Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

[adam2009]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

I reckon I've cracked it and the idea to play with is something hidden in the quotes that nobody else on any of the threads I've seen has mentioned. Anyone spots it and pm's me, I'll put the system out here in black and white!! Until someone spots it, I won't be posting as this idea could be dangerous for >Betfair punters who play the corrrect score markets!!

you said you have cracked it twice now? either you know it or you dnt and fu*k everyone else on the market if you think you have worked it out(which i doubt you have) then post it on here, either your the guy who did it or it was a load of bollocks and cant be done ill take the latter one as you havnt done much on your glory hunt lately, wen you getting back to that?

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) This is a hoax, isnt't it? Designed by some wannabe comedian who laughs off his a×× while feeding folks some fake info about the "Holy Grail" in what is basically playing the 1+ goals market and having them spending hours and hours searching for? :loon

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) i don't believe it to be a hoax. i've worked out a way to do it (in theory), i'm testing it with a paper trail on betfair right now. I'm kind of pessimistic too (thinking there MUST be something wrong with my logic), but looking at the numbers, there doesn't seem to be a way to lose. :tongue2

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) If this is not a hoax, then this someone must have made a gazillion bucks in profits here. Remember: 8-12% per game. Not a single loss since June. Do the math, even with only one game per day. And with that system still working, he would put up a gazillion bucks on HT 0-0 lay other every game, hoping to get matched. Sorry, don't see a gazillion bucks waiting to be matched on HT 0-0 lay. Not in a single game for the last weeks. Can't be done.

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) haha, did you just make an original claim and then refute it all in the same post? what was the point?

[Lahrio]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) If this was real, the person who invented this system would have a phenomenal amount of money. Surely by now the trades of that person, along with all the others who have claimed they have cracked it, would be easily visible in the market by now. After all its been almost 2 years and based on the posts from his thread, he was betting on 4-5 games a day. Sounds like a hoax to me. :\

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) I've watched with interest your response to my last post! If you just look at the numbers and forget the intrigue and ambiguity, all will become clear

Quote:

Dec 18: somebody posted: Lay 0-0 FT? Back 0-0 HT? If 0-0 at HT you win your back and red out, would that be poss? Red out your FT 0-0 i mean This was Slicer's reply: Mr 3eve-if you do wot you posted just above- youve cracked it

Cryptically what he posted JUST above was "Red out your full time" Slicer often spoke of a uniformly red market. This is the only hint I'm giving as you still need to work out bet 3. But this post should keep a lot of you from straying down the wrong path! Good luck if you crack it and please ensure you keep it quiet or market liquidity will disappear and the system will not function.:notworthy:notworthy

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) If you have two markets where one outgreens the redness of a red one then you are happy. Am I right? That's the last clue I'm giving and it's unlikely I'll post again unless someone asks me a direct question to which I will answer only with a YES or a NO. Pay careful attention to 'cadences' (the pattern of movement). Cast between each wave and you'll cast further out, your feet stay drier and you catch more fish.

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

you said you have cracked it twice now? either you know it or you dnt and fu*k everyone else on the market if you think you have worked it out(which i doubt you have) then post it on here' date=' either your the guy who did it or it was a load of bollocks and cant be done ill take the latter one as you havnt done much on your glory hunt lately, wen you getting back to that?[/quote'] F**k everyone on the markets would obviously involve myself? If everyone was doing this, liquidity wouldn't allow it to work. You need to view the market as a whole and not just look for 1 outcome.. E.g. If A loses, B has to win etc... If you red one market uniformly, and green one market uniformly, as long as your steaking is correct, you must win overall...

[Jenno99]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

F**k everyone on the markets would obviously involve myself? If everyone was doing this, liquidity wouldn't allow it to work. You need to view the market as a whole and not just look for 1 outcome.. E.g. If A loses, B has to win etc... If you red one market uniformly, and green one market uniformly, as long as your steaking is correct, you must win overall...

Just read this thread - interesting stuff. You reckon you've cracked it then? Found the Holy Grail, The Lost City of Gold, Shangri-La? Is it everything slicer said it was, i.e 8-12% profit guarenteed on EVERY match?

