Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I managed to better just over 9-2 on that one on Betfair with the R4 and he was backed into 11-4 fav but still I'm searching for a winner to end the drought. There's one highlight from this losing run and that's the fact that I'm becomming immune to the losers now. Previously every single loser used to really hurt and I'd fret over it afterwards. Now, well it's just another to add to the list and if I can keep getting significantly over the odds (as I have for almost every bet on the thread so far) it'll come good in the end. Either that or I'll lose the entire contents of my betting bank and will holiday in a tent in the back garden this year.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Just one race studied so far, the 3.25 at Haydock, and prices I've got are: Webbow 11-2 Jordaura 6-1 Ezdeyaad 6-1 Just Bond 13-2 Kidlat 9-1 Gala Casino Star 10-1 Mujaadel 16-1 Trans Sonic 16-1 Carnivore 18-1 Fastnet Storm 20-1 which looks fairly close to the R.Post forecast so not looking like a betting race unless the bookies price up differently in the morning.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Just one race studied so far, the 3.25 at Haydock, and prices I've got are: Webbow 11-2 Jordaura 6-1 Ezdeyaad 6-1 Just Bond 13-2 Kidlat 9-1 Gala Casino Star 10-1 Mujaadel 16-1 Trans Sonic 16-1 Carnivore 18-1 Fastnet Storm 20-1 which looks fairly close to the R.Post forecast so not looking like a betting race unless the bookies price up differently in the morning.

You can get some early prices with PP and Bet365 at the moment mate. I like the look of Webbow and Kidlat.

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary K, dont worry about the run, IMO you are doing the right things. I know beating the sp's doesnt necessarily indicate value but i think it goes some way to suggesting so in most cases and celtic change was strongly backed yesterday. He was only outbattled close home after running a good race, so its encouraging to see them knocking on the door. As you said to me back in May, keeping doing the right things, identfying the value plays, and it alls falls into place when you peak for the season.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thx SER, I wasn't expecting 'em to price up early at Haydock. Although there's still not much to go at in the prices. I like Webbow too as things look just right for him and quite a lot lower in class than normal with the race likely to be run to suit. I'm not as keen on Kidlat though as he looked to have every chance last time and may need to drop a couple of pounds for me. Jordaura is the other that interests me and I'm probably more likely to get a price on that one given Spotlight's chosen Webbow. Hi Fin, excellent day for you today mate, well done again. I've chilled a bit about the run now. Just hurt at the time. If anything I'm taking a positive from it and that's that I'm getting used to the short term up's and down's although some more up's would be nice :lol. I think it's all part of what I wanted to do this year in increasing the number of bets, I'm bound to get longer and more frequent bad runs. Finished the 4.35 now too: Spirit Is Needed 5-1 The Last Alzao 13-2 Ahlawy 7-1 Jawaab 7-1 Caster Sugar 8-1 Bollin Greta 11-1 Chookie Hamilton 12-1 King's Head 14-1 Pictorial 16-1 El Diego 20-1

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Thx SER, I wasn't expecting 'em to price up early at Haydock. Although there's still not much to go at in the prices. I like Webbow too as things look just right for him and quite a lot lower in class than normal with the race likely to be run to suit. I'm not as keen on Kidlat though as he looked to have every chance last time and may need to drop a couple of pounds for me. Jordaura is the other that interests me and I'm probably more likely to get a price on that one given Spotlight's chosen Webbow.

Says on RP that Jordaura will only run if the ground is suitable and he's ran most of his career on good/soft/a.w so we'll have to see if he will run. Still being lightly raced over this trip i see exactly where you're coming from, will have to see the prices in the morning but i would like slightly bigger than 11/2. With Kidlat lto the ground obviously didnt suit and he's been declared a non runner 2 starts since when the ground was on the soft side. Should get the firm ground tomorrow and the form from his close 2nd here at Haydock 2 starts ago seems fairly strong. The 4th and 5th have both won since, the third placed in a class 2 and Just Bond ran another big race finishing 2nd next time out. Is a pound lower than that run with the jockeys claim and to me 10/1 is worth a punt. Would appreciate your thoughts, would like to have more race discussion with people on here :ok

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Says on RP that Jordaura will only run if the ground is suitable and he's ran most of his career on good/soft/a.w so we'll have to see if he will run. Still being lightly raced over this trip i see exactly where you're coming from, will have to see the prices in the morning but i would like slightly bigger than 11/2. With Kidlat lto the ground obviously didnt suit and he's been declared a non runner 2 starts since when the ground was on the soft side. Should get the firm ground tomorrow and the form from his close 2nd here at Haydock 2 starts ago seems fairly strong. The 4th and 5th have both won since, the third placed in a class 2 and Just Bond ran another big race finishing 2nd next time out. Is a pound lower than that run with the jockeys claim and to me 10/1 is worth a punt. Would appreciate your thoughts, would like to have more race discussion with people on here :ok

