Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

monsieur joe didnt get the race to suit did he K' date=' im ignoring his run, having backed him at Yarmouth previously, im keeping an eye on him for when granted a proper pace. Good luck today.[/quote'] Yeh, he could probably have done with being a bit closer to the pace. But he ran well and I've noted him for future as he stumbled going into the dip too. Yours was a great pick though. Onto the Newmarket card and it's now Good to Soft so worth waiting for the rain to ease as I now know what I'm working with. The downside to that approach is that you usually miss all the odds, especially when Pricewise or Hugh Taylor pick your fancy out and that's whats happened to me in the first so will have to bypass that race now. The first bet on this card goes in the 2.40 and is an each way bet at 6-1 on Moonlife a progressive filly that has proven form in the going and looked to be learning from her racing when easily winning a Listed contest on her latest start. She was Group placed as a 2yo and has been retained in training by Godolphin which is a good sign. Both the fav and 2nd fav are obvious dangers but are either troubled by softer ground/need the race or are unproven on the softer surface. Therefore, I'll take the proven one in the ground that's got a progressive profile and proven Group class form. Bet number two is one I'm really keen on despite the number of runners and goes in the 25 runner 3.55 sprint. In this I'm looking for youth, potential and a progressive profile and all three are in evidence with Medicean Man, each way at 20-1. The trainer knows the time of day and has booked Dettori for this improving sprinter. Proven at 6f, he won at 5f on his seasonal debut at Wolves before finding the pace too hot over 5f at Beverley on his latest start. His previous progression was all at 6f on good or softer and I think he's got a great chance at a big price in this. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Sunday again so time for the weekly update and despite a blank day today it's been another fairly good week overall with two decent priced winners and most selections giving their running. Totals now stand at 35 bets, 6 winners and a profit of 7.175. It's very early but I'm happy that it's in line with my target so early in the season as it's not an easy time of year to make money. Time also to reflect on how the 'experiment' is going and how I've compared to a similar stage last season. After the Guineas meeting I'd had just 6 bets had produced 2 winners at 11-8 and 12-1 with one each way 2nd at 6-1 and obviously a very good ROI. Looking at it a different way, after 35 bets (reached on June 21st) I'd nailed 8 winners and an ROI of 46%. So no comparison really, either way I look at it I'm not getting anywhere near the same return. I've taken some time to think about this and ask myself whether I'm happy with this new way of betting and whether I'm actually being realistic with my aim of about 300 bets and a 10-20% ROI. Here's my thinking and I'd like your thoughts please ....... My strike rate over the last 2 seasons is now 20%. That's lower than it has been in the past, but purely down to my style of betting changing and moving away from the shorter prices and onto those that I believe offer more value. So to gain a 20% ROI I've got to be averaging odds of 5-1 against each bet. Looking at a large sample of races the sort of price range that wins about 20% of the time is 7-2. So that immediately puts things into perspective. To overturn the bookies profit margin and create one for myself I've got to be correctly identifying horses with that sort of price difference (finding 5-1 shots that should be 7-2 for example). There are two questions that come to mind from this. Firstly, how many races will there be that the bookies make that degree of identifyable mistake? Secondly, how much more than 5-1 will I actually need to offset all those times it's me that makes the mistake about the horses chance. Lets say that I get it wrong only about 15% of the time (not unreasonable). I'm then going to need more than an average 5-1 to offset those errors, taking me more towards the 11-2 mark. Back to question one above. How many of the races studied will have an animal so badly priced that's identifyable beforehand? Given the time involved in studying a race in depth it limits the number of races studied per day and the logical conclusion is (not too surprisingly) that the amount of bets and ROI are linked. Lots of bets equals betting on more marginal situations (because there aren't stand out prices in every event) or studying in less depth to cover more races (and making more pricing errors). Both situations must equal lower ROI so is it worth it having more bets? Ok, so with that in mind I have considered whether going back to fewer bets is the answer. Lets now turn our attention to volatility of returns. I've used the Excel RAND feature to look at how backing true 4-1 shots at 5-1 turns out over a number of bets. Starting with 50 bets per season over 10 samples (years): Returns of 48, 54, 60, 42, 78, 42, 42, 48, 54, 66, 36 a best of +28 and a worst of -14 and 6 losing years and that's with a guaranteed 20% edge! Now with 400 bets per sample, the 10 years looks like so: Returns of 396, 516, 462, 564, 510, 504, 510, 534, 492, 444, 534 gives only one losing year. Therefore, the reality is that you need the turnover to reduce the volatility even on a guaranteed 20% profit margin. Even then you'd have had a bad year once in ten and that's not due to you being out of form or not reading the races correctly, it's just luck. But, as summised above, the moment you push for the extra bets, the margin drops. Lets run that 400 bets with a 10% margin instead of 20%. Returns of 539, 423, 467, 412, 423, 462, 385, 451, 473, 517, 423 again giving just one losing year. So what does that tell me. Well, I think it says that high profit margin is not enough due to the volatility of returns. A significant sacrifice of profit margin (by half) has a lower impact on profitability of an individual sample (year) than lady luck does. What that means for me is that I feel I'm still on the right track and that 10-20% ROI may not be unreasonable. If anything I should be aiming to bet even more often (accept less of a margin and study in less depth) and not worry about coming in around the lower end that ROI range. I may even smooth out my annual returns and do better overall. What do you think? The other thing to note from this exercise is that no matter how good you are, that 1 year in 10 will hit at some time. Even on the best winning year from the last sample (539) there was a run of 3 wins from 36 and a longest losing run of 25 straight defeats to cope with on the guaranteed return of +10% That tells me another important thing. Keep chipping away, no matter how bad (or good) the short term results are, because they're purely down to luck. So whilst I'm pleased to be ahead, it's the end of the year total that matters and I've got to be considering more options, not less. Thoughts and comments welcome. K

