fintron Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 2.30 Southwell There are plenty familiar faces lurking in the line up here for this class 4 sprint over the minimum trip. Five of the runners are course and distance winners and that can prove to be a good pointer here at Southwell, where the surface is unique. Ideally, you want to be drawn down the centre of the track, and of those with a middle draw it is Lesley's Choice that stands out in my opinion. Roger Curtis enjoyed group success over in France at the start of the month with Zafisio and so confidence will be high around his Lambourn yard. Nevertheless, it is the form of the horse that makes the bet for me here, having caught my eye when flashing home to finish runner up tp the well handicapped Invincible Lad over course and distance on the 29th September. It was a performance noticed by Hugh Taylor too, and the selection was posted on Hugh's ATR blog last time out when sent off at 13/2, but, notably, drifting. Personally, I didn't fancy his chances that day given the trip. The horse has reserved all of his best form to date when raced over five furlongs so it was perhaps no surpise to see him weakening inside the final furlong last time. This drop back in trip will suit tomorrow though, he is 3 lb lower than his last win, and I am getting on now just incase Hugh goes in again with this one in the morning and the price collapses. He responded well to first time blinkers recently, I think his last run donning the same headgear can be discounted on the basis of the trip, and if the first time visor works the oracle tomorrow he could go well from the front. 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Another we both like fin ;) Good luck mate fingers crossed 2.00 Southwell Would normally stay away from claimers especially 2yr old ones but angies nap looks to have been found a superb opportunity to get a hatrick on the board. Is now found the winning ways and always runs a cracking race around here have won 2 handicaps recently and well deserve current mark and is therefore well in on the weights and Atzeni claiming a further 3lb! 1pt win angies nap 2.30 Southwell A brilliant 5f sprint on the fibresand and a few of these don’t have southwell form so leaving out for that reason but could go well and that includes feelin foxy who is dangerous if taking to the surface. I have got my shortlist down to 3 and cant go any further. Lesleys Choice is well drawn and ran out a cracking 2nd time before last in a far tougher handicap before flopping when tried over 6f and just not getting home all wins have come at 5f and goes well on the southwell surface and a likely front runner. Figaro flyer is another that loves it round here finishing 2nd when last seen here off a mark of 69 and is now rated 70 and is plenty higher enough in handicap right now but is in such good form and far to over priced at 7/1 from a good draw. I tipped first order last time out when 4th at wolverhampton after an encouraging 4th here time before and is now a further 2lb lower in handicap and looks well handicapped now last winning off a mark of 75 in December last year at great leighs. 0.25pt win lesleys choice 10/1 bet365 bog 0.25pt win Figaro flyer 7/1 bet365 bog 0.25pt win first order 12/1 bet365 bog 3.30 Southwell Salerosa pulled well clear from the rest when second behind miss glitters last week but runs 2lb out of the handicap today and may find this a little too hot. Avertis clearly likes it around here based on 2 runs but recent form suggest probably a little bit out of form. Hilbre court loves it around here and was underestimated last time out by me and the market when finishing 3rd at 40/1 and runs off same mark today and should be in with a shout again back on his favourite track. Mcconnell is still 6lb higher than last win round here and still looks dangerous after a run last time over cd when was left too much to do but running on strongly. 0.5pt win mcconnel 4/1 bet365 0.5pt win hilbre court 4/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fineform Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Lesley's Choice - 2.30 Southwell Friday Southwell favours prominent horses as it can be very difficult to accelerate and make up ground, added to the fact that there is significant kick back if you are behind other horses. The nature of Fibresand is that it needs to be harrowed quite deep and this can throw up some strong biases with parts of the track quicker than others. The centre of the track is generally quicker than being on the rails in the straight and this will suit front runner Lesley's Choice who is handily drawn in stall 5 for this sprint handicap. He has an impressive record around this track which reads: 12327. To my mind, Lesley's Choice appeared to be on the decline but showed improved form from the worst of the draw on his penultimate start in a better race than this over 5f. Showing blistering speed in the first-time blinkers towards the nearside of the track, he kept on going to finish clear second best. Indeed, the only time Lesley's Choice has been out of the places at Southwell was on his last run when racing over 6f. He led until over a furlong out and