W but a couple of stand out results over career on the turf on same going enhances my choice. Weight & Distance not an issue and same OR as previous. Nothing jumps out with this horse but is no slouch so going for a place with his one. Will be back soon with a couple more from tonights Nottingham Card. 2.5pts E/W

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Nottingham 19:05 - Got a really bad gut feeling about this one. I'm stuck between 3 runners and struggling to decide which one to follow. My 3 are Prince Of Johanne ( currently 20/1 + ), Iron Out ( currently 125/1 ish ) & Sohcahtoa ( currently 9/2 ). My brain is saying Sohcahtoa but my heart is saying Iron Out. If a horse is 100/1 + then is that price for a reason as pointed out to me the other day, But one thing that I have also stood by and has held me in good stead is never back against a prominent horse and Iron Out is prominent. So where do I go ?? Ok Sohcahtoa does have a background but can be a really hit & miss horse, but do you disgard a Hannon Horse? Prince Of Johanne has a mixture of form but is capable on this ride if the ground was alittle softer. Iron Out has had a decent 6 month run in 2009 over different goings but mostly A/W and place form to prove. So following head instead of heart anmd meeting halfway i'm going for Prince Of Johanne to prevail here. :hope 2.5pts E/W.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Well Pi##ed Off Now ...:cry This is a lesson well learnt, Stick with your selection and dont let your judgement get clouded. Did I tell you how Pi##ed Off I Was. Iron Out ... 3rd @ 66/1 ( SP )

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Well Thats It For Today ... Sulking Like Fcuk Now. :lol Looking at Wednesday's cards now ... Back Later.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

Nottingham 19:05 - Got a really bad gut feeling about this one. I'm stuck between 3 runners and struggling to decide which one to follow. My 3 are Prince Of Johanne ( currently 20/1 + ), Iron Out ( currently 125/1 ish ) & Sohcahtoa ( currently 9/2 ). My brain is saying Sohcahtoa but my heart is saying Iron Out. If a horse is 100/1 + then is that price for a reason as pointed out to me the other day, But one thing that I have also stood by and has held me in good stead is never back against a prominent horse and Iron Out is prominent. So where do I go ?? Ok Sohcahtoa does have a background but can be a really hit & miss horse, but do you disgard a Hannon Horse? Prince Of Johanne has a mixture of form but is capable on this ride if the ground was alittle softer. Iron Out has had a decent 6 month run in 2009 over different goings but mostly A/W and place form to prove. So following head instead of heart anmd meeting halfway i'm going for Prince Of Johanne to prevail here. :hope 2.5pts E/W.

Spooner remember this " As for taking odds into consideration I would say double check your selection again and ask why it may be this price? You may see other pictures, if not, then I see no reason not to select the horse. :unsure " as an earlier post. I'm holding you personnaly responsible for changing my mind. :lol Only Joking Mate ... Learnt A BIG Lesson Today. It was very sound advice though, And has taught me a major lesson. Onto Wednesday's Picks. Still Sulking Though.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 That is a sore one mate but onwards and upwards :ok Just think it could have been worse, it could have won.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

That is a sore one mate but onwards and upwards :ok Just think it could have been worse' date=' it could have won.[/quote'] Cheers Stu ... :lol feeling much better now.:lol

[Kithanga]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 The worst thing you can do is let it pray on your mind and start thinking about the cash you would have returned.......which was £35.50 to a £2.50 each way bet by the way :eek Doh! But seriously.....keep your chin up cos at the end of the day whatever your final decision your analysis was good and that's the positive to take out of it. K

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010

The worst thing you can do is let it pray on your mind and start thinking about the cash you would have returned.......which was £35.50 to a £2.50 each way bet by the way :eek Doh! But seriously.....keep your chin up cos at the end of the day whatever your final decision your analysis was good and that's the positive to take out of it. K

