Grex Posted January 11, 2010 Author Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Pinnacle is now back "on line" and offering odds of 1.58 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcus1874 Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Fantastic run :clap...getting just rewards for all the hard work being put into this system. Almost seems unfair for us to make money from it :$. I've only just had a proper look at the thread just now, so I'll be taking your selections into account when placing at the weekend. Well done, and good luck for the future of this system :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Marcus, for your kind words. I repeat myself by saying that this success rate can not continue..... but let's bask in the glory whilst it does :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ...with Man City trouncing Blackburn (comiserations to Relf)..... Blackburn weren't expected to get any points anyway. Hope they put in a credible performance in the league cup semis against Aston Villa in the midweek. Having taken a look at the selections this week, I'm starting to catch the pessimist virus. :lol Would need at least 3 out of 5 for profit - not sure if Serie A would be cooperative once again. Since I'm on the no loss recovery system, I'm considering skipping/putting smaller bets this round, with the assumption that the run might stop here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I tend to agree with you, Relf...... for the sake of "proofing" the system, we have to stick to the staking strategy on paper. But when it comes to putting in hard cash, sometimes you have to follow your gut feeling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites By the way, the reason that Sampdoria qualify at odds of 1.85 (when the system's cut-off is 1.80) is that the games are assessed on Bet365 published odds..... and Bet365 are offering exactly 1.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcus1874 Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks' date= Marcus, for your kind words. I repeat myself by saying that this success rate can not continue..... but let's bask in the glory whilst it does :dude Ahh, of course no system can work for ever...but like you said, when things are going your way, take advantage of the situation. There's probably a more poetic/philosophical way to say that but hey :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ..... There's probably a more poetic/philosophical way to say that but hey :lol. .... not to worry, Marcus..... probably not many poets or philosophers visit this forum anyway :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howyapat Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites i like your system grex.....good work...as you say your not going to get rich quick using it....but it turns a reasonable profit.....better than a banks interest rate thats for sure........its very tempting to start trying to put your selections in accas etc. but as we all know that where it goes pear shaped and the bookies clean up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites You're not going to get rich quick with any system on this Forum.... but a yield of around 20% is better than most. Interesting comment on accumulators...... a quick check reveals that if you had put a full accumulator bet on each round, the yield, before last weekend, would have been 62% :loon. Last weekend's 5-fold success would have boosted the yield to 100% :loon:loon:loon. The quoted odds are mainly from Pinnacle..... unfortunately, this company does not do "accas"...... the yield using Bet365 odds would have been somewhat less. Of course, "accas" are notoriously risky and unpredictable.... but a yield of 100% can not be sniffed at :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ..... unfortunately' date= Pinnacle does not do "accas"...... Just checked, and Pinnacle does do accumulators, but I think you are restricted to a single league, for example, it is not possible to do an acca with 2 selections from the EPL and 3 from the Italy Serie A. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Well, I'm not surprised by the high yield from accumulators given the relatively high strike rate of your selections. No disrespect to your system, but I think luck played a major role this season. Compared with the back-testing data, EPL, Serie A and Primera are ALL putting in their best yields in 5 years! Not sure if it's just coincidence or there's something to do with the teams in the respective leagues this season. My point is, (despite not doing any back-testing), I don't think it's really 'safe' to bet on accumulators with this system in the long run. But of course, I might be wrong. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites No disrespect to your system' date=' but I think luck played a major role this season.........[/quote'] Couldn't agree with you more :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 13, 2010 Author Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Sorry' date= but I have to post next weekend's selections early....... anyway, now that thousands are following the "system", the odds will probably go down :rollin Interestingly, the odds have generally shortened with Pinnacle..... 11/01/201013/01/2010Aston Villa1.561.54Cagliari1.791.79Fiorentina1.541.49Roma1.741.69Sampdoria1.851.79 It looks as though it pays to bet early :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribe Posted January 13, 2010 Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good luck with your Liga selections, Caribe.... and have a safe journey, wherever you are going... keep away from the snow ! Interesting to note from Relf's table above that the yield from the Spanish league has progressively improved over the past few seasons... let's hope the improvement continues :ok Right Grex, I just got away from the snow on Monday morning, after spending Sunday in Madrid under the worst snowstorm I have ever seen there...and I lived in Madrid for about 15 years, never seen anything like it. I was right to be leery of last weekend's games, the only correct forecast was that I would probably have only one right out of the three. I have no idea yet of this coming weekend's games. I hope to have it by Friday. Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites After much consideration, I have decided to follow the 5 picks as well (with the same amount of bet). I prefer to ignore the run and see the selections as memory-less and independent of the previous run. Out of the 5, Fiorentina worries me the most as they had to comeback from a goal down to win 2-1 last week, and they had a midweek cup match which they again had to comeback from a goal down to win 3-2. Another slight concern would be that Aston Villa had the midweek match with Blackburn in the first leg of Carling Cup Semis, and the second leg is this coming Wednesday. Hope they won't rest too many of their players. Nothing weird jumps out from the other 3 teams - and I'm expecting (and hoping) at least 3 out of 5 would make it this weekend! :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribe Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This is what we have for this weekend in the Priimera Division, all based on bwin odds: Zaragoza-Xeez 1.58 Atletico Madrid-Sporting 1.55 Racing-Valladolid 1.95 I'm happy with these selections. All seem to me to be clear home team winners, even Racing who are doing very well after they replaced their manager. There is another I wouldn't touch: Almeria-Tenerife 1.90, this is a very risky one. After last week's disaster, there is still a 51% overall profit since I started this Spanish version of the Grex system. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites After much consideration, I have decided to follow the 5 picks as well (with the same amount of bet). I prefer to ignore the run and see the selections as memory-less and independent of the previous run. Out of the 5, Fiorentina worries me the most as they had to comeback from a goal down to win 2-1 last week, and they had a midweek cup match which they again had to comeback from a goal down to win 3-2. Another slight concern would be that Aston Villa had the midweek match with Blackburn in the first leg of Carling Cup Semis, and the second leg is this coming Wednesday. Hope they won't rest too many of their players. Nothing weird jumps out from the other 3 teams - and I'm expecting (and hoping) at least 3 out of 5 would make it this weekend! :hope:hope:hope Turns out that my initial worries for Aston Villa and Fiorentina weren't unfounded. :sad Suffered losses for the first time in 3 rounds, but my current yield since I'm started betting still stands at a healthy 12.7%. Let's hope next round will be a better one. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenweegie Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites HI Grex Im wondering how far in advance you list stats for upcoming games Looks like a good system from what i can see Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for dropping in, Greenweegie. It's not a very complicated system, so you don't really have to wait for my posts. Just identify all EPL or IA games on Bet365 with home team odds of between 1.45 and 1.80.... find the best odds on the market (I only compare with Pinnacle).... and there you are :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 20, 2010 Author Share Posted January 20, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I did a quick check on the statistics for Home wins in the EPL and Serie A. For the EPL, the home wins are currently running at over 50%, whereas the average for the previous 10 seasons was only 47%. The figures for Serie A are even more dramatic..... the current home wins are 51%, with the previous 10 seasons averaging 46.3% :loon This statistical abnormality obviously benefits any Home Win system..... let's hope the abnormality continues ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 21, 2010 Author Share Posted January 21, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 22, 2010 Share Posted January 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I'm going for Genoa as well. Genoa looked good at home and in the reverse fixture, they won 1-0 at Atalanta. As for Atalanta, a run of 1 win in 10 matches cost their manager's job and so far the new manager's record is 3-0 win at home against Lazio and 2-2 away against Bologna. It's an improvement but I believe Genoa will be too much for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 22, 2010 Author Share Posted January 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Relf, for your analytical approach to the selections.... I'm afraid I'm simply a "number-cruncher" and don't get involved in any subjective analysis.... your input is much appreciated :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 22, 2010 Share Posted January 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I do my best. I'm just trying to see if it would be better if I could combine my personal analysis and this system. This might mean less matches to bet on, and also the potential of missing winning matches, but the aim is to see if I could further increase the yield and strike rate. (After all, merely putting equal stakes might not be profitable always - as can be seen from the back-testing of previous seasons.) Shall start this weekend, and do this for the rest of the season (unless the analysis turns out to be real bad after a month). :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 24, 2010 Share Posted January 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Woohoo! Comfortable win for Genoa! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 24, 2010 Author Share Posted January 24, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 24, 2010 Author Share Posted January 24, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Let's see how much sense my comments would make. Bolton vs Burnley Bolton's home record - 2 wins from 11 matches. Not good. Burnley's away record - 10 losses from 11 matches. Worse. This could well be a lottery, but I think Bolton will edge out between the clash of the new managers. Concern: Nope. Tottenham vs Fulham Tottenham has only dropped points against 4 teams at home so far, namely Man Utd, Stoke (?), Wolves (?), Hull (?). They seem to be unable to break down poorer teams. I don't think Fulham is considered a poor team, so Tottenham should win this one. (Bizarre logic. :P) Concern: Nope. Everton vs Sunderland Sunderland's away form stands at 10-match without a win (ever since the opening day win over.. Bolton :eek). Chelsea hit 7 past them, and bottom-of-the-table Portsmouth kicked them out in the FA Cup. I'm sure Steve Bruce would want to halt Sunderland's woeful run. Everton might have improved recently, but I'm unsure if they could win this game. Concern: Slight Still, I'll be going for all 3 matches - still considering how much to stake (more than usual, usual, or less than usual). Good luck! :hope Well, I might be biased here, but I feel the odds of Blackburn to win Wigan seems to offer more value. Blackburn have a decent home record, and Wigan has conceded the 2nd most goals away from home. A plus point would be that Blackburn had the weekend to recharge because they didn't have FA Cup to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for your input, Relf ....... I don't think Fulham is considered a poor team' date=' so Tottenham should win this one.[/quote'] I love it :loon..... and good luck to Blackburn :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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