doctoritcata Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Off topic, I know 2 camps have evolved here, I'm still on the fence and I can dream can't I ? :) Sure,its a free world:) But some how i cant see it to continue any longer after the gullible mistake Kmabet made yesterday - he denied(impudently and overbearingly if may i add) everything about his additional forum incarnations and got so much carried away that he totally messed it up what he wrote on which forum :) Now no matter what he will be trying to pull (if he is that much insolent to show up)it is unlikely to be taken seriously (if someone did it till now anyway:) ) I hate to gloat,but in this particular case i think i'm right to. And i also think i may saved some cash to quite a few ppl:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpodoKomodo Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) ADMIN, please close this thread down, like previous posters have said, it is not fair for kmabet to be leading this poor deluded people down a fruitless road like this. If it was not already obvious (through the fact it IS and has been proven to be mathematically impossible) that kmabet is trolling, then surely recent relevations completely prove it. He claims not to have ever heard of the original thread on the uk betting tips forum, yet his first post in this thread is a direct quote from it. Surelt you don't want people like this on your forum, tarnishing your name and leading innocent people into wasting their time? (kmabet asking people who think they have "cracked it" to PM their idea to him, is fishy enough and should not happen on a public forum.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babyduck Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) ADMIN' date= please close this thread down, like previous posters have said, it is not fair for kmabet to be leading this poor deluded people down a fruitless road like this. If it was not already obvious (through the fact it IS and has been proven to be mathematically impossible) that kmabet is trolling, then surely recent relevations completely prove it. He claims not to have ever heard of the original thread on the uk betting tips forum, yet his first post in this thread is a direct quote from it. Surelt you don't want people like this on your forum, tarnishing your name and leading innocent people into wasting their time? (kmabet asking people who think they have "cracked it" to PM their idea to him, is fishy enough and should not happen on a public forum.) Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Ok guys heres my 2 cents worth! It seems to me that most posts (at least recently and apart from the original poster) in this thread are from posters who have little or no constructive comments to make and it almost developed into a slanging match at one stage. My own opinion is simple - if you don't like the thread then DO NOT VIEW THE THREAD OR POST IN IT!!! This betting strategy is as valid a discussion on this forum as any other topic and whilst I agree that there some doubts as to the original posters motives, I still believe that it is worth discussion. You can make a small profit from laying HT 0-0 and backing FT 0-0 if the score at HT is 0-0 by laying FT 0-0 but the odds need to be in the right formulation as was pointed out by clay747 earlier. I believe that the correct odds would be available in certain games but have no way to verify this, although I did get the correct odds at about 55 min in 1 game but this is obviously not ideal as it leaves your bets hopelessly exposed if there is a goal. So to me the 'mythical' bet3 may not be an illusion, but I am not prepared to put the time and effort into finding it at the moment and am not even certain that my maths skills would be up to finding it anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Agree with davidc. While I do not believe that there is a bet3, it's a fact there are certain arbing and profitable trading opportunities on Betfair at certain times, I've found many myself (but of course no holy grail as in a set method that works everytime) when I had the time to do proper trading. If this thread can discuss from that perspective then it's OK. Now there's a lot of people who have practically zero posts on this forum who appear in the thread only to whine or insult, and what's the point of that? No point. They should rather shut up. It's just a harmless and theoretical debate about exchanges, nobody is being scammed here or stolen from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPFC Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Ok guys heres my 2 cents worth! It seems to me that most posts (at least recently and apart from the original poster) in this thread are from posters who have little or no constructive comments to make and it almost developed into a slanging match at one stage. My own opinion is simple - if you don't like the thread then DO NOT VIEW THE THREAD OR POST IN IT!!! This betting strategy is as valid a discussion on this forum as any other topic and whilst I agree that there some doubts as to the original posters motives, I still believe that it is worth discussion. You can make a small profit from laying HT 0-0 and backing FT 0-0 if the score at HT is 0-0 by laying FT 0-0 but the odds need to be in the right formulation as was pointed out by clay747 earlier. I believe that the correct odds would be available in certain games but have no way to verify this, although I did get the correct odds at about 55 min in 1 game but this is obviously not ideal as it leaves your bets hopelessly exposed if there is a goal. So to me the 'mythical' bet3 may not be an illusion, but I am not prepared to put the time and effort into finding it at the moment and am not even certain that my maths skills would be up to finding it anyway! Yet another mug punter ready to burn money whilst chasing rainbows. There's one born every minute. :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xchangeDollarz Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Haha so KMA will probably not show up again if Doc burned him about the other forums? This is probably all shits and giggles for him. But it created interest. Just a few things I picked up from here... Knobbo "thought" hes "cracked" it... and since that post has not came back. However, 11 posts.. cant really believe much of that. If you have cracked it, you would have played only the same matches as me tonight. And you would be able to prove nothing as both bets were safely won with Bet 1. Bet 2 loses and no need for bet 3. You should have now made 12% more than you have lost. £300 Vs -£264 Good luck with this but I really can't give anymore clues Only tested it on 1 game' date=' greened @ HT though...