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Five systems - now down to 2 - LTD and correct scores.

dannkez2407

By dannkez2407
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune

I know exactly what you mean about days when there isn't much on offer and getting burnt by forcing out bets you wouldn't otherwise have done. As of now' date=' your system/selection policy seems to have served you right. These games fall into that criteria so I would say have faith. As for my thoughts I'll let the stats talk for themselves on the obscure games you have chosen. Im on Juve to beat Genoa, and I think it could well go over. Not sure about Gijon going over however. I wish you all the best and I will follow with interest.[/quote'] cheers UV, ill see how my nerves are later as to whether i decide to green up if possible, im definitely going to move to a minimum game selection policy after today, no matter what happens:hope
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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune

One more question dan :D... Your percentage stats you mention, where you get them from:unsure... Cheers :beerThis time next year.....:beer
no probs paul, go to http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php its like the bible for gamblers, you can get some awesome ideas when you download the season stats to excel and start discovering patterns :cheers
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brecki

brecki

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Re: Five systems of fortune Hi, could you please explain exactly, what you do using your over strategie? You use the page of B365 and check all games of the main leagues, excluding cup games - Right ? If the Odds for OVER are lower than the Odds for Under, the game qualifies. - Correct? What about the average of home and away side you talked about ? What do you mean when you say it has to be above 3 ? Do you mean the number of goals scored and conceded in alle homegames divided by the number of games? Must both or just one of the teams have an average above 3 ? Thanks for help. Regards Brecki

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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune hi brecki no probs. Yep you got it all right up until the home away scores. Basically i take the average goals scored and conceded at home and the same for the away sides record and add them together and then divide by 2 to get an average. This average must be 3 or above. It normally knocks out half the teams you find to give you a firm list. And if you wanna add a further twist, lay the overs when two goals are scored to guarantee profit early out of those that only finish with 2. Hope that helps

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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune well that was interesting night :lol results as follows - Correct Score Xamax @ target 40, stake 25, last minute goal took it to 4-1, so win and profit - £15 Lay the draw Gefle @ 3.5, stake 16 - 0-3, but i wimped this and greened up at 0-1, so profit - £5 Genoa @ 3.55, stake 15.69, 2-2, but a smooth move and greening up at 2-1 earned me £3.50 OVERS Gijon @ 1.88, stake 10 - this one hasnt finished yet but after putting this on realised i had only taken in to consideration 3 games of home away stats so was very dubious, and at 1-0, i greened up for a cracking 16 pence. :lol:lol beats losing a tenner though. Genoa @ 2, stake 10 - greened up on this at 1-1, profit £5 Lucerne @ 1.7, stake 10, 1-2, profit £7 Xamax @ 1.655, stake 10, 4-1, profit £6.50 total profit for day = +42.16 clap.gifclap.gifclap.gifDancingCow.gif Total profit overall = +216.68 Total stake/liability = 746.4 Yield overall 29% learnt a valuable lesson though, on days when the system doesnt pull up too many results, i will only go ahead if the games are going in play so i can green up early, :cheers

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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune cheers gents, welcome elwormio, its easier than you think lol Right lets see if fortune is on my side tonight...... a lot on today EVENS UCD stake 5 @1.9 Correct Score Cottbus Union Berlin Chateaurowx Guingamp All target 50, stake 33 each Lay the draw Paraguay u20 Oberhausen Genclebirligi Emmen Accrington Stanley St Patricks Olhanense All laid at 15 OVERS Cottbus Oberhausen Excelsior FC Eindhoven TOP Oss Volendam All staked at 20 each :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope

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paul2009

paul2009

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Re: Five systems of fortune Well done again Dann... :clap The more i think about it, the more i like this system. Five systems running along side one another. If one lets you down, you have four other to help. Also, you can go 'In play' to limit damages, or clean up! :clap. They will be days when things dont go according to plan, but its the long time profit that counts. Three days + 200...:rollin:rollin:rollinTop man..:cheers. I have already bookmarked this page, and will continue to watch... And with so many games played nowadays, this system will could be used neally every day... :nana :beerThis time next year....:beer

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Sawyer

Sawyer

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Re: Five systems of fortune Nice work Dan! I'll be following this thread.. ;) I think best one is the lay the draw system. I'm a little bit suspicous about EVENS system since Man Utd had a ODD STREAK for 12 games. OVER system looks good also. I'll be following these two systems. GL Mate!

