dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hey cru :welcometo PL. Cheers for the feedback, ill be running with it til 50 games at least to see if i can get the magic 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Dan, unlucky with yesterdays matches. Where is the Vicente match? I cannot find it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Dan' date=' unlucky with yesterdays matches. Where is the Vicente match? I cannot find it.[/quote'] yeh sorry mate i meant vicenza. Lost the first 3 so far. The elusive 4th match is escapin me lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune While I was checking the results of Saturday WC Qualifiers I noticed almost every game had some late goals. There were 21 matches, in 18 of them a goal or more was scored in the last 25-30 minutes. The odds of the correct score in min 60 is around 3.5 so for a stake of 4 the liability is around 10. Maybe it's worth a try. By the way, a few mins ago Torquay scored (min 77) and I layed 2-1 at 3.6 in min 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Betis - Irun layed 1-0 min 60 at 2.86. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Betis - Irun layed 1-0 min 60 at 2.86. Hi cav im a little lost mate. This sounds different to my correct score system as i back the scores not lay them! Is this something new you have come up with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Betis - Irun layed 1-0 min 60 at 2.86. Hi cav im a little lost mate. This sounds different to my correct score system as i back the scores not lay them! Is this something new you have come up with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Betis - Irun layed 1-0 min 60 at 2.86. Hi cav im a little lost mate. This sounds different to my correct score system as i back the scores not lay them! Is this something new you have come up with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok so 21 match losing streak now, still 14 games left tho to get the elusive 4th correct bet to prove ths system works Vicente 16 2.36 2 -2 :wall albinoleffe 17 2.26 2 -2 :wall padova 19 2.06 2 -2 :wall cadiz 19 2.18 2 -2 :wall Profit/loss 30 Total stake 72 Yield 41.67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so just one on for tomoro, but one is all it takes........ :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope tranmere 17 2.42 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mangetous Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi cav im a little lost mate. This sounds different to my correct score system as i back the scores not lay them! Is this something new you have come up with? I might be wrong but I think he means that he is laying the current score in-play. For instance, he states that the odds on the score remaining the same after 60 minutes of play in most matches are around 3.5. With the Torquay match, he layed the correct final score at 2-1 in the 60th minute at 3.6 [the score at the time]. Torquay scored late on for him to win his bet. It seems a pretty good system as most goals are scored in the second half and like he says, the liability of such a bet is not massive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune In the Betis - Irun game last night the score was 1-0 in min 60. The odds to lay the correct score were at that moment 2.86. My point was : in the majority of the matches at least one of the teams scores a goal or more after min 60. If you lay the score which is in the 60th minute you most likely win your bet. The lay odds are low , between 2 - 2.5 so you don't need a high strike rate to be in profit. I looked at the stats in English Premier League and Spanish Liga to see how many matches had goals scored after min 60. In EPL Round 1, 4 games had goals after min 60 (winning CS lays) and 6 finished with the score recorded in the 60th min ( the CS lay would have been lost) R 1: 4 - 6 But in the following rounds situation changed : R 2: 4 – 2 R 3: 6 – 4 R 4: 4 – 6 R 5: 9 – 1 R 6: 8 – 2 R 7: 8 – 2 R 8: 8 – 2 The same in La Liga R 1: 6 – 4 R 2: 7 – 3 R 3: 8 – 2 R 4: 8 – 2 R 5: 7 – 2 R 6: 8 – 2 Or in Serie A R 1: 6 – 4 R 2: 5 – 5 R 3: 7 – 3 R 4: 5 – 5 R 5: 4 – 6 R 6: 8 – 2 Perhaps you like higher risk and you expect odds to shorten. If you have 1-2 in min 85 the lay odds are 1.2 – 1.3 (as it was in West Ham – Fulham last week). If you expect the equalizer and lay the 1-2 in min 85 the odds are 1.15 – 1.30. This means a profit of 15 – 20 for a liability of 4. Guess what ? In the last 2 rounds 12 matches of 20 in EPL had goals scored after min 85 !!! Imagine how profitable could be these lays ! I think it’s worth a try not only in the EPL matches but generally at all the in-play games. Apologies for the long post but I wanted to make myself clear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi cav, i like your findings, this has good potential. im going to do some back testing and hopefully come back with some solid stats on it :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok cav its difficult to find these stats but what i did find was all based on the epl last season, out of the 380 games played, the average games in a round of 10 that had goals scored past the 60th minute were 6.24. Based on this if you were laying 10 quid down on every league gamea nd the average lay was odds 3, then you would lose 490 quid. on the other hand if the average lay was at odds 2.5, then you would have made 225 quid. all that being said you could look for games that had the score laying odds at 2.5 and only lay them but in the examples you have given they have been at 2.86 and 3.6 so not sure where the average lay odds of 2-2.5 have come from. further to this you could research those teams that concede or score in the last half hour and only back them but the bookies arent daft and they would have increased the lay odds on those teams. im not sure where to look on lay odds at times of the game, but might look more in to this, however at this point the system looks doutbful in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mangetous Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok cav its difficult to find these stats but what i did find was all based on the epl last season, out of the 380 games played, the average games in a round of 10 that had goals scored past the 60th minute were 6.24. Based on this if you were laying 10 quid down on every league gamea nd the average