[/quote'] @Rabbito you could possibly be on to something..... with your method... maybe could develop some sort of system that works fairly well from what you stated. cuz i recall this being stated. LOL. Either way, Im not even mad about this thread. It was a riddle in the first place. I wont be wasting my life searching for the Holy Grail. But im interested to see if KMA will show up again.. or if he will move on to another forum with his "riddle" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) So this is the same guy who tried this elsewhere :unsure Just give him abuse he gets the message :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xchangeDollarz Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Apparently it is. Doctoritcata caught him out :moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Good luck with that! Although I sincerely doubt you are as close as you imagine. If you are within 0.4 away from what I'm doing, forget what I'm doing, forget this thread, gear your stakes better and forget about my 12% and 8%. You could pinch 6% of stakes across all the matches in play tonight. You don't need to crack this bet, you need to review your staking strategy and hold off your insurance bet for just a little bit longer. Heres a great one, Why doesnt this thread just be closed as someone else said different places where he has posted this. 1. he likes attention and quote "hes probably wanking one off now to it" 2. its more than likely not true but this lad wants to know, as it probably keeps him awake at night, 3. he must have no friends. 4. grow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Actually just thinking about this do you for bet 3 back 0-0 ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Actually ignore last one it meant to say lay ft 0-0 as the odds would drop if there wasnt a goal for 15 minutes of the second half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Think i might have it right so bet one is lay ht 0-0 so if there is a goal your in profit bet two is back 0-0 ft bet 3 if you need it, and has been posted to adjust bet two so you would lay 0-0 ft as the odds would of dropped but you dont lay it all so you will still be in profit, even what you lost liabilty on bet one. Then with this potential profit you either back correct scores dutching them, or back 1 goal or more after 25 minutes second half. Am i anywhere near them KMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabbito Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) ... @Rabbito you could possibly be on to something..... with your method... maybe could develop some sort of system that works fairly well from what you stated. ... Mayby, how do you backtest the easy way ? how you you guys do that, excel, programs ? I'm a software developer myself and think I will make a generic program to datamine and analyse the past results, mayby you guys can help me a bit and we'll all benefit :) I got triggered by mka's remark in this post http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/work-one-out-lunatism-where-you-96264/index4.html#post1606525 Quote: Originally Posted by Rushian I meant matches with overwhelming Under/Over 2.5 odds... So if a match is 0-0 at half-time and before the match the over 2.5 goals was say 1/2 what would the Over 0.5 goals odds be at half time? Similarly what would the Over 0.5 goals odds be at the half time of a match where the odds for over 2.5 goals before the match were 6/4? You are walking the right path but watch the commission! Should I order my new Ferrari now or a bit later ??? :rollin:rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xchangeDollarz Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Order me a Ferrari too :dude I'm not sure how you will back-test it. First develop the system to something you're content with & then paper trial it with the stake and bank you want to use. BetfairandSqaure gives you a betfair simulation program that lets you trade like you're on betfair but allowing you to use a bank. So that might be something useful. Im interested in trying out a system with you Rabbito. I will be out for the evening but will start working on fine-tuning these strategies with your ideas in place when i have some time. Take care and best wishes. Until next time - XDollarz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabbito Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Order me a Ferrari too :dude I'm not sure how you will back-test it. First develop the system to something you're content with & then paper trial it with the stake and bank you want to use. BetfairandSqaure gives you a betfair simulation program that lets you trade like you're on betfair but allowing you to use a bank. So that might be something useful. Im interested in trying out a system with you Rabbito. I will be out for the evening but will start working on fine-tuning these strategies with your ideas in place when i have some time. Take care and best wishes. Until next time - XDollarz Thnks ! http://www.betfairandsquare.com/ is a great tool ! I'm gonna start using it, excel in the rubbish bin :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) So what you're saying is that we need to look for a market that will drop during the time it stays 0-0 ... ? Under 2,5 goals will be around 1.15ish, lay that together with the lay for 0-0 FT to compensate the losses as stated earlier. When it stays 0-0 FT with the correct stakes you should have a profit. When a goal is scored, the under 2.5 goals will rise with each goal (1 goal to 1.50 , next goal to 2.2) . Back that for greening up.. I'm using the Portuguese Soccer/Superliga/Fixtures 14 February /Braga v Maritimo game (via http://data.betfair.com) for reference (1-0 at 51ste minute, 