Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:35 Aintree I backed Super Kenny on his debut at small odds when he won fairly confortably at Stratford on his debut in the UK. This was quite long awaited as originally he was aimed at the Triumph hurdle at Cheltenham but obviously he needed a race before then which was delayed until a day before the festival so he was unable to run. Obviously Aintree was the aim since and although this is a big step up in grade, he has been talked up so I am willing to back him at this price with Sanctuaire a bit too short for my liking and Barizan coming out of a tough race at Cheltenham. 2pt win Super Kenny @ 6.4 (Betfair)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:20 Aintree If Consigliere has come out well from his Cheltenham encounter 20 days ago I feel he will take all the beating here. The horse is a model of consistency over jumps having won 5 and placed in 5 from 14 runs. His first run in graded company came at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 race where he finished a very creditable 3rd in behind Pigeon Island and French Opera who had both previously won over that course and distance. Pigeon Island does re-oppose today but I feel with the pull in the weights that Consigliere can reverse the placings. Best form comes on any ground softer than good and the trip is probably ideal for him. 2pt win Consigliere @ 9.4 (Betfair) *Trading at 8.4 now but placed the bet last night, will be happy to post up any screenshots required though.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:15 Aintree - The Grand National Three selections for me: State Of Play - The Evan Williams trained horse finished 4th in last years National and although well beaten, at leats he completed the course. Form over the Grand National fences is a huge positive. Is also a previous course winner as well which shows further that he handles the track despite that race not being over the national fences. He gets in off a mark 5lbs lower than last years race here today which could be key to his chances. Character Building - This will be the horses first run at Aintree so this is a bit of an unknown for him track and fence-wise. Is a solid jumper though and is yet to fall so fingers crossed he can put in a solid round today. Not sure how he will cope with the trip as well having won as far as 26 furlongs although he has placed over 33 furlongs at Cheltenham which shows he can cope with a test of stamina. Does tend to run in the rear as well so it will be an even bigger test of stamina from the back but I guess for all these unknown factors there is only one way to find out if he will cope with them. Dream Alliance - This horse won the Welsh Grand National back in December 2009, a race in which Mon Mome placed in back in 2007 and as we all know he won the Grand National last year. The Wesl National is the furthest trip Dream Alliance has run over but that was a true stamina test in heavy going so I'm taking it that he will relish this test of stamina today having never previously run in this race. 1pt win State Of Play @ 16/1 1pt win Character Building @ 20/1 1pt win Dream Alliance @ 40/1 All bets with Ladbrokes (BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:25 Aintree I feel Ma Yahab ran a very creditable race at Chelteham when finishing 4th in a class 3 handicap LTO. This was in Heavy going and he has been dropped 1lb for that effort. Whether that has taken a lot out of him will remain to be seen. Steps up into a Listed event for only the 2nd time in his career today but he ran a very good race in 3rd in his only run at Listed level to date (January 2008 - Skybet Chase) off a mark of 126. Is only 2lbs higher for today's race and I feel he has progressed well since then winning once and placing 4 times. 0.5pts E/W Ma Yahab @ 16/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Update: Iris De Balme (-1.00) Ballydub (-0.50) Piper Royal (-2.00) Akarshan (-1.00) Son Of Flicka (-0.75) Soft Spoken Guy (-0.75) Yankee Holiday (-1.00) Duke Of Malfi + 3.50 Harouet (-2.00) C'Monthehammers + 2.00 Gwyre (-1.00) Royal Kicks (-1.00) The Snail (-2.00) Super Kenny (-2.00) Consigliere (-2.00) Ma Yahab (-1.00) State Of Play (-1.00) Character Bulding (-1.00) Dream Alliance (-1.00) Total: -15:50 Awful run here as well but at least the thread is still in profit (just). Bets -116 Wins - 13 Places - 3 Losses - 100 P/(L) - 3.37 Might not be much bets left in this thread, the Scottish National meeting may see a few selections but apart from that I doubt I will venture into the NH much.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Four horses from 3 races for me today: 14:45 Cheltenham Boychuk boasts course and distance form and has also won at the course over shorter as well and we all know how vital course form is at this track. He won this race last year off a mark 5lbs lower but the fashion he won in thatday suggests to me that he can win off this mark today. From 11 runs at the track he has won twice and placed 5 times and if you further that form into course and distance it reads 319. He was 9th in the Kim Muir but has been dropped 2lbs for that and Richard Johnson is back in the saddle, he has been on board for 6 of the horses 7 wins. 1pt win Boychuk @ 9/2 (VC Bet - BOG) 15:20 Cheltenham Babysitter does have a touch of class about him and was only beaten a short head in a