Grex Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share Posted December 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribe Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I almost forgot to place the "bets", with all the end-of-year and New Year parties. For this weekend this is how it looks: Order of odds is Pinnacle,Betfair,Bwin and Bet365. All as of last Wednesday. Getafe-Valladolid: 1.81,1.86,1.75,1.75 Almeria-Xerez: 1.83,1.85,1.70,1.75 Valencia-Espanol: 1.82,1.50,1.45,1.44 Of the 2.00 odds games (Sporting-Malaga, Santander-Tenerife and Mallorca-Bilbao) the only one I feel comfortable with is Santander-Tenerife. Sporting-Malaga, two low scoring teams could very well be a 0-0 tie. As far as Mallorca-Bilbao, I feel a smart bet would be on Bilbao. They have won their last 3 away games, have achieved 13 points in the last 6 games. The odds in their favor are close to 4.00. Cheers! and a Happy New Year!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I almost forgot to place the "bets", with all the end-of-year and New Year parties. For this weekend this is how it looks: Order of odds is Pinnacle,Betfair,Bwin and Bet365. All as of last Wednesday. Getafe-Valladolid: 1.81,1.86,1.75,1.75 Almeria-Xerez: 1.83,1.85,1.70,1.75 Valencia-Espanol: 1.82,1.50,1.45,1.44 Of the 2.00 odds games (Sporting-Malaga, Santander-Tenerife and Mallorca-Bilbao) the only one I feel comfortable with is Santander-Tenerife. Sporting-Malaga, two low scoring teams could very well be a 0-0 tie. As far as Mallorca-Bilbao, I feel a smart bet would be on Bilbao. They have won their last 3 away games, have achieved 13 points in the last 6 games. The odds in their favor are close to 4.00. Cheers! and a Happy New Year!!! 3 out of 3! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 3 out of 3! :clap Good results, Relf :clap..... can you provide some statistics on yield etc. for the Primera Liga selections ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Oh, it's not me that picked the selections. It's caribe. I'm only the one congratulating! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites You're right...... OMG, too many New Year parties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites hello mate, have you considered running a staking plan on this that increases with the profit? seems your gonna stay fairly consistent and i wouldnt bet against you still having a decent 15% or so yield by the end of season.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, Been existing as a 'guest' in this forum for a few weeks, so this is my first post. Hehe. Personally I think this strategy of yours is pretty good. I'm not sure if you realized, but out of curiosity, I did a bit of calculations (thanks to excel), and I found out that if you were to bet 10.00 on each of the 39 picks (27 win, 12 loss), you would have gotten 63.70 out of 390, which is a 16% yield, and that is much higher than the current 12% that you have. Just thought it would be good to update this 'system' of betting the same amount on each game without the recovery system. Previously after 39 picks, the yield without recovery was 16% and the yield with recovery was 12%. At the moment after 50 picks, the yield without recovery is 14.0% and the yield with recovery is 10.8%. Both are good. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites hello mate' date=' have you considered running a staking plan on this that increases with the profit? seems your gonna stay fairly consistent and i wouldnt bet against you still having a decent 15% or so yield by the end of season....[/quote'] Thanks for the comment.... actually, the staking plan does, to a certain extent, take into account profit.... the target profit is set at 1% of the current bank. I will do some back-testing using a stake (rather than a profit target) of 1% and let you know the outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Just thought it would be good to update this 'system' of betting the same amount on each game without the recovery system. Previously after 39 picks, the yield without recovery was 16% and the yield with recovery was 12%. At the moment after 50 picks, the yield without recovery is 14.0% and the yield with recovery is 10.8%. Both are good. :ok Yes, it does seem that the recovery system is not making a positive contribution to the overall yield.... this is contrary to back-tested performance over previous seasons. I will seriously have to consider adjusting the staking plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I will do some back-testing using a stake (rather than a profit target) of 1% and let you know the outcome. OK..... if I had run the system using level stakes without the loss recovery, the current yield would be 14.0% :loon. Using stakes of 1% of the running bank, the yield would be 13.7% :loon....... both better than the current 10.8% :\. Thanks to Dannkez2407 and Relf for pointing this out...... I'll stick to the staking plan for the time being, but will also quote the yield produced by the alternative staking plans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribe Posted January 5, 2010 Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Last weekend's results were: Part. Pinnacle Betfair Bwin Bet365 Result Bet Won/Loss Net on Day % profit GETAFE - VALLADOLID 1,81 1,86 1,75 1,75 10,00 8,60 RACING - TENERIFE 2,08 2,12 1,90 2,00 10,00 11,20 ALMERÃA - XEREZ 1,83 1,85 1,70 1,73 10,00 8,50 VALENCIA - ESPANYOL 1,81 1,50 1,45 1,44 10,00 5,00 33,3 83,3% So, pretty decent results with what I'm calling The Grex system, because, Grex you certainly own the copyright. 200,00 117,4 58,7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites So, pretty decent results with what I'm calling The Grex system, because, Grex you certainly own the copyright. 