I like Jordaura as well Ram but like you say, maybe his turn will come on slightly slower ground. RE Kidlat, I think you make some valid points Ram, but I think Kidlat is best in a slowly run race, and with Fastnet Storm lining up here, I personally don't know whether that will be the case. I'm in the Webbow camp tomorrow myself. I price him up like you, K, and want 5/1+. Because of the ground I want 10/1 for Jordaura before parting with cash but if it softens would take less.

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

I like Jordaura as well Ram but like you say' date=' maybe his turn will come on slightly slower ground. RE Kidlat, I think you make some valid points Ram, but I think Kidlat is best in a slowly run race, and with Fastnet Storm lining up here, I personally don't know whether that will be the case. I'm in the Webbow camp tomorrow myself. I price him up like you, K, and want 5/1+. Because of the ground I want 10/1 for Jordaura before parting with cash but if it softens would take less.[/quote'] Actually, I take that bit about Kidlat back. He has some good form being held up off the pace too, so can be tactically versatile on the day if need be. If Halford uses his brain, could be a good call.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Don't worry about your bad run K, we all go through them, some more than others admittedly but you come across well educated in the game so I believe things will turn around for you. You do know what they say about buses... Just take a look at all three of my threads, I think al three were in a loss at one point and I now have 2 threads in profit and 1 still at a small loss albeit it has been turned round from a medium loss that I was really starting to think where it was going to end. You just have to keep believing in your selections and what you are doing is right and eventually your fortune should change. I definately think it helps with people leaving these comments, I speak to stewartd on msn and he always said to just keep at it and things would change and within a week I had hit a few winners. Keep it up mate and :hope for some winners :)

[Trotter]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm not so sure about Webbow for tomorrow's race He looks like a badly handicapped horse to me - hasn't won for two and half years (14 losing runs) , yet is still 7 lbs higher than his last winning mark He's also 8 years old and unlikely to be improving. Shame about the ground - if there was a bit of cut Trans Sonic would look good - he's improved massively over the winter on the AW and runs here off a lower mark. According to my speed figs he's been churning out Listed class times at Southwell, but he doesn't seem effective on good to firm ground. I might have another look at the race tomorrow...........:unsure It's all about opinions !............:)

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary thats the beauty of the game trotter. you'll be hitting pink on betfair for webbow and id be biting your hand off. I think you are right, he isnt particularly well handicapped, but this race could fall in his lap and is easier than some of the big field races he placed in last season. On ideal ground id make him my tissue fav myself.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Lots of good comments guys. My views are: Webbow: As Ram say is 8yo and lacks scope for improvement but does have an easier task here in class 3 than he did for most of last year in class 2. He run some really good races off this mark and with the top weight being only 9-04 he's not overly burdened. Has just shades it for me but not at the current prices. Jordaura: 1m is the limit of his stamina IMO on breeding and he's shown good pace at both 6f and 7f. A lot of this field are either exposed at 1m or ideally require slightly further. Therefore, I feel he should be able to use his better pace to good effect. I'm not overly concerned about the ground due to his good form over shorter as I don't think he'll be outpaced and he ran ok on it at Leicester last year. More of a concern is the overall pace in the race with so many prominently ridden. His race over 1m at Ascot was slowly run and so didn't test his stamina. His good finish was understandable against milers so I'm not reading too much positive into that run. I've basically used it to confirm that he's in form and no more. Kidlat: He struggled off marks in the high 70's on turf last season and had the run of the race when winning from the front over 10f at Kempton. He ran well here the other week in a race that favoured hold up horses (he was held up). There's every chance a strong pace again here will benefit him although Just Bond easily passed him last time and idled in front. Therefore, I don't rate him as highly as Just Bond and feel a mark of 82 is just a little too high.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary An interesting point about this race for me. The ones I'd want to back (if the correct price is available) are Webbow, Jordaura and Just Bond as I believe all three may well go close for different reasons. That means I wouldn't be interested in the others at any price. The reason is that I don't feel comfortable backing something I don't think will win, even if it appears to be overpriced. Mainly due to the fact that pricing them isn't an exact science. It's not like I'm passing up 50-1 on number 6 on the roulette wheel. Maybe that's wrong. In this race Kidlat who, as stated above, I think will struggle with this mark over the shorter trip is 16-1 against my assessment of 9-1. Should I therefore back it? Lets say I do back him and he's outpaced at a key point in the race (as he was last time here in identical conditions). That's really going to grate. If I leave him alone and he wins I can at least console myself with the thought that I just got the assessment of him wrong. Thoughts?

