RussP Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 5.15 Newmarket Expecting to see 11 runners for this Class 5, 1m handicap at HQ. Looking at these individually, I'm opposing Indian Skipper as it is an example of a horse raised in mark without winning. Up 2lb for a 2L 2nd lto, will need to step up and I think this mark is too high. Similar comments apply to Driven, raised in mark for a 2nd lto but the horse is on the upgrade and probably justifies favouritism. However, the rise in weights makes it an opposable fav at around 11/4. Grand Vizier has claims if fully wound up ans won first time up last term but 6/1 RPF is plenty short enough after 7 months off. Sonny Parkin is better on the July course, makes its seasonal reappearance and doesn't look particularly well handicapped. Thunder Gorge may be better on an easier surface and has a poor strike rate, shown nothing so far this term either. Charlevoix won lto and has a great record on quick ground so is a real danger but again, I'd prefer to seek out some EW value, it certainly looks one for the placepot. Bahiano also has claims off this mark but suggestion the downgrade has firmly kicked in and I think price will be a little prohibitive with Ryan Moore on board. Steig is poorly handicapped and will struggle here whilst the other 2 looks outclassed. This leaves us with one at a very tempting double figure price in: Marning Star (RPF 12/1) - Consistent type and still quite lightly raced so I think there is improvement to be had from this horse. Seems to have ideal conditions for the race with class, mark, trip and going all looking ideal for the first time in quite a while. Since winning in a Class 4 at Haydock last summer off a 4lb higher mark, has failed to get its head in front but with valid excuses. Finished 3rd nto off 79 (8lb higher than today) but 3 of the 6 went off at a furious pace and it was almost certain something from behind would take the event, and followed that up with a poor run off the same mark when the ground was heavy and clearly didn't suit. Came back in Jan and had 2 runs on the AW followed by a run on turf where, each time, the trip was too far and the horse didn't get home. Has been dropped a grade as well as 4lb for the run and, with a 2f less trip also strongly in its favour, this is no way at 12/1 shot in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAGS is BENT Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 pretty unoriginal....,but TRYST could be far better than a 87 rated handicapper. STOUTEY excells in improving older horses,this 7f handicap is full of old exposed types,with TRYST being the glaring exception!!!,a mark of 87 on what it has achieved in 2 runs so far seems fair enough,but i will be staggered if this 4yo horse doesnt have bundles of improvement to come!!! the 15/8 with PADDY POWER wont last long!!!!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 4.05 Newmarket Tryst looks a good thing in this but his domination of the market at cramped odds means Hussle could be an alternative bet for a place. A course and distance winner last time out in this grade, he runs under a penalty here for that dead heat win as a consequence, but all three of his career wins have come over 7f - the trip he tackles here. A former Richard Hannon horse, he made his debut for Gay Kelleway earlier in the year and his latest win was his first success for his new yard. However, he had ran well previous to that at Folkestone when running on but not enjoying a clear run. 7f on Gd/Frm ground seems to bring out the best in him and as he holds a fitness advantage over a couple of these, I think he may be able to land a place. 12 pts TBP @ 2.38 (Betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 pretty unoriginal....,but TRYST could be far better than a 87 rated handicapper. STOUTEY excells in improving older horses,this 7f handicap is full of old exposed types,with TRYST being the glaring exception!!!,a mark of 87 on what it has achieved in 2 runs so far seems fair enough,but i will be staggered if this 4yo horse doesnt have bundles of improvement to come!!! the 15/8 with PADDY POWER wont last long!!!!:ok Great price for that one mate, been backed into odds on this morning. It was even 5/2 at one point last night I think. :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 4.05 Newmarket Agree with Bagsisbent above, Tryst has the potential to be better than an 87-rated handicapper and keeping faith with him after his win in a Lingfield maiden at the start of the month. The yard are in good form and after just two starts this one could have plenty more to offer. 4/5, 3 pts win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 Remember this.... http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/set-your-sky-boxes-84065/[url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/set-your-sky-boxes-84065/] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpit Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 Hi guys,looks like iam going against a few today by laying Tryst 4.05pm. For me its all to easy that this wins but i have my doubts about this horse and the odds are very low infact they are no value imv if backing now,i think this will win 100% so iam laying. Race Thread lays /1 day = 2.00pts- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 2.55 SPECIAL RESERVE It's that Hannon & Hughes partnership again & looks a good opportunity for this to follow up its win LTO. Rest of the field are either coming from a poor run lto or not run for a fair while. Currently around 5/2 (BOG) - looks a best bet of the day to me? I just can't see anything else getting ahead of my selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 5.15 Newmarket Driven has been in good form this season since being gelded and won going away on fast ground at Brighton last month. Running under a penalty he was beaten by just three quarters of a length by Pha Mai Blue last time out at Lingfield, and despite a further 2 lb rise in his rating, he seems to be going the right way. He ran at the track in his juvenile days and was an encouraging 4th over shorter, staying on inside the final furlong over that 7f trip. He has since proven himself over today's trip of a mile and I think he can make the frame here. TBP 2.22 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 Hi guys,looks like iam going against a few today by laying Tryst 4.05pm. For me its all to easy that this wins but i have my doubts about this horse and the odds are very low infact they are no value imv if backing now,i think this will win 100% so iam laying. Race Thread lays /1 day = 2.00pts- good lay in the end zero :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpit Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Newmarket 22/05 Thanks very much :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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