Best bet of the day 29th Sept

[chris34]

4.50 Southwell Valid point is in fantastic form at the moment and just cant be crossed off again even off a 6lb higher mark today when winning super cosily yet again, has run well at wolverhampton but yet to be seen at southwell but run style is likely to suit liking to race prominent or lead. 1pt win valid point

[bowles10]

Best bet of the day Tues 29th Sept missed it today due to work, so better get my 10th bet in tomorrow 4.30 Sedgefield Decided to go for the horse that runs well on the course as Sedgefield is a bit of a specilaist track but FRED BOJANGALS has form figures of 1-3-5-2-1-3, won here off 85 before finishing 3rd here on latest appearance off this mark. was 2nd in this race last year & has a chnace to go one better Tiger o'toole looks to have a major chance but this is its debut over fences & pitched in at the deep end despite being on a good mark

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 4.20 Southwell I've spent a while trying to crack this handicap as it has been ages since I last managed a winner at Southwell. Having studied the race the tissue I came up with was as follows: The Nifty Fox 15/2, Ocean Blaze 17/2, Guto 10/1, Rebel Duke 10/1, Invincible Lad 11/1, Pawan 12/1, Tabaret 12/1, Hypnosis 12/1, Luscivious 16/1, Baby Strange 18/1, Flash McGahon 18/1, Tom's Laughter 20/1, Imprimus Tagula 28/1, Lesley's Choice 33/1. The obvious discrepency between my prices and those available at the minute surround the Dandy horse, but even if my price underestimates him too much, I cannot be having him at 11/2 as I think he is one of those you have to put into the "too tough to find without guesswork" category, given his recent form. His mark has plumetted a stone and headgear may help this one that may have been plotted but I make The Nifty Fox and Luscivious the value bets in the race, and have opted for the latter. He has won three times at this course, including once over this trip, and once in this grade, and his prominent racing style is ideal for this minimum trip. It was not that long ago that we won off 4 lb lower and his run at Catterick can be ignored on the basis of a poor draw and him not having the race run to suit. At Ayr, last time out, he also broke a little slowly and was forced to race in mid-division, and that was not ideal. So although he must break better tomorrow considering they will go all guns blazing, I think he is overpriced. The yard do at least have a recent winner to their name and he wasn't disgraced running under a penalty on his last all-weather start at Wolverhampton. The return to fibresand could see him improve and I'll take him each-way at a price. For competition purposes though, 1 pt win.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 14.10 Warwick Ghost Dancer to win: This horse has been in fine form as of late and finally got his head back in front over this course and distance when beating "Triple Dream" at the tail end of last month. Dropped back down in class LTO when he was 2nd to "Just Sam" off a mark 5lbs higher than his win. Runs off the same mark today and should definately be thereabouts especially with Ryan Moore on board. Hes drawn well today and should have a big chance today off this mark.

[palaceman]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 3:40 Warwick. Black Dahlia. 1 point LAY This horse had gone 17 races without a win when scoring at Leicester last week. After that previous win in June 2008, he was bumped up in the weights and it was clearly too much of an impediment to him. It was only when he finally got down to a mark similar to his previous win that he managed to get his head in front again. For winning last week he has a 6lbs penalty, and I suspect that will begin the process again, and he is worth laying.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 2:10 Warwick - Nativity - Back Think this one could be away in a manger, with no crib for a bed. Only Jesus knows how he hasn't won a race yet, but I think today could be his chance. He was denied when there was no room at the inn lto, but if he finds the gaps then even Herod won't stop him today. 20/1 looks a massive price, and I think that despite the fact that he's looked like a donkey on his way to Bethlehem on a couple of his starts, he may be able to lose his maiden tag today 1pt win

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept have you been eating smarties again this morning Wizzkid? High as a kite, knocking over coke towers ala the history class of 2003 lol

[Pumpit]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept Sedgefield 4.30pm Tiger O Toole 1pt lay LTO imv this horse was lucky to win as on 2 sep occasions in the said race was in trouble and made a good return to win but lady luck wont be so kind 2 times in a row if any probs surface today. Will have to be in really good form to win today which i cant see v a field that is strong today,jumping will have to be spot on and will have to try and run a few in the race down but i cant see this today,laying. Goodluck Whatever You Bet Today