Cheers Kithanga ... Just annoyed with myself thats all ..;) I'm happy with reasoning and that I noticed it, But annoyed with myself for ignoring it. Suppose thats what its all about and you learn from your mistakes. Got alot of confidence from this thread & Feedback received. I just want to keep it going without making stupid mistakes.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Thursday 29th April Brighton 17:30 - Mediocre handicap with a few capable runners here. Two have the form I would look for in a selection with Sultans Way & Jonnie Skull. Sultans Way has been trying of late but needs a softer ground to prevail. Jonnie Skull can perform if he wants but needs to decide what is the best going for this horse. The A/W form for Jonnie Skull in 2009 was very good but as soon as different goings come about he could be very easily overlooked. A big drop in OR over the last few runs may also help but distance not an issue. Could be caught out by Going so punting for a place here. 2.5pts E/W.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Brighton 18:00 - Hoping I have read this correctly but current 20/1 shot Cordell is making my eyes twitch. Just looking through the form and nothing really prevails, A few good runs but nothing outstanding. Just looking through the races where its had a bad finish and a different look sprongs to light. When the final place has been bad, the quality its been up against has been very strong and not had a chance in many races. A big drop in weight from what its used to and a massive drop in OR have been noted. Distance of race could be an issue as it prefers a slightly longer run. 2.5pts E/W Brighton 18:30 - Strong looking race here with Stanley Rigby followed. Not the best horse in the race but seems to up coming and definatly one to watch in the future. Retains same jockey as in last 4 races which has seen a return of a second place and 3, 5th places. Would have preferred an A/W outing but is running at a slightly lower weight & drop in OR. Distance could be a issue, But going to push for a place here. 2.5pts E/W Brighton 19:00 - Although no run for over 6 months Dancer's Legacy probably finished at the wrong time. A few runs on the end of the 2009 season were starting to look good and could have benefited from aprevious run before today. Hayley Turner is in the saddle today with a run thats suited in weight & distance and has good form on this going but could be outdone by no previous 2010 runs. 2.5pts E/W Brighton 20:00 - Final handicap for the night with Tiger Trail tentively selected. There is a couple of stronger runners here but my selection alot of runs on this Going and could be of benefit. Nicely Weighted for this distance but with no run 7 months could be a little rusty. This horse seems to benefit from a previous run so with this in mind I'll look for a place. 2.5pts E/W Will be back later with Tuesday Results & P/L so Far.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Thursday's Result :- Jonnie Skull = 8th ( 14 runners ) Cordell = 4th ( 10 runners ) Stanley Rigby = 2nd @ 17/2 :D Dancer's Legacy = 7th ( 10 runners ) Tiger Trail = 2nd @ 9/1 :D The 2 places are welcome, Happy with Cordell because that could have gone horribly wrong for me. Onto Friday's Cards I suppose. If you guys done mind, I'm going to leave P/L to weekend. Havnt enough hours in the day to sort it out at the moment. But cannot wait to see results so far.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Had a couple of days off as nothing I really fancied was running. Looking at 3 meetings today. Saturday 1st May Newmarket 13:55 - The opener at Newmarket looks a good competitive race with Albaqaa followed. LTO was 2 weeks ago and finished as winner in a very good quality race. Although an increase in OR from 95 LTO, Weight , Distance is suited very nicely. This horse has had some very good runs in its last year and seems to have come back in 2010 strong. Although two races ago was not a good finish ( 7th ) the going didnt suit but today its back to what it prefers. 14/1 Stan James Newmarket 14:25 - Only 5 runners here but still looks a decent race with Jukebox Jury my choice. Alot of things suit for this ride but the big factor for me is the Going. The distance & weight are not issue's and seems the Going can help this one home. 6/4 Stan James. Newmarket 15:05 - 2000 Guineas time, Not a race I would normally look at but today I'm looking at Elusive Pimpernel. Dont know to much about this horse but what I have read is very positive and it seems well respected. 4 career runs resulting in 3 wins & 1 second ( 75% win rate ) shows a capable runner which today is back where its had 2 previous wins. Nicely weighted, no issue with distance and preferred going, is going to be to its advantage today. 5/1 Stan James Newmarket 15:40 - Another strong field with Borderlescott my choice for glory. Although an increase in OR, I cannot see this being an issue, Taking into consideration a decent drop in weight since LTO, this horse has excellent career form on this Going. Eveything seems to fit today but with no recent run ( 4 1/2 months out ) I hope it can carry on from where it left off. 6/1 Stan James Newmarket 16:15 - Previous distance winner Racy is tentively selected here. Seems to be a few capable runners in this field which could make Racy have to work hard to get home. Suited weight & distance and preferred going, This horse is going to have to find a little more than what its been offering if it wants to win here. 5/1 Stan James Newmarket 16:50 - Strong field of 5 runners with all having claims but my choice Anhar seems to have to do a little more if it wants any claim at all. No run for 6 months could be the issue against some strong runners but Anhar will need to get to grips with the going and distance. Weight is slightly reduced since LTO but with the experience of Dettori on board, it's getting my vote. 4/1 Stan James Newmarket 17:25 - Very good looking handicap race with Azizi selected. Although an increase in weight since LTO, Azizi has winning form at todays weight so this isnt an issue. Distance not an issue and looking at the career form on 7 runs 3 winners and 2 places both second on a mixture of goings shows a strong selection. 6/1 Stan James Changed MY staking Plan for today and taken the prices quoted in each post in a .01pts E/W Super Heinz ( Stan James )