200,00 117,4 58,7% OMG...... four rotating balls AND a system named after me.... :$.... thanks Caribe, you have made my day ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 6, 2010 Share Posted January 6, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Not to worry, I bet small and it's within my limits. Just thought that it would be better off spending a small portion of my savings on betting since the bank interests in my country only pays at 0.125% per year. LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Compared with that, 13% to 16% yield is pretty good. As a matter of interest, which country are you from, Relf ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I'm from Singapore, you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Born in England, with Scottish parents and now living in Spain ;). I know football betting is VERY popular in your part of the world, especially asian handicap betting..... I have tried several times to develop systems for AH betting, but they never produce consistent results.... perhaps, one day..... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hmm, that's an interesting life. Would love to go to Europe someday. :) As for AH, I only understand how it works and what the numbers means, but I think it's difficult to bet on it. Some teams prefer to sit back and defend the 1 goal lead, thus not clearing the handicap, while teams with one goal down might go berserk in search for the equaliser and end up conceding another goal, thus failing the handicap. (But it's the unpredictability of the sport that keeps people around the world watching sometimes. :loon) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 8, 2010 Share Posted January 8, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 8, 2010 Author Share Posted January 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for putting all this hard work into the system, Relf. When I was doing my back-testing, I didn't actually split it down seasn-by-season, so your results are very interesting. As you say, apart from this season (as Caribe has pointed out) the Spanish Premira Liga has not performed well. It is also interesting to note that, for any particular season, any under-performance by either the EPL or Serie A is normally compensated for by good performance by the other (eg. 2007/08 and 2008/09). Of course this is only "luck" and probably won't be repeated in the future. But, as you say, both leagues (especially the EPL) are over-performing this season, and it probably won't last.... the eternal pessimist :sad. Regarding the Man City selection for this weekend... yes, I appreciate that it is marginally under the cut-off criterion (1.44 compared with 1.45), but I think that even with "systems" you are permitted a little flexibility ;). Thanks again, Relf.... it's comforting to know that people are taking this seriously.... let's hope the good run continues :hope:hope:hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 8, 2010 Share Posted January 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Haha you are welcome! Since I'm putting money in this, I thought I should get to know this system better. I actually did a little analysis over the 1.44 odds. The minimum % needed to break even is 1/1.44 = 69.4%. EPL: 2005/06: 4/4 (100%) 2006/07: 3/5 (60%) 2007/08: 7/8 (88%) 2008/09: 5/7 (71%) 2009/10: 5/9 (56%) Overall: 24/33 (73%) - which gives a 4.7% yield Serie A: 2005/06: 7/8 (88%) 2006/07: 7/8 (88%) 2007/08: 3/3 (100%) 2008/09: 5/8 (63%) 2009/10: 4/5 (80%) Overall: 26/32 (81%) - which gives a 17% yield As I'm only able to bet with the local bookmakers (which offer horrendous odds :@), I would choose to stick with 1.44 in Serie A and not in EPL. (And it's partly because I'm a Blackburn fan. Hehehe!) Once again, I'm assuming that the statistics in the football data site are accurate, and my calculations have no mistakes. *Edit: 3 EPL matches postponed, including Fulham vs Portsmouth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribe Posted January 8, 2010 Share Posted January 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This weekend we have: Sevilla-Racing 1.50 Villarreal-Almeria 1.45 Deportivo-Osasuna 1.80 These are the bwin odds. I'm not too confident this time, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit only one of the 3 games. I have not had a good internet connection the last few days and I'm going on a long trip starting Sunday, but I expect to be able to post normally again a week form today. Best wishes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 8, 2010 Author Share Posted January 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good luck with your Liga selections, Caribe.... and have a safe journey, wherever you are going... keep away from the snow ! Interesting to note from Relf's table above that the yield from the Spanish league has progressively improved over the past few seasons... let's hope the improvement continues :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 4 out of 4 for Serie A! Awesome weekend! Unbelievably, it's STILL 100% strike rate for me - 6 out of 6 (incl. Lazio and Milan a few ago). Good luck on your Man City bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ....... Good luck on your Man City bet! Definitely very unsure about this selection, having seen the absentees from Man City..... no Wright-Phillips, Ireland, Lescott, Johnson, Bridge, Toure, Adebayor :unsure. But unfortunately, the system does not take into account injuries etc., so I will have to stick with it :hope. Strange that the odds on City have now actually dropped from 1.44 to 1.40 on Bet365 (perhaps because of the "Vieira Factor" ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 11, 2010 Author Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ........ Strange that the odds on City have now actually dropped from 1.44 to 1.40 on Bet365 (perhaps because of the "Vieira Factor" ;)) Perhaps it really was the "Vieira Factor"..... just found out that he's not playing tonight and the odds on City have now shot up to 1.53 on Bet365 and, on Pinnacle, the game is "offline" :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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