[BillyHills]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 230 Sedgefield: Desert Soul Tricky looking handicap but I have the top one Desert Soul rated above the rest and his course form is pretty good, having lived near Sedgy for a while I know course form is more valuable than normal. His style of running from the front should burn off most of these by the home turn and his second to Word Of Warning reads well, his conqueror at Cartmel has hosed in since and he finished in front of Woody Valentine last time which has won since so the form is solid.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 2.10 Warwick - Golden Dixie I think the old timer Golden Dixie offers great value, has had a pretty decent season for a 10 year old. Has won a class 5 handicap, placed in 2 class 4 handicaps and is running in this lowly grade for the first time this year. Has placed off 71 and won off 68 this year, is now at 65. Was poor lto, but 2 starts before that went down by 5 lengths in a class 5 handicap on the soft, which isnt preferred. Before that went down by 1 1/2 lengths in a class 4 handicap, a similar run should be good enough to take this imo. Can get 25/1 top price which is great value.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept

2:10 Warwick - Nativity - Back Think this one could be away in a manger, with no crib for a bed. Only Jesus knows how he hasn't won a race yet, but I think today could be his chance. He was denied when there was no room at the inn lto, but if he finds the gaps then even Herod won't stop him today. 20/1 looks a massive price, and I think that despite the fact that he's looked like a donkey on his way to Bethlehem on a couple of his starts, he may be able to lose his maiden tag today 1pt win

Nice play Wizzkid, I'll say a prayer for you mate:lol

[cc75]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept Warwick 2.40: Subtefuge 0.5pts each way Think this Henry Cecil filly has a decent chance today. Finished a nice 2nd over 6f at Folkestone on debut despite showing signs of greenness but then appeared to disappoint next time out over 6f at Yarmouth. Finished 5th on that occasion but the form isn't as bad as at first glance - the 6th and 8th home that day went on to finish close up 3rd placed in maidens next time out and the 11th went on to win her next race so the race may have been above average. If the step up to 7f today suits and with Henry Cecil's record at this track in 2009 very good (overall 2 from 4; 1 from 1 with 2yos) and Tom Queally also having an impressive record here, there's every chance that the 11/1 currently on offer could be too big and certainly offers each way value.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 4.30 Sedgefield PILCA catches my eye at a tasty price in this 20f Handicap Chase. A winner at Perth in May off 107. Hasn't been disgraced since in slightly better races, but went up 6lb for that win at Perth and has been gradually dropping since. 7/12 LTO but this was at a distance that perhaps did not suit. Runs today off 110 but, a big plus for me is the jockey who takes 7lb off meaning Pilca looks to have a great shout and can hopefully run into a place as he seems to be held up and has stayed on well in the past at this distance. PILCA E/W @ 21.0/4.70

[Trendsman]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept

Warwick 2.40: Subtefuge 0.5pts each way Think this Henry Cecil filly has a decent chance today. Finished a nice 2nd over 6f at Folkestone on debut despite showing signs of greenness but then appeared to disappoint next time out over 6f at Yarmouth. Finished 5th on that occasion but the form isn't as bad as at first glance - the 6th and 8th home that day went on to finish close up 3rd placed in maidens next time out and the 11th went on to win her next race so the race may have been above average. If the step up to 7f today suits and with Henry Cecil's record at this track in 2009 very good (overall 2 from 4; 1 from 1 with 2yos) and Tom Queally also having an impressive record here, there's every chance that the 11/1 currently on offer could be too big and certainly offers each way value.

Nice call and a 10/1 return :clap

[Irishbugger]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept 4.20pm Southwell 'Baby Strange' Close-up over 5fls 2 runs ago in a decent field, led for 5fls of a 7fl race last time out against some good horses. Seems massively over-priced today in what looks to be a very open race. Drawn in the middle, should be able to lead these, hopefully all the way to the post.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept Well Done Charlie, deserved that mate!!

[cc75]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept

Well Done Charlie' date=' deserved that mate!![/quote'] Really fancied it but almost didn't post (logged in a couple of times earlier to post but bottled it), just in case i hit another loss in what can be one of my lengthy runs of losers!! Glad I did post it now though - thanks. You watch now, someone will post a 25/1 shot to rob me either today or tomorrow lol - thats the fun of this comp though, it's never over!! Thanks too to Trendsman for his comments ;)

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day 29th Sept cracker CC :clap