Seven Golden Rules

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules WOLVES 17:10 DHHAMAAN F/C 9/2 first selection removed as odds on :hope

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules

no selections today

Hi mate Just thought I'd let you know that slight variation on your system had 2 selections and both won. Not a boast at all because without your solid base there would be no variation. Kerb Appeal & Kallistro I think off the top of my head (I'm at work with no info to hand). Like I said, the ROI I managed to get was closer to 20% than 10% with these little changes. You might want to bear it in mind is all. There has not been 1 day yet with no selections and today things are pretty similar.

[Razaldo9]

Re: Seven Golden Rules

Hi mate Just thought I'd let you know that slight variation on your system had 2 selections and both won. Not a boast at all because without your solid base there would be no variation. Kerb Appeal & Kallistro I think off the top of my head (I'm at work with no info to hand). Like I said, the ROI I managed to get was closer to 20% than 10% with these little changes. You might want to bear it in mind is all. There has not been 1 day yet with no selections and today things are pretty similar.

What is different about yours then gooner? This is still looking very promising Dannkez, keep it up.:)

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules cheers raz, it still looks good, todays selection winning would prove nice as he is almost at the top end of price criteria. happyg, nice to see its going well mate, which one of my criteria have you dropped again to fit in your variation?

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules It was this if you remember: Exclude 20+ runners Exclude Firm going (I guess are horses aren't used to it in this wet country haha!) Exclude odds of under 2/1 No fallers in last 3 3+ career runs Ran 3+ days ago Exclude horses that have run 7+ times in last 90 days Jockey must have ridden 50+ rides in last 12 months. Kept it at last run 19 days max as moving it out to 25 took a big chunk of yield. Plus, the above doesn't care how many times they have won, just that they won lto. OTHER THAN THAT ALL YOUR ORIGINAL RULES STAY THE SAME. Very similar selections but a couple of different horses here and there. You were concerned at lack of betting opportunities but there has been at least 1 selection almost every day and usually 2 or more.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules messing about with those criteria dropped my selections from 2670 to 1554 at one point but took the yield from 111.4 to 117.6 but as you can see more than a thousand less selections. be interested in anyones opinion of more selections/smaller yield v less selections/higher yield. i think with a constant rate of selections coming through you can work a staking plan more effectively to rise faster but thats just me, what does anyone else think?

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules

messing about with those criteria dropped my selections from 2670 to 1554 at one point but took the yield from 111.4 to 117.6 but as you can see more than a thousand less selections. be interested in anyones opinion of more selections/smaller yield v less selections/higher yield. i think with a constant rate of selections coming through you can work a staking plan more effectively to rise faster but thats just me, what does anyone else think?

I still have around 3000 selections so not quite sure what you're doing:unsure

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules any chance you can do a screenshot of your criteria?

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules

any chance you can do a screenshot of your criteria?

I'll have a look later tonight or tomorrow as I'm out early. It doesn't actually list the criteria though does it. Just shows a page of results and then separates all the different sections depending on what you put in. Don't think all this can be put on 1 screenshot.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules WOLVES 17:10 DHHAMAAN F/C 9/2...-10 total stake = 450 total profit = +243.35 total yield = 54.08% strike rate = 14/45 = 31.11%

[Razaldo9]

Re: Seven Golden Rules Is this Adrian Massey custom report even of any use? I mean you run it then simply go back and change the criteria which are dragging the percentage down. I've got a win return % with betfair odds of 125% now and I could get it to go higher. edit 135% now/ 107% at SP

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules sorry raz i dont think i quite understand your question, of course its of use. the idea is to be able to alter the criteria and keep the selections as high as possible and also maintain the return high. i am running with 2500 selections at 111% at the moment but currently i can get it as high as 121% with 1900 selections, so the question is do i revert to the extended criteria?

[Razaldo9]

Re: Seven Golden Rules Well I mean you can take out courses where you have a low return and it is really cheating. As this is simply making the results look better. Do you have 111% at SP or on betfair estimate?

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules haha of course its not cheating, some courses may fair better on this type of system. in fact ive noticed the aw tracks work better. my original 111% was in fact BF SP, which is what you should go for everytime.