Grade 3 race at Sandown when last seen but I am going to side with a horse that has some winning form at the track. Babysitter is unraced here so he may well act on the track so I will have a small saver on him. Lord Ragnar has won 1 from 1 at the track and he went on to win in good fashion at Newbury when last seen 19 days ago. That was in a novice event and today he enters his first race in handicap company here off a mark of 129 which I feel he can definately win off. May have preferred the ground to be on the softer side since both his wins have been in Soft and Good To Soft going but I am willing to take a chance on that. I do feel Our Bomber Harris will run a good race in his first run in handicap company, did run at the festival but is dropped in trip by 2 furlongs today, my only worry is that he is not the most reliable of jumpers but if anybody can steer him home it would be Tony McCoy. 0.5pt win Babysitter @ 5/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 1pt win Lord Ragnar @ 7/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 15:55 Cheltenham You can't fault the course form of Voy Por Ustedes and I think he is terrfic value today. His run at the festival last month was the first time he has been unplaced at the track and with a drop in grade and 5lb drop in the weights I feel he can get back on track in this race today. This is a tough little race, especially with others having course wins on their CV but this is the lowest mark VPU has run off since his win off a mark of 162 in December 2006 at Kempton. 0.5pts E/W Voy Por Ustedes @ 15/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Poor day at Cheltenham on Wednesday, will be looking to hopefully overturn the loss over the weekend at either Ayr or the night meeting at Cheltenham. I do tend to have a bet here and there on the summer jumps so I will keep this thread open throughout the summer anyway and hope to get the thread back into profit.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 19:20 Cheltenham Gentle Ranger should have a say in this having fallen at the festival LTO when going well. Is back down to a mark of 130 which he finished 2nd off of in his only other race at Cheltenham. Also ran a great race in this grade at Newbury back in December when 2nd off a mark just 1lb lower (129) than he runs off today. Still fairly lightly raced with only 14 races to date and with the more experienced Tom Scudamore back on board I feel he has a good chance here at a nice price. 1pt win Gentle Ranger @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Won @ 15/2 :nana 15:20 Ayr Gone To Lunch is my selection here, he ran on in impressive style in this race last year to finish in 2nd place and was close to catching the eventual winner Hello Bud. The fact he is now 8 pounds lower in the handicap from that run must ensure that hes in with place claims at the very least. Obviously he was in a lot better form leading up the race with 3 wins from his previous 4 runs and 3 places before those runs. His form this year has not been so good but it has been off higher marks than those wins/places last season so the fact he is dropped down a further 5lbs today is only a positive in my opinion. Has had a similar time off track compared to last year and it seems obvious that this was his aim and I expect him to run a solid race once again in this contest. Like fintron I like Present M'Lord over monster trips and he won over 4 miles at Exeter in the mud back in December off a mark of 114, does run off a mark 11lbs higher here but has a 5lb claimer on board to ease the weight. Ran a good 2nd LTO to Teaming Rain off a mark of 121, that was again over a monster trip of 3m7f. His form over 30 furlongs (3m6f+) reads 342142 which shows how consistent he is over long distances. 1pt E/W Gone To Lunch @ 12/1 (Bet >365 - BOG) 0.25pt E/W Present M'Lord @ 66/1 (Bet >365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:20 Ascot Got to side with last years winner Briery Fox who won this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher. Has also won off a mark 4lbs higher so he is well handicapped today. This race was the last one he managed to win but had placed in graded company next time out but has been unplaced on all four occasions since then. Finished 2nd in a similar race 2 years ago over course and distance off a mark of 130. 1pt win Briery Fox @ 7/2 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 2 winners and a place from my last 4 selections to get the thread back into profit :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Update: Boychuk (-1.00) Babysitter (-0.50) Lord Ragnar (-1.00) Voy Por Ustedes (-1.00) Gentle Ranger (Won @ 15/2) + 7.50 Gone To Lunch (2nd @ 15/2) + 2.00 Present M'Lord (-0.50) Briery Fox (1st @ 11/4) + 3.50 Total: + 9.00 Bets -124 Wins - 15 Places - 4 Losses - 105 P/(L) - 12.37 Nice looking profit again now :nana Might have a play on some of the Punchestown races this week, I quite like 2 races tomorrow that I have highlighted as potential races to bet in but whether or not I will I am still undecided.