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary i think you are right k, a punter can get a false idea of how good or bad they are based on a small sample of bets. You need several hundred bets imo before you can confidently rule out luck. I would personally sacrifice a big yield for greater profit, as profit is money that you can live off or bet out of, whereas yield is a bit of a red herring. different methods work for different people i suppose, i cant sit on my wallet for days at a time because i like to have regular action, as i fell it enables you to evolve quicker and discover and edge sooner. If i only bet once a day i may wait weeks for a bad run to end and that will cloud judgement, whereas with several bets in one day the bad runs can be over in the space of a feq days, sometimes the same day. Although, that said, im assuming that by having multiple bets all in the same day, equal effort is going into researching them as if i only had one a day.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary 4.25 Windsor Hollow Green 8-1 each way. Proven in going, class, weight and 4 time course winner, 3 times at the trip. Favourite unproven on soft

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary 4.00 Kempton Desert Kiss 9-2 win. Good draw, in form and suited by the track & trip.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

i think you are right k' date=' a punter can get a false idea of how good or bad they are based on a small sample of bets. You need several hundred bets imo before you can confidently rule out luck. I would personally sacrifice a big yield for greater profit, as profit is money that you can live off or bet out of, whereas yield is a bit of a red herring. different methods work for different people i suppose, i cant sit on my wallet for days at a time because i like to have regular action, as i fell it enables you to evolve quicker and discover and edge sooner. If i only bet once a day i may wait weeks for a bad run to end and that will cloud judgement, whereas with several bets in one day the bad runs can be over in the space of a feq days, sometimes the same day. Although, that said, im assuming that by having multiple bets all in the same day, equal effort is going into researching them as if i only had one a day.[/quote'] Yes, as you say each to their own. I'm kinda happy so far with having more bets and, if anything, I'm enjoying it more and keeping in touch with the racing better too. The hard part is that it's not easy to change a winning method. I first turned from losing to winning by concentrating on my 'naps'. I've had some up and down years (like the volatility above) but overall the profit has been steadily on the up. The only thing that's been consistent is that I've tried to introduce more bets on more than one occasion and branched out in more handicaps (non handicaps being my most profitable). Every time though I've pulled back as it's felt too risky and the results haven't gone well. It seems easy to do when you think about it logically as above but it's not in practice. Over the years most people (bar one) have asked me why I'm bothering changing and tell me I should stick to the way that I win, etc, etc. But deep down I know that's wrong and I have to take more risk to earn more cash. So far so good this year. As I said, I'm learning more and even getting better on handicaps than I was last year. I'm not always picking the winners but I'm either close or understand better why something won. Thanks for the feedback. You're the only one who's bothered to reply despite about 50 viewings. I won't give up the new betting approach but I'm seriously considering binning this thread as it's a lot of work to keep it up to date and I'm not getting the two way dialogue I was hoping for. I'm wondering whether it's worth it, hence the rather short reasoning on todays two. p.s. notice you've gone for the same as me in the 4.00 at Kempton. At least I won't come second (or worse) to you this time! Good luck. K