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules

Well I mean you can take out courses where you have a low return and it is really cheating. As this is simply making the results look better. Do you have 111% at SP or on betfair estimate?

You also have to look at it logically as opposed to just taking out the lower percentages. There might not be any logical reason for a track to have performed bad. In that case it would be a mere statistical anomaly. Like I mentioned before 2004, going into 2005 seems completely at odds with the next 4/5 years. Was there a reason for it or did things just not go according to the way they had done historically?! March seems a rubbish month in what I've posted before but unless anybody can show me a reason why, I won't put much stock in it.

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules The extended criteria threw up another big winner today with Lease Lend. I'm not backing these by the way (only tracking) so it's not exactly after timing.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules thanks happyg for sticking those reports up, its given me some great ideas :ok

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules no selections today

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules

thanks happyg for sticking those reports up' date=' its given me some great ideas :ok[/quote'] Care to share? I'm not just like some of the bludgers after a freebie either haha! I have plenty of my own ideas in many sports that I'll quite happily throw back and forth.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules happyg, ill PM ya

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules pre 9am selections KEMPTON 20:10 GINGER GREY LEICESTER 15:10 PLUM PUDDING LINGFIELD 16:30 FRANCO IS MY NAME

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules KEMPTON 20:10 GINGER GREY F/C 11/4 LEICESTER 15:10 PLUM PUDDING F/C 11/2 LINGFIELD 16:30 FRANCO IS MY NAME F/C 100/30 ALL 3 SELECTIONS QUALIFY :hope

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Seven Golden Rules :clapFirst 2 in :clap, :hope COME ON GINGER :hope

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules hat trick just missed out by half length and a neck :eyes

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules KEMPTON 20:10 GINGER GREY F/C 11/4...-10 LEICESTER 15:10 PLUM PUDDING F/C 11/2...+21 LINGFIELD 16:30 FRANCO IS MY NAME F/C 100/30...+19.6 total stake = 480 total profit = +273.95 total yield = 57.07% strike rate = 16/48 = 33.33%

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules pre 9am selections CLONMEL 17:05 FLEMENSFORD FFOS LAS 14:35 HORSFORD KEMPTON 18:00 ISITCOZIMCOOL SOUTHWELL 16:05 WHERE'S REILEY 16:40 YOUNG GLADIATOR FORECASTS TO FOLLOW TOMORROW

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Seven Golden Rules If you aimed for 1% increase of bank per winner and did a little (I can't believe I am about to say this) of the m-word that involves mathematically chasing loses. £20 becomes: After 100 wins £40 After 200 wins £80 After 300 wins £160 After 400 wins £320 After 500 wins £640 After 600 wins £1,280 After 700 wins £2,560 After 800 wins £5,120 After 900 wins £10,320 After 1000 wins £20,640 After 1100 wins £41,280 After 1200 wins £82,560 And would be even quicker if you aimed for this per bet made rather than per winner. I think this system might just be ideal, especially with no odds on...... wonder what the longest losing run would have been?

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules not a bad idea mate. Im sure i could back test the losing run on masseys report. As for a staking plan im considering a few options but just waitin a little longer before i implement one :ok

[happygooner]

Re: Seven Golden Rules I'll just butt in for a second while you discuss staking plans. By now every man and his dog will have read the maria laying thread where she used a ratchet. Altering stake percentage for expected s/r from historical data, this can be used in backing as well. I've used it recently on both the NFL season and MW football sheets to great effect. The plus being that wins build your bank a damn site quicker than level staking or even % staking which goes up and down. Providing you calculate a safe level before you start then your bank should never be in too much jeopardy from the expected losing runs as you would never be staking enough that you could lose the bank from the off. All you're doing in effect is starting a new bank for each set of bets. As a further safety net you can set an amount in your mind where if it becomes lost you readjust the bank accordingly. Say a loss of 30% from bank high point for example.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Seven Golden Rules mate you took the words right outta my mouth. the maria staking plan is perfect for this although i like fleets idea to. i use a form of the maria on my footy system and its working well. think it works better on systems that show a consistent strike rate like this one has done. so ill bear it in mind til im ready to set it up.