Grex Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Interesting statistics, Kumquat Tree :ok. However, I think you can reduce the over-round considerably if you shop around. Also, remember this system spreads the odds net a bit wider (1.45 to 1.80)..... also, the selections are restricted to EPL and Italian Serie A (which have historically produced the best yield). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites (1.45 to 1.80) OK then. 12,988 matches it is. 7,448 home wins returned 12,042 units, so minus 7.3% 3,252 draws returned 11,217 units, so minus 13,6% 2,288 away wins returned 11,289 units, so minus 13,1% So plenty to shop around, but at least you're still right to stick with the home win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites OMG.... you must have an excellent data base :clap One question..... which source of odds are you basing your analysis on (i.e one bookie, or best odds offered) ? Also, is your selection of 12,988 matches :loon restricted to EPL and IA, or all major European leagues ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Ah, it brings memories of the back-testing which I did as well. For those who are interested, you can take a look at this: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/short-priced-home-favourites-90190/index5.html#post1571902 One suggestion of minimising the loss (when there's negative yield) or increasing the yield further (when there's positive yield), with the same set of selections, would be the staking strategy. I have yet to come up with a good strategy so level stakes seems the most straightforward for me right now. Anyway, good luck to your picks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for reminding us of your hard work at the beginning of the year, Relf Also, your comments about "level stakes" are supported by comparing the current yield on the various staking systems.... level stakes are currently producing 23.5% yield :loon (more or less the same as 1% bank stakes), whereas my own loss-recovery staking system is lagging behind at 20.6% yield :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I would say all systems are good. Like what everyone has said, this season's home win % has been higher than expected, so it might not be true that level stakes are the best way to go. I wouldn't rule out your loss recovery system to come out tops perhaps in May, or after another season or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites As I wrote before, the data is mainly those odds and results you can find on the FD webseite. That is around 10 years worth with 5,000+ matches a year. Anyone with some knowledge in Excel makros can merge all those different data sheets into one master sheet within 30 minutes. It's average odds. And of course it cannot be restricted to EPL and Serie A. You would need like 20 seasons just to get 12,000 matches in those two. And then that still all games, not only those with home odds between 1.45 und 1.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites As I wrote before, the data is mainly those odds and results you can find on the FD webseite. That is around 10 years worth with 5,000+ matches a year. Anyone with some knowledge in Excel makros can merge all those different data sheets into one master sheet within 30 minutes. It's average odds. And of course it cannot be restricted to EPL and Serie A. You would need like 20 seasons just to get 12,000 matches in those two. And then that still all games, not only those with home odds between 1.45 und 1.80 I have more leagues than just the onces from FD's website, and I can run it on a league basis as well, so lets see if we can kill off the 1.45 to 1.80 fav strategy right away :) Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using AVERAGE odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 92.93% Payback % draw: 85.66% Payback % away win: 84.44% Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using BEST odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 95.6% Payback % draw: 88.8% Payback % away win: 91.6% This second set of results is canculated from that you have been taking the best possible price from about 12 different bookies on the outcome you backed. So taking the best price only increase your payback % by around 2% when backing the homewins, which is no suprise since the difference on the short odds will be less than on the underdogs. Now, if we do the same run on English premier league for the last 10 seasons: Matches: 730 Payback % homewin: 101.6% Payback % draw: 83.17% Payback % away win: 68.07% Very tiny profit overall, and its really only due to this current abnormal season. Always taking the best odds will increase your payback by around 3% though. Over the last 10 seasons, 5 of them have been losing season with this strategy with the worst beeing the 2003/2004 season with a payback % of just 86.78%. So looking at history, this strategy will only create a profit about every 2nd season in the premier league. The Serie A is alot worse and is an overall loser over the last 10 seasons, and the sample there is 655 matches fitting the 1.45-1.80. Like kumqut Tree writes, the sample collected over even 10 seasons on this strategy is still pretty small with just 730 matches, and its very likely that it will even out in the bookies favour over the next 250-500 matches. But if you want to bet on something blindly, you're good off by taking the midrange favorites like here, simply because you will have a much higher payback %. The reason could probably pretty straight forward, and its because its the 2nd best teams in these leagues that doesn't get so much attention from the punters, so the odds does not have to be as inflated like teams like Inter, AC Milan, Man Utd, Chelsea and so on does when they're at home, and 1/2 the world will back them like usual. It is however only these 2 leagues where you get close to 100%/break-even by betting them blind. If you try it on other leagues like say the French or German you will lose very close to the bookies overround of 8-10% by just betting them blind. So why should the Premier League and Serie A be different compared to all other european leagues ? Or will they just even out over time, and produce the same 92-93% payback like the average is for all other leagues ? I think so........ So looking at the historic data, you should enjoy the ride while it lasts, since it will not continue to work forever I think - sorry for beeing such a party crasher ! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for all the hard work, Dominator, and for the expert analysis :clap. I am sure you are right in that this season is probably a one-off in terms of producing yields in excess of 20%. However, the analysis I did before publishing the system (admittedly only 5 or 6 seasons) indicated a consistently positive return by combining EPL and IA. Anyway, pay attention to Dominator's warning.... things will probably even out in the bookies favour eventually (as always). :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites By the way, as you can see, most of my odds are taken from Pinnacle.... I have been unable to connect to their website for the past 5 hours.... I hope they haven't followed Portsmouth and gone "bust" :unsure Is anybody else having problems ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites By the way, as you can see, most of my odds are taken from Pinnacle.... I have been unable to connect to their website for the past 5 hours.... I hope they haven't followed Portsmouth and gone "bust" :unsure Is anybody else having problems ? Now, it's OK :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 28, 2010 Share Posted February 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Gosh, this is so hard to believe. Both selections so far (Chelsea and Genoa) have conceded 4 goals this weekend. Let's hope Juventus can salvage something. The law of averages seem to be biting back.. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Perhaps the 4 goal run will continue...... but this time, Juventus 5-4 Palermo :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gatuzo Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Short priced home favourtes is only waist of time and money. My friend here in serbia works for lookal bookie and he defently now statisitc. I alrady now that but he confirs me to that playing on bigger odds is only way to win some money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Short priced home favourtes is only waist of time and money..... Thank you for your positive contribution, Gatuzo :\......... with between 14.7% and 19.1% yield after 85 bets, it certainly hasn't been a "waste of time and money" so far. In the long-term, you are probably right, but let's be optimistic and see how it goes.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soeyaza Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Quote: with between 14.7% and 19.1% yield after 85 bets, it certainly hasn't been a "waste of time and money" so far. In the long-term, you are probably right, but let's be optimistic and see how it goes. I back you!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I back you!!!! Thanks for your encouragement, Soeyaza :ok...... but, unfortunately, the "pessimists" are probably correct. The current yield will probably go down towards the end of the season :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Why do you sound so pessimistic? Have faith! As much as the yield defines the success of a system, I personally wouldn't mind having small amount of profits every week till the end of the season, even if we end up with a lower yield, as long as it's positive. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Why do you sound so pessimistic?..... Can't help it, I'm afraid..... I'm a "my glass is half-empty", rather than a "my glass is half-full" person :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Short priced home favourtes is only waist of time and money. My friend here in serbia works for lookal bookie and he defently now statisitc. I alrady now that but he confirs me to that playing on bigger odds is only way to win some money If thats what he thinks, your friend got alot to learn :D Some might think that because a person works for a bookie he is some sort of sharp gambler. You would be surpised how many clueless guys you can find working at the bookies. It takes close to zero skills working for the bookies these days where they no longer even have to compile their own odds anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted March 6, 2010 Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites WH are nailed on, imho, and a great price. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 6, 2010 Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Gosh, this is getting a little depressing. West Ham are already down by 2 goals in 20 minutes. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted March 6, 2010 Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I had West Ham on the Asian Handicap....sorry, think I cursed you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ....sorry' date=' think I cursed you.[/quote'] Don't worry, Pjhrt.... I'm not superstitious... I don't believe in "curses". More likely it's simply the law of averages fighting back with avengeance :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :clap Palermo left it late to seal the victory. What a relief! Then again, the law of averages seemed to have moved to my system 'Close Games'. :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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