[philss_99]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

i think you are right k' date=' a punter can get a false idea of how good or bad they are based on a small sample of bets. You need several hundred bets imo before you can confidently rule out luck. I would personally sacrifice a big yield for greater profit, as profit is money that you can live off or bet out of, whereas yield is a bit of a red herring. different methods work for different people i suppose, i cant sit on my wallet for days at a time because i like to have regular action, as i fell it enables you to evolve quicker and discover and edge sooner. If i only bet once a day i may wait weeks for a bad run to end and that will cloud judgement, whereas with several bets in one day the bad runs can be over in the space of a feq days, sometimes the same day. Although, that said, im assuming that by having multiple bets all in the same day, equal effort is going into researching them as if i only had one a day.[/quote'] Your spot on there Fintron. If I have a couple of bets a day then I might go a couple of weeks before I hit a winning run, But with more selections on a regular basis my strike / place rate is very good. Its a question of percentages I suppose. But If covering all bets, Yeah your outlay is more but the rewards can be very good, And it can breed a little more confidence with a few selections per day. Keep it Going Kithanga :ok

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Yes' date=' as you say each to their own. I'm kinda happy so far with having more bets and, if anything, [b']I'm enjoying it more and keeping in touch with the racing better too. The hard part is that it's not easy to change a winning method. I first turned from losing to winning by concentrating on my 'naps'. I've had some up and down years (like the volatility above) but overall the profit has been steadily on the up. The only thing that's been consistent is that I've tried to introduce more bets on more than one occasion and branched out in more handicaps (non handicaps being my most profitable). Every time though I've pulled back as it's felt too risky and the results haven't gone well. It seems easy to do when you think about it logically as above but it's not in practice. Over the years most people (bar one) have asked me why I'm bothering changing and tell me I should stick to the way that I win, etc, etc. But deep down I know that's wrong and I have to take more risk to earn more cash. So far so good this year. As I said, I'm learning more and even getting better on handicaps than I was last year. I'm not always picking the winners but I'm either close or understand better why something won. Thanks for the feedback. You're the only one who's bothered to reply despite about 50 viewings. I won't give up the new betting approach but I'm seriously considering binning this thread as it's a lot of work to keep it up to date and I'm not getting the two way dialogue I was hoping for. I'm wondering whether it's worth it, hence the rather short reasoning on todays two. p.s. notice you've gone for the same as me in the 4.00 at Kempton. At least I won't come second (or worse) to you this time! Good luck. K

I think that's quite important, making a profit and enjoying it more than before seems good to me. Keeping in touch with racing better may help you produce more profit come the end of the season than previous years so in my opinion you should try your 'more bets' plan till the end of the season and reassess then.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks for the comments guys, appreciated. Newc 2.40 Destiny's Dream win 9-2. Conditions in it's favour (ground, trip, class) and in form Newc 4.40 Whispered Times win 3-1. Good run latest, likes fast ground. Well drawn. Sharp Eclipse feared. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Also 8.30 Catterick Lost In Paris win 11-4. Unexposed at trip, in good form, well drawn and suited by track and ground.

[philss_99]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Thanks for the comments guys, appreciated. Newc 2.40 Destiny's Dream win 9-2. Conditions in it's favour (ground, trip, class) and in form Newc 4.40 Whispered Times win 3-1. Good run latest, likes fast ground. Well drawn. Sharp Eclipse feared. K

2nd & 1st :clap Well Done K :ok ... Keep it up.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks philss At Chester in the 3.15 Hamish McGonagall is well handicapped and is a win bet at 5-1 for me today K