lay was odds 3, then you would lose 490 quid. on the other hand if the average lay was at odds 2.5, then you would have made 225 quid. all that being said you could look for games that had the score laying odds at 2.5 and only lay them but in the examples you have given they have been at 2.86 and 3.6 so not sure where the average lay odds of 2-2.5 have come from. further to this you could research those teams that concede or score in the last half hour and only back them but the bookies arent daft and they would have increased the lay odds on those teams. im not sure where to look on lay odds at times of the game, but might look more in to this, however at this point the system looks doutbful in my eyes. I will trial this tonight [low stakes] on the match between Tranmere and Stockport. My calculations show that 35.29% of goals have occurred after the 60 minute mark of League One matches involving Tranmere, and 32.14% of goals occurring after 60 minutes in league matches involving Stockport. Therefore, on 60 minutes the true odds [excluding the bookmaker's profit margin] should be 1.51 on no more goals/current score being correct, and 2.97 for another goal to be scored in the match. Of course, the bookmaker's profit margin has to be factored into this equation and I have no idea of the prices at the hour mark. But I think that it is worth trialling. The above calculations are backing odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune I will trial this tonight [low stakes] on the match between Tranmere and Stockport. My calculations show that 35.29% of goals have occurred after the 60 minute mark of League One matches involving Tranmere, and 32.14% of goals occurring after 60 minutes in league matches involving Stockport. Therefore, on 60 minutes the true odds [excluding the bookmaker's profit margin] should be 1.51 on no more goals/current score being correct, and 2.97 for another goal to be scored in the match. Of course, the bookmaker's profit margin has to be factored into this equation and I have no idea of the prices at the hour mark. But I think that it is worth trialling. The above calculations are backing odds. so if you find backing odds above 1.51 or laying odds below 2.97, its a clear value bet, i think this could be worthwhile trialling over 50 games and like you say at low stakes. It would mean a little work pre-match tho on all in play games to see what the value odds would be on each game, might try this myself tho and see what comes up. ive got that game on my ht/ft 2x system tonight so ill be keepin an eye anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune tranny sacked barnsey over the weekend :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune dan,,, how do you backtest the ratings on 365 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune do you mean bet365 or 365stats?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune sorry mate, the 365 stats site ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune you go in to league your after, than to the tables. From there you should see a ratings section. When you go in there it should be pretty straight forward ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune you go in to league your after, than to the tables. From there you should see a ratings section. When you go in there it should be pretty straight forward ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana cav deserves a pint after that lol :cheers:cheers:cheers:cheers:cheers i jumped on at 1.6, then they scored 3 mins later :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mangetous Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so if you find backing odds above 1.51 or laying odds below 2.97, its a clear value bet, i think this could be worthwhile trialling over 50 games and like you say at low stakes. It would mean a little work pre-match tho on all in play games to see what the value odds would be on each game, might try this myself tho and see what comes up. ive got that game on my ht/ft 2x system tonight so ill be keepin an eye anyway. My choice at 60 minutes was to either back the 0-0 score at 2.90 or lay at 2.92. I chose to back as that was the clear value according to the true odds I calculated. But now its 0-1 - so maybe I should have laid [will keep note of this]. Not too bothered though, laid the 0-1 scoreline as I believe there will be another goal and I currently have a bet on over 2.5 goals placed before the match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune My choice at 60 minutes was to either back the 0-0 score at 2.90 or lay at 2.92. I chose to back as that was the clear value according to the true odds I calculated. But now its 0-1 - so maybe I should have laid [will keep note of this]. Not too bothered though' date= laid the 0-1 scoreline as I believe there will be another goal and I currently have a bet on over 2.5 goals placed before the match. :( the odds were value, if the lay odds were below 2.97, which they were, it was a value bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mangetous Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :( the odds were value' date=' if the lay odds were below 2.97, which they were, it was a value bet[/quote'] true, but the true odds for the 0-0 scoreline after 60 minutes was 1.51 whereas the odds offered for the 0-0 scoreline [to back] was 2.90 on Betfair. That seemed better than the 2.92 offered to lay [true odds were 2.97]. But perhaps I am wrong LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so just one on for tomoro, but one is all it takes........ :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope tranmere 17 2.42 2 -2 :wall 22 game losing streak, where is that 4th result...............:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune only one game on tomoro aswell Game 38 croatia u21, home odds @ 2.28, 2x odds @ 18.5, 2 quid on :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune god ill be glad when the league matches come back this weekend and i can start my systems back up again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune My bad, I should have written the odds to lay the present score in min 60 are around 3 - 3.5 not 2 - 2.5. Apologies. Anyway, the are going down fast approaching 2.8 in a few minutes after ther 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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