Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010

[StuSimmy]

Thought it was about time for this since I have been backing almost everyday again recently so thought I would keep a track of how I am doing and make a seperate thread:ok My other thread didn't go too well after rushing some selections and not being very disciplined with the amount of bets I had in a day etc. I decided to draw a line through that and feel having a seperate thread for the NH, AW and Flat racing will be a better idea. I will open up a AW thread as well and then the Flat when the season starts again. Only one meeting tomorrow which I am away to look at, not sure if I will have any bets but if so they will be up before the races (obviously). The plan is to have a 0.5 - 3pt staking plan with the majority of my bets probably within the 0.5 - 2pt mark. I may raise this up to 5pts in the future but it depends how it goes. Will probably have the odd each way bet as well. Any comments as always are appreciated. May even try and do some tissues, although may just keep them for the Professional Bets thread.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 12:50 Musselburgh Nelliedonethat was successful over course and distance at the start of the year and has won twice since then in handicap company off marks of 83 and 89. Two sound efforts since returning to the track, does usually need a race or two before he is fully wound up so he can definately get back to winning ways today on his 3rd run of the season. Runs off 93 today but Gillies takes off a vital 3lbs. His course and distance win came on Good To Soft which is today's declared ground. 1 pt win @ 3/1 (Bet 365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 A nice start to this thread, got a better price as well since the horse won @ 5/2 :clap Nelliedonethat - Very easy winner, won by 11 lengths and was full of running at the end. Jumped well throughout the race as well. Will definately be keeping an eye on the horse next time out, depending on how harsh the handicapper is I believe the horse can win again. Nelliedonethat returns 4.00 (+3.00). Bets - 1 Won - 1 Losses - 0 P/L - + 3.00

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:50 Sedgefield Deuteronomy has been doing everything but winning lately with 5 places in his last 7 starts. He has placed in 4 of his 5 runs this year and narrowly went down LTO at Wetherby over a furlong further in similar ground conditions as today. Is upped 1lb for that and is now 13lbs higher than his win in April 2008. The horse just seems to lack in a finish but this looks an easier task and perfect opporunity for him to rack up a second career success. Categorical has also been running consistently without getting his head in front and has yet to win in handicap company.The fact he is 11lbs higher than Deuteronomoy puts me off him as well. 1 pt win Deuteronomy @ 2/1 (Bet365 - BOG) 13:40 Fontwell Beautiful Vision has not run over hurdles since April 2006 but has a good record in this sphere with 3 wins and a place from 8 runs. Those 3 wins have all been over the minimum trip but have all came in Soft or Heavy going so he will cope with today's ground conditions. Has won over the distance before in a Chase so the trip shouldn't be a worry either. Has yet to win in handicap company over hurdles bur has won off a mark of 115 in a Class 4 Chase Handicap. Reste Beau could be the main danger, this is his first run in the UK after being imported from France and will be worth watching. 0.5pt win Beautiful Vision @ 11/2 (Stan James) 15:10 Fontwell Wide open race this one and very tough to pick out a selection so I will be keeping stakes small in this race. Wheres Johnny runs off top weight today but he put in a sound effort off this mark LTO at Plumpton when he was beaten by Its a Classic who has been raised 4lbs for that win. Was 3rd since in a Class 3 race but was well beaten over a shorter trip. Quartz Du Montceau was 2nd in that race but was flat to the boards come the end and probably would have finished 3rd if Wheres Johnny hadn't made a mistake 2 out when disputing 2nd place. On that form I am going to take a chance on Wheres Johnny to reverse the placings, if he puts in a clean round of jumping I can see him beating those 2 who I rate amongst the strongest in the race. He has won off a mark of 116 over hurdles before and his best pieces of form over jumps so far has been in Soft going. Montana Gold will be interesting on his debut for Tim Vaughan and Kiltimoney should also have claims if he gets over his fall LTO. 0.5pts win Wheres Johnny @ 7/1 (WillHill - BOG) 15:40 Fontwell The one I like here is Rosoff. Has 4 wins and 2 places from 19 runs over hurdles. He is 7lbs higher than his last win which came at Plumpton over the minimum trip in Heavy going last December. He has also won on Soft/Heavy going and Yearling so will cope with todays ground conditions. Only negative is that the horse doesn't seem to go well fresh but usually has his first run in the summer and his form last Winter was good with one win and 2 places from 3 runs in December/January so hopefully he can run a good race today. 