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Saturday 1st May Goodwood 14:15 - Although had the last 6 months over the Jumps, Just Rob has some decent form on the flat earlier in its career. A massive drop in Weight and OR which is understandable now back on the flat, The setup this horse has for this race can make it a main contender. Although top weighted, the Going suits but what i think will be the deciding factor is the distance. 14f race where more stamina is needed over the jumps and it hasnt had an issue over slightly longer distances. 10/1 Stan James Goodwood 14:50 - Decent looking handicap race with Absa Lutte followed. Although recent runs have been on the A/W, there is some very good form there over same distance and similar weight. LTO it won over same distance despite being slightly hampered during race. Going maybe a deciding factor in its benefit. 9/4 Stan James Goodwood 15:25 - Competitve looking handicap with a few runners in with a shout. Kerrys Requiem has 2 runs in April 2010 with both finish's in 2nd place. Weight & Distance are consistant with these last 2 runs and probably prefers todays going over the last 2 runs. Has some very good form in career so far and think it could go one better today and get a win. 11/2 Stan James Goodwood 16:00 - I like the looks of this race and want Aspectoflove to head home first. Although a big increase in Weight & OR, I'm not to concerned with this and the benefits that suit here are the Distance & Going. It has some excellent form over varying going's and cannot be discounted here. 9/4 Stan James. .05pts E/W Lucky 15 at above prices Stan James

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Saturday 1st May Thirsk 15:30 - Strong looking handicap race where Nightjar can hopefully prevail. A drop in class of race than what it's used to and a major drop in OR could be of benefit here. Although had some recent A/W runs with some good results Last years 2009 turf form was not too good. But after some encouraging starts recently and weighted nicely for this run, Nightjar has a good chance. 5/1 Stan James Thirsk 16:05 - Tiger Reigns was selected @ 16/1 , Now confirmed Non Runner. Thirsk 17:15 - The 2009 Flat form of Igoyougo is what has stood out for me here. Lats 6 runs all in 2009 were excellent with 3 wins & 2 second places and the only run not to be placed ended in a 4th spot where it lost it on the run in. A slight increase in OR is not a worry but a big drop in Weight could be of benefit. Going is definetly suited but 6 months without a run is a worry. 9/2 Stan James Thirsk 17:45 - Competitive Sprint handicap to finish off the card where Liberty Ship is my choice. A drop in weight and a preferred going are suited but its the 10 month lay off thats a major worry. The form from 2009 is excellent and with 8 runs with only 2 outside a place position it has to be considered. 11/1 Stan James .03 E/W Lucky 15 @ above prices.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Saturdays Results Newmarket Albaqaa - 8th ( 16 runners ) Jukebox Jury - 1st :clap Elusive Pimpernel - 5th ( 19 runners ) Borderlescott - 2nd :D Racy - 4th ( 14 runners ) Anhar - 5th ( 5 runners ) :lol Azizi - Last Goodwood Just Rob - 1st :nana Should have took SP, took 10's won at 20/1 Absa Lutte - 4th ( 7 runners ) Kerrys Requiem - 4th ( 9 runners ) Aspectoflove - 4th ( 9 runners ) Thirsk Nightjar - 2nd :D Tiger Reigns - Non Runner Igoyougo - 1st :clap Liberty Ship - Last Not happy with the staking plan today. Changed to Super Heinz & Lucky 15's instead of sticking with normal staking plan. Would have had alot bigger profit margin instead of a small loss if it wasnt changed. :@ Have funded my account now so will revert back to normal staking plan tomorrow.

