Favourite Backing System; ROI 107,5% Net Profit: +92.3 pts

[palaceman]

Re: Favourite Backing System I just wonder if that's a sensible strategy, Zico. I'm not sure that you should be chasing losses in this way. You need to think about the possibility that you're throwing good money after bad.

[Otter4]

Re: Favourite Backing System I know that your thinking is that the teams are good and will eventually win a game. If you are going to chase the losses - would it make more sense to chase the losses on one of your more reliable selections like Barcelona? I know the odds won't be as good, but at this stage al your after is a win! Just an idea

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System

I know that your thinking is that the teams are good and will eventually win a game. If you are going to chase the losses - would it make more sense to chase the losses on one of your more reliable selections like Barcelona? I know the odds won't be as good, but at this stage al your after is a win! Just an idea

That is quite a good idea which I did not even consider at all. Both Fenerbahce and Galatasaray are underperforming after good starts, it might be really not that bad to get stakes back with Barcelona f.e. I will have for sure need to have a close look at the selections this weekend. As I said I will review the whole thread and what I did notice so far is that when any of the favorites does lose for example away from home then they have very short odds at home. So if we want our 5 pts back then we need to back about 40-50 pts and if they draw or lose we get in high money levels. That does for sure need an improvement, but I will think about this when we have our stakes back and see our initial profit from this lately quite risky system :ok

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System 16. Week Bayern: 390 pts @1.48 Current Bank: 905.10 pts Profit/Loss: -94.90 pts Total stakes which we need to get back: 187 pts Alright due to some crazy circumstances in Fenerbahce and Galatasaray I cannot trust them to get the stake back. Therefore I decided Bayern to do this. :drums:hope

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System

16. Week Bayern: 390 pts @1.48 :clap Current Bank: 905.10 pts Profit/Loss: -94.90 pts Total stakes which we need to get back: 187 pts Alright due to some crazy circumstances in Fenerbahce and Galatasaray I cannot trust them to get the stake back. Therefore I decided Bayern to do this. :drums:hope

A solid 1:5 away win from Bayern gets our stakes back. Fenerbahce and Galatasaray both won with 3:2 score, both match were very very hard wins. Anyway back to the profit. Current Bank: 1092.3 pts Profit/Loss: +92.3 pts I will now have a review on this thread in next weeks and come back after winter break with adjusted System. :ok

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System (+92.3 pts) Alright just went trough the thread. Total staked: 1232.5 Returned: 1324.8 Net balance: +92.3 pts ROI*: 107,48% *Return of Investment. Not the worst stats, but we need to improve this one :dude

[Millwall2010]

Re: Favourite Backing System (+92.3 pts)

Alright just went trough the thread. Total staked: 1232.5 Returned: 1324.8 Net balance: +92.3 pts ROI*: 107,48% *Return of Investment. Not the worst stats, but we need to improve this one :dude

I would quit while your ahead if I were you. It only takes one bad run and your ******. Honestly, is it worth risking such high stakes for what is quite a small profit. Would you do this on roulette? Its the same strategy. Don't wanna sound patronising but someone here needs to tell you

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System (+92.3 pts)

I would quit while your ahead if I were you. It only takes one bad run and your ******. Honestly' date=' is it worth risking such high stakes for what is quite a small profit. Would you do this on roulette? Its the same strategy. Don't wanna sound patronising but someone here needs to tell you[/quote'] The highest stake so far was 390 pts. That is less than half of the initial bank. The second highest stake was 115 pts. The bank itself is 1000 pts and we start backing with 5 pts which is only 0,5% of our starting bank. I would agree with you when you would criticise the system when staking like 50 pts on each match - but at this low stakes it is very difficult for us to reach a stake which will kill the bank. As for your comparison to roulette. No I would not use this system in roulette - because there you can easily have a run of 15+ red/black runs which kill you easily which won't be the fact with these teams. Additionally, as in the case of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray we can simply skip those team when they have a bad run, many injuries and other problems. Later on, we can come back to them when they are in form again. This would be a fine tuning of the system, to regard team news form, injuries, H2H stats for our favourites to even minimize possible losers more. Again, I could have wrote starting bank 500 pts and that would be really enough so far and stats would read like this then: Starting Bank: 500 pts Profit: +92.3 Net Balance: 592.3 pts You see we even had double of this bank to cover the loss. I am still confident that this would work until end of season, the only problem is that odds are going down each weak and that causes problems when we want to get the stakes back (higher stakes needed due to lower odds and when we have another loss we face great problems). Will review this during my holidays anyway, might go on with this - but also possible to give this some major changes such as new selections or even change of staking and type of bets (could imagine to go for under/over with some teams for example). Thanks for your reply anyway, shows me that people are having a look at this and I always love to show people that they are too often thinking black/white only :ok

[palaceman]

Re: Favourite Backing System; ROI 107,5% Net Profit: +92.3 pts Zico - I'm not sure if you are using real money or just paper-trailing this. If you are just paper-trailing, then it doesn't matter. But if you are using real money I would suggest you take the advice that Millwall2010 gave you, and quit whilst you are ahead. You are only ahead because you took increasing risks, ultimately putting 20% of your remaining bank on one selection in the hope of recouping your money. That is no way to operate. I don't know if anyone else is following your selections with real money, but I rather doubt anyone else would have followed you on that one to the same extent. Millwall was trying to be constructive and help you. If you are using real money, I would give a lot of thought to what he said. Incidentally, I'm not sure what you mean by "Return On Investment 107.48%" With the greatest respect, that is a nonsense figure whatever it is supposed to mean. Your yield - which is the figure you should be quoting - is 7.48%

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System; ROI 107,5% Net Profit: +92.3 pts

Incidentally' date=' I'm not sure what you mean by "Return On Investment 107.48%" With the greatest respect, that is a nonsense figure whatever it is supposed to mean. Your yield - which is the figure you should be quoting - is 7.48%[/quote'] Total staked: 1232.5 (100%) Returned: 1324.8 (107.48% - which is Return On Investment;)) Yield: 7.48% :ok I think I did mention before that this is working with real money and the Bayern München pick was also based on my weekly Bundesliga analyses - that was a clear away win by stats, form, quality of the team and team news. ;) Of course I see the problems with this system and I did mention them in the post before. I am pretty sure that I also wrote that we might see some major changes with this because I saw the problems which this system include. Best regards and thanks for your input, 1907zico

[1907zico]

Re: Favourite Backing System; ROI 107,5% Net Profit: +92.3 pts Alright, decided to stop this system at this point. Put the money in pocket and move on with something new. Thanks for the comments and discussion. Best regards and happy new to everyone. 1907zico