[BillyHills]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Kithanga, Dont get too downhearted about the lack of replies, its the same for me and a few others, especially over in the ATR systems section, it used to bother me that some members get loads of 'well dones' when they get the odd winner and even 'hard lucks' when they get losers! Its just how it is and its even more annoying when you put lots of work into a post like the one above and it seems you are talking to yourself half the time. These days most of the guys log on see whats been tipped and log off, its a mental world we live in and no-one has the time anymore for proper discussion. A few of the Mods have discussed putting more threads up that are not just tipping columns but they have recieved little interest but we still try from time to time. You also have to understand that a lot of the guys are at the beginning of their punting careers and feel they are not qualified enough yet to answer some of your detailed queries and dont want to come over as inadequate, they probably find your posts very interesting and informative, as I do, but cant add anything as yet. Dont know about you but I find having a thread helps me focus much more and very worthwhile doing even if it feels a lonely place at times, keep it going Kithanga. For what its worth, I think your maybe aiming high with your yield figures, most systems/methods/strategies are considered successful (over time) if they achieve anything over 5%, I would stick to the races you know, I find that since just concentrating on Novices i feel more confident about the form and get a better angle on the races, its also takes less time to come to a decision as you know a lot of the background already. With so much racing these days I find it impossible to open up a racecard and look at all of the races, I was beginning not to enjoy it, it was a chore to get through them all, I was rushing and only doing half the job and if theres one thing I have learnt over the years, its that you only get out what you put in with racing. It was a very important point you made about keeping in touch with racing, it all depends on how much time you can devote to it, I have enough time to do the novices justice so thats what I do, it works for me, you just cant afford to spread yourself too thin when profits are at stake. Good luck, you seem to be doing very nicely:ok

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary well done with lost in paris, k. Was at catterick last night and said to wizzkid walter he'd gone off far too fast too early. I was waiting for him to cave in and get swamped but he never did, absolutely routed the field and will get hammered for that win.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Kithanga, Dont get too downhearted about the lack of replies, its the same for me and a few others, especially over in the ATR systems section, it used to bother me that some members get loads of 'well dones' when they get the odd winner and even 'hard lucks' when they get losers! Its just how it is and its even more annoying when you put lots of work into a post like the one above and it seems you are talking to yourself half the time. These days most of the guys log on see whats been tipped and log off, its a mental world we live in and no-one has the time anymore for proper discussion. A few of the Mods have discussed putting more threads up that are not just tipping columns but they have recieved little interest but we still try from time to time. You also have to understand that a lot of the guys are at the beginning of their punting careers and feel they are not qualified enough yet to answer some of your detailed queries and dont want to come over as inadequate, they probably find your posts very interesting and informative, as I do, but cant add anything as yet. Dont know about you but I find having a thread helps me focus much more and very worthwhile doing even if it feels a lonely place at times, keep it going Kithanga. For what its worth, I think your maybe aiming high with your yield figures, most systems/methods/strategies are considered successful (over time) if they achieve anything over 5%, I would stick to the races you know, I find that since just concentrating on Novices i feel more confident about the form and get a better angle on the races, its also takes less time to come to a decision as you know a lot of the background already. With so much racing these days I find it impossible to open up a racecard and look at all of the races, I was beginning not to enjoy it, it was a chore to get through them all, I was rushing and only doing half the job and if theres one thing I have learnt over the years, its that you only get out what you put in with racing. It was a very important point you made about keeping in touch with racing, it all depends on how much time you can devote to it, I have enough time to do the novices justice so thats what I do, it works for me, you just cant afford to spread yourself too thin when profits are at stake. Good luck, you seem to be doing very nicely:ok

That's pretty much how i feel.

[chestorul]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Still learning :(. GL with your bets. :hope

[gord]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary its true what bh is saying i know that i lack confidence and do not seem to have the same insights as the regular posters but i enjoy reading all the posts bh jt yours bowles ted ginger the list is endless keep up the good work and pat on the back to all at pl