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary 4.35 Haydock Jawaab each way at 10-1 looks to have a sound chance in this. He ran well until lack of a recent run took effect in the final furlong last time over 1m 2f. He appears to do best when turned out quickly and with only 12 days since his last start I can see him improving on his first start of the season on a course he seems to like.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Don't worry about your bad run K, we all go through them, some more than others admittedly but you come across well educated in the game so I believe things will turn around for you. You do know what they say about buses... Just take a look at all three of my threads, I think al three were in a loss at one point and I now have 2 threads in profit and 1 still at a small loss albeit it has been turned round from a medium loss that I was really starting to think where it was going to end. You just have to keep believing in your selections and what you are doing is right and eventually your fortune should change. I definately think it helps with people leaving these comments, I speak to stewartd on msn and he always said to just keep at it and things would change and within a week I had hit a few winners. Keep it up mate and :hope for some winners :)

Thanks Stu, appreciated. It is hard to keep going sometimes, but essential that a punter gets used to the losing runs to become a long term winner I think. Sometimes though it's just a lot of cash to see exiting the bank account!

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'll take Mattamia to end my bad run in the 3.10 at Chepstow at 11-2. Suited by g/f ground this one struggled in bad ground on his reappearance in a decent class 3 at Nottingham.

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

An interesting point about this race for me. The ones I'd want to back (if the correct price is available) are Webbow' date=' Jordaura and Just Bond as I believe all three may well go close for different reasons. That means I wouldn't be interested in the others at [b']any price. The reason is that I don't feel comfortable backing something I don't think will win, even if it appears to be overpriced. Mainly due to the fact that pricing them isn't an exact science. It's not like I'm passing up 50-1 on number 6 on the roulette wheel. Maybe that's wrong. In this race Kidlat who, as stated above, I think will struggle with this mark over the shorter trip is 16-1 against my assessment of 9-1. Should I therefore back it? Lets say I do back him and he's outpaced at a key point in the race (as he was last time here in identical conditions). That's really going to grate. If I leave him alone and he wins I can at least console myself with the thought that I just got the assessment of him wrong. Thoughts?

This is the whole crux of the value betting argument IMO. Do you take things to complete value extreme, accept that every horse has a chance of winning merely due to their participation, and back all that beat the tissue, or do you be more reserved and somehow apply a filter to come up with a final shortlist and only consider those that you think have a good chance of winning and are value. I am now in the same school of thought as you K, there were only three or four horses in that race I would have backed, even if offered 50/1 about Fastnet Storm for example I wouldnt have taken it.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

I'll take Mattamia to end my bad run in the 3.10 at Chepstow at 11-2. Suited by g/f ground this one struggled in bad ground on his reappearance in a decent class 3 at Nottingham.

Agreed, i'm on this one also.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary This is, by a long way, the single worst run I've had in my 20+ years. It's come at a time when I'm trying to expand the number of bets I'm having. This is what's happened (on a smaller scale) every other time I've tried this approach. I've just given up earlier on previous occasions. If I look at all my results from each 'attempt' as a whole they're dreadful. I started this thread with the aim of not giving in this time and a belief that all I needed to do was stick with it. The results just don't offer any encouragement at all though. When do you concede that something just doesn't work for you, no matter how well it may work for others? Is stopping now quiting or is it recognising and acting on the facts? About the only thing I'm clear on is that I'm knackered having looked at racing most days for the last 8 weeks and the temptation to revert back to my comfort zone has never been stronger. Not sure what I'll do, or whether this bad feeling will pass in a few hours but I've given back a good few quid of last years winnings so far and can't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I can see an 'emergency exit' though and may well pass through it

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Just done some maths on the current run of 24 losers. At the odds I've taken it's been a 32-1 chance. Therefore, I'm going to get a run like this once in every 768 bets on average. Less frequently if, as I hope, I'm taking over the odds and the true chance of defeat shorter. I've lost just over 7% of my cash betting bank on the year so far (more than the level stake points loss on here due to different staking) and nearly 19% in this losing run. The one bright point from this is that the bank is clearly sufficient in all but the most severe of bad runs. It's a bad run, but I can cope with worse. I think!