then started to wander before fading. Again, he had a wide draw that day which clearly didn't help his cause either. So, a return to the minimum trip will suit this speedy type who has yet to prove himself over further. It is also worth noting that a first-time visor replaces the blinkers tomorrow. This is likely to assist his concentration levels further and should not be viewed as a negative. Trainer Roger Curtis had a Group 3 winner at Saint-Cloud last Sunday and jockey Frankie McDonald rides the track well. He is also familiar with Lesley's Choice having won with him at Kempton. In addition, Racing Post Ratings have him joint top-rated and second on Topspeed figures. This further strengthens my case that Lesley's Choice will be difficult to peg back. With all of the above in mind, I was somewhat surprised upon viewing the early evening markets to see Lesley's Choice listed at 10-1 with Bet365. Considering that there are doubts about a number of his opponents ability to handle the surface, I viewed this as too big. As I write, these rather generous odds have been trimmed to 8-1. I'll be interested to see how he is priced up more generally tomorrow but would be surprised if he is anything like 10-1 again. Having said that, there is some value in what is currently available now as I had him marked up as worth an interest at 6-1 or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.30 - Figaro Flyer 3.30 - Avertis Write ups in handicap thread: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/russps-specialisation-big-field-handicaps-flat-42282/index64.html#post1519831 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Hi FF, :welcome and great 1st post. I've moved it into here as there is already a thread started for selections & discussion surrounding Southwell's card on Friday:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 14:30 Southwell I like chris will be having 3 bets in this race: This one is a very popular bet, not only have 3 people in here tipped it up but it is top of the Timeform ratings and the Racing Post has it tipped as well. This is Lesley's Choice who has won over course and distance once and finished 2nd over course and distance twice on his 3 runs over course and distance. Runs off 77 today which was the same mark as he ran off over course and distance last time when he was 2/12. Wasn't drawn well that day and still made it up for 2nd place so with a good draw today I fully expect him to be up battling for the win at the end. This should be an easier race and he is great value at the moment. Visor fitted for the first time today and he might just be very tough to peg back today. Tartatartufata is a multiple course and distance winner. Her last 2 wins have came over course and distance but that was nearly 2 years ago. Runs off 73 today and with a good draw in Stall 6 she could be in with a shout. She has won a Class 2 handicap here off a mark of 86 and her last win here came off 79 so the fact she is 6lbs lower than that must mean she is in with a chance today. Figaro Flyer loves it here with form of 2123122 over course and distance. Her last 2 wins have also came over course and distance with the most recent one back in April off a mark of 66. She runs off a mark 4lbs higher today but the fact she runs so well and has a low draw here means she cannot be discounted. Has won off 87 in the past on the All Weather and also off marks of 72 and 74 so she is definately well handicapped. The strong pace which will be on here will suit her and I expect her to be running on well in the last furlong. All bets Bet 365 - BOG: 1pt each way Lesley's Choice @ 8/1 1 pt each way Figaro Flyer @ 6/1 0.5pts each way Tartatartufata @ 8/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 15:30 Southwell Very open contest this with 7/9 horses in the race having won over course and distance and the other 2 have both won over the distance. Highly Regal has won 6 times on the AW this year with 1 of those wins coming here. They have all been over the mile trip with his other 5 wins coming at Kempton. Is off a career high mark today and is 6lbs higher than his last win but definately can't rule him out of contentions. Mcconnell is also 6lbs higher than his last win which came over course and distance and with Hilbre Court having the better of him LTO here I think the race could be too much for him but again don't want to rule him out. Both horses run off the same terms and I really fancy Hilbre Court to get another course and distance win to his name. The 3rd here LTO was only his 2nd run back from a break so I think he will definately improve today. He also finished ahead of Swiss Art in the same race. Salerosa is another who came close over course and distance LTO when 2nd to Miss Glitters. Is definately in with a good chance today but a career high mark to contend with. 1 pt win Hilbre Court @ 9/2 (Bet 365 - BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 3:30 Southwell: Salient 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Betfred & Salerosa 1pt win 4/1 William Hill Its been a long while since Salient has got his head in front but he went close a couple of times at Lingfield earlier this year and should be competetive off this mark, and slight ease in grade to many of runs this year should help too. First run on this surface and if he takes to it could pull off a mini surprise. Salerosa is three from four here and every chance she can get back to winning ways today. Up in the handicap but lightly raced and can still improve again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Bondage Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov The odds on favourite Angies Nap looks one to swerve in the 2.00 at the price available of 10/11. There's others in this race who could give this one more of a race than the odds indicate and I would have the favourite at around 11/8. Yeadon is a possibility but no value in the 7/2. 