Newbury - 28th November

[ken678]

2.40 Newbury - Chelsea Harbour- 140 Betfair Fabulous race, as ever. I don't think there is a single horse in here that you could say, after the race, "I don't see how that could win", Any of them are capable - and I think Chelsea Harbour has as good a chance as any. Backed last time for a decent chase at Cheltenham last time & would have finished a good deal closer but for an uncharacteristic mistake. Ground & distance to suit, first time blinkered - every chance. Certainy prefer 140 this to 4/1 Denman.

[chris34]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 1.00 Newbury Be definite relished these conditions on first 2 tries over hurdles finishing 2nd and winning last tiem quite comfortably over in Ireland and form not working out too bad with several behind going on to win and be placed in maiden hurdle events and could be rated to anything off a mark of 120 and taking on bigger obstacles but looks worth a shout in this event. 0.25pt e/w be definite 12/1 vcbet 2.40 Newbury So the big race of the day, and I would love to see Denman win but I feel is probably worth opposing at top weight. Cappa bleu was useful between the flags and made a winning start under rules winning the foxhunter chase at Cheltenham and then made season reappearance over a trip that clearly wasn’t adequate but should improve for this further trip today and has a lot of potential to build on. Snowy morning is probably the strongest irish runner in the field and hasn’t finished to far behind some useful sorts in his time and will not mind the ground conditions and will certainly stay the trip 0.25pt e/w snowy morning 14/1 vcbet (5 places ¼ odds) 0.25pt e/w cappa bleu 9/1 vcbet (5places ¼ odds)

[alexmac]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Right. Heading to Newbury now, not sure if anyone else from PL is going....??

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 1.00 KILVERGAN BOY 33/1 E/W~From a stable i like a lot. This horse won a novice hurdle race over 2m for the trainer hasn't done much since but has been over a lot further and in chases since but fitted with blinkers today and dropped back a bit in distance to 2m4f so i'm hoping will go a lot better today.

[mowgli77]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Don't Panic 12.25 Newbury I can't believe this horse is 18-1 for this race, that seems massive to me so I must be missing something. Maybe it is because it refused to race several times in a row on the flat. To compare, the favourite Sereth had been running in Germany and was useless when raced here several times at Newmarket, often well beaten but today it's 7-4 fav. Don't Panic has won class 4 and class 2 handicaps on soft and good to soft and placed 2nd in 2 listed races on soft ground and ran off a rating of 105 on the flat. It was well beaten on its hurdles debut but was found to be lame. After a 2 month break it came back and was held up by Timmy Murphy who delivered it late as it ran on well and won the race over a similar distance to this race today and that was also a class 3 novice hurdle. Comments were that it had superior flat speed at the end of the race but pulled hard throughout. My only concern today is the jockey on board but I still think 18-1 is huge and will definitely be getting on this each way but thinking it has a great chance of winning.

[mowgli77]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Big Bucks/Nacarat 1.35 Newbury This looks like a fairly straightforward chance for Big Bucks to get another 1 on the formline, most rivals are rated far inferior but the unknown might be Nacarat. Rated 162 over fences it takes this race as a prep for the King George when it will take on Kauto Star. It is rated 27lb lower over hurdles but has not really raced over them very often and might be the one to spring a surprise. Improved from handicaps to graded company as a chaser and was pulled up on last hurdles run at Cheltenham. The horse has had a seasonal run so should be fit enough and might be one for the forecast with Big Bucks. The form of the favourite is top class and it really should not get beat today.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 15:15 Newbury This should be an interesting race with many of these winning or placing in their last run. Dani's Girl is looking for a hat trick today but all her wins have came on good or firmer than good going so she may struggle with the ground conditions today. She did win a listed event at Ascot on Halloween and has been raised 8lbs for that. Trafalgar Road is lightly raced having only 6 runs to his name, won his first race in handicap company on his reappearance LTO over today's trip at Haydock on heavy going and may have more to come here today. Has been raised just 5lbs for the win. His only other win came in a novice hurdle at Musselburgh on good to soft. Nampour has to be respected after winning at Aintree LTO. Has been raised 8lbs for the win and jockey Giles Hawkins has lost 3lbs of his claim so the horse is technically running off a mark 11lbs higher. The extra weight may prove to be too much. Has 1 other win and a place over hurdles from 5 runs. The other win also came at Aintree when winning on Good To Soft. Silk Hall should come on for the run after being 4th in his reappearance at Cheltenham behind Starluck but King's stable is not firing at the moment and he has top weight to contend with. Is a course and distance winner though. 1 pt win Trafalgar Road @ 7/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[Aykay1]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 240 Newbury – What a Friend ew @ 8/1 ladbrokes

Has been thought of as a potential future Gold Cup horse by Nicholls last season but flopped in the RSA Chase, finishing 6^th behind Cooldine. Prior to that he set a high standard of form by beating the high class Carruthers and Ballyfitz. He has since bounced back with a 32 length victory on his seasonal debut and can go well here off a decent looking weight. Ground and trip will be fine.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 14:40 Newbury Not spent that much time on the race but been able to discount a few before starting to look into form etc. There is a couple who I think are in with a strong chance but decided to go for State Of Play. This horse knows what its all about having won this race 3 years ago on Soft going. Runs off the same mark as that win today so he has to be respected on that merit. Also goes well fresh, won this race on his reappearance and won the Charlie Hall chase on his first appearance last season off of 152. Final start was in th Grand National where he finished 4th off a mark of 150. Familiar jockey in Paul Moloney on board who has chose this horse over Cappa Bleu which can be seen as a positive. 1 pt each way @ 14/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 2:05 Newbury: Au Courant 3pts win 15/2 Sportingbet & Finger On The Pulse 1pt win 22/1 Stan James Au Courant is nine but has very few miles on the clock. Signed off last year with a good win at Kempton. He has also won first time out for the past two seasons. With Nicky Henderson going so well his first venture in to handicaps off 138 does not look over taxing. If Finger On The Pulse could recapture some of his previous form the 22/1 would look very big. Last year beat fancied Hennessy runner Barbers Shop at Cheltenham.

[Spooner]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 14:05 - Souwester @ 50/1 SJ (bog) E-W Going for one of the outsiders in this race, looks wide open and although stepping up in class I think he can fair well, this horse often gets round so you should get a run for your money, has shown lots of improvement with age and back off a more competitve mark now. 14:40 - Chelsea Harbour 140 Joe Lively 70 Niche Market 46 Kornati Kid 38 - Betfair Chelsea Harbour - Will need lots of improvement on recent form but I fancy a big run from this one this afternoon, hopefully the first time blinkers will help and he puts in a better round of jumping. Joe Lively - Will need to be at the top of his game but has the ability to run well. What you will get from this horse is a solid round of jumping and I expect to be closer to the front come the end then the back but that's not what the market is suggesting. Niche Market - Winner of the Irish National at Fairyhouse last season and won a decent handicap at Ascot, a lively looking outsider that should also be suited by trip and ground/ Kornati Kid - Hobbs' runner showed some good ability when chasing last season and will look to build on that here, maybe a big ask to come back out for the new season and win this but that's what Denman has to do, back to a reasonable distance after running the marathon at Cheltenham.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Newbury - 28th November FINGER ONTHE PULSE 2.05 Newbury. 0.5 points each way. Not showing his best recently, but dropped to a handly looking mark of 141 for today, so if he can run to more like his ability, ten he's got every chance of winning this. Jumps OK in the main and the trip and ground's not a concern, so at big odds can go well.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 2.05 Two outsider that have e/w chance our SOU'WESTER 50/1 & HOBBS HILL 33/1 both well weighted and well capable on their day

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Newbury - 28th November 2.40 The Big Race of the day~Think the Irish can plunder this and the two i'll be backing e/w our WAR OF ATTRITION 4O/1 & OFFSHORE ACCOUNT 50/1

[Spooner]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Very impressive Big Buck's, ok he did not have to beat much but how far could he have won by.....Ginge's 2/1 will be hard to beat after that!!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Newbury - 28th November I guess the WH market will has to be without the fav from now on. Impressive performance and the only horse that would have given him something to think about Fivefourthree is out for the season. Diamond Harry needs to improve stones to be anywhere near.