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary So much good racing on today that I can't possibly give up yet! However, if all these lose I'll go into hiding for a while I think. Chester 3.25 I like the favourite Brae Hill in this and I'm sure he'll go well on a course he does well at. He's short though at 9-4 and I'm backing Dance and Dance each way at a bigger price (8-1) as he also likes the track and has scope to improve. Chester 5.10 I'm on Kidlat here each way. We discussed this animal in length the other day at Haydock and I was convinced conditions weren't right for him there. He's back up in trip here and this track should suit his front running style. At 12-1 he's too big. York 3.40 I'm taking a chance on Rievaulx World to bounce back to form off a good mark, each way at 40-1 Haydock 3.00 Borderlescott at 4-1 should have come on enough from his seasonal debut to take this. I backed Equiano last time out and he did it well but this time he has Benbaun taking him on for the lead and I think they'll set this up for Bastiman's runner. Haydock 4.05 I'm giving Brierty another chance each way at 8-1. I backed her at Ripon when she got no sort of a run and 5f was too sharp for at Thirsk last week. Back at 6f today, she's a sprinter in form. Goodwood 2.15 Jonny Mudball can be excused hi run on the wrong side of the track at Newmarket last time. I also think he'll like the better ground today and at 13-2 is the bet. Goodwood 2.45 Record Breaker each way at 8-1 represents good value. I backed him two outings ago and he was never put into the race. Ignore last time as he doesn't act on Soft and he's well handicapped. Goodwood 5.35 Moynahan has a poor strike rate but goes well on the track, is in form and is well handicapped each way at 7-1. Phew!

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Goodwood 5.35 Moynahan has a poor strike rate but goes well on the track, is in form and is well handicapped each way at 7-1. Phew!

:nana 32 on the trot. Bad run broken - hopefully

[Stevet1859]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary :clap Get in!! well done Kithanga

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Steve. One bet so far for tomorrow at Windsor in the 7.10 race and I like the look of Earlsmedic in this. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding his last run at Ripon as he hung badly right there on his seasonal debut last season as well. He then went on to win at Yarmouth with the visor back on and I'm looking for a similar return to form tomorrow in that piece of equipment. Both the front two in the market don't appeal to me at all and at 14-1 I'm going for a win bet as it's one of those where you're either very right or very wrong.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Well done mate :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Stu, see you had a good day today too, well done. Earlsmedic ran poorly on Monday finishing last of all. That's the danger with picking outsiders sometimes. Tomorrow at Ayr I'm hopeful that Sirenuse can win me some back at the 7-2 that's available this evening. She has a good draw in trap 11 near the rail and showed her best form last time out in good to firm. She appears to be on the upgrade and that's the main reason for the selection.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Alright mate, just wondering on your general views on this race. Looks like there will be a pretty strong pace i think with Sirenuse and a couple of others who like to be up there. Sirenuse is definitely of interest, 4lb rise seems very fair.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Hi Ram, It does look a pacey race yes and if anything that's my one concern regarding the selection. However, the way she took them apart at Thirsk last week was impressive and I'm not sure there's anything in the field that'll be able to go with her on that performance. It was also only her second race on fastish ground and she seemed to like it. Doctor Parkes looks a possible dropping back to the minimum but I don't like the draw in trap one as it gives him no cover. The Nifty Fox looks well handicapped but appears to need softer ground to show his best. Igoyougo was backed by me against Sirenuse last time and was outpaced throughout before staying on so I can't see that beating her with only a 4lb pull. Five Star Junior seems best at 6f to me. City Dancer was 30lbs below it's best of last year on it's seasonal debut so would have to have come on a lot for that run. Grisson has looked one paced on this ground (best run on soft). Rothsay Dancer is well handicapped on hist best form and has a good shout if back to his best especially with the likely strong pace and Royal Intruder doesn't look that well weighted to me. Therefore, I think about 5-2 would be my price for Sirenuse as I feel she's very well suited to the conditions and has scope for further improvement. What's your view?

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Hi Ram, It does look a pacey race yes and if anything that's my one concern regarding the selection. However, the way she took them apart at Thirsk last week was impressive and I'm not sure there's anything in the field that'll be able to go with her on that performance. It was also only her second race on fastish ground and she seemed to like it. Doctor Parkes looks a possible dropping back to the minimum but I don't like the draw in trap one as it gives him no cover. The Nifty Fox looks well handicapped but appears to need softer ground to show his best. Igoyougo was backed by me against Sirenuse last time and was outpaced throughout before staying on so I can't see that beating her with only a 4lb pull. Five Star Junior seems best at 6f to me. City Dancer was 30lbs below it's best of last year on it's seasonal debut so would have to have come on a lot for that run. Grisson has looked one paced on this ground (best run on soft). Rothsay Dancer is well handicapped on hist best form and has a good shout if back to his best especially with the likely strong pace and Royal Intruder doesn't look that well weighted to me. Therefore, I think about 5-2 would be my price for Sirenuse as I feel she's very well suited to the conditions and has scope for further improvement. What's your view?