7/1 for Point To Prove is about right also. The odds on The Two G's look to be too big though. I've just tried to take 25/1 as it changed to 20/1 but that was still a backable price to a smallish stake as I make it about 9/1 chance. I've had 0.5pt on The Two G's at 20/1 with Blue Square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Bondage Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov I don't like another odds on favourite in the 3.00. Ponting ran a decent race at Windsor and today's price is based solely on that one performance. That run was a good stone better than managed before and taking a short price about a horse with one good performance is a bad idea for me. Inthawain has raced 3 times on the Southwell surface and managed 2 seconds, the form of which is better than Ponting's visit to the course. I've had 1.5pt on Inthawain with Betfred 6/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 4:00 Southwell: Vain Boteli 2pts win 1pt place 20/1 Stan James I find it quite hard to resist horses like this.....why is he here? Up in trip, new surface, trainer I don't know, jockey I don't know, yet I feel that he could pull off a surprise. Only a three year old, lightly raced and while no idea what German form equates too, he did win twice and come second twice. Worth a punt at these odds in a low level race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 6, 2009 Author Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.30 Southwell ..... Lesley's Choice......I am getting on now just incase Hugh goes in again with this one in the morning and the price collapses.....10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). That he did, posted by Hugh just at 9:42 this morning and now into 5/1, a best priced 6/1, ain't he a bugger! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 1.30 High On A Hill I usually only have a cursory look at the two year old races but this one stood out a bit as the outsider of the field in the nursery Showed much better form last time when third in a Salisbury maiden. Those back end salisbury maidens are usually pretty decent. It was also his first look at Soft ground after running on polytrack, which could mean he'll be well suited by the surface today The Godolphin 'hotpot' might well win but he's very short odds for winning a poor maiden race at Brighton on good ground, a bit different to todays test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainbow Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov cornish beau 130 south. 0.5 pts ew. needs to improve on bare form but goes handicapping and should appreicate the slow surface ()Pearl Of Love (IRE) — Marimar (IRE) (Grand Lodge (USA) (9.8f)). bit worried about the pace of the race with being a small field, but should be staying on well and at a price thats very tempting. 15/2 betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov LESLEY'S CHOICE 2.30 Southwell. 0.5 points each way. Gets in off a mark of 77 which gives him winning claims, and although not the most consistent of horses, he does like this surface and so can produce something like his best again today. The trip's not a concern and I like the fact that they try the visor for the first time today. If the headgear work, then improvement can come and that would make him tough to beat. Frankie McDonald a good jockey and more than capable if the horse is good enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 1.30 High On A Hill snip........... The Godolphin 'hotpot' might well win but he's very short odds for winning a poor maiden race at Brighton on good ground, a bit different to todays test. Oh well........he beat the odds on favourite !.......:lol Perhaps I should have just layed the favourite but I never think of laying......might give it a go in the next few days for a change....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.00: Just a quickie - wouldn't be surprised to see a big run here from Thewinnatakesitall. Looks bred for the job, isn't miles out at the weights and has a decent draw. 0.5pts each way. Sorry so late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.30 Tartatartufata Hasn't won since January 2008 (C&D) but hasn't been running too badly of late albeit from a lower turf mark. Returns to fibresand today from a mark 6lbs lower (73) than winning form round here so isn't badly handicapped for the surface. Stable seem to have hit a patch of decent form so everything looks in place for a big run today - place claims at least. 0.5pts each way BBOTD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.00: Just a quickie - wouldn't be surprised to see a big run here from Thewinnatakesitall. Looks bred for the job, isn't miles out at the weights and has a decent draw. 0.5pts each way. Sorry so late. Ignore this - see there are now 3 non runners and its carrying 4lbs over. Sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.30 Colorus With Lesleys Choice now likely to go off favourite it's giving us decent odds about the horses who probably would be favourite if Hugh hadn't picked Lesleys Choice. My short list was 2 - Colorus and Feelin Foxy but course form swings it in favour of Colorus. He's a 3 times CD winner, including last time out. He's gone up 3 lbs for that win but he's an improving type this season, steadily creeping up the weights but still managed to win 4 times. Has the handicapper got him now or is he still on the upgrade ? Like most of these sprinters who run every week all year round he chucks in the odd bad one and if it's today you just have to say 'fair enough' Not keen on Lesleys Choice - it's all based on that one good run at 50/1 here a couple of runs ago. That day he weakened in the last furlong and when tried at 6F he weakened in the last furlong according to the Life race reports. Well, I expect he'll weaken in the last furlong again today and summat will catch him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 4.00 Wabbraan Has a 100% record at the track, 2 from 2 Really went to pieces during the summer being beaten a total of around 140 lengths in his last 3 races - but has had over 4 months off to get over whatever physical or mental problem was ailing him Came back from a break of several months to win first time out this year Being well backed this morning, so assume he's fit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Boys - that was magnificent.....well done all who put forward Lesley's Choice (well before Hugh - does he read this forum?):clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 6, 2009 Author Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Cheers Caker, was more than happy to take 10/1 last night as I had a strong suspicion uncle Hugh would tip it up this morning and the price would come in. 10/1 was too big given his CD form, although the SP was also a bit short I felt (because of Hughs influence). Well done the rest of the guys on this one, a bit of a PL nap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.00: Just a quickie - wouldn't be surprised to see a big run here from Thewinnatakesitall. Looks bred for the job, isn't miles out at the weights and has a decent draw. 0.5pts each way. Sorry so late. Ignore this - see there are now 3 non runners and its carrying 4lbs over. Sorry Finished 2nd @ 50/1 :eek Also well done all those on Lesley's Choice :clap Those on Tartatartufata, I feel really sorry for you. Does that count as a runner? :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 6, 2009 Author Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Unfortunately I think it does RB, the commentator said he lost ten lengths at the start :puke Well done CC with the place, hope you struck the bet before you realised he was 4 lb over!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Unfortunately I think it does RB, the commentator said he lost ten lengths at the start :puke It does, and that in my opinion is disgusting. :puke He didn't fail to come out of the stalls, the stalls shut back over on him. Should be disregarded as a runner in my opinion. No way can a horse give away 10l in a 5f sprint. Particulraly when it is a stall malfunction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Cheers guys :D Hugh Taylor definately copied us today ;) I was on Tartatartufata but only a small each way so wasn't too fussed since Lesley's Choice went on to win. Well done all the others who tipped it, I was happy with my 8/1 and did have a bit more on at the bookie but only at 9/2. Come on Hilbre Court now, noticed it was 6/1 earlier in Betfred but not sure what price it is just now :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Come on Hilbre Court now, noticed it was 6/1 earlier in Betfred but not sure what price it is just now :hope Most bookies between 6 and 8 but PP, Hills and Skybet all going 11's :eek Thats according to oddschecker anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Unfortunately I think it does RB, the commentator said he lost ten lengths at the start :puke Well done CC with the place, hope you struck the bet before you realised he was 4 lb over!:clap On with Betfair. Was bred for surface but didn't realise jock was putting up 4lbs over until noticed it on the RP on course updates (noticed very late) - quickly retracted bet on Southwell thread as I didn't realise until too late. Some nice results here :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 6, 2009 Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov Most bookies between 6 and 8 but PP, Hills and Skybet all going 11's :eek Thats according to oddschecker anyway 9/1 it looks like, will take that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.