fintron Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 We've got a thread for the Derby, but not yet for the Oaks, which is this Friday at Epsom. Anyone got any thoughts? I've had two ante-post bets - Leocorno, who now swerves the race, and Nashmiah EW at 70/1. She looks like she may go for the race but others look to hold stronger chances so gonna have a 'proper' look for the winner. The latest Oaks news is that Frankie's intended mount, Three Moons, is ducking the race after picking up an injury on the gallops. That is a shame as the 20/1 shot was closely matched with Midday on an old bit of form and was four times the price of the Cecil rival. Musidora winner Sariska has had an outing at Newmarket and pleased connections. She's the 11/4 fav now, ridden by Jamie Spencer. 11 runners are left in the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday We've got a thread for the Derby, but not yet for the Oaks, which is this Friday at Epsom. Anyone got any thoughts? I've had two ante-post bets - Leocorno, who now swerves the race, and Nashmiah EW at 70/1. She looks like she may go for the race but others look to hold stronger chances so gonna have a 'proper' look for the winner. The latest Oaks news is that Frankie's intended mount, Three Moons, is ducking the race after picking up an injury on the gallops. That is a shame as the 20/1 shot was closely matched with Midday on an old bit of form and was four times the price of the Cecil rival. Musidora winner Sariska has had an outing at Newmarket and pleased connections. She's the 11/4 fav now, ridden by Jamie Spencer. 11 runners are left in the race. I'm not sure Nashmiah will stay if I'm honest mate. Was looking for a big priced bet today as I believe Sariska is too short now. I don't like the Cheshire Oaks form or The Miniver Rose and Tottie so that leaves Midday Rainbow View Oh Goodness Me High Heeled Wadaat Probably take two of the last three and play E/W. Not 100% sure yet though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday I'm not sure Nashmiah will stay if I'm honest mate. Was looking for a big priced bet today as I believe Sariska is too short now. I don't like the Cheshire Oaks form or The Miniver Rose and Tottie so that leaves Midday Rainbow View Oh Goodness Me High Heeled Wadaat Probably take two of the last three and play E/W. Not 100% sure yet though. I like the look of Wadaat and thats the one I've used a free bet on. Think she is likely to stay judging by her recent second in the Italian Oaks, and I have been tabs of market movements over the past couple of days and there has been sustained support for her. This may have been since Neil Callan was booked (as Nashmiah's rider isn't yet down) or it may be that it has been put up by a tipster somewhere?? Will post my write up when done. Kind of agree about Nashmiah as a doubtful stayer - unproven beyond a mile and others are more likely to get 1m 4f on breeding, but took a chance the other day at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday I can't have Sariska either, far too short and I am not keen on Bell/Spencer. It has to be Midday for me. Looks to be improving all the time and romped home last time out. Comes from a yard with a great record in this aswell, that obviously being Henry Cecil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casey jones Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday THE OAKS Wide open classic in my view, hard to get any real angle on the best form lines in my opinion. SARISKA: Potentially the class act open to further improvement, however unproven at 12f and on an undulating track and more crucially on fast ground. At York everything suited a small field flat and decent ground, let’s not forget horses like Utmost Respect won on ground described as fast I strongly suspect it was good ground. Is she a worthy favourite at around 5/2 I think not. Looking at previous oaks winners such as Ouija board, Balanchine,& Oh So Sharp she has a way to go to warrant being so short in the betting. RAINBOW VIEW: Big John is a cad, he is having us in she doesn’t want fast ground, she wouldn’t have run if she wasn’t an odds favourite for 1000 Guineas. Firstly I can categorically say Gosden would never run a horse if he thought it was going to be detrimentally to her racing career. All of a sudden she’s an oaks filly, yet a few months ago she was going to the Breeders Cup juvenile as he thought she was so small she wouldn’t train on. I haven’t got a clue what to think about her right now all I know is she has it all to prove for me. Is she a 3/1 chance on what’s she achieved this year absolutely no! MIDDAY: Trained by the legendary Henry Cecil warrants respect proved over course and distance and looks sure to run some sort of race. However not held in the same regard as previous winners which is a slight concern. Does 4/1 reflect her chance is a bit tight for me she looks the solid each way one but I wouldn’t take any less than 5/1. PHILLIPINA; Did a sparkling piece of work on Saturday and is on the upgrade she is roughly the same filly as the Coolmore runner on the form book. Is that form good enough I am not sure but she comes from a top barn who have a knack with Fillies. I wouldn’t under estimate her but I wouldn’t be rushing to take 8/1 about a maiden. PERFECT TRUTH: Front runner very genuine and straight forward again this issue is the form does it stack up. Maybe the race will have to fall apart for her to prevail but she’s capable of making her presence felt. The yard are in a league of their own she may not be form the top draw but she wouldn’t be turning up for the fun of it. Around 10/1 she offers an option for in running players but that’s as far as I would go from a betting perspective. OH GOODNESS ME: Doesn’t want quick ground and looks to have to a mountain to climb on the book. Unless the ground changes dramatically and several under perform its hard to see her winning 16/1 wouldn’t interest me. HIGH HEELED; Look to be at her best with some cut has some bits of form that would give her a chance but she’s well held on York form with Sariska. But she’s not the worst 28/1 chance ive ever seen. As an each way shot she has a squeak. WADAAT; Good old Clive fancying a 66/1 shot early in the week. He has surprised with total rags in the past so it’s not inconceivable. But you would need to throw the form book out the window or start smoking some very strong drugs to make a case for her. But good luck to connections I am sure they will have a nice day out. NASHMIAH ; Another Clive runner up half mile in trip , anyone’s guess what will happen her relatives and pedigree suggest she’s a miler and probably there to help Wadaat cause. THE MINIVER ROSE: Similar chance to High Heeled and over priced at 50/1 could be the surprise packet as an each way option. Overall profile in an out but looks the one over priced and for small stakes could be worth a play. TOTTIE: Didn’t know the Italian playmaker was making the trip lol, Must be a social runner as the owner enjoy last year so much. I can’t see much chance of her pinching any black type but good luck. A complete over view of every runner, its wide open for me best outsiders look to be High Heeled & The Miniver Rose imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky-15 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday I can't have Sariska either, far too short and I am not keen on Bell/Spencer. It has to be Midday for me. Looks to be improving all the time and romped home last time out. Comes from a yard with a great record in this aswell, that obviously being Henry Cecil. I'm with you jack Midday really impressed LTO coming round that bend in the Trial looks like the one to beat with more improvment to come!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Fintron's Oaks Preview - 5th June 4.05 pm The third classic of the season, the Investec Oaks is open to three year old fillies only and is run over one and a half miles over the undulations of Epsom. Last years race threw up a surprise winner when Ralph Beckett's Look Here was allowed to go off at 33/1 and ran away with the race on what was only her third career start. The Hernando filly had won a Salisbury maiden over a mile on her debut and only start at two, and although she had finished second in an Oaks trial at Lingfield on her reappearance, she didn't get the run of the race and stayed on to suggest she would infact appreciate the step up in trip. Prior to 2008, winners were sent off at much shorter prices. 2007 winner Light Shift won at 13/2 and in the two preceding years Alexandrova (9/4 fav) and Unfuwain (11/4 jt fav) were also fairly short, so it seems sensible to consider form more than the market when picking a selection. One trend common to most recent winners is that they had already earned some black type. For example, Look Here had placed in a listed race before the Oaks, Light Shift had won the Cheshire Oaks (listed) last time out, Alexandrova had finished a short head second in Group 1 company at Newmarket and 2005 winner Eswarah had previously hacked up in a listed race at Newbury. Taking this into account leads me to dismiss High Heeled, who was beaten into fourth in the Musidora and has not won beyond conditions level yet, and that reduces the field to ten remaining runners. Although we are not yet certain of the going the ground is currently described as good. No rain is anticipated until later in the week, and I think several runners will be praying that it materialises to enhance their chances. 1,000 Guineas favourite Rainbow View shaped as though she needed further when beaten into fifth at Newmarket but trainer John Gosden excused that defeat on the basis of fast ground, and unless the heaven's open, perhaps others look better equipped to deal with potentially quicker ground. Oh Goodness Me is a Group 3 winner at home and placed in Group 1 company at the Curragh last time out, but all of her best bits of form have come with some sort of cut, so again, I'm passing over. The Minniver Rose's sole win came on soft and although she has placed form on faster ground and probably will handle any going at Epsom, she has been well held in a couple of listed events. She probably will appreciate the step up in trip but others appeal more. Musidora second Alexandrova won the Oaks the same year, and that race may prove a good sign for Sariska, who stayed on strongly to win race at York recently. However, for what she beat, I think the current price is a little too short and she runs for a trainer/jockey combination that I never seem to do well with. Midday won impressively in an Oaks trial at Lingfield, a race in which Look Here was second in last year, and got the job done in fine style. Prior to that she had finished second to Derby hopeful Debussy at Epsom, and she looks as if she will stay the trip. Trainer Henry Cecil has won this race an amazing eight times and bold bid looks expected. Nashmiah won a listed race at York last time out, atoning for a disappointing 9th in the 1,000 Guineas at the start of last month. However, she was found to have a blind abscess that day and so things may not have been as black and white as they looked. Although she is proven up to a mile, she isn't certain to get the trip on breeding and that may be her downfall, for all she is a nice price bearing in mind her listed level win. Perfect Truth is the Ballydoyle representative and won at Chester last time out, making all to win the listed Cheshire Oaks. However, Sir Michael Stoute's Phillipina was breathing down her next and was only narrowly defeated, and will be hoping to reverse that form over this longer trip. Tottie was third behind Midday in the Lingfield Oaks trial and has plenty of work to do to reverse that form but another one of the outsiders, Wadaat, looks interesting. Her breeding wouldn't necessarily point to her as a middle distance horse at first glance but she is related to a 1m 1f winner and her dam is related to a 1m 2f winner. She also ran a very respectable race in the Group 2 Italian Oaks recently, beaten by just a nose in that 1m 3f contest, to suggest she is better than her official rating suggests. She had previously disappointed in the Oaks trial behind Midday and Tottie at Lingfield but after her last outing may be worth another go. In the end, although I do respect Midday, I've decided to go each-way on Wadaat in the hope of landing a place. I've actually backed this at 33/1 because I had a free bet through Paddypower, but 40/1 is still available with Tote, whose each-way terms are 1/4 odds on three places. There has been sustained support for this one over the past couple of days and with Neil Callan booked for Clive Brittain I think they will expect a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday WADAAT; Good old Clive fancying a 66/1 shot early in the week. He has surprised with total rags in the past so it’s not inconceivable. But you would need to throw the form book out the window or start smoking some very strong drugs to make a case for her. But good luck to connections I am sure they will have a nice day out. Thats a bit of a strong statement to make isn't it? I mean, there are only 11 runners and if you look at the RPR she comes out third behind Rainbow View and Sariska so its hardly like a Maidstone Mixture type horse turning up. I would go so far to say as saying her second in the Italian Oaks is a much stronger pieces of form than anything The Minniver Rose has acheived given she has been well held at listed level and the Brittain filly was narrowly beaten in a Group 2, albeit if it may be weaker than a UK Grp 2. That said, I enjoyed reading your post, it was well put together and thought out, good luck with the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blair Boy Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Providing the Ground does not firm up it will be hard to look past Rainbow View who it has been said hated the ground at Newmarket LTO putting an end to her unbeaten form. Although I shall wait nearer Friday before making any final decisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Rainbow View for me. I think she's a truly class act. I know Gosden got slated for it after the race, but it was clear for all to see that she hated the ground at Newmarket in the Guineas. I think Friday will be the day she returns to the lips of the horse racing nation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday i fancy a little bit of e/way on waddat the diktat filly made amends for a flop in the lingfield oaks trial with a cracking effort in the italian oaks at san siro,where she lost out by a nose to night of magic with the rest of the the 18 strong field well strung out behind the race was run at fast pace and the form looks rock solid,i think this filly as been massively underestimated, her trainer [c-brittain]knows a thing or two about handling the careers of good fillies and won the oaks with user friendly in 1992,therefore its a common misception that the veteran handler tilts at windmills and this highly progressive filly as i said before has been massively underestimated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casey jones Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Thats a bit of a strong statement to make isn't it? I mean' date=' there are only 11 runners and if you look at the RPR she comes out third behind Rainbow View and Sariska so its hardly like a Maidstone Mixture type horse turning up. I would go so far to say as saying her second in the Italian Oaks is a much stronger pieces of form than anything The Minniver Rose has acheived given she has been well held at listed level and the Brittain filly was narrowly beaten in a Group 2, albeit if it may be weaker than a UK Grp 2. That said, I enjoyed reading your post, it was well put together and thought out, good luck with the bet.[/quote'] To be fair the Itailian Oaks is such a low grade race nowadys anything with Listed albilty would proably take part. If you hadnt noticed Clive fancies everything he runs, and while the Bookmakers often take him with a pinch of salt and tend to over price his runners its mainly becuase he strikes every pancake tuesday with Group One winners. As i have pointed out the front two are far from bomb proof, so punters are searching for value the drying ground is against both of the front two plus they both have quetsions to answer. I am moving towards laying the front two at the prices as i think theres a strong chance of getting both of them beat. Good luck with Wadaat but shes not for me even if she was 66/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Does anyone else think the Stoute thing is a ridiculous price? Is this the worse 5/1 shot ever for a classic? Has a maiden ever been so short? Has a maiden evert won a classic? Dragon Dancer went close but cannot remember any others running that well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Does anyone else think the Stoute thing is a ridiculous price? Is this the worse 5/1 shot ever for a classic? Has a maiden ever been so short? Has a maiden evert won a classic? Dragon Dancer went close but cannot remember any others running that well. I agree, its too short for me too. After its last run even the RP said it was doubtful she'd go for the Oaks, so she must have been showing plenty at home? Or was she the yards main hope all along and they are keeping the entry for the sake of doing so? Is this ground - good (good to firm in places) gonna be too quick for Rainbow View? Will Jamie Spencer ride a stinker on the jolly? Of the three at the head of the market Midday has to be the bet surely? Hacked up in the Lingfield trial, proven she handles a sharp track, is open to plenty more improvement, and trained by Oaks legend Henry Cecil. Not backed that one though, sticking with Wadaat as I think one of the outsiders will sneak a place and don't think any of them are rock solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday finished up for the night after a trip to Coral so invested a 1 pt double on Midday and Fame And Glory. I'd be delighted if just one came in to be honest but what the hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Does anyone else think the Stoute thing is a ridiculous price? Is this the worse 5/1 shot ever for a classic? Has a maiden ever been so short? Has a maiden evert won a classic? Dragon Dancer went close but cannot remember any others running that well. ----------------------- Sun Princess was last maiden to win Oaks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Oaks 4.05 Sariska to skate in--even "Frank" cant mess this up[well hopefully] Been backing her since the Fred Darling 16/1,12/1,9/1 on Musidora day,plenty of 5/1s,where she ran a tremendous race to finish 4th[after bad interferance just after the 2furlong pole,and Spencer gave her an easy from then on]eating up ground hand over fist in the final furlong over distance 7f which was to short . The form of F/Darling is solid,winner finished 2nd Irish Guiness,2nd finished 3rd 1,ooo Guiness---WITH A BETTER RIDE Sariska would have won this race. M Bell then chose not to run in Guiness[blessing as ground was really fast]and go for Musidora then onto Oaks In the Musidora she showed how good she was--running away with the race,there have been doubts stressed about her seeing out the Oaks distance.No worries on my part,the way she finished the York race[final furlong] was impressive,striding out powerfully to the line--will definetly stay. Could not believe price's offerered after this race 5/1,and i believe if trained by Cecil,Stoute,O'Brian she woulda been a 7/4 shot[my view] In my view there is only 1 posible danger to Sariska winning this by a street--RainbowView --she was an awesome 2yr old filly,but there are to many doubts[temprement,wither she's trained on]. On what i've seen this year Sariska's the 1,[and have backed her accordingly and fully expect to be loaded after the race],and turn out to be as good a filly as PeepingFawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Between Sariska and Perfect Truth this for me. Perfect Truth is my main fancy. I don't think she's been the credit she deserves for her Chester win, and Murtagh won't pour it on quite as early this time I don't think. She's by Galileo, dual Derby winner, champion sire of 2008, sire of last year's Derby winner, and a half sister to Endless Power - a respectable ~140 rated animal over the obstacles at up to 2m6f - so there's every reason to believe she can improve again for the step up to 12f. Sariska's Musidora win impressed me most, visually, out of all the trial performances, but there's a nagging stamina doubt about this one being a daughter of Pivotal that I just can't shake - despite that performance. Similar to Midday, who is by Oasis Dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday You know what, I just cant for the life of me figure this race out: Sariska was very impressive last time over 1m 2f, and will improve for the step up to 1m 4f. Midday won the Derby Trial in fine style, handles Epsom and is guaranteed to stay. Perfect Truth is very imteresting. On the clock, that Chester race is the best trial of the year for the Oaks, and that would put Perfect Truth and Phillipina in with big shouts here. However, I cant quite believe that figure - is it really concievable that the bunch of maidens in that race could record such a good speed figure. To be fair, it wasnt as if a pacemaker ensured it would be a quick time as Perfect Truth was the front runner and she won - was that a better performance than we are giving her credit for ? The race entries before that, however, suggest she isnt that great. Same can to for Phillipina - One tremendous race rating, but poor form previously. One thing is for sure, IF that Chester race is as good as the time suggests, the race will be between Phillipina and Perfect Truth. However, I suspect it isnt and the likely improvement from Sariska over 1m 4f and the class of Midday make this race near impossible for me. Another to chuck into the mix could be Tottie - Only finished half a length behind Midday as a 2 year old. She was well beaten by the same horse in the Derby Trial, but that was Tottie's seasonal debut - lets say she wasnt fit. If that was the case, she would come on a lot for that run and shouldnt be such a big price. Amanda Perrett wouldnt enter her here if she didnt think she could win. Actually, Tottie will definitely be my bet. Currently 180 to win on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Does anyone think it would be worth backing High Heeled, The Miniver Rose, Tottie and Wadaat E/W. Was thinking of putting a few quid on each of them as the main contenders seem so well matched to me. Worth doing it or better of backing a favourite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday He gets slated plenty, but kudos to Frank for a good ride on Sariska there :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday 1.08 available to back the winner after it's already won!!! :loon amazing, no way it will lose the race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 5, 2009 Author Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday aye well done Frank. When she picked up it was a 'wow' moment, but to be fair, Midday really made them work all the way to the line after, so nearly another Oaks success for Henry Cecil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday wot a ride??? This is going to 1 of the greats---in my view Any horse that can make a move that far out--and keep it up till the line--is 1 good horse. Many folk will crab this result--but time will tell how good Sariska is 1 of my best days racing--backed her solidilly since F/Darling,and even bet more today after seeing opening price7/2 WOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: The Oaks - this Friday Whats the good Kudos for Frank?? He was on best horse and made it hard work Midday is not within 5l of Sariska--and time will prove me right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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