1-1 61ste minute and 2-1 later on I believe) Also for a 0-0 FT reference Portuguese Soccer/Superliga/Fixtures 12 February /Pacos Ferreira v Sp Lisbon . Off topic, I know 2 camps have evolved here, I'm still on the fence and I can dream can't I ? :) If you lay ft 0-0 at half time your net position in all markets will be zero(one bet lost, one bet closed), but you will be showing an overall loss, so any bet or bets you make now that will turn this loss into profit will be a value bet, it should be clear that we don't need to make the first two bets to profit from bet3. If any solution to this problem exists it will be market movements around half time. for example, when the score is 0-0 at half time you can back ft 1-0, in most games staying in the green for around 25-30 minutes. That means free insurance for one goal in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabbito Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) If you lay ft 0-0 at half time your net position in all markets will be zero(one bet lost, one bet closed), but you will be showing an overall loss, so any bet or bets you make now that will turn this loss into profit will be a value bet, it should be clear that we don't need to make the first two bets to profit from bet3. If any solution to this problem exists it will be market movements around half time. for example, when the score is 0-0 at half time you can back ft 1-0, in most games staying in the green for around 25-30 minutes. That means free insurance for one goal in the second half. This is what I mean, I think it valid, mayby not the one kmanet uses. Can anybody spot a mistake ?? http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/8863/kmabet.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Think i might have it right so bet one is lay ht 0-0 so if there is a goal your in profit bet two is back 0-0 ft bet 3 if you need it, and has been posted to adjust bet two so you would lay 0-0 ft as the odds would of dropped but you dont lay it all so you will still be in profit, even what you lost liabilty on bet one. Then with this potential profit you either back correct scores dutching them, or back 1 goal or more after 25 minutes second half. Am i anywhere near them KMA Am i Anywhere near then? or heading on the right track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) This is what I mean' date=' I think it valid, mayby not t[/quote'] step2 line 4. the stake size should be 28 for a profit of 20. line 4 column G,H should now be the same. either the back wins and the lay pays out or the back is lost and the lay wins, both should return 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) It may be my maths, but your 104 profit for a 0-0 is more than wiped out by bet 1 (£21) bet 3 (£75) and bet 3a (£4.81) if you deduct a best case 5% comission Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) No, rabbito calculated correct as the back and lay in the FT 0-0 market will be produce just a charge for 29 (104-75). But I see another problem. What about a late goal ??? The calculation is based on a rise of the under 2.5 Goal market from 1,13 to 1,40 but that will not happen in any case when a late goal is scored. Probably we will see a non moving market at 1.01 lay. And then we will get a massive loss of : -21 from lay HT 0-0 -8 from back FT 0-0 +25 from lay FT 0-0 -0,85 charge on consolidated FT 0-0 -4,81 from lay under 2.5 goals what makes together a loss of -9,66. That means you will need nearly 6 winning games to green one losing game. There is another question to discuss: is there any point of time during the second half to green up the hole construction with a profit so we can eliminate the danger of a late goal ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) 361 posts and still people think, there is such thing as a free lunch ... :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) 361 posts and still people think' date=' there is such thing as a free lunch ... :lol[/quote'] Thanks for pointing that out, i had missed the other 250 posts saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Think i might have it right so bet one is lay ht 0-0 so if there is a goal your in profit bet two is back 0-0 ft bet 3 if you need it, and has been posted to adjust bet two so you would lay 0-0 ft as the odds would of dropped but you dont lay it all so you will still be in profit, even what you lost liabilty on bet one. Then with this potential profit you either back correct scores dutching them, or back 1 goal or more after 25 minutes second half. Am i anywhere near them KMA Once again i will ask if anyone thinks this could be it :spank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) No, rabbito calculated correct as the back and lay in the FT 0-0 market will be produce just a charge for 29 (104-75). But I see another problem. What about a late goal ??? The calculation is based on a rise of the under 2.5 Goal market from 1,13 to 1,40 but that will not happen in any case when a late goal is scored. Probably we will see a non moving market at 1.01 lay. And then we will get a massive loss of : -21 from lay HT 0-0 -8 from back FT 0-0 +25 from lay FT 0-0 -0,85 charge on consolidated FT 0-0 -4,81 from lay under 2.5 goals what makes together a loss of -9,66. That means you will need nearly 6 winning games to green one losing game. There is another question to discuss: is there any point of time during the second half to green up the hole construction with a profit so we can eliminate the danger of a late goal ??? why is the lay 25 and not 28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) All i can imagine now is that Clay is indeed KMA and i have sussed out what to do hence no one replying to my theorie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Once again i will ask if anyone thinks this could be it :spank Test it out in excel and let us know how you get on, Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markwhite Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Im going to tryit on the liverpool match will let you know my results and im doing it in word not excel, much easier for me to see what i am doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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