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Kithanga, Dont get too downhearted about the lack of replies, its the same for me and a few others, especially over in the ATR systems section, it used to bother me that some members get loads of 'well dones' when they get the odd winner and even 'hard lucks' when they get losers! Its just how it is and its even more annoying when you put lots of work into a post like the one above and it seems you are talking to yourself half the time. These days most of the guys log on see whats been tipped and log off, its a mental world we live in and no-one has the time anymore for proper discussion. A few of the Mods have discussed putting more threads up that are not just tipping columns but they have recieved little interest but we still try from time to time. You also have to understand that a lot of the guys are at the beginning of their punting careers and feel they are not qualified enough yet to answer some of your detailed queries and dont want to come over as inadequate, they probably find your posts very interesting and informative, as I do, but cant add anything as yet. Dont know about you but I find having a thread helps me focus much more and very worthwhile doing even if it feels a lonely place at times, keep it going Kithanga. For what its worth, I think your maybe aiming high with your yield figures, most systems/methods/strategies are considered successful (over time) if they achieve anything over 5%, I would stick to the races you know, I find that since just concentrating on Novices i feel more confident about the form and get a better angle on the races, its also takes less time to come to a decision as you know a lot of the background already. With so much racing these days I find it impossible to open up a racecard and look at all of the races, I was beginning not to enjoy it, it was a chore to get through them all, I was rushing and only doing half the job and if theres one thing I have learnt over the years, its that you only get out what you put in with racing. It was a very important point you made about keeping in touch with racing, it all depends on how much time you can devote to it, I have enough time to do the novices justice so thats what I do, it works for me, you just cant afford to spread yourself too thin when profits are at stake. Good luck, you seem to be doing very nicely:ok

Thanks for the comment BH. There's loads of replies on now so I'm feeling rather guilty for having a rant. I was a bit naffed off though as I'd spent ages on Sunday posting the info and that meant I was up at 4.30 Monday morning to do all my study before other things I needed to do. Re others fear of not having enough knowledge, I can understand that too but all comments are welcome because we're all learning and everyone's opinions are of interest to me. None of us knows all the answers in this game, so come keep contributing guys. Re ROI, maybe you're right but I think I have to set 10% as the minimum as that's what I had to make in the days of betting tax just to break even and I want to at least maintain that level of performance especially as we have BOG to help these days. Thanks again for the comments, appreciated

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

well done with lost in paris' date=' k. Was at catterick last night and said to wizzkid walter he'd gone off far too fast too early. I was waiting for him to cave in and get swamped but he never did, absolutely routed the field and will get hammered for that win.[/quote'] Cheers mate, yes he p****d it didn't he. All P&L bets are level stake but personally he was my first maximum bet of the year and I was really pleased to see him run so well. Hope you enjoyed your evening out and it was profitable for you. Never been to Catterick but have done all the other flat tracks over your side of the hill. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary south eastern ram, Chestorul, gord, Understood, but I'm interested in all thoughts so don't feel like you can't comment. There could be something that you say that prompts me to think about another angle that I've overlooked. I'm in at the detail level so may suffer from the 'Can't see the wood for the trees' sort of thing. I'd also wanted the diary to be as two way as possible so I also welcome questions too if you want to understand something about the game, or a selection I've posted, or the reasoning, etc. As I said, it's meant to be two way so hopefully I can help you guys with improving your game too at the same time I'm improving mine. If I don't know, I'll say so but will try to help as we can all learn from each other K :ok

[RussP]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary K, as you know I really enjoy your thread. A few of our bets have been the same and you concentrate on the handicaps, just like me:D Don't get hung up on yield though. Personally, I love having a high yield but the problem is the very low number of bets I have. What would I rather have: a) 300 bets with a 10% yield OR b) 50 bets with a 50% yield On the face of it, most people would say option b) but money pays the mortgage, not yield, and therefore I'd have to go with a) every time. 30pts profit is better than 25pts, no matter how many bets. It's easier to have a higher yield with a lower number of bets because you're only putting your max confidence bets on. It's all about opinions and preferences. It's just that if I put on lots of bets, I'd have too many losers to feel comfortable which is why I bet the way I do. Fin, Bowles, Chris & others, on the other hand, like to keep their hand in every day. Again, there's nothing wrong with that, it's down to personal preference. Keep going at it mate, some super bets so far and I'm sure there's more to come. As BH says, don't get hung up by the number of replies. What your own thread does is focus the mind and it's great to look back on the good times when you hit the inevitable bad patch.:ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Russ, I'll try no to get too hung up on the replies. I think I was just a bit tired that day having been up early to do the form. I've just the one wager today as most of the races either aren't my thing or have no animals in them with the qualities I look for. I'm betting at Ffos Las in the 7.30 each way on Jesse James at 8-1. He's unexposed having run only a few times and he looked as though he still needed the race when one paced up the hill at Pontefract three weeks ago. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary The change in the ground has now prompted me to have an each way bet on Paquerettza in the 5.05 at Chester at 10-1. The low draw and front running tactics along with proven soft ground form are the reasons. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary She didn't have the pace to get to the front, something that I can now see having reviewed her form again. It was there in the form book all along just rushed my prep due to impending off time. Last minute, under researched bets. How many more times will I need to bet like that before I learn. :wall Surprised about the winner though as I backed him at Goodwood on Stewards cup day last season when he floundered on g/s ground. Either it wasn't that bad ground or he's on the up. Still, the next one will win and get me ahead for the day :hope