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Sunday 2nd May Newmarket 14:05 - Refrained from posting this last night as rain was expected in the area so if could influence my picks. The going has changed from Good to Firm to Good, Good to Soft in places so with a little bit of cut in the ground im going for Becausewecan. A drop in weight for this race and where this longer distance is preferred we could be in with a shout. The Going is a decidng factor for me here as it prefers a little cut in the ground. 2.5pts E/W @ 20/1 Stan James Newmarket 15:20 - Although had no runs for 7 months, Hibaayeb is tentively selected here. Running at a steady weight consistant with it 4 career runs which have resulted in 1win & 3 places ( 2 as second ) would prefer a slightly harder going but cannot be discounted because of this. Godolphin are likely to have this ready for action here in the 1000 Guineas and hopefully wont disgrace itself. Class of race not an issue but taking into consideration the increase in OR and the cut in the ground will look for a place. 2.5pts E/W @ 20/1 Stan James Newmarket 15:55 - Impressive field here for this handicap where Medicean Man takes my vote. Very nicely weighted for this run and is a previous distance winner. Seems to prefer Good going and can prevail here in a strong field of 25 runners. Would have preferred a bit more form to go off but compared to other runnerts form this has a very strong chance. 1pts E/W @ 16/1 Stan James ( having to reduce stakes as not enough dosh for todays racing in my account ) Newmarket 17:05 - Listed Fillies race where we have a couple of very strong candidates for this one. Principal Role is probably the strongest of the runners but my choice after alot of deliberation is Marie De Medici. A slight decrease in OR and steadily weighted consistant with previous runs makes this a good prospect here. Would prefer slightly tougher going and will be interesting to see if it can stay this distance. 2.5pts E/W

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Sunday 2nd May Hamilton 16:15 - With no expected rain in this area, I'm siding with Kames Park. If there was cut in the ground I wouldnt be expecting this to do anything but with a firmer going today we can expect something from this one. 2010 form so far is very impressive but most have been A/W rides. Slight increase in OR but Weight & Distance both suit. LTO was similar distance, weight & going and Won in a stronish field. 2.5pts Win Hamilton 17:25 - What doesnt look a strong field I'm following Ingleby Star for some glory. What would be a prefered Weight, Distance & OR could be upset by the Going. Ground might be little to stiff for this and with this in mind would look for a place. 2.5pts E/W Hamilton 17:55 - Strong Sprint Handicap to finish the card with Megalo Maniac choosen. With some decent form behind this horse it would like a slightly longer race. Weight & Going not an issue but seems to prefer 6 or 7f races. Doesnt have good form over 5f and with this in mind will look for a place. 1pts E/W @ 4/1 Stan James

[philss_99]

Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 Sunday 2nd May Salisbury 14:20 - Although no run in 6 months Dubai Set has some very good 2009 form prior to his break. 7 career runs with 6 places ( 2 as winner ). Weight is consistant with 2009 form and like the race distance. Going could be a decider here and a strong candidate for honours here with all aspects of the race suited. 1.04pts E/W @ 11/2 Stan James Salisbury 16:40 - Decent looking field here but not an overly confident choice with Swiss Act followed. Heigher weight from previous runs but its more suited todays weight than in previous runs where it just missed out. Distance is not an issue and the going might just be a helping factor in a place here. 2.5pts E/W