The ones of interest to me at the moment are Sirenuse, Igoyougo, Rothsay Dancer and Five Star Junior. Igoyougo didnt get the race to suit lto, was poorly away when he needs to be up with the pace in my opinion. Seemed to be progressing nicely before then so could close this time out if away well. 4lb doesnt look to be enough to reverse form with Sirenuse so i'm still unsure. As you said about Rothsay Dancer, well handicapped and should be suited by strong pace. She's not running too badly at the moment, but seems to be held up too far back, leaving herself with too much to do nearer the end? Five Star Junior looks well handicapped based on runs from last year in better races so could be worth a punt dropping to 5f price depending. I'm very close to backing Sirenuse but theres something in the back of my mind saying Igoyougo is better than his last run suggests and the 4lb may be enough. Will have to sleep on it.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm making some permanent changes to this thread from here on in and I'll explain the reasons and why I believe I'm now set for a major increase in profitability for the remainder of the season. As you know, I set out this year to improve my number of bets and that has been achieved, although lately at the expense of profitability. However, it's not been a wasted exercise. Far from it. I've been stuck for years in a mode of not being able to change for fear of losing. I knew there were more bets out there and I was finding it very frustrating, despite winning well. The latest bad run that I went on has got me used to losing and the fact that I can't control when the winners will come or the quality of the ride given or the luck in running. In fact, at the odds I back at the losing run was nowhere near as bad as it could have been statistically from a random sample of 75 bets. With it happening on the flat it's also made me wonder whether I should have given up the jumps a few years ago because of a couple of bad seasons (low profit in one an a loss in the other). Therefore, I may be backing over the jumps again for the first time in ages later in the year. Each way betting has always been used by me to reduce losing runs and to 'not lose' on a race. However, it's not protected me at all in the long run, only just returning a profit and nowhere near winning back the 'win' element of a bet. I'd have been significantly better off backing win only and accepting the losing runs as a neccessary part of the process. In fact, backing more than one in a race on occasions appears the best approach if both are significantly over priced. What was most frustrating though is that once again, things started well and then turned bad, which isn't the first time this has happened when I've tried to go for more bets. Every time, I've blamed the 'losseness' and gone back to a tighter approach. However, there's possibly another explanation and this came about in conversation the other day with one of the backers that has followed my tips for many years. And it's a more simple explanation too. Basically, he did a review of my results over a few years to look for any trends (I think he realised I needed help!) and he stumbled on some very interesting facts that I'd not noticed at all. My most profitable bets are as follows: 1. Saturday & Sunday (after a midweek break) 2. Days that I've been off work 3. Periods when I've studied a low volume of races (i.e. kept it tight) My worst periods have been: 1. Toward the end of a long run of study days (i.e. final day of Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood) 2. A couple of weeks after increasing the amount of races studied (to increase number of bets) I went back and checked results myself and it seems correct. So I now have a very different possible explanation for why I suffer when increasing the number of bets. It's possibly just plain old fatigue that's leading to poor performance. And it makes sense too, especially with the trend become more pronounced as I get older and less able to focus for hours on end after a full day at work. I even mentioned in the thread the other day that I was feeling knackered and it makes total sense that I'm unlikely to be at the top of my game when I'm over tired. It could be completely wrong, but it sounds right and it's worth trying to do something about it and see if things improve. So here's what I'm going to try for a while. For a start I'll bet win only and occasionally on more than one in a race. I'll study on a Saturday and Sunday, Bank Holidays, days off and the occasional Monday when study can be done when fresh on a Sunday evening, or the first day of a festival meeting when, again, I can be sure of being reasonably fresh. Sure, I'm going to miss loads of good racing, but logic and the results are telling me that maybe I can't do a full days work, attend to kids and other family commitments and then give 100% to studying the form on a midweek evening. What I will do though is continue to have more bets on the days I do choose to study. That's how I'll increase the bets, by slackening the criteria, not by studying more races. It's got to be worth a try! The results from the thread to this point are 75 bets for 9 winners and a loss of 8.115 points. I'm going to draw a line under these results and start again from zero. I'll report the P&L at the end of each month rather than weekly and will report both the new P&L and the total (including results to date) as I want to see how much difference it makes. Hope that's ok with everyone. Finally, I'd like to thank everyone for their comments and support on the thread, it's appreciated. I'll be back tomorrow (after two days off) with a new start and hopefully some winning bets! K