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Bad day yesterday with a poorly researched selection and the other being backed from 8-1 into 7-2 and finishing last. Hopefully, I'll have more luck today with two at Chester. Will post bets at other meetings later if I get time. 4.30 Last Sovereign each way at 7-1. In good form, front runner who is drawn well. Good jockey booking stat's for trainer and proven in conditions. 5.05 Interdiamonds each way also at 7-1. In good form, consistent and as sole front runner expected to get an easy time up front. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary One to add at Ripon in the 6.55 and I expect Brierty to go well for my win bet at 9-2. He's a well drawn prominent runner on the rail and is in good form. His won on his side last time out in a race run in a good time. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Hoping for a bit more luck in running today but didn't get it. First one backed down from 7-1 into 4-1 and got no sort of run through and the final one was also punted in from 9-2 to 3-1 and got boxed in. Going to hit back with Splendourinthegrass in the Ascot 3.25 tomorrow each way at 25-1. Unexposed and in form after a win on the all weather last time and has run well at this course. A strongly run 7f should be spot on and he should go well in a fiercly competitive heat. More tomorrow. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Madly competitive racing as usual for a Saturday but plenty of opportunities. First a typo to amend above as Splendorinthegrass hasn't run at Ascot and it should say has run well at a similar course (Newmarket). Ascot 2.50 The favourite looks strong but I think she'll be better for the run and will be being targetted for some Group races later on. One who will be primed up is last years winner Good Again who's an each way bet at 12-1 with two firms. She has excellent form on uphill tracks winning twice here and at Ponte and has every chance. First City and Rafiqa should also run well at ok prices. Ascot 5.10 Secret Asset comes here in top form with ground conditions more in her favour than at Newmarket on Sunday. She unexposed over 6f and at 7-1 is a good each way bet. Getcater is up significantly in class and it'll be interesting to see how he copes. Noverre To Go's stable form put me off that previous course winner although he could spring a surprise along with Rulesnregulations and they are dangers. Thirsk 7.05 Red Kestrel is wirth an each way wager at 20-1 in this. I was on Destiny's Dream at Newcastle the other day when she went close but I don't like her draw out wide in this as she usually needs cover. Bollin Greta looks one paced and better on a more galloping tack. The selection is well drawn and significantly lower in class here than when running some goodrace in class 2/3 company last season. There's a chance she was unsuited by the ground at Donny first time out and with the yard being in such good form is worth taking a chance with in this. Obviously he could just be on the downgrade but it's worth finding out because we won't get 20's again if he isn't K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Time to update the thread for the week and it's not been too bad really. I found three winners and one placed horse from 15 bets and a profit of 1.55 points. There were some real lowlights in the week though as it started better than it finished and a couple of heavily backed animals just didn't perform at all and came in last. Most upsetting of all was yesterday where previous selections that received less than perfect rides (Medicean Man and Destiny's Dream) went in and beat my selections. Still, I ended up in front and that's the main thing. That brings the totals to: Bets 50, wins 8, profit 8.725 A lower strike rate than required is keeping the profit down and I'll need to work on that for the next 50 bets. Somewhere around the 20% mark is what I'm after overall and I'll be working hard to achieve that, although a little luck in running would be appreciated too. K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I thought, as there's no flat racing today, that I'd do a post on form study that hopefully some will find interesting. Here's how I went about the study of the 2.50 from Ascot yesterday. Firstly, a quick note about my methods. I have three main areas on which I concentrate. They are: 1. CDGD : Course, Distance, Going and Draw. Taking all these attributes together, I score the horse (1-10) on how well it is suited to the conditions under which it is competing. 