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:20 Punchestown I also like Loosen My Load in this race who I was impressed with when he won at Cheltenham on his penultimate start. Did only win by half a length but I felt he held on well and had a nice turn of foot to run clear after the 2nd last. Was 4th at Fairyhouse when last on the track at the start of the month, that was after 4-5 months off the track so he should be fitter for today's race. Seems versatile groundwise having won on Good To Firm, Good To Soft and Good/Yearling. Trip is perfect and I think he will run to a place at the very least here today at a nice price. I feel General Miller will find it hard to follow up after a tough race at Aintree and I fancy Loosen My Load to reverse the placings with Blackstairmountain due to the fact he should come on for that run and had an easier race that day. 1pt E/W Loosen My Load @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:40 Punchestown Hopefully great minds think alike RB as I too find Don't Stop Me Now quite interesting here. Is still unexposed in this sphere with only 4 runs over hurdles which has lead to form of 4121. Will definately like the going having won in Good To Firm and Good To Soft and has also placed on Good ground. Has won over the trip once and over 2 miles twice (once in a flat race and once over hurdles). Has had a lengthy absence which is my only concern really but I believe he can run a solid enough race and maybe sneak into the places. Simple Jim also interested me at a nice price but I am just going to leave him out. 0.5pts E/W Don't Stop Me Now @ 20/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:30 Perth Two I feel are overpriced here. Firstly Brave Rebellion can follow up his win at Market Rasen LTO with another one here today off a 5lb higher mark. Won off a mark of 127 last year at Musselburgh so he is still 2lbs below that mark today and I feel he can run a solid race, blinkered for the first time today as well which is interesting. This will be a tougher race than his win at Market Rasen but hopefully that win will give him the confidence to go in again. Storymaker is another I like and I notice the money is coming on for him now but there is still 12/1 at VC which I am on. Did finish 2nd twice off similar marks in February and March and was about to make a challenge LTO when blundering, should go close if putting in a clear round. 0.5pts win Brave Rebellion @ 16/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 0.5pts win Storymaker @ 12/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:55 Perth A return to hurdles was very much appreciated for Quartz De thaix last time out when he won by 5 lengths at Cheltenham in similar conditions (class, ground and trip) after a frustrating time chasing (4 places and 0 wins from 6 races). Is raised 7lbs for that effort but the race at Cheltenham was definately tougher than this assignment and with a 50% strike rate over hurdles (3/6) he should have a chance to win off this mark. Jockey and trainer combo won the race last year and will be looking to do so for the 2nd year running. 1pt win Quartz De thaix @ 5/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 20/1 finished 2nd and Quartz De thaix wins @ 7/2 :nana Storymaker was also 2nd yesterday, shame he didn't get up to win.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Update: Loosen My Load (-2.00) Don' Stop Me Now (3rd @ 20/1) +2.00 Brave Rebellion (-0.50) Storymaker (-0.50) Quartz De Thaix (1st @ 7/2) + 5.00 Tota: + 4.00 Bets -129 Wins - 16 Places - 5 Losses - 108 P/(L) - 16.37 Still looking good profit-wise, just going to keep this thread open as I may have the odd bet here and there in the NH meetings but will mainly be concentrating on the flat.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:35 Haydock Overturn is still fairly lightly raced but has been progressing really well. Has only had the 7 runs over hurdles where he has notched up 3 wins and placed on 2 other occasions. Completed a hat-trick when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr by 4 and a half lengths in what was his first run in graded company. Raised 8bs for that effort but definately still well handicapped, especially at the rate he is improving and the season Jason Maguire and Donald McCain Jnr have been having. 1pt E/W Overturn @ 10/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 2nd, but got a good price for it so happy enough with the place money :)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:35 Perth Going to take my chance with Santa's Son here who has done most of his winning over similar trips to today's. Is now rated only 123 over hurdles having been rated as high as 132 earlier in the year and also rated as high as 152 over the jumps. Has won on GF over in Ireland so the ground won't be a problem and if he gets an easy lead today he may just prove too hard to peg back, definately has some each way value at the prices anyway. 0.5pts E/W Santa's Son @ 12/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Another 2nd but the place money leads to a slight profit, will get this updated soon if I don;t have many more selections. Me and Stewart are planning to head to Perth a week on Sunday so may have a few bets in this thread for that if I study the night before.