0.5pts E/W @ 14/1 (VC - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Tuesday 8th December Round Up: Deuteronomy (3rd) returns 0.00 (-1.00) Beautiful Vision - Non Runner Wheres Johnny (3rd) returns 0.00 (-0.50) Rosoff (Unplaced) returns 0.00 (-1.00) (-2.50) for the day. Bets - 4 Wins - 1 Places - 0 Losses - 3 P/L - + 0.50 Added a place part in but will only refer to each way bets so my two for today who I just had wins on do not count in that. Thought Deuteronomy was a bit of a disappointment, was jumping well and kept a good position up front for a good bit of the race but made no impression when ridden, beaten about 17 lengths. Beautiful Vision was a non-runner. Wheres Johnny ran a cracking race I felt although was a bit one paced near the end of the race, would probably have backed the horse each way @ 12/1 mind you. Rosoff was sitting around 3rd-5th for most of the race but weakened very quickly and ended up finishing last. Quite a disappointing day in this thread :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 12:50 Hexham Catch Bob looks a good bet here in a very tight handicap hurdle race. My selection won nicely over the distance LTO in a Class 3 handicap at Leicester. Travelled well throughout when being held up and stayed on well to win by 2 lengths. Runs off 7lbs higher today but should go on the ground conditions having won on Soft going and Yearling. Also had a good 2nd to Trafalgar Road at Haydock back at the start of last month in Heavy going. Was only beaten 2 and a quarter lengths and the winner has since ran a good 3rd in a Class 1 handicap hurdle race since off a mark of 126 (5lbs higher than the win at Haydock). Jockey and Trainer are in good form and also have good records at this track. Open De L'isle and John Forbes should be potential dangers having both won in the mud, they both won LTO so have penalties to carry as well. 1 pt win Catch Bob @ 9/2 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:10 Leicester Grand Slam Hero can go one better than his run over course and distance LTO where he finished 2nd, only one length off Free World. Runs off the same mark of 114 today. Has won over the distance off a mark of 113 over hurdles. Brennan takes the ride again today which could be a key sign to his chances since he overlooks Young Albert for him having been on Young Albert on his last two outings. Is lightly raced over the past couple of years with only 7 runs since the start of 2008 but should play a big part in this race today on Good ground which he has won on twice before. 1pt win @ 7/2 (VC - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 12:40 Cheltenham I tipped up Trafalgar Road on here for his last run when he ended up 3/12 at Newbury. Put in a good run that day and ran on well to snatch 3rd place on the line. The softer going today may suit him better since he won on Heavy going at Haydock on his first run of the season over the distance. The ground at Cheltenham LTO was only Good To Soft although he has won on Good To Soft in the past as well. He is still lightly raced with only 7 runs so is definately still open to improvement and a win from todays mark of 127 is certainly achievable. 1pt win

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Taking 6/1 for Trafalgar Road @ Bet 365 :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 13:50 Cheltenham I find Pomme Tiepy quite interesting in this race, the fact it is Willie Mullins only horse sent over here suggests to me that this one should run a big race at a nice price. The horse has yet to win in handicap company but finished 5th in the Irish National off a mark of 133. The horse has also won multiple Graded races in Ireland as a Novice. Has beaten Kilcrea Castle who has won off a mark of 132 and placed off a mark of 141 since. My selection beat him soundly twice as a Novice in 2008. Pomme Tiepy also beat Cork All Star in the horses last win in November last year. Cork all Star has placed off marks of 141 and 142 in handicap company and has finished 2nd as a novice behind the likes of Forpaddydeplasterer and Muirhead. In those two races he finished ahead of Jered and Tranquil Sea who both have a very nice profile now. I just feel Mullins would not send the one horse over if it didn't have a strong chance and I feel this could be a big run for the horse today. 1pt win Pomme Tiepy @ 14/1 (Boylesports - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Wednesday 9th December: Catch Bob (-1.00) Grand Slam Hero (-1.00) Friday 11th December: Trafalgar Road (-1.00) Pomme Tiepy (-1.00) -4.00 Bets - 8 Wins - 1 Places - 0 Losses - 7 P/L - (-2.50) First selection a winner and rubbish since, typical :lol

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 13:15 Cheltenham This is a very good race in my opinion and I won't be surprised no matter what the outcome is as it is a very tight race. Managed to get my list down to three and have now decided on one of those three. Saphir Des Bois should be competitive off today's mark of 132 having placed off a mark of 127 LTO when beaten by Sa Suffit who has been raised 8lbs so I fancy my selection to reverse the placings off these weights. Does have a good 5lb claimer on board today in McLernon so is effectively running off a mark of 127. Has won on Soft, Very Soft and Good To Soft so the cut in the ground will definately suit the horse. Has also won over further so that suggests the stamina of the horse is good which can be useful for coming up that Cheltenham hill. 1pt win Saphir Des Bois 14:25 Cheltenham Tamarinbleu was last seen in the Charlie Hall chase on Halloween when he was beaten by Deep Purple by a head. Since then Deep Purple has followed up with a win which came in midweek in another big race - The Peterborough Chase, this came off a mark 159 (8lbs higher than the Charlie Hall Chase). Tamarinbleu won over course and distance at the 2007 when he won the Racing Post Plate. His course and distance win came off a mark just 3lbs lower than his mark today but he has also won off a mark 6lbs higher. This was his last win when he beat Twist Magic who has a very nice profile now with his most recent winning coming last weekend in the Tingle Creek chase off a mark of 167. Did disappoint last season after racking up a hat trick the season before but the fact he has made an excellent start to the season with that 2nd at Wetherby is positive and hopefully he will be back in the winners enclosure after this race. 1pt win Tamarinbleu @ 10/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Taken 7/1 @ Bet 365 (BOG) for Saphir Des Bois.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 13:40 Hereford Syncopated Rhythm makes his reappearance here and is expected to make a bold bid. The horse goes well fresh since 2 of his 3 wins have been on his first run of the season. Won over course and distance last November off a mark of 83 (had a 3lb claimer on board). Runs off 88 today with a good 5lb claimer on board so should give a good account. Has also won on Soft going before. 1 pt win @ 15/2 (VC - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Saturday 12th December: Saphir Des Bois (-1.00) Tamarinbleu (-1.00) Sunday 13th December: Syncopated Rhythm (-1.00) Two days total: -3.00 Syncopated ran no race at all and was pulled up very early which was annoyhing, not going well at all, hopefully see a change of fortune this week. Plumpton tomorrow to start off the week. Bets -11 Wins - 1 Places - 0 Losses - 10 P/L - (-5.50)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 13:35 Plumpton Franchoek made a good chase debut LTO when finishing 2nd at Huntingdon. He was beaten by the impressive Bergo who is 2/2 over fences and has now won 4 races in a row. Franchoek was well clear of the 3rd place that day and did put in a nice round of jumping. Should come on for that run and the shorter trip will suit him. The horse is rated 150 over hurdles and has won over the distance 3 times in Graded company. Handles soft ground as well. El Dancer makes his chase debut, is rated 145 over hurdles so has a bit to find with Franchoek in that terms but may take better over fences but at that price I am willing to oppose. 1 pt win Franchoek @ 9/2 (VC - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Not got time to have a proper look at the jump meetings today so will be no bets today at Catterick or Folkstone. Will update figures tonight and probably have 1/2 selections on Wednesday. Hopefully I can get on to winning ways then :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 No bets again today, did have a couple noted down but they were too short for me to have a bet on and represented no value for me.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:40 Ludlow Quite an interesting affair this and it should be a close race. The money has come for Brenin Cwmtudu this morning, was 3rd on his Chase debut LTO although he was well beaten and didn't jump too fluently, made 1 mistake and was struggling quite a way out. Should come on for the run and if he jumps fluently enough then he should go close. Milton Des Bieffes has been in great form lately but is off a career high mark and is 11lbs higher than his highest winning mark although did place off this mark over 2 furlongs further at this course on Soft going LTO so he can't be discounted. Has won over course and distance as well off a mark of 96. Jockey also knows the horse well. Nelliedonethat won easily LTO over the distance but this a stronger race, gets to run off the same mark thiough and probably is the one to beat in the race but his price is too short in the market for me. Ice Bucket could also have a say in the race. Has a string of 2nd places to his name as of late (5 out his last 6 races), is a distance winner and should be thereabouts again. 1pt win Milton Des Bieffes @ 6/1 (VC - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Another 2nd, nothing is going for me at the minute, ran a terrific race but just ran out of steam near the end :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Monday 14th December: Franchoek (-1.00) Thursday 17th December: Milton Des Bieffes (2nd) (-1.00) Thought Franchoek was very poor and was beaten with a circuit to run when the pace was upped a bit. He just couldn't go with it and would prefer a slower run race. Milton Des Bieffes ran a cracking race in 2nd, led most of the way but just didn't have enough to keep it up over the final couple of fences. Bets -13 Wins - 1 Places - 0 Losses - 12 P/L - (-7.50)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 No bets at Ffos Las for me tomorrow :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Back to business :nana 13:20 Kempton I will be siding with top weight Lake Legend in this. The horse is only 5 years of age and is lightly raced having only had 8 runs since his debut in November 2007. He has won 50% of his races (1 bumper, 2 novice hurdle races and a handicap hurdle race) and has finished 2nd in a novices hurdle race as well. Done most his racing over 20-21 furlongs (5/8 races) so today's trip of 21 furlongs will be ideal. 3 of his wins have been in the 5 races over 20-21 furlongs. Today's going will be fine as the horse seems to act on all types of ground having won on Good, Good to Firm and Good to Soft going. Is only raised 5lbs for his win LTO at Taunton where he stayed on well to win by 3 lengths. Hutchinson takes the ride again having won on him twice before. The horse is open to more progress so he can easily overcome the 5lb rise in the weights in a wide open contest. 1pt win Lake Legend @ 11/1 (BlueSquare) Only problem with BlueSquare is I won't get Best Odds Guaranteed but I feel the horse will go off at a shorter price tomorrow. 15:40 Kempton Sheriff Hutton has taken well to fences winning his first race over fences on his penultimate start and finishing a good 3rd LTO after a long lay off (1 3/4 lengths behind the winner). 2nd place Nirvana Swing has won since to boost the form. Le Roi Rouge (7th) has also won since. Rated 123 over hurdles with 3 wins and 3 places from 15 runs. Will be more suited to the slight drop back in trip today having won over the distance before. Should be open to more progress in this sphere and should strip fitter for this race after his last run from an absence of 5-6 months. Jockey has a 14% record at the track and has won on the horse over hurdles. He takes over from Costello in the saddle today. 0.5pt win @ 10/1 (Bluesquare)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 1 winner gets this thread into profit :nana Shame I didn't back the horse @ SP since it won @ 16/1, not like me to use a bookmaker that doesn't offer BOG but I really thought the horse would have went off around 9/1. Still an 11/1 winner is still pleasing for me :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Will update figures later: 13:35 Chepstow Strategic Approach won over course and distance in similar ground conditions LTO and today runs in his first race in handicap company off a mark of 121. He won that maiden hurdle race off a mark of 110 but won with great ease by 8 lengths. The heavy ground will not be a problem. Still lightly raced with only 7 races to date so more progression expected. 1pt win@ 5/1 (WillHill - BOG) 14:10 Chepstow The Welsh Grand National looks wide open affair here today but I will side with Miko De Beauchene who has the luxury of winning over course and distance in the past. Has not won for nearly 2 years but is only 5lbs higher than his win in a Grade 3 race at Haydock. Won this race 2 years ago when beating Halcon Genelardais by a head and judging by the weights that form could easily be reversed today but Halcon Genelardais has not won since he won this race 3 years ago although has run fairly consistently in defeat with many places to his name. Does seem to give a good account in this since he was 2nd 2 years ago off a mark of 156 and 3rd last year off a mark of 164. Runs off 157 today so can't be discounted. 0.5pts E/W Miko De Beauchene @ 33/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.5pts E/W Halcon Genelardais @ 10/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Saturday 26th December Lake Legend (1st @16/1, I took 11/1) +11.00 Sheriff Hutton (Unplaced) (-0.50) Monday 28th December Strategic Approach (2nd) (-1.00) Halcon Genelardais (Unpl) (-1.00) Miko De Beauchene (4th) + 3.62 Total for two days: + 12.12 Bets -18 Wins - 2 Places - 1 Losses - 15 P/L - 4.62 Nice to see the thread in profit, was pretty unlucky with Strategic Approach as I really thought he was going to win but was just headed on the run home and couldn't get back up to win.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 13:25 Leopardstown Joncol has a great record since his 2 runs in PTP races in Ireland with every run being a placed effort. Has won 4/6 since he went Chasing. The horse won a Grade 1 race LTO at Punchestown in Heavy going. Won fairly easily although two horses in the race not finishing the race but he did stay on well and went on to win the race when asked to. The horse will relish today's ground conditions having won 3 races in Soft ground and 3 in Heavy ground. Has only won over the distance in a PTP but he has hinted at further by staying on well to win races over 20 furlongs. 1pt win @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:50 Taunton More The Merrier has only had the 9 races to date so is still lightly raced. Is still a maiden but his 2nd to Fortification last month has been boosted since that horse has won 3 times in 3 races since off a mark as high as 123. He was only 1 and a quarter lengths behind that day so a win off this mark of 105 in this race is definately achievable. Is still entitled to improve and should run a good race here today. 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet 365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 None of the above won, no selections at Chelt for me today, not got much time to study :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:20 Plumpton Tarquinius has only had 7 races to date in which the horse has won once, placed 5 times and been pulled up once. The win came over a furlong shorter than today's trip at Wincanton in a Class 4 race, was also 2nd LTO in a class 3 race over the distance. The winner of that race has followed up with another win since so the form has been boosted. Should have no concerns with the Heavy going and can overcome the 3lbs rise in the weights here today. 1pt win @ 4/1 (Bet >365 - BOG) 15:25 Plumpton Senor Shane looks the one to side with here, 2 of his 4 wins have came at this course over a furlong further, one of those wins was by an impressive 30 lengths off a mark of 97 although that was only a 5 runner race and only 3 of the 5 finished. Won by a length at Lingfield LTO over a similar distance in similar Heavy ground conditions off a mark of 96. Raised 5lbs for that and C Studd takes the ride again with a useful 3lb claim. 1pt win @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG)