Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day

[fintron]

2.20 Doncaster I quite like the chances of Waffle here despite the fact he is long priced. He's a lightly raced three year old that hasn't won since taking a Leicester maiden on debut last April, but he has shown little bits of form that look to give him a chance here. He was a neck second to the highly promising Henry Candy sprinter Armore Propre in an Ascot Group 3 last term and was a respectable second behind Noble Storm in a listed race at Beverley in May, pulling well clear of the remainder of the field. The winner has progressed nicely since and is a listed grade horse so that looks decent form, and although he flopped at Ascot when last seen, perhaps he didn't find six furlongs to his liking. He was running in a Group 3 up against some classy sprinters such as Markab and Jimmy Styles and I am prepared to forgive him that run as he drops down into handicap company here. I noted that the field came down the centre of the track today in the sprint handicap and if they do that tomorrow then he will be well drawn in stall seven, and could be towed into the race with Canadian Danehill drawn next door and Judge 'n Jury and Cape Vale possibly squashing over into a central group and spearheading the attack. 20/1 Bet 365, 2 pts win/1 pt place (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 3.30 - Racing Post Plate Crowded House took this in breathtaking fashion last season and shortened up in all of the classic markets following his win in this race and trainer Brian Meehan sends out Dancing David for this year's renewal. The Danehill Dancer colt bolted up in a Newbury maiden at the beginning of the month, after finishing second at Salisbury on his debut, and has already shown he will not mind slightly soft ground. Martin Dwyer rides, and I'm having a tentative punt in a race that looks a bit of a lottery in all honesty! 20/1 VC Bet, 1 pt EW (40/1 for the Derby ante-post with Bet 365).

[Stevet1859]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 2:20 Doncaster: Hamish McGonagall 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 William Hill & Judge N Jury 1pt e/w 12/1 Skybet (12345) Hamish McGonagall is finally getting some respite from the handicapper and with top apprentice taking a further five pounds off he comes in here off effectively 90. He has been running well in a lot of the top handicaps and deserves a win before the season is out. Likes a bit of cut and could go close. Tim Easterby amongst the winners on Friday. Judge N Jury won this race last year off a five pound higher mark. Seems to excell in big field high class handicaps and has the going in his favour. Likely to be in the shake up.

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 3.30 Racing Post Trophy Co ordinated Cut This horse was well touted for next years Derby by connections before its debut & duly won in a workmanlike fashion under a typical fallon ride. Will stay further & will be an exciting horse next year if all goes well. Chapple Hyam won the race with Authorized in 2006 & Commander Collins in 1998 with the forner going onto Derby glory. With Fallon up tomorrow, i am sure this horse can get placed & 8/1 with Ladbrokes looks a bit of value

[StuSimmy]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 17:15 Doncaster Beau Fighter fits the bill perfectly for me today. Has a 50% record over today's trip in the last 6 months (40% in her liftetime). If you narrow it down further then she is the only horse to win on the ground conditions over the trip. She is lightly raced with only 6 runs to date (5 have came over the trip) so she is definately still progressing in my eyes. Two latest runs off the same mark she runs off today were not too great but she did run on well LTO after being outpaced at one point in the race. Conditions on both days may not have been best for her on Good to Firm and Good going. Fallon is on board today and I think he can definately get her up to win. Conditions today should be ideal for her on Good to Soft which her only win has came on. 1pt win Beau Fighter @ SP

[Spooner]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 15:30 - Dancing David TBP @ 12/5 B365 Got off the mark LTO when winning at Newbury, Tamaathul the 2nd placed horse broke his maiden tag LTO, the selection enjoyed the cut in the ground so he should enjoy conditions this afternoon, looks a tough race and may run into a place.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 2.20 Two 25/1 shots e/w FULLANDBY has run some good races this year without winning he still retains ability at 7yo, My main bet is CAPTAIN GERRARD hasn't been at best this term but is now on a very handy looking mark. If he can get the lead or nearby from leaving the stalls he can run a very big race today imo.

[ken678]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Doncaster 2:20 – Fullandby - 25/1 (ew) Stan James Well drawn (it co-incidentally won the Portland Handicap from this box in 2007) and over a distance and on going which suits it best, the horse has every chance in s typically tight sprint handicap. It has had quite a long and tough season but seems to run best at this time of year and though I confess I don’t know anything about the jockey he has ridden winners for Jarvis, Vaughan, Evans, Eddery and Fahey, amongst others, in the last month so he obviously is not an unskilled garnish – and in as tight a handicap as this his 5lbs claim could be important – even decisive.

[RussP]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 1.50 Doncaster There are currently 12 runners for this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f on good/soft ground. Just 4 of these are trading in single figures and I've found reasons, I believe, to oppose them all. Starla Dancer, from the Fahey yard, is almost certain to go off favourite having won lto and will probably like the ground but that was only its 2nd start in handicap having failed to win in 7 maidens, is raised 6lb and tackles older horses for the first time. Will give its running but price is way too short. Veiled Applause goes well here but failed to win lto after no change in mark despite win previous effort. Therefore, it's hard to envisage a 5lb hike in the weights not being enough to stop this one, especially in what looks like a tougher event. Nevada Desert has shown little this term until the AW brought a return to form. The switch back to turf and a higher mark is a negative. Baltimore Jack has been in cracking form but this is a step up in mark, rise in grade and ground seems to have gone against this one. All this leads me on to my fancy, which is: Admiral Dundas (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - Well drawn in 3 and perfect ground to make its bid here. This one has a nice strike rate with 3 wins, 2 2nds from just 15 runs and has the assistance of the excellent and vastly underrated Joe Fanning on top, which has partnered this one 3 times, winning twice. Won a decent claimer 3 starts ago, under this jockey, before being hampered on the AW off 81 and then finding the gallop much too slow on very soft ground at Salisbury lto. Eased a further 1lb from that run to just 77 and with the good/soft (good in places) ground today, should find conditions more to its liking. Looks overpriced, especially with question marks over its rivals, and I certain believe it will go close in this company.

[fintron]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 1.50 Doncaster Baltmore Jack arrives here on top of his game and although stepped up in grade has been running well over this trip. Must proves he handles ground this soft though, so just a modest stake. 15/2 SJ, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 5.15 Doncaster Clear Sailing shaped as if needing this trip when narrowly beaten off this sort of mark at Wolv last time out. Recent runs at plating level have brought his mark down, yard should bring out further improvement. 10/1 Bet 365, 1.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[chris34]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 1.50 Doncaster Many exposed horses here and many that need fast ground which doesn’t look likely. Veiled applause is worth another chance after being a beaten favourite last time out when not getting the easiest run through has been rised 5lb for that but mchugh is able to claim 5lb so runs off last winning mark and shouldn’t mind the cut. Starla dancer won a solid race last time out at york over this trip and is another that wont mind the cut has been raised 6lb but tylicki able to claim 3lb which makes the rise look capable at a decent price. 0.5pt win starla dancer 3/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w veiled exposed 7/1 pp 4.05 Doncaster Lochiel has won some valuale races last 2 times out and is sure to get the trip unlike a few of these and has been rised 6lb for a cosy win in a 5 runner field but with fallon in the seat anything could be possible. Hillview boy cant be ruled out in these conditions having won on soft ground in a class 2 handicap and was then 3rd last time out of revised mark in a class 2 and takes a step back in class today and should find this easier. 0.25pt e/w lochiel 7/1 hills 0.25pt e/w hillviewboy 10/1 vcbet 5.15 Doncaster Ahmedy is a useful sort by the looks of it and useful over hurdles and made a winning return from lay off on the aw and gets to run off same mark back on turf. 0.25pt e/w ahmedy 7/1 tote

[chris34]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day

3.30 - Racing Post Plate Crowded House took this in breathtaking fashion last season and shortened up in all of the classic markets following his win in this race and trainer Brian Meehan sends out Dancing David for this year's renewal. The Danehill Dancer colt bolted up in a Newbury maiden at the beginning of the month, after finishing second at Salisbury on his debut, and has already shown he will not mind slightly soft ground. Martin Dwyer rides, and I'm having a tentative punt in a race that looks a bit of a lottery in all honesty! 20/1 VC Bet, 1 pt EW (40/1 for the Derby ante-post with Bet 365).

Well done fin for getting on before pricewise got on it!! I wish you all the luck mate as far as I am concerned my 2yr old strike rate is piss poor and looks a hot contest so gonna just watch lol although the go dolphin runner does look a big price!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day 1:15 Doncaster: Unshakeable Will 3pts win 1pt place 14/1 Stan James Unshakeable Will was a solid second to Bahraj last time out with pair well clear. A repeat of that form could see him go close here, even though has been put up for that.

[fintron]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day

Well done fin for getting on before pricewise got on it!! I wish you all the luck mate as far as I am concerned my 2yr old strike rate is piss poor and looks a hot contest so gonna just watch lol although the go dolphin runner does look a big price!

Cheers mate. It is a lottery this race isnt it but i thought the 20s was worth a punt and now pricewise has since got on I might even lay off for a free bet, although i only had a min bet and should prob just let it ride

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Agree with Fin on Waffle but also like Quest For Success in this 2.20. Is being tried at 5f for the first since his first ever start. Has won a 7f class 3 and 6f class 2 so far this year. Is off a high mark of 95 with Tylicki taking 3 off. Off a mark of 95 (without a claimer) has finished 6/20 and 6/25 both at 6f. I'm hoping that with Tylicki 3 off he can be competitive off a mark of 92 and the drop in trip will suit. Also liked Invincible Lad being dropped to 5f but as Hugh Taylor tipped him, value has been lost imo. Quest For Success E/W

[StuSimmy]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day

17:15 Doncaster Beau Fighter fits the bill perfectly for me today. Has a 50% record over today's trip in the last 6 months (40% in her liftetime). If you narrow it down further then she is the only horse to win on the ground conditions over the trip. She is lightly raced with only 6 runs to date (5 have came over the trip) so she is definately still progressing in my eyes. Two latest runs off the same mark she runs off today were not too great but she did run on well LTO after being outpaced at one point in the race. Conditions on both days may not have been best for her on Good to Firm and Good going. Fallon is on board today and I think he can definately get her up to win. Conditions today should be ideal for her on Good to Soft which her only win has came on. 1pt win Beau Fighter @ SP

Was 4.4 on betfair last night but due to non-runners I only got 11/8 (just missed 6/4) so now have a 2 pt win @ 11/8 (VCBET - BOG)

[TheRat]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day :eek Pretty impressive

[Spooner]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Yup, looks a quality horse.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day As said before, can't stand O'Brien, but that's a hell of a horse he has got.

[Spooner]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Well done in the 2:20 SER/Fin. :clap

[fintron]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day

Well done in the 2:20 SER/Fin. :clap

Cheers, well done Ram for the winner. RE St Nicholas Abbey, 5/2 for the Derby now, talk about and overreaction :eek I made the same mistake last year backing Crowded House off the back of a good show in this race, and he was a dog this year. Rainbow View was another that left her form behind when turned out in a classic at three, I wouldn't take 5/2 for him to line up nevermind win the Derby :lol

[Spooner]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Good point regarding Crowded House, looked great towards the back end of last year but didn't see that form this year. 5/2 does look short but then again was an impressive run. Frankie said Al Zir was the best Godolphin had I think on the Morning Line the other week.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Nice one 'Ram' :clap

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day :cheers Cheers Lads

[Couch Potato]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day

RE St Nicholas Abbey, 5/2 for the Derby now, talk about an overreaction :eek ....... I wouldn't take 5/2 for him to line up never mind win the Derby :lol

Speaking as a betting man, I agree 100% - you are absolutely spot on. Speaking as a racing fan, I was feeling a just little deflated after Sea The Stars was retired - never see another like him etc,etc. Then, blow me, along comes another horse we can dream about becoming an all time great. Absolutely breathtaking performance, cruising speed, blinding turn of foot, the 2nd looks a rock-solid yardstick - no wonder we're all over-reacting! Seriously, I do think St N A will be rated higher than S T S was as a 2yo. Let's hope all goes well with him over the winter and he gets to prove his worth in next year's classics.

[TheRat]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Yea, I mean of coourse the 2yr old form may not carry over to 3yr old, seen it happen many times, but for now that was an excellent performance and something to get excited about at the end of the season!