2. FTI : Form, Trainer form, Improvement. This is looking at how well the horse and yard are performing andhow much improvement can be reasonably expected from the horse 3. CHWJ : Class, Handicap mark, Weight, Jockey. This focusses on the class of the race, how well handicapped the horse is and the amount of physical weight it is being asked to carry and whether or not the Jockey is a help or a hinderence. The scores are then added up and notes reviewed to find a good value selection that's got a good chance of winning by focussing mainly on the top three. I find using this method helps to ensure that I'm not just picking bigger priced horses all the time. Onto the 2.50 and these are my notes from yesterday. You'll see that it was a close decision and not a good result! Good Again 9,4,6 = 19. Excellent course (wins at Ascot & Ponte) and distance form. Concerns over current well being after suffering injury at Meydan. Slightly higher mark offset by good claimer. First City 6,6,4 = 16. Has some form on uphill courses and may be best suited by ground firmer than good. Good seasonal debut within a few lbs of best. Sarah Park 3,4,4 = 11. Doubts about ability on uphill tracks. Seasonal debut and little scope after 20 runs. Significantly higher mark than when last running well. Alsace Lorraine 8,7,8 = 23. Strong course form, distance possibly a little sharp. Likely to be fairly well primed up but seasonal debut and aiming for Group races later. Bags of scope. Has run well off similar handicap mark. Badait Alzaman 3,2,3 = 8. Poor on all counts Rafiqa 6,6,5 = 17. Ok runs at Salisbury and Ponte. 9 runs, so has scope. Handicap mark looks a little stiff. Blue Angel 7,7,5 = 19. Good course and distance run on debut and in form with scope after only 6 runs. Trainer going well. Concerns over handicap mark of 102. Arabian Mirage 3,2,3 = 8. Poor on all counts. Victoria Sponge 4,3,4 = 11. Concerns over suitability of course with best efforts at Epsom/Goodwood. Not in form and 6lbs higher than last win. Seradim 3,4,3 = 10. Poor on all counts. Flora Trevelyan 5,6,6 = 17. Won 5 runner at Sandown but slow time. Maybe 10f better. Seasonal debut and has scope. Every chance off current mark. Off Chance 7,8,5 = 20. Has won at Carlisle & Newcastle but lower class. In form & trainer flying. Up in class with last win from horses rated up to 79 (74-95 today) maybe outclassed. Clairvoyance 5,7,5 = 17. No turf or uphill form but never encountered it either. In form, respected trainer in this type of race, unexposed. Handicap mark reasonable. Charlotte Point 4,2,3 = 9. Little evidence of a chance on recent form and weights. So that gives us a points score (and best morning price) of: Alsace Lorraine 23 (11-2) Off Chance 20 (8-1) Good Again 19 (12-1) Blue Angel 19 (6-1) Rafiqa 17 (14-1) Clairvoyance 17 (8-1) Flora Trevelyan 17 (9-1) First City 16 (14-1) Sarah Park 11 Victoria Sponge 11 Seradim 10 Charlotte Point 9 Badait Alzaman 8 Arabian Mirage 8 As you can see I only noted prices for those above a rating of 15. It indicates that the favourite is strong and not at all badly priced at 11-2. In fact all the top three look well priced due to the shorter prices on Blue Angel, Clairvoyance and Flora Trevelyan all of which I have one significant doubt about. Rafiqa and First City look to be slightly over priced and offer a bit of value. Of the top three only one, the favourite has no significant doubts. Good Again has a current form/wellbeing doubt and Off Chance has a class doubt. There's very little (1 point) between the two and I therefore decide that, at the prices, Off Chance has to be removed, leaving me with Good Again and Alsace Lorraine. It now a question of whether I take a chance on the well being of Good Again at 12-1 or go for the near proven ability of the favourite at half the price. It's first time up over a distance that may be sharp enough and I decide to go for the tastier odds and tkae a chance with Good Again. Result: 1. Alsace Lorraine 6-1 2. First City 12-1 3. Off Chance 13-2 Good Again was backed in from 12-1 to 13-2 and finshed 10th, soon beaten from 2f out and her well being was her undoing. I now review the race against my scores to see how they performed and note any surprises like animals returning to form or (like Off Chance) one performing well in an area I had a concern, in this case the class which he coped with fine. Overall I was happy with the race. Yes, I top rated the winner and he was a backable price, but without as much margin as Good Again who looked as though he should have been about 8-1. Hope you find that useful. K