cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System i was considering Chelsea but i decided not to put them for their bad results against "big 4" . this year its gettting even more tough but i believe bad results for lfc are gone and some great incoming. Also. I changed PSV for Juventus as this seem reasonable to me. Dutch league seems to be more difficult to predict6 this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Burrito Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System hi mate i hope you can understand my terrible english. can i ask? if you betted just "over" for some teams you could take more points better than direct bet. for example galatasaray played 5 match in tsl and these matches has finished 4 time over, once time under. also galatasaray played 2 more match out of tsl , these matches finished 1 time over 1 time under. note: under matches has finished 1-1 and 0-2 (so near to over) so if you betted just over you could lose just 2 times and its mean -10 points. but other won 5 matches odds more good than your direct odds. (over odds was around 1.70 but direct win more little.) i asked because i wanna try with under or over. and i can find a few teams like galatasaray. if you couldn't understand i can write turkish :) :) good luck. with respect :) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System This idea is good i know very well what you talk about. Thnks 4 usefull post. I finally made my mind . I 'll play with 6 teams as follows: Liverpool Celtic PSV Juventus Galatasaray Barcelona / Real Madrid ( i 'll use only one of them 4 system purpose, however they might be swop during the season ) And will make the bets each time like this : ( try to keep it simple as possible but its combinating more systems & make brand new. I am in stage when finding the final "outlook" 4 something, i might stick with 4 a season. I am goigng to backing up the bets, however system is only starting and its still in "testing" stage ) The budget its 500 and each stake is 5. Liverpool - 5 pts, over 2.5 or win in the match ( depens on price -for example against man utd is better to play straight win which give price aprox. 3.0 instead low price on +2.5goals. But on other hand against Wigan its better play 2.5+goals as this comes with a better price than "just" underpriced win on home LFC ) Celtic -5 pts winnig each week home / away ( i know the talks about matches beeing corrupted arent't positive but will watch it closely !) Juventus - 5 pts winning each week home /away, in particular situation i might go 4 +2.5 on home matches against low priced underdogs -only the time will show) Barcelona/ Real - winning each week or +2.5 (same rule as 4 Liverpool , probably price make the final decision, i might stick with away winning & +2.5 against low price at home ) PSV - winning each week or +2.5 home or -2.5 away / against - the price will make final word) Galatasaray - here i probably stick with betting +2.5 goals on home field against "low price" opposition (as it comes better than price 1.16 etc), but i'll tryng a good luck with a win on away matches (hope the price 'll be higher - its 1.22 on tommorow and yet they play away ) That should be all 4 now about the basic Rules of my sytem. I might make few simple changes but not much. I seeking bit better prices to work with when similar risks taken. Also i wanna keep it simple but flexible, but stick with the rules, so after the new year it might show the potential and first long -term results to count with. ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System anyway hi mate sorry i nearly forgot to great you. btw Baros seems promising for long term in Galatasaray, did i mention he was my neigborough before he went Liverpool ) ? lol. finally he made it and his goals will bring us some succes ( i know it ). I trust in myself but you better trust to yourselves, but in every case hope to leave a records here so everybody can see this system in real progress. ) i also stick with the other two systems here / head to head predicting & -2.5 as they might be profitable in long term. good luck to everybody involved ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System hi cypotypo. i would suggest that whenever the big four play against each other, or any of the teams that you were backing play against each other, do not bet on the match. although the odds may be a little higher than usual since these matches are always more unpredictable, i would rather skip betting on these matches but rather win some lesser risk money. in liverpool i didnt like baros much but i would loved to see crouch and baros play together. but happy to see ex-liverpool players like baros playing so well in their leagues now. to my previous question, since betfair has no bet limit, and they won't limit the bets, why don't i bet a larger bet to earn more money? thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System Hi Neomosquito. Think is just up to you with what amount you start, i found 5 optimal in case not all goes such a "clearly" as it should / it seem to be optimal - not too much not too low . However if this become profitable until end of 2009, i am sure the stakes will around 10 instead 5 - in my case. I want to test&make something more steady first and if i count with probability it should works well. But until i dont see real numbers, real results, 5 should be enough for the risks taken. One think about larger bet on low prices : no