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footballgenius

footballgenius

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Re: Five systems of fortune Top work Dan!! bookmarked this page too!! :-) 2 questions if you dont mind? when you work out the overs bet, you say you add the scores up for the home tema and away team, is that every game to the home team has played at home or both home and away? so as season gets longer, will take a bit of time to work out? is this right? also, how much roughly you stake each day?? oh and one more thing, sorry to be a pain, withe the correct score, you back every result that you have said yeah? how do you work out how much to put on each one?

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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune thanks a lot guys, nice to know your watching on......:D FG, overs home away is worked out by going on soccerstats.com and picking the home team, on there for the current season it will give you the teams average goals scored and conceded at home, i add these together. then i do the same for the away side, but obvioulsy only looking at the away stats. once both is added together, ill divide that by 2 to give me an average of goals per game if they these two played each other. i only continue if its 3 or over. my stake is normally worked out by the % of my bank, but while im in early days im sticking to the inital % i did, which i think was around 5%. so at the mo... correct scores im looking for a target of 50 lay the draw, my liability to not go above 40 correct score stakes are worked out as follows if 0-0 is at odds of 20.0, then i take my target which is 50 and divide this by the odds, which on this occasion is 2.5 = my stake. I do this with the other 5 scores which normally means you end upi putting on between 30 and 35 and winning 50 if any of the 6 come in. LTD - if i remember right i took these stats from EPL, scottish, spain, italy, france for the last season, which gave me around 2000 or so results. its a fair interpretation of any league tho as the odds are set by the bookies based on these facts. overs im settling at 20 for now. home faves is anywhere between 30 and 40 to start.

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dannkez2407

dannkez2407

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Re: Five systems of fortune

Nice work Dan! I'll be following this thread.. ;) I think best one is the lay the draw system. I'm a little bit suspicous about EVENS system since Man Utd had a ODD STREAK for 12 games. OVER system looks good also. I'll be following these two systems. GL Mate!
your right mate, im dubious about evens, ive got 3 teams on at the mo, i think once they are done im gonna drop this part of the system, the profit is slow and not enough to keep up with the other four
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cavenecadas

cavenecadas

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Re: Five systems of fortune

Top work Dan!! bookmarked this page too!! :-) 2 questions if you dont mind? when you work out the overs bet, you say you add the scores up for the home tema and away team, is that every game to the home team has played at home or both home and away? so as season gets longer, will take a bit of time to work out? is this right? also, how much roughly you stake each day?? oh and one more thing, sorry to be a pain, withe the correct score, you back every result that you have said yeah? how do you work out how much to put on each one?
At oddschecker.com the have a dutching calculator. Upper right side at "betting tools". You just insert the odds and the stake and it shows you how much to put on each bet in order to have a equal profit.
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rogsmith

rogsmith

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Re: Five systems of fortune dannkez2407,i have a footy system that i do it throws up a fair few selections from friday to sunday and depending whats going on sometimes a few during the week.Im gonna run these along with your overs and lay the draws.This is what i got today. :top.getTopWindow().frames["GBE_header'>19:00 Volendam v Dordrecht - Asian Handicap (-0/0.5) back Dordrecht (+0/0.5) :top.getTopWindow().frames["GBE_header'>19:00 Chateauroux v Istres - Match Odds back Chateauroux :top.getTopWindow().frames["GBE_header'>19:00 Guingamp v Bastia - Match Odds back Guingamp :top.getTopWindow().frames["GBE_header'>19:00 Laval v Dijon - Match Odds back Laval :top.getTopWindow().frames["GBE_header'>19:00 Emmen v Helmond - Match Odds back Helmond :top.getTopWindow().frames["GBE_header'>20:15 Olhanense v Braga - Match Odds back Braga

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Hooloovoo

Hooloovoo

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Re: Five systems of fortune Your systems are interesting. I am particurlary interested in LTD. I thought 17% draws in the home odds band of 3.0 - 5.0 sounded too good to be true, so i ran my own calculations. Below is an excerpt from my thread "Calculating possibility of a draw": Using a small Java program, I have analyzed CSV files from football-data.co.uk The following leagues: Premier League Championship League One League Two Conference Bundesliga 1 2nd Bundesliga Primera division Segunda division from the following seasons: 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 And here are the stats: Matches: 16,078 Matches with home odds (from Bet365) within 3.0 - 5.0: 958 Of these 958 matches, 242 ended a draw. That's 25%. You said you analyzed about 2,000 matches. Is it possible that your 17% is variance, generated from that particular season? I don't want to be the one spoiling the party, i would love for that figure (17%) to be true. Who is missing what?

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