jimjohn Posted October 23, 2010 Share Posted October 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi' date= Jimjohn. Without knowing your expertise in Excel, and exactly what type of backtesting you want to do, it's a bit difficult to offer any constructive advice. I think the first step is to download the relevant .csv file from football-data and delete all irrelevant information, so that you just have the bare bones relevant to the system you are testing (e.g. teams, FT scores, 1x2 odds, over/under odds). Then isolate the information you are after ("if" function is often useful). Where you go from there depends on what you're after. When you arrive at 50 posts, I can send you an example by PM :ok Hi Grex, my excel 'expertise' is very limited but I can manage the IF function with no problems. The suggestion about about only keeping relevent information will help, as it's a bit daunting when looking at the full sheets. I'll have a look before I reach my 50 posts and see what I come up with. This forum has been really helpful to me, I just hope to give a little back in time, thanks and good luck with your selections Grex, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2010 Author Share Posted October 23, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :clap:clap:clap Well done!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Nicely done mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Relf and JTW..... but let's not get carried away. I seem to remember when this thread started in September last year, it started off with an amazing run of "W's". The problem with this type of system is that it only takes a few bad results to put into negative territory, and with these odds, it is difficult to recover. But what the hell, let's celebrate while the going is good.... :cow:nana:cow:nana:cow:nana:cow ......... ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemanc Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 Re: Just a thought ? I followed your threads with interest being an avid fixed odds punter. I have noticed that 7/10 of your winning selections since the start of this seasons campaign have resulted in 1-0,2-0 and 2-1 scorelines (the most common home win results statistically). There may be some mileage in a paper trail to cover games with 3 single bets with the above scores. To date you would be quids in....famous last words ! Anyway as i stated in my title...just a thought ? Keep up the good results.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 4, 2010 Author Share Posted November 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for your comments, Bluemanc (by the way, you're not a Man City supporter by any chance, are you?.... don't worry, I won't hold it against you ;)) To be honest, I think the score-lines are just a statistical "blip". If you look at last season's results, these particular scorelines did not stand out. Having said that, all this weekend's four selections will probably end 1-0 / 2-0 / 2-l.... it's called Sod's Law :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Following your selections with 10% of the Bank staking system ;) Starting with 5pt win Blackburn :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted November 6, 2010 Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Let's hope Blackburn wins! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemanc Posted November 7, 2010 Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Evening Mr G ! Sod`s Law working it`s magic ! 3/4 correct on my correct score paper trail (1-0,2-0,2-1).Keep it up matey.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 7, 2010 Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Ehrm i have a confession :\, i didn't back SAMPDORIA as the limits i've used on Footballbettingbrain are 1.44 [69%] and 1.81 [55%] . There was a 4% difference in the ROI when the % was raised to 56% [1.85] The Bookies i use had Samp @ 1.85 so they were too high for my interpretation of your system. Anyway well done with this weekends selections mate you have certainly found a system with an exceptional strike-rate and i have a profit of 11.82pts on those 3 bets using the % staking plan . Think there could be 2 or 3 selections mid-week :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 7, 2010 Author Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi JTW1.... we had some PM discussion about this, but I haven't had the opportunity yet to test the system on the footballbettingbrain site. Anyway, it was a wise choice to leave out Sampdoria ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 7, 2010 Author Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Evening Mr G ! Sod`s Law working it`s magic ! 3/4 correct on my correct score paper trail (1-0' date='2-0,2-1).Keep it up matey.:cheers[/quote'] Absolutely right, Bluemanc..... but I still feel it is just a "blip"... but who knows !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 7, 2010 Author Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Think there could be 2 or 3 selections mid-week :hope At the moment, there would actually be SIX :loon mid-week selections (odds 1.45 to 1.80 on Bet365)..... but I will wait to see tomorrow evening's odds before posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 8, 2010 Share Posted November 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites The one problem i foresaw with any % bet was what to do when Wednesday's scenario arrived and thats when more than 1 selection kicks off at the same time . On Weds we have 5 [ i include ROMA as they are 1.8 with the bookie i'm using ] selections and i am currently considering a double chance acca [1X] which pays just over 1.9 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 10, 2010 Author Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites On Weds we have 5 [ i include ROMA as they are 1.8 with the bookie i'm using ] selections and i am currently considering a double chance acca [1X] which pays just over 1.9 . JTW..... I hope you decided to go for your acca ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Of course, the Fiorentina game is tomorrow, not tonight :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites JTW..... I hope you decided to go for your acca ;) Oh yes :loon, a pity about Spurs the night before but at least i got most of my loss on that one back ;) Palermo just outside my limit as it stands just now but the other 3 look good :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saplingg Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 22 bets +29% yield Looking very solid, well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 22 bets +29% yield Thanks, Saplingg. Yes it's doing very well at the moment, but it is early days. For example, if both Palermo and Udinese fail to win today, the overall yield will be down to 18%..... I'm an eternal pessimist ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saplingg Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 22 bets +29% yield Thanks' date= Saplingg. Yes it's doing very well at the moment, but it is early days. For example, if both Palermo and Udinese fail to win today, the overall yield will be down to 18%..... I'm an eternal pessimist ;) I suppose you have to to be a good punter :P I notice you are not following your "Staking Plan" that you laid out in your OP. Haven't trawled through the 17 pages so far, sorry if you've answered this qn already, but what made you decide to stop and just go with a $10 unit bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 22 bets +29% yield .... I notice you are not following your "Staking Plan" that you laid out in your OP. Haven't trawled through the 17 pages so far' date=' sorry if you've answered this qn already, but what made you decide to stop and just go with a $10 unit bet?[/quote'] Look at Post no. 285. Last season, I was running 3 different staking plans in parallel. The straight 10 unit stake performed the best... that's why I decided to simplify matters this season :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield 2 Doubles saved my football weekend :dude Your system is simplicity itself [as most succesful one's areand i look forward to the rest of the season following the selections , Cheers Grex :ok btw, read the whole thread for the 1st time the other night , wondering whereabout in Scotland your folks came from ?? obviously their intelligence has rubbed off on you :lol Keep up the good work mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Thanks for the kind words., JTW.... "intelligence" ?...... I'm afraid it's a case of simple systems for simple minds ;) My parents.... Mother from Peebles, Father from Polmont (near Stirling)... both not far from West Calder, I think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Thanks for the kind words.' date= JTW.... "intelligence" ?...... I'm afraid it's a case of simple systems for simple minds ;) My parents.... Mother from Peebles, Father from Polmont (near Stirling)... both not far from West Calder, I think Yeah , Peebles is about 30miles and Polmont is only 15 miles from West Calder. Peebles is a really picturesque nice town with the Tweed flowing through the centre. You can't get more simpler than me mate :rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saplingg Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Congrats on two overwhelming results tonight. Have you ever toyed with the idea of working in an asian handicap into your bets? E.g. home favourite -0.5 or -1.5 depending on the odds etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Congrats on the full house this weekend!!! :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Have you ever toyed with the idea of working in an asian handicap into your bets? E.g. home favourite -0.5 or -1.5 depending on the odds etc. Thanks for the AH suggestion... I will look into this :ok Congrats on the full house this weekend!!! :clap:clap Yes, it was a good weekend..... I resisted the temptation of using Merlin's "FULL HOUSE".... or Muppet's "BOOM, BOOM" ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Absolutely superb results - well done :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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