good. After your low price loose and you see other big one winning, you ask : why did i lost 100 on 1.22 if i could have 183 on 1.83 ? Unfortunatelly its more difficult to bet one low ("sure") price for big money than stick into some system where risks are not as high, but opportunities (prices) bigger / i mean if you have just 1 shot and 100 opportunities, why choose only 1 and loose everything, if you can play 10, and have most of wager back 4 sure and sometimes winning, sometimes not .. but NEVER loosing. this is makes the difference in my eyes, and every system should be understood as somethin " how to NEVER loose" instead of something " how to always win" as it not possible always winning but it is possible to NEVER loosing again . I had lot of winning days and lot of loosing too, unfortunatelly, even if i got many good results, in total i crashed on "combi" . This is why i gonn stick in the single bets system for a while. but my account on b365 was easily over 1000 in placed best at afternoon, even if i start with 60 at morning,with few in the profit always/. however, my passion into playing everything possible without even knowing the sides spoiled it again, so i said STOP, and i got here to build some working system, which give me the chance to win AND most important, brings me the chance that i never loose again. I am expecting to improve here a lot, but what i starts is in my head and i should find some system to stick with ages ago, well maybe finally now is the time as i see that random staking dont makes profits anymore. I started at thursday with 60 on bet 365. by the ev i was on 170 + if sevilla match got over 2.5 goals i was on 370 very next day. Althrough, i kept 170 with some unlucky feelings as Sevilla got just 2 and very next day i lost again 170 during the day session by putting live in play. This made me start whatever more systematic and thanks everybody here for a good tips, i hope mine can be usefull too, but only time will show. btw I bet on LFC beats aston vila 150 eur...last season. They got 5:0. how ever i lost next time when i put them twice against CHelsea in Champions League semifinal ... but i made nice money by placing them against United twice, for some 30 i got around 50 clear profit. I mean especially this matches are the ones i wanna play here becose Liverpool is home anywhere and if they had a bit more luck against Stoke twice (o : O) and against few others, the title would be home already.. the team is healthy and if Torres and Gerrard keeps fit, its gonna be the season mate.. and the prices are still juicy too. trust me i am aroud them and they not going to crack more than 3x in row ( i am playing european cups too in the system ) The team got better every year in the league, and i expected that they get beat by Tottenham as they were not as much favorites as many pple say ...how ever they are hot favorites to get better than they got last season and i am not saying this as a LFC fan. Which would be the 1st place in the league. With such Gerrard, Johnson or Torres in front i can imagine it happens this year/ they going to win most of the matches anyway. However there might be the week when i simply swop them - if i'll feel that they not play theyre best - i got already "substitute teams" and some of them seems even better than the original ones i putted here... for example Dynamo Kyev got 26 wins and only 4 d/l results in last season, which makes them hot favorites to my system too . I made a new thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/flexible-betting-football-system-winning-aces-2-5-goals-90488/ so every opiniums and other is welcome, it might be a wild ride but we give it a try and see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System to my previous question, since betfair has no bet limit, and they won't limit the bets, why don't i bet a larger bet to earn more money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System btw Baros in Live was a mistake by mr Houlier - hes never been borned 4 English footie, both of them. but his goals in Turkey and whole Galatasaray made some goood results already, team works well. I think there's Kewell,. Ex Liverpool as well they probably know about each other which makes them even better this year. they might go high in Europe too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 20, 2009 Author Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System to cypotype and zico. im trying out both man utd and chelsea in the epl. don't want to risk my money on liverpool as they are very inconsistent although i'm a liverpool fan myself. as in the spanish liga, im goin with both real madrid and barcelona. in the italian seria a, im only going with inter milan. i'm going with only 5 teams in three leagues because these are the leagues i'm more familiar with. zico, since you reside in germany, are you more aware and familiar with the german league? could someone please enlighten me cause im a ittle dumb? since betfair has no limit, why cant someone try larger bets since they wont limit your bets? Yeah I am "quite" familiar with Bundesliga. Well I think betting 5 pts with a backup of 1000 pts is a must. Just imagine you have not one, but two bad runs at the same time and your doomed. So if you do the same as I do with real money, you would have a profit at around 50€ with a starting bank of 1000€. This wont kill any booker :lol Of course you can set first bet higher than 5 pts, but you have to see if its worth the risk - at the end a whole season can be for nothing with two bad runs.. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 20, 2009 Author Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System The idea of over/unders is not bad as well, but I think it is easier to predict strong teams whom I expect to win regulary than predicting teams who will play over or under the whole season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System thank you guys so much for clearing my doubts and your patience to do so even though i'm just a 17year old. the members in other forums just ignore me cause i'm just a kid. i think this will be the only forum i'll go to. anyway, does anyone believe that sports arbitrage work? will the bookmakers restrict our bets? wolverhampton wanderers are playing fulham on sunday 20th september 2009. based on www.odds-comparison.co.uk, betchronicle offers 3.65 wolverhampton win at half time, skybet offers 2.2 draw at half-time, and betdaq offers 3.9 fulham win at full time. if i bet $60.27 at betchronicle, $100 at skybet, and $56.10 at betdaq, i would be taking away $3.32 no matter the results. this is a 1.53% return on investment. although the ROI is small, but it is no risk. or is there? please comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System 1970 zico : i think its easier but this one is more paid and also usefull with in few specific situations, especiually on home matches. anyway i wont do too much overs 2.5, but in case that f.e. Galatasaray play home with price 1.16, than i feel its time to try it over 2.5 as statistic dont lie and prices are better. maybe if i miss one over, next time will be more carefull, but till than i go 4 it. . Neo : well there is possibility to make profits the way you state, but than you will miss the drive of all football betting. I 'd say most of the people betting for fun and on 2nd place 4 the money, but you can try it and you;ll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System thank you guys so much for clearing my doubts and your patience to do so even though i'm just a 17year old. the members in other forums just ignore me cause i'm just a kid. i think this will be the only forum i'll go to. anyway, does anyone believe that sports arbitrage work? will the bookmakers restrict our bets? wolverhampton wanderers are playing fulham on sunday 20th september 2009. based on www.odds-comparison.co.uk, betchronicle offers 3.65 wolverhampton win at half time, skybet offers 2.2 draw at half-time, and betdaq offers 3.9 fulham win at full time. if i bet $60.27 at betchronicle, $100 at skybet, and $56.10 at betdaq, i would be taking away $3.32 no matter the results. this is a 1.53% return on investment. although the ROI is small, but it is no risk. or is there? please comment. What if Fulham are winning at half time and its Wolves win or draw full time? Or did you mean 3.9 @ half time for Fulham? Anyway, yes its possible to make money but it relies on having a big bank balance and getting the bets on at the same time (odds can change at anytime). Also if a big bet (£20,000) is placed at a bookmakers on a single bet, it will usually change the odds thereafter. Its risk free only in theory. In reality you can take big hits if you get one thing wrong. This is my opinion, others may disagree!:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System oh so sorry gooner steve. i made a typo mistake. it should be half time instead of full time. sorry. mistake on my part. to your part on saying that odds change, lets say i bet $100 when the odds were 1.5, but at full time the odds became 2.0, assuming i won the bet, i thought i would win $50. correct me if i'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System anyway, do the online bookies charge any commission? or the commission are already internalized into the odds already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System If you can keep getting these prices right before match start and put max 1000euro to each, you could get away with it. at least until they find you doing this in long term. I think once you settle your bet, your price will stay no matter if they change it or not. But every bookies can get different rules To your other question, some do some not. 4 ex. bet 365 dont charge anythin' and betandwin will take 1 % of every stake you make Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System Thats not what I meant about price changing. If you put Wolves to win at one bookie @3.65 (at 2.30pm), the draw at another bookie @ 2.2 (at 2.31pm) and go to the last bookie for Fulham @3.9 (at 2.32pm) but ..... the price has changened in the last 2 mins or your internet goes down and the price changes or someone else has put that £20,000 bet on already and the odds have changed in the last 2mins or there site goes down and the price changes or there is a power cut and by the time you get to a pc the price has changed or there is a lag and when you "confirm bet" it takes ages and then comes back the "odds have changed" (this happens alot for horse racing and has happened to me for sports bets (football)). or any other reasons. Bit extreme but you get the point! btw Neo your age don't matter if you have something to say then say it. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System not into kinda 3 way betting anyway, only think that would be the way how to make few buck 4 sure. Let say if you'd have it prepared, opened 3 sites in the same time few hours before the match start, and the prices are what you want them to be, you have solid chance that any of what you wrote does not suprise you and you put it right. but if yes, dont complain against me lol but if you play with 1000 , your target should be to raise it at least 10 % , or am i wrong ? in better case 110 %, in better days . dunno if 1 percent is worthy of trying anyway. with 100 it gives you 1 euro - if you can repeat this 10 times a day, you make 10 bucks.. it isn't worthy, most of the times. but if you can make it, you should let us know how did you get on. You definitely gonna get your money back and with right prices get winnings too. Just wondering how many of this courious situations you will be able to find in a day ; ) If you will do it with big money, it could be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System not into kinda 3 way betting anyway, only think that would be the way how to make few buck 4 sure. Let say if you'd have it prepared, opened 3 sites in the same time few hours before the match start, and the prices are what you want them to be, you have solid chance that any of what you wrote does not suprise you and you put it right. but if yes, dont complain against me lol but if you play with 1000 , your target should be to raise it at least 10 % , or am i wrong ? in better case 110 %, in better days . dunno if 1 percent is worthy of trying anyway. with 100 it gives you 1 euro - if you can repeat this 10 times a day, you make 10 bucks.. it isn't worthy Exactly, using so many variables to make 1-3% profit. Not my idea of fun :@ It can be done but its not for me! :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System The joy is missing, indeed. I can imagine doing this when i secure myself on few thousands and by putting 500 on each can make cca 20-30 on 1 market. But even then i find more funny go get a 9 to 5 job more that doing this lol. But in a meantime it might be consider / just make sure you write all the good prices here cose i cant be bowed by doing this lol - even than its too much hussle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System anyway' date=' do the online bookies charge any commission? or the commission are already internalized into the odds already?[/quote'] Online bookies charge no commission, but profit from the requirement to stake more than what is won in return if you back all possible outcomes with that same bookie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System hi cypotypo. good to hear that someone approved of this somewhat. actually its not quite a hassle to find these prices. you just need to go to www.odds-comparison.co.uk and go to the list of football matches. at the end, there is a column which gives some percentage. look for those that are below 100%. then go to google and search for a scalpulator, key in the odds and press enter. there they will tell you how much to bet. it saves me all the trouble of me using the algorithms to deduce the bets. hahas. thanks alot everyone for commenting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System and it is also possible to bet all games instead of solely football only. this way the profits earned will be much quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System Guys I dont want to stop your discussion, but maybe discuss all this in a new thread since it has not that much to do with this system? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System hahas. yea sure. just started a new thread. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/sure-win-using-sports-arbitrage-90531/#post1482172 thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System hahas. yea sure. just started a new thread. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/sure-win-using-sports-arbitrage-90531/#post1482172 thanks! Your welcome, thanks for the effort to put up a new thread :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System this looks good - keep up the good work zico! have been a sucker for martingale in the past but have stopped myself after wiping out a bankroll last summer! This is tempting me again though! LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System 6. Week: Barcelona: +1.8 pts Benfica:+2.5 pts Bayern: +1.1 pts Galatasaray: +1.1 pts Fenerbahce: +1.55 pts Current Bank: 1054.6 pts Profit/Loss: +54.6 pts Another "green week" for our system :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System 7. Week (Midweek): Barcelona: +1.65 pts Benfica: NA Bayern: NA Galatasaray: NA Fenerbahce: NA 7. Week (Weekend): Barcelona: 5 pts @1.4 Benfica: 5 pts @1.28 Bayern: 5 pts @2.5 Galatasaray: 5 pts @1.35 Fenerbahce: 5 pts @1.59 Current Bank: 1056.25 pts Profit/Loss: +56.25 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Favourite Backing System 7. Week (Midweek): Barcelona: +1.65 pts Benfica: NA Bayern: NA Galatasaray: NA Fenerbahce: NA 7. Week (Weekend): Barcelona: 5 pts @1.4 Benfica: 5 pts @1.28 Bayern: 5 pts @2.5 Galatasaray: 5 pts @1.35 Fenerbahce: 5 pts @1.59 Current Bank: 1056.25 pts Profit/Loss: +56.25 pts 7. Week (Midweek): Barcelona: +1.65 pts Benfica: NA Bayern: NA Galatasaray: NA Fenerbahce: NA 7. Week (Weekend): Barcelona: +2 pts Benfica:+1.4 pts Bayern: -5 pts Galatasaray: -5 pts Fenerbahce: +2.95 pts Current Bank: 1052.15 pts Profit/Loss: +52.15 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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