[clay747]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) OK, I will bite, so assuming that we back ht 0-0 and lay ft 0-0, then we have three possible outcomes for these two bets. Outcome 1: goal scored in the first half. Outcome 2: first half 0-0, goal scored in the second half. Outcome 3: full time 0-0. Outcome 1: Back best lost. Lay stake won. To make a profit our lay stake must be larger than out back stake. so lets make out back stake 10 units and our lay stake 11 units so we have a profit of 1 unit. The odds don't matter in this situation, we will always profit by the difference in the two stakes. Outcome 2: Back bet won. Lay bet won. Taking the odds from todays game between Bolton-Spurs, we have:- Back HT 0-0 @ 3.1 Lay FT 0-0 @ 13.5 so the back bets pays a profit of (3.1-1)*10 = 21 units plus we get 11 units from the lay bet. giving us as total of 21+11=32 units profit. Outcome 3: Back bet won. Lay bet lost. we have our 21 units profit from our back bet, but now we must pay out on the lay bet, giving, 21 - (13.5-1)*11 = 21 - 137.5 = -116.5 Do these two bets make a profit or a loss? looking at the Premiership for the last 5 season we have, Total games: 1900 HT 0-0: 637 FT 0-0: 164 so 1263(1900-637) matches had at least one goal scored in the first half. 1263/1900 = 0.665 or %66.5 are outcome 1. (637-164)/1900 = 0.249 or %24.9 are outcome 2. 164/1900 = 0.086 or %8.63 are outcome 3. so using our P/L from the different outcomes gives, Expected Value = 0.665(1) + 0.249(32) + 0.086(-116.5) = -1.42 so in the long run you would lose about 1.42 units per bet. what if we made out lay stake larger? lets try a back of 10 and a lay of 12. Expected Value = 0.665(2) + 0.249(33) + 0.086(-118) = -1.59. so we stand to lose more as the gap between back and lay increases. So far we have shown that the two bets we started with will lose us money in the long run. That bring us to Bet 3. Is there a bet that we can make at half time or after that will reduce the loss in outcome 3 to turn our Expected Value from negative to positive? What would this bet be? What we do know is:- 1) that our half time back bet has paid out. 2) that only outcome 2 or outcome 3 can happen. 3) we need to hedge the loss from outcome 3 with our expected profit from outcome 2. 4) this bet must payout when no goals are scored in the second half. so using all but one unit of out profit from outcome2 we will need odds of at least 116.5/31= 3.75. We need to find a bet or a combination of bets at half time or later that will give us odds of 3.75 or better on no goals being scored in the second half. If no such bet exist then there is no way to profit from all outcomes of the match.

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

OK, I will bite, so assuming that we back ht 0-0 and lay ft 0-0, then we have three possible outcomes for these two bets. Outcome 1: goal scored in the first half. Outcome 2: first half 0-0, goal scored in the second half. Outcome 3: full time 0-0. Outcome 1: Back best lost. Lay stake won. To make a profit our lay stake must be larger than out back stake. so lets make out back stake 10 units and our lay stake 11 units so we have a profit of 1 unit. The odds don't matter in this situation, we will always profit by the difference in the two stakes. Outcome 2: Back bet won. Lay bet won. Taking the odds from todays game between Bolton-Spurs, we have:- Back HT 0-0 @ 3.1 Lay FT 0-0 @ 13.5 so the back bets pays a profit of (3.1-1)*10 = 21 units plus we get 11 units from the lay bet. giving us as total of 21+11=32 units profit. Outcome 3: Back bet won. Lay bet lost. we have our 21 units profit from our back bet, but now we must pay out on the lay bet, giving, 21 - (13.5-1)*11 = 21 - 137.5 = -116.5 Do these two bets make a profit or a loss? looking at the Premiership for the last 5 season we have, Total games: 1900 HT 0-0: 637 FT 0-0: 164 so 1263(1900-637) matches had at least one goal scored in the first half. 1263/1900 = 0.665 or %66.5 are outcome 1. (637-164)/1900 = 0.249 or %24.9 are outcome 2. 164/1900 = 0.086 or %8.63 are outcome 3. so using our P/L from the different outcomes gives, Expected Value = 0.665(1) + 0.249(32) + 0.086(-116.5) = -1.42 so in the long run you would lose about 1.42 units per bet. what if we made out lay stake larger? lets try a back of 10 and a lay of 12. Expected Value = 0.665(2) + 0.249(33) + 0.086(-118) = -1.59. so we stand to lose more as the gap between back and lay increases. So far we have shown that the two bets we started with will lose us money in the long run. That bring us to Bet 3. Is there a bet that we can make at half time or after that will reduce the loss in outcome 3 to turn our Expected Value from negative to positive? What would this bet be? What we do know is:- 1) that our half time back bet has paid out. 2) that only outcome 2 or outcome 3 can happen. 3) we need to hedge the loss from outcome 3 with our expected profit from outcome 2. 4) this bet must payout when no goals are scored in the second half. so using all but one unit of out profit from outcome2 we will need odds of at least 116.5/31= 3.75. We need to find a bet or a combination of bets at half time or later that will give us odds of 3.75 or better on no goals being scored in the second half. If no such bet exist then there is no way to profit from all outcomes of the match.

Thankyou for biting! However, i feel you have merely mopped up the loose feed and missed the hook!! Again... BET 1 IS LAY 0-0 HALF TIME BET 2 IS BACK 0-0 FULL TIME. If bet 1 wins, you must make 12% profit. Therefore if your bat 1 lay stake is £10, your bet 2 back stake must be £8.80. If bet 1 wins, bet 2 will always lose. You need to look at covering the loss from the red book with a full cover green on the green book. I hope this c... No I can't say it!!

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

Just read this thread - interesting stuff. You reckon you've cracked it then? Found the Holy Grail' date=' The Lost City of Gold, Shangri-La? Is it everything slicer said it was, i.e 8-12% profit guarenteed on EVERY match?[/quote'] yes and no!! only guaranteed on the matches that you bet on!! you wouldn't bet on every match as the required profit target can't be achieved unless you can obtain the correct odds. I played the Bolton Spurs game today as the price was acceptable. I wouldn't play on a league 2 game as the market liquidity just isn't there.

[davidc]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

I've watched with interest your response to my last post! If you just look at the numbers and forget the intrigue and ambiguity, all will become clear

Quote:

Dec 18: somebody posted: Lay 0-0 FT? Back 0-0 HT? If 0-0 at HT you win your back and red out, would that be poss? Red out your FT 0-0 i mean This was Slicer's reply: Mr 3eve-if you do wot you posted just above- youve cracked it

Cryptically what he posted JUST above was "Red out your full time" Slicer often spoke of a uniformly red market. This is the only hint I'm giving as you still need to work out bet 3. But this post should keep a lot of you from straying down the wrong path! Good luck if you crack it and please ensure you keep it quiet or market liquidity will disappear and the system will not function.:notworthy:notworthy

I'm a little confused :( Is bet 1: BACK 0-0 HT OR LAY 0-0 HT

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) hey kmabet, can you give me ur email so i can email you to see if i have it right? i cant pm you because dont have enough messages yet

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

hey kmabet' date=' can you give me ur email so i can email you to see if i have it right? i cant pm you because dont have enough messages yet[/quote'] intrigued to hear your thoughts!!

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

I'm a little confused :( Is bet 1: BACK 0-0 HT OR LAY 0-0 HT

again , bet 1 is LAY O-O HT bet 2 is BACK 0-0 FT BET 3 IS...

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

[email protected]. intrigued to hear your thoughts!!

hey, just emailed u

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

hey' date=' just emailed u[/quote'] Keep trying OCIW! You have fallen foul like so many on all the forums I have posted. A football match is a 20 market event..

[davidc]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

I've watched with interest your response to my last post! If you just look at the numbers and forget the intrigue and ambiguity, all will become clear

Quote:

Dec 18: somebody posted: Lay 0-0 FT? Back 0-0 HT? If 0-0 at HT you win your back and red out, would that be poss? Red out your FT 0-0 i mean This was Slicer's reply: Mr 3eve-if you do wot you posted just above- youve cracked it

Cryptically what he posted JUST above was "Red out your full time" Slicer often spoke of a uniformly red market. This is the only hint I'm giving as you still need to work out bet 3. But this post should keep a lot of you from straying down the wrong path! Good luck if you crack it and please ensure you keep it quiet or market liquidity will disappear and the system will not function.:notworthy:notworthy

....so if it is; again , bet 1 is LAY O-O HT bet 2 is BACK 0-0 FT then the information quoted in the above (in red) is wrong.:unsure

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) yes, i noticed this too :wall

[Jenno99]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

again , bet 1 is LAY O-O HT bet 2 is BACK 0-0 FT BET 3 IS...

Ooooooh, you're such a tease. I'm not sure revealing all in an obscure thread in an obscure corner of a small betting forum is going to destroy liquidity in the correct score markets on Betfair. You're clearly dying to tell us the secret so I say let it out...you'll feel better!

[Lardonio]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) What does 'red out' and 'green out' mean?

[clay747]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Re: Slicer's bet

---

Quote:

Originally Posted by kmabet So it's definitely bullshit then? What the hell was in it for him?

Who knows, people have weird perceptions of what fame is I guess. __________________

[dogegg]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) Is this one of those attention-seeking threads that you see littered all over Betfair?

[Rushian]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) I've just read this and have no real experience with live-betting but what kind of odds would you get at half-time for an Over 0.5 goals match? Or laying 0-0 FT at half-time?

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

....so if it is; again , bet 1 is LAY O-O HT bet 2 is BACK 0-0 FT then the information quoted in the above (in red) is wrong.:unsure

This is why you're not solving the riddle! If you read what I actually said, I said JUST above. Slicer said "what you posted JUST above". Posted just above was the line..... "Red out the FT bet" He also stated bets 1 and 2 many many times over

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

I've just read this and have no real experience with live-betting but what kind of odds would you get at half-time for an Over 0.5 goals match? Or laying 0-0 FT at half-time?

You can't lay off for a profit until around the 60th minute. Therefore, you're vulnerable for a 15 minute period. Is that the question you were asking? 0.5 goals market is nigh on impossible to green at any point during the game and would require massive stakes and there is a degree of risk involved. With this bet, you can't lose so risk doesn't play out.

[kmabet]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

What does 'red out' and 'green out' mean?

Have you ever played on betfair?

[Rushian]

Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?)

You can't lay off for a profit until around the 60th minute. Therefore, you're vulnerable for a 15 minute period. Is that the question you were asking? 0.5 goals market is nigh on impossible to green at any point during the game and would require massive stakes and there is a degree of risk involved. With this bet, you can't lose so risk doesn't play out.

Thanks for the reply but, actually I was asking about the odds themselves. What kind of odds are they, and how do they differ between matches where a high number of goals were expected at the start of the match (e.g. a Real Madrid or Barcelona home match) or some other match where the Unders would have been the overwhelming favourite.