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:20 Perth Big race for the day and it seems like a wide open contest. My selection for this race lies with Jack The Blaster who is still lightly raced over fences having only had 7 runs over jumps. From those 7 runs he has won twice and placed 3 times. Has won over 20 furlongs in similar ground conditions when he won by 6 lengths at Newcastle back in 2007. Has not won since 2008 but has only had the 5 runs since then where the form reads 62P22. Was a narrow 2nd at Newcastle LTO after 9 months off the track which shows he can go well fresh. Also has a record of 23 at this track, his latest effort was a 2nd over 3 furlongs shorter but he did stay on well that day so I feel he should have a chance at this distance. He has only attempted this distance once where he did finish a close 2nd in Soft going at Hexham. His only other run at a similar distance resulted in a 3rd place over 25 furlongs. Also has a good record going right-handed, 3 of his 4 wins have been on a right-handed track with several places on right-handed tracks to back this up. 0.5pts E/W Jack The Blaster @ 12/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 20:20 Southwell Tiger O'Toole should take all the beating here in my opinion. Has won twice over hurdles in handicap company, once over today's minimum trip of 2m on quick ground which it looks set to be today and once over 2m1f again on GF ground. Both those wins were fairly confortable and he ran a good race in 3rd at Cheltenham LTO over 2m1f when upped in grade for the first time. Drops back down into a class 3 race today, gets in off the same mark and he is sure to relish the GF ground. 1pt win Tiger O'Toole @ 10/3 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Update: Overturn (2nd @ 9/2) + 1.50 Santa's Son (2nd @ 7/1) + 1.00 Jack The Blaster (-1.00) Totals: + 1.50 Bets -132 Wins - 16 Places - 7 Losses - 109 P/(L) - 17.87 Hopefully Tiger O'Toole will add to the profit a bit :hope

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Tiger O'Toole did win and has just followed up again today, didn't realise he was running again but never mind.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 20:20 Bangor Morenito got off to a good start in his first run for Tom George where he chased home Lord Gunnerslake at Southwell just 13 days ago. That was his first run since August so I feel he will come on for that run after such a lengthy lay-off. Is raised 2lbs for that effort but should definately have every chance in this race over a distance he has previously won over. Stable is in cracking form and this is his ony runner at the meeting which gives out positive vibes. Does look a very weak race now that Tim Vaughan's horse is now a non-runner and I think Morentino will take all the beating. 3pt win Morentino @ 9/4 (Boylesports - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Very tiny update: Tiger O'Toole +3.33 Morentino (-3.00) Bets -134 Wins - 17 Places - 7 Losses - 110 P/(L) - 18.20 Really looks like this will be taken to a close soon and I am very happy with the profit I have managed to produce especially with a majority of my bets being 1pt wins or 0.5pts each way. This was also my first season tackling the NH on here and hopefully next season I can better that total.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:50 Perth Nigel-Twiston Davies sends one horse to Perth today in Petite Margot which is making this one a stand out bet for me. I visited Perth around 5 weeks ago and he sent the old boy Ollie Magern there for one in the big Gold Cup race which he won fairly confortably and I presume he has similar ideas with Petite Margot today. This is also Brennan's first ride on the card but he does have 1 later on. Anyway onto the horse itself. 11 career wins in total with 5 of those coming over the jumps. His last win came in March at Ffos Las over this distance off a mark of 112. Well beaten over further in his 3 starts since (includes a 2nd place at this track over 3m7f) but I think the drop back down to 3 miles will definately suit. He has won at this course previously over a similar distance where he romped a field of 10 in a Novice hurdle race back in 2004. He likes to race up the front and the last time I visited Perth it seemed as if the front and prominent runners dominated the majority of the races so he should be in a handy position throughout the race and if fully wound up he should have a great chance of landing this. Would have probably preferred the ground a bit on the softer side but has won on GF ground in the past. 1pt win Petite Margot @ 10/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 16:20 Perth I watched King Roonah in the flesh on his penultimate start when he would have won over this course and distance had he not fallen at the final fence. He was also 3rd at this course in his first start for this yard 11 days prior to that race. Had a spin over hurdles 2 days after his fall at Perth and did shape well that day when finishing 3rd. Has had a small break since then and should be back ready for his first career win at a course his trainer does really well at. Clear round of jumping and he should win this race. As already mentioned, without a doubt he would have won when last here if he hadn't fallen at the last fence. Paul Carberry takes the ride for the first time and he is a top jockey so I have no doubts about him not being able to win on board. 2pt win King Roonah @ 11/4 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 King Roonah wins @ 7/2 which is a fantastic price to give a nice little profit to the day. Gordon Elliot is definately one to keep on the right side of at Perth. Away to have a look at today's card to see if there's anything worth betting on.