dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules CATTERICK 14:45 DAN BUOY F/C 4/1 LINGFIELD 16:05 PRIVATE OLLEY F/C 3/1 WOLVES 19:05 EVEN BOLDER F/C 9/2 Again no outsiders :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules results from yesterday SOUTHWELL 15:00 CHARGING INDIAN F/C 4/1...+48.1 WINCANTON 14:20 GIFTED LEADER F/C 7/4...-10 WOLVES 18:20 KIRSTYS LAD F/C 9/2...-10 total stake = 290 total profit = +148.75 total yield = 51.29% strike rate = 9/29 = 31.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules Interesting read. This thread has lead me to revisit the massey custom report using your initial rules as a solid base. With a few more specific criteria used I've managed to see a 109.7% return. I've also taken out 2004 as this seems to be a statistical anomaly that no amount of tinkering can improve by any worthwhile measure. My additions if you are interested... Exclude 20+ runners Exclude Firm going (I guess are horses aren't used to it in this wet country haha!) Exclude odds of under 2/1 No fallers in last 3 3+ career runs Ran 3+ days ago Exclude horses that have run 7+ times in last 90 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules interesting matey, i like some of them. i wanna remain practical at the same time though. how many selections over the time period did that added criteria call up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules interestingly enough i removed 2004 and all races 3m and above and it jumped to 108.3%, so im definitely taking that on board. on average it only removes 1 selection a month but im guessing that selection rarely wins at that distance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules interesting matey, i like some of them. i wanna remain practical at the same time though. how many selections over the time period did that added criteria call up? It was actually closer to 120.00% return in the end as I'd missed the 19 days bit. approx 550-600 selections a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules interesting matey, i like some of them. i wanna remain practical at the same time though. how many selections over the time period did that added criteria call up? They all seemed quite logical to me but I'm no expert. Out of interest which do you like and which not so much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules Also, how the hell do I calculate average race weight?? It's doing my head in:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules Also' date=' how the hell do I calculate average race weight?? It's doing my head in:([/quote'] well if the top weight of the horses running is 11 st 10 and the bottom weight is 11 st, the average in my eyes would be 11 st 5, this is how i do it although it may be calculated on masseys site by adding all the entries and dividing it by the number of horses. you wouldnt be far off with mine though and youll struggle to find one that is actually outside the criteria. i like the firm idea from your rules but worried come the summers flat season that could wipe out a lot of selections. i like the 20+ idea, makes sense to me, i think it added 0.8% to the plan. also you mentioned around 550 selections a year, i think youll find thats in 5 years cos the data is measured over that period but im not sure, if im right this would mean 1 maybe 2 selections a week which isnt enough for my liking. at least one selection a day works for me. so im gonna remove 3 miles and above selections and work with that for now. cheers for the interest happygooner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules CATTERICK 14:45 DAN BUOY F/C 4/1...-10 LINGFIELD 16:05 PRIVATE OLLEY F/C 3/1...-10 WOLVES 19:05 EVEN BOLDER F/C 9/2...-10 total stake = 320 total profit = +118.75 total yield = 37.11% strike rate = 9/32 = 28.13% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules LINGFIELD 15:35 NICKEL SILVER 16:10 PAKTOLOS 16:45 MONTEROSSO NAAS 16:45 CURRENT RECESSION I will add forecasts ater 9am tomoro which may remove selections if under 4/6 and may mean they are an outsider selection....:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenty5094 Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules hi dann not been on here long but noticed that your last to winners charging indian and obe gold have come from adding there best r/p s/r o/r together they where top rated not the ones on the card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules well if the top weight of the horses running is 11 st 10 and the bottom weight is 11 st, the average in my eyes would be 11 st 5, this is how i do it although it may be calculated on masseys site by adding all the entries and dividing it by the number of horses. you wouldnt be far off with mine though and youll struggle to find one that is actually outside the criteria. i like the firm idea from your rules but worried come the summers flat season that could wipe out a lot of selections. i like the 20+ idea, makes sense to me, i think it added 0.8% to the plan. also you mentioned around 550 selections a year, i think youll find thats in 5 years cos the data is measured over that period but im not sure, if im right this would mean 1 maybe 2 selections a week which isnt enough for my liking. at least one selection a day works for me. so im gonna remove 3 miles and above selections and work with that for now. cheers for the interest happygooner A couple of things. Removing firm removed only 77 selections since 2005. Overall it's 3,000+ selections 3 miles + has a very good ROI for mine. I need to post up my findings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenty5094 Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules LINGFIELD 15:35 NICKEL SILVER 16:10 PAKTOLOS 16:45 MONTEROSSO NAAS 16:45 CURRENT RECESSION I will add forecasts ater 9am tomoro which may remove selections if under 4/6 and may mean they are an outsider selection....:hope:hope racing post f/c nickel silver 2/1 paktolos 10/1 monterosso 15/8 current recession 9/4 like the look of current ressesion joint top rated doine the distance and going course winner has well just doubtfull abot the jockey bt stats look good going 1/3 33% distance 1/1 100% course 1/1 100 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules Does Cheshire Prince not qualify in the 13:55 at Doncaster:unsure What am I missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenty5094 Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules not done the distance happygooner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules Oiseau De Nuit 15:25 Doncaster......? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules not done the distance happygooner Just figured that out haha! Cheers anyway:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenty5094 Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules good question done distance same jockey well weighted where is the owner ov this thread lol dann u gone is it passed your bedtime lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules not done the distance happygooner But Oiseau De Nuit has a D by the name for distance. Or does this just mean he's run this distance not necessarily won on it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenty5094 Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules not like i said done distance meaning it has done the distance sorry if im saying it wrong but im from yorkshire ya naw lol:gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules not like i said done distance meaning it has done the distance sorry if im saying it wrong but im from yorkshire ya naw lol:gimme So where on the RP can I check whether a horse has won at the distance as opposed to just run it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenty5094 Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules best way to click on the horse yo will get all its race history Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules The only way I can see is to click on each race individually. Surely there is a quicker way than that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 6, 2010 Author Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules Oiseau De Nuit 15:25 Doncaster......? morning gents, his last race was 20 days ago so he just misses out. to clarify, D means distance winner and not just run the distance, hope this helps. ill post updates after 9am Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 6, 2010 Author Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules LINGFIELD 15:35 NICKEL SILVER F/C 2/1 16:45 MONTEROSSO F/C 15/8 NAAS 16:45 CURRENT RECESSION F/C 9/4 OUTSIDER LINGFIELD 16:10 PAKTOLOS F/C 10/1 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 6, 2010 Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules All of these appear to qualify within the limited criteria. I know you are only tracking up to a ceiling odds wise. Was there anything longer that you noticed qualified but are not tracking yourself? Just saves me looking through the card again:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules LINGFIELD 15:35 NICKEL SILVER F/C 2/1...+13 16:45 MONTEROSSO F/C 15/8...+7.4 NAAS 16:45 CURRENT RECESSION F/C 9/4...-10 total stake = 350 total profit = +129.15 total yield = 36.9% strike rate = 10/35 = 28.57% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules no selections today :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: Seven Golden Rules no selections today :eyes What am I missing with these? 07-Feb Ascendant Musselburgh 07-Feb Grandad Bill Musselburgh 07-Feb John Forbes Musselburgh :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.