[TheRat]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Amazing from Denman I really thought he would get beat today

[ELCAKER]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Almost in tears....almost I say!! What a performance :clap:clap:clap:clap

[Aykay1]

Re: Newbury - 28th November DENMAN :notworthy What a horse :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy I was on What a Friend but found myself cheering on denman in the straight :lol

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Unbelievable :cow:cow On a side note, when interviewing Paul Barber, did the guy say "all bullshit aside???"

[puntyboy]

Re: Newbury - 28th November

Unbelievable :cow:cow On a side note, when interviewing Paul Barber, did the guy say "all bullshit aside???"

:lol, he sure did, had to rewind to make sure!

[Spooner]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Denman. :notworthy:notworthy

[Lee_SHA]

Re: Newbury - 28th November My word, what a horse. That was one of the single best performances I've witnessed. Denman, you are sir, a legend :notworthy

[StuSimmy]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Already said my thoughts in the Hennesey thread but what a horse Denman is :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Newbury - 28th November Big Bucks was amazing today, never off the bridle and just toyed with his opposition. Hard to see that getting beat in the World Hurdle now isn't it? Denman was fantastic, gave them weight and a beating and felt Niche Market ran a cracker too, up there all the way and still managed to grab 3rd place.

[fintron]

Re: Newbury - 28th November niche market looked one paced at the end if my memory serves me correct (bodes well for national), and what a friend looked to have every chance before hanging left when in the lead. Want to watch the replay back before acting for the national/gold cup ante post, but what a friend is backable at 70.0 on betfair so may not have actually been as close as i first thought. Just had a look on sporting life and there was serious money down for denman. Hardly a penny on what a friend.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Newbury - 28th November

niche market looked one paced at the end if my memory serves me correct (bodes well for national)' date=' and what a friend looked to have every chance before hanging left when in the lead. Want to watch the replay back before acting for the national/gold cup ante post, but what a friend is backable at 70.0 on betfair so may not have actually been as close as i first thought. Just had a look on sporting life and there was serious money down for denman. Hardly a penny on what a friend.[/quote'] He did seem to hold every chance, but Denman was taking lengths out of every horse in the final few fences.. It was awesome!!

[fintron]

Re: Newbury - 28th November i suppose the other thing is that denman was giving him a stone or whatever it was, and in the gc, theyll be running off levels. If you were nicky henderson would you go for the ryaniar over the gc with barbers shop? He didnt get home again today?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Newbury - 28th November

i suppose the other thing is that denman was giving him a stone or whatever it was, and in the gc, theyll be running off levels. If you were nicky henderson would you go for the ryaniar over the gc with barbers shop? He didnt get home again today?

I did not expect Barber Shop to stay, but can't really say that he didn't. True he was going well 2 1/2 out. But, he was neck and neck with a proven stayer from some way out. At the line there was not much between the two. Think Barber Shop does stay 3m2f110yds, although there is a good chance he might improve at shorter. If that makes sense. So to answer your question Fin, if I were HRH :lol I'd want to run Barbers Shop in the Ascot Chase. See if it is worth a Ryanair place. I just wonder if Her Maj wants a chance to win the Big, Big one. Even if it is a minute chance.

[fintron]

Re: Newbury - 28th November yeah, that makes sense. Denman will make it a stamina test in the gold cup, cant see barbers shop beating him at the third time of asking, and then there is kauto to worry about too. But i suppose he is classy